30 September 2024 | 1:20AM HKT For the exclusive use of ACCOUNTS@KARUNADUCABS.COM 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 Navigating China Internet Lifting eCommerce on room for further re-rating; refreshing mega-cap TPs and our top ideas We lift our preference for eCommerce to within our top-two most-preferred sub-sectors alongside games (Tencent, on CL) within China Internet on the back of stronger-than-expected government pro-growth/easing policies, signs of a normalizing eCommerce market landscape where incumb ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a price forecast for Brent crude oil in the range of $70-85, with a specific forecast of $74 per barrel by December 2025 [13][14]. Core Insights - Oil prices have decreased by approximately 3% over the past week, attributed to limited geopolitical risk premiums and expectations of increased oil supply from Libya and Saudi Arabia [2][6]. - The market is transitioning from a short-term equilibrium supported by OPEC to a long-term strategy focused on managing non-OPEC supply and maintaining OPEC cohesion [9][13]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production gradually starting in December, with Saudi crude production projected to rise from just under 9.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just over 9.2 mb/d [13][14]. Summary by Sections OPEC Supply and Price Forecast - The report anticipates three months of production increases from OPEC+, with an overall annual average supply increase of 0.6 mb/d for OPEC and 0.1 mb/d for Russia in 2025 [13][14]. - High spare capacity skews risks to the downside for price forecasts, with Brent potentially falling to the low $60s if OPEC fully reverses voluntary cuts [3][14]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices remains limited due to high spare capacity and the absence of significant supply disruptions from the Middle East [7][9]. - Recent developments in Libya suggest a potential recovery in oil production, aligning with the report's expectations [7][9]. China Demand Forecast - The report projects a modest increase in China’s oil demand by 0.2 mb/d in 2025, reaching 16.4 mb/d, with limited upside risks due to economic uncertainties and the potential for increased non-oil alternatives [3][28]. - The nowcast for China’s oil demand is slightly below previous forecasts, reflecting cautious optimism regarding economic growth and stimulus measures [28].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, particularly favoring港股 over A股 due to stronger earnings revisions and more attractive valuations [20][22] Core Views - The policy stimulus package, while not sufficient to fundamentally reverse the market situation, is expected to drive a short-term policy-driven rebound [5][20] - The real estate market remains a critical issue, and until it stabilizes, Chinese stocks are likely to remain short-term trading targets [5][25] - The government's focus on growth and the market is evident, with measures aimed at stabilizing the stock market and boosting investor confidence [17][20] Policy Measures Summary - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately RMB 1 trillion in long-term liquidity, and hinted at further rate cuts by the end of the year [9][10] - **Property Market**: Measures include lowering the minimum downpayment ratio for second-home buyers to 15%, reducing existing mortgage rates by 50bps, and introducing a RMB 300 billion relending program to support local governments in purchasing existing housing inventory [10][13] - **Equity Market**: The PBOC introduced a RMB 500 billion liquidity provision program for non-bank financial institutions and a RMB 300 billion relending program to support listed companies' share buybacks [8][13] Market Impact - The policy measures have led to a positive market reaction, with the恒生国企指数 and沪深300指数 rising by 5% and 4% respectively [3][8] - The potential establishment of a government-backed stabilization fund could further support the market, with historical data suggesting such interventions can effectively boost short-term returns [4][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment is conducive to a short-term rebound, with valuations and investor positioning at or near cyclical lows [22][23] Key Investment Themes - **Shareholder Returns**: The focus on shareholder returns and long-term capital is unprecedented, making the股东回报投资组合 an attractive option for investors seeking short-term outperformance or long-term exposure [23][25] - **Real Estate Market**: The effectiveness of housing policies will be crucial in determining the sustainability of any market rebound, with further policy support and government funding likely needed to address the significant inventory overhang [25][26]

12 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT Global Technology: Semiconductors - Memory Key Takeaways from the FMS Conference and Recent Industry Checks; Reiterate Constructive View on Memory We attended the FMS (Future of Memory and Storage) conference in Santa Clara, CA on August 6-8. Please see our full note for a summary of the key take from aways our meetings as well as updated thoughts on Buy-rated Micron, SK Hynix (on Conviction List) and Samsung Electronics. PM Summary We attended the FMS (Future of Memory and Stora ...

7 August 2024 | 4:00PM HKT China: Import growth surprised to the upside in July Bottom line: 1. In year-over-year terms, China's export growth moderated in July – exports rose Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | a ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 27 [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for home appliance microcontrollers (MCUs) is expected to drive revenue growth, with a projected revenue of RMB 3.83 billion for Q2, reflecting a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 13% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from structural growth opportunities as it penetrates the smartphone market with AMOLED display driver chips, alongside the expected recovery in home appliance MCU demand [7]. - The report indicates that the recent policy encouraging the replacement of old appliances is favorable for the company, given that over 30% of its revenue is derived from the white goods market [2][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2024, the revenue forecast has been adjusted downwards by up to 9%, with net profit forecasts reduced by up to 6% due to slower commercialization of new products and lower-than-expected actual expenditures [2]. - The new revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.499 billion, RMB 1.982 billion, and RMB 2.371 billion respectively, compared to previous estimates of RMB 1.514 billion, RMB 2.133 billion, and RMB 2.607 billion [5]. - Gross profit margins are expected to improve in the second half of 2024, with a gross margin forecast of 36.8% for 2024, 41.9% for 2025, and 42.8% for 2026 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the recovery in home appliance MCU demand and the launch of new products in the automotive and smartphone sectors are key drivers for the company's growth [7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market for home appliance MCUs and battery management integrated circuits (BMICs) [5][7].