Investment Rating - The report highlights a Buy rating for BRX, which is included on the US Conviction List [11][14]. Core Insights - The retail sector, particularly shopping centers, is experiencing a positive outlook due to strong consumer demand and limited new supply, leading to record occupancy rates and solid pricing [1][5]. - The high-end consumer remains robust, with traffic in grocer-anchored centers up by 8.7% year-over-year in August, while lower-end consumers are trading down, affecting discretionary spending [2][3]. - Retailer bankruptcies are expected to increase in 2025, providing opportunities for landlords to capitalize on mark-to-market opportunities [6]. - Transaction volumes are anticipated to rise, with cap rates likely to compress slightly, driven by renewed interest from investors [7][9]. - Debt financing conditions are improving, with various lenders active in the retail space, although regional banks remain limited [10]. Summary by Sections Consumer Trends - High-end consumer traffic is strong, with an 8.7% increase year-over-year in August, while lower-end consumers are focusing on essentials and trading down to discount retailers [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Continued favorable supply and demand conditions are leading to record occupancy rates and potential for stronger same-store NOI growth in 2025, with net effective rent growth close to 5% [5]. Retailer Bankruptcies - An increase in retailer bankruptcies is expected in 2025, which may allow landlords to improve asset quality through acquisitions of vacated stores [6]. Transaction Market - Transaction volumes are projected to increase, with cap rates expected to stabilize or compress, particularly for grocery-anchored centers [7][9]. Financing Environment - Debt financing is becoming more accessible, with LifeCos financing high-quality assets at 55-60% LTV, while CMBS spreads are around 200 basis points [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates strong demand for equities, particularly in mainland China, and robust demand for bonds, suggesting a positive investment outlook for these markets [1][2]. Core Insights - Global equity funds experienced significant inflows of $40 billion in the week ending October 9, compared to $5 billion in the previous week, with mainland China equity funds leading the inflows at over 6% of total AUM [1][2]. - Inflows into global fixed income funds were also strong, totaling $18 billion, with a preference for short-duration bonds over long-duration [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable preference for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) in cross-border FX flows [2][8]. Summary by Sections Equity Flows - Total equity inflows reached $108.6 billion, with a 4-week average of 0.13% of AUM [3][6]. - Mainland China equity funds saw inflows of $61.7 billion, representing 2.77% of AUM [6]. - Technology sector funds attracted the largest inflows, totaling $6.15 billion [6]. Fixed Income Flows - Total fixed income inflows amounted to $61.7 billion, with a 4-week average of 0.19% of AUM [3][6]. - Emerging market (EM) bonds saw inflows of $2.76 billion, with a preference for hard currency bonds [6]. Money Market and FX Flows - Money market fund assets increased by $17 billion, indicating a growing preference for liquidity [2][6]. - Total FX flows reached $57.6 billion, with significant inflows into the CNY [8].

11 October 2024 | 1:23PM EDT Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Stands Out During Earnings Preview Season? | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | Neil Mehta +1(212)357-4042 \| neil.mehta@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | | Brian Lee, CFA +1(917)343-3110 \| brian.k.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC | | John Mackay +1(212)357-5379 \| john.mackay@gs.com | | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Carly Davenport | | +1(212)357-1914 \| carly.davenpor ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and raises the 12-month price target to $150, reflecting an 11.3% upside from the current price of $134.81 [2][3]. Core Insights - Nvidia's competitive advantage is bolstered by a large installed base, innovative capabilities at both chip and data center levels, and a robust software ecosystem [14]. - The complexity of Inference workloads is increasing, leading to higher compute demand, which Nvidia is well-positioned to capture as it approaches nearly 50% of the company's Data Center revenue [13]. - The introduction of Blackwell architecture is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with several billion dollars anticipated in the upcoming quarters [12]. - Nvidia's forward visibility in its Data Center business is strong, with engagements extending to its public product roadmap through 2027 [15]. - The company anticipates tight supply conditions to persist, despite efforts from partners to support growth [16]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Estimates - FY2025 revenue estimates are increased by 1%, FY2026 and FY2027 estimates are raised by 7% each, reflecting higher cloud capex and robust order trends [18]. - Updated non-GAAP EPS estimates for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are $2.97, $4.63, and $5.54, respectively, which are above Street consensus by 4%, 14%, and 14% [18]. Financial Metrics - Total revenue growth is projected at 125.9% for FY2024, with EBITDA growth at 345.7% and EPS growth at 413.1% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 73.5% to 75.4% over the forecast period [22]. Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's management emphasizes that while ASICs have a role in data centers, they do not pose a direct threat to Nvidia's GPUs due to the latter's agility and extensive installed base [14]. - The company is focusing on emerging opportunities in Sovereign AI, autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robots as future growth drivers [17]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a projected 14% year-over-year increase in cloud capex for CY2025, indicating a favorable environment for Nvidia's growth [21].

Investment Rating - The report raises the investment rating for China to Overweight across Asia stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the region [3]. Core Insights - The US growth outlook has improved, with a reduced probability of recession to 15% over the next 12 months, supported by employment levels, consumer engagement, and subdued inflation [2]. - The S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2025 has been increased to $268, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, with a new 12-month target of 6300 for the index [2]. - In China, consumption trends during the Golden Week exceeded expectations, indicating potential for recovery in consumer spending [6]. - The semiconductor sector in China is expected to see long-term revenue growth driven by rising demand for localized semiconductors [6]. - The report highlights opportunities in the solar industry, predicting a price rebound of 5%-10% across the value chain by 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Macro Issues - The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates to a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% by June 2025, with smaller cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings [2]. - The dovish pivot from the Fed has increased risk appetite, with expectations for carry-driven returns in credit markets [2]. Sector Analysis - The Chinese jewelry market is facing challenges due to a shrinking population and a shift in consumer preferences from goods to experiences [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for bond buying opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Mexico [3]. Regional Focus - In Europe, the labor market is forecasted to stagnate, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 6.7% by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report notes that powerful rallies can occur in China even during prolonged bear markets, suggesting resilience in the equity market [3]. Company-Specific Insights - The report identifies several companies with strong growth potential, including Barclays, Lonza Group, Builders FirstSource, and Sabesp, all rated as Buy [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the iron ore industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to potential price corrections unless end demand increases. Core Insights - Iron ore prices have retreated by 5% from a three-month high, currently at $104/t, but are still 17% higher than before China's monetary stimulus announcement on September 24 [1][2] - Iron ore consumption has increased by 6% since the end of August as steel mills ramp up production in response to rising steel margins, with most Chinese steel mills now profitable for the first time since June [1][2][4] - The market is currently pricing in an increase in steel demand that may not be supported by current stimulus measures, making prices vulnerable to further declines if demand does not improve [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Iron Ore Price Dynamics - The 62%Fe benchmark index for iron ore is currently at $104/t, down 5% from a recent high, but still significantly higher than pre-stimulus levels [1][2] - The active SGX iron ore contract closed at $105/t, reflecting a 10% drop in response to disappointing market expectations following the NDRC's press conference [2][4] Consumption and Supply Trends - Iron ore consumption has risen by 6% since late August, driven by increased hot metal output from steel mills responding to improved margins [1][4] - Despite increased consumption, iron ore port stocks are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation as arrivals into China have surged [2][6] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is awaiting further stimulus announcements, which could provide short-term support for iron ore and steel prices [3][5] - Without a significant increase in end demand for steel, iron ore prices are at risk of correction, as current supply dynamics do not justify the elevated price levels [6][8]

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Investment Ratings - Ajinomoto: Buy, ¥5,816 [14] - Asahi Group: Buy, ¥1,797 [14] - Kao: Neutral, ¥6,901 [14] - Kikkoman: Neutral, ¥1,675 [14] - Nissin Foods Holdings: Buy, ¥4,111 [14] - Rohto Pharmaceutical: Buy, ¥3,564 [14] - Shiseido: Neutral, ¥3,690 [14] - Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd.: Buy, ¥5,249 [14] - Toyo Suisan Kaisha: Buy, ¥9,202 [14] - Unicharm: Buy, ¥5,048 [14] - Yamazaki Baking: Buy, ¥2,821 [14] Core Insights - Strong interest from investors in Japanese consumer products, particularly in beverage and food sectors, with notable mentions of Asahi Group and Suntory Beverage & Food [1][2] - Investors expressed a bullish outlook on Suntory Beverage & Food, expecting double-digit operating profit growth due to recent beverage price hikes [2] - Concerns were raised regarding Asahi's sales trends and lack of catalysts, although its stable profit growth and shareholder returns were viewed positively [2] - Ajinomoto is anticipated to show stronger year-on-year profit growth, while Kikkoman's medium-term growth prospects have improved despite exchange rate concerns [3][6] - Instant noodle makers Nissin Foods and Toyo Suisan are facing challenges in the US market but are considered undervalued by some investors [5] - In the cosmetics sector, Shiseido faces pessimism, with investors wary of share price volatility due to speculation about Chinese economic measures [5][6] Beverage Sector Summary - Overall market trends indicate a 22% year-on-year decline in beer-type product volume, while soft drink volume decreased by 5% [7] - Asahi Group and Kirin Holdings experienced slightly below-market growth in beer-type sales, but Kirin's standard beer volume grew by double digits, aided by new product launches [7] - Suntory Beverage & Food's soft drink sales volume was down 8% year-on-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the China real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of fiscal stimulus in the near term [1][3]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has committed to accelerating urban renewal investments, with a focus on infrastructure projects, including a significant Rmb4 trillion budget for underground pipeline construction over the next five years [1][3]. - The NDRC aims to stabilize the property market through a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures, including inventory management and adjustments to housing policy regulations [1][3]. - The report highlights the necessity of fiscal stimulus as a key factor influencing the housing market's recovery in the coming weeks [1][3]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal Investment - The NDRC plans to front-load Rmb200 billion in investment projects by the end of October 2024, with a total of Rmb4 trillion earmarked for urban renewal infrastructure over the next five years [3][4]. - The focus will be on critical construction projects that align with national strategies, particularly the development of an urban underground pipeline network [3][4]. Housing Market Stabilization - On the supply side, the NDRC will implement strict controls on new housing supply and optimize existing inventory, with an estimated Rmb30 trillion of unsold residential inventory by the end of 2023 [1][3]. - Demand-side measures include further adjustments to housing policy regulations to stimulate both rigid and upgrade demand for housing, alongside interest rate cuts for existing mortgages [1][3]. New-Type Urbanization - The report discusses the goal of achieving 70% urbanization by 2029, with specific measures to facilitate the urbanization of over 170 million migrant workers and their families [4][5]. - The NDRC is committed to enhancing urban facility capacity and industrial foundations in counties, which account for a significant portion of China's GDP and population [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating on both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, with Hynix being on the APAC Conviction List [2][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Korean memory suppliers, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, are expected to experience stronger growth in 3Q24 in terms of average selling price (ASP) and bit shipment compared to Nanya Technology, primarily due to a higher mix of high-end products like HBM and DDR5 [2][3]. - Nanya Technology reported a mid-single-digit percentage increase in ASP for 3Q24, while its bit shipment decreased by low-twenties percent. In contrast, Hynix and SEC are expected to see DRAM ASP growth of 12% and 9%, respectively, with bit shipment growth of +2% and -2% [2][3]. - The pricing outlook for 4Q24 is challenging for Nanya, as it anticipates minimal contribution from DDR5, while Hynix and SEC are expected to see blended DRAM ASP growth of 9% and 6%, respectively, due to continued improvement in product mix towards HBM and DDR5 [2][3]. - Nanya has lowered its capital expenditure guidance for the year from NT$26 billion to NT$20 billion, representing a ~3% decline from peak levels in 2022. In contrast, DRAM capex for Hynix and SEC is expected to grow year-over-year, primarily focused on HBM capacity and fab construction [2][3]. Summary by Sections Nanya Technology Performance - Nanya's 3Q24 ASP increased by mid-single-digit percentage quarter-over-quarter, while bit shipment decreased by low-twenties percent [2]. - The company faces challenges in 4Q24 due to minimal DDR5 output and elevated inventory levels in the DDR3&4 market [2][3]. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Outlook - Hynix and SEC are positioned to benefit from stronger demand for high-end products, with expected ASP growth of 12% and 9% for Hynix and SEC, respectively, in 3Q24 [2][3]. - Both companies are expected to see solid pricing growth in 4Q24, driven by a favorable product mix towards HBM and DDR5 [2][3]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Nanya has significantly reduced its capex guidance for the year, while Hynix and SEC are expected to increase their DRAM capex, focusing on HBM and fab construction [2][3].