众号: 永木纪要 18 October 2024 | 1:05PM HKT China: 70-city average property price decline accelerated in September | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: The National Bureau of Statistics' 70-city house price data suggests the weighted | | | average property price in the ...

关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 12:41AM HKT Proya Cosmetics (603605.ss) Earnings review: 3Q24 Sales/NI inline but lower OP on ROI pressure; Lower 4Q outlook reflecting disciplined Double 11 Mof 603605.SS 12m Price Target: Rmb107.50 Price: Rmb99.00 Upside: 8.6% Proya reported 3Q24 revenue/NI growth of 21%/21% yoy, in line, a with market consensus, but same as previous two quarters; OP came in 13% below with a 4.7ppt contraction in GPM-Selling expenses ratio due to elevated ROI pressure including increasing KOL ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

关注公众号: 永木纪要 21 October 2024 | 10:57PM HKT | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | We refreshed our global PC TAMs to 1) factor in the latest forecasts for key suppliers including HPQ, Dell, Apple, Asus, Lenovo, Samsung, LG, Xiaom ...

24 October 2024 | 1:43PM EDT in Japan to 49.3. 众号: 永木纪要 Global PMI Monitor: Manufacturing Output Expectations Improve in the US, Decline Elsewhere (Dong) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | DM trends: □ The DM composite flash PMI fell by -0.3pt in October to 51.8; the | | | | | manufacturing component rose by +0.3pt to 47.6 and the services component fell by -0.6pt to 52.7. | | ...

20 October 2024 | 9:29PM EDT certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 公众号: 永木纪要 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | The Impact of Hurricanes: A Roadmap for Upcoming Data | | | | | | | | | +1(212)357-2619 | | | oldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | | | ronnie walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1 ...

公众号: 永木纪要 24 October 2024 | 8:44PM JST Japan Technology: Semiconductor Capital Equipment: September SEAJ data: Demand outside of mainland China likely recovering Jul-Sep sales up 23% yoy; non-China likely recovering According to preliminary September 2024 data released after the October 24 close by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ), monthly sales of Japanese semiconductor production equipment in July-September 2024 axepraged ¥369.6 bn, an increase of 23% yoy (+7% qoq). While regional b ...

18 October 2024 | 10:34AM EDT US Equity Views Introducing our 2025 S&P 500 use of cash forecasts ■ We forecast S&P 500 cash spending will accelerate from +8% in 2024 to +11% in 2025. Using our macro models, we update our forecasts for S&P 500 capex) ‍ R&D, buybacks, dividends, and cash M&A and introduce 2025 forrecasts. Strong earnings growth will drive strong cash spending groﮨﺮﺯﻟﮩﺪ : ടീ ■ The largest stocks have been boosting aggregate cash spending, but we expect a broadening in 2025. S&P 500 cash spendi ...

20 October 2024 | 6:35PM HKT 公众号: 永木纪要 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | Asia in Focus China: FAQs on recent stimulus and consumption | | | | China's recent policy easing measures have attracted significant market attention. this note, we answer a few frequently aske ...