众号: 永木纪要 18 October 2024 | 1:05PM HKT China: 70-city average property price decline accelerated in September | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: The National Bureau of Statistics' 70-city house price data suggests the weighted | | | average property price in the ...

关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 12:41AM HKT Proya Cosmetics (603605.ss) Earnings review: 3Q24 Sales/NI inline but lower OP on ROI pressure; Lower 4Q outlook reflecting disciplined Double 11 Mof 603605.SS 12m Price Target: Rmb107.50 Price: Rmb99.00 Upside: 8.6% Proya reported 3Q24 revenue/NI growth of 21%/21% yoy, in line, a with market consensus, but same as previous two quarters; OP came in 13% below with a 4.7ppt contraction in GPM-Selling expenses ratio due to elevated ROI pressure including increasing KOL ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

关注公众号: 永木纪要 21 October 2024 | 10:57PM HKT | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | We refreshed our global PC TAMs to 1) factor in the latest forecasts for key suppliers including HPQ, Dell, Apple, Asus, Lenovo, Samsung, LG, Xiaom ...

24 October 2024 | 1:43PM EDT in Japan to 49.3. 众号: 永木纪要 Global PMI Monitor: Manufacturing Output Expectations Improve in the US, Decline Elsewhere (Dong) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | DM trends: □ The DM composite flash PMI fell by -0.3pt in October to 51.8; the | | | | | manufacturing component rose by +0.3pt to 47.6 and the services component fell by -0.6pt to 52.7. | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review. Core Insights - The report discusses the significant economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, estimating combined property damages around $90 billion, which represents approximately 0.3% of GDP, marking them as some of the most destructive storms since World War II [3][4]. - It highlights that nearly 10% of the U.S. population was affected by these hurricanes, indicating a broad societal impact [6]. - The report anticipates a temporary slowdown in economic growth indicators due to the hurricanes, with a projected drag of 40-50k on nonfarm payroll growth for October [13][16]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact of Hurricanes - The report estimates that the property damages from Hurricanes Helene and Milton could rank among the top 10 hurricanes in terms of economic impact since WWII [4]. - The societal breadth of the disasters is significant, with 6% of the U.S. population covered by federal disaster declarations related to these hurricanes [6]. Labor Market Effects - Initial jobless claims in hurricane-impacted states have increased by 14k, with expectations of a further rise of 5-10k due to Hurricane Milton [9][10]. - Historically, the peak in initial claims follows hurricanes by about two weeks, but this lag has decreased over time due to technological advancements [10][13]. GDP and Economic Activity - The report suggests a 0.3 percentage point hit to quarterly annualized Q4 GDP growth, followed by a similar boost in Q1 as rebuilding efforts commence [16]. - Historical data indicates that major natural disasters typically lead to a slowdown in GDP growth in the month of the disaster, with a rebound in subsequent months [18][17]. Inflation Considerations - The report notes that while natural disasters do not typically have a strong impact on national inflation rates, specific disruptions in automotive parts production could lead to upward pressure on car prices [22]. Future Data Releases - The report provides a roadmap for upcoming economic data releases, indicating that data for October will likely reflect the most acute impacts of the hurricanes [7][8].

公众号: 永木纪要 24 October 2024 | 8:44PM JST Japan Technology: Semiconductor Capital Equipment: September SEAJ data: Demand outside of mainland China likely recovering Jul-Sep sales up 23% yoy; non-China likely recovering According to preliminary September 2024 data released after the October 24 close by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ), monthly sales of Japanese semiconductor production equipment in July-September 2024 axepraged ¥369.6 bn, an increase of 23% yoy (+7% qoq). While regional b ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for S&P 500 cash spending, forecasting an acceleration from +8% in 2024 to +11% in 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - Strong earnings growth is expected to drive cash spending, with S&P 500 cash spending increasing by 15% year/year in 1H 2024, led by the top 10 spenders which increased spending by 36% [1][4][7]. - The report anticipates a roughly even split between returning cash to shareholders and investing for growth, with buybacks expected to grow by 15% and dividends by 7% in 2025 [2][3][4]. - Capital expenditures (capex) are projected to grow by 8% and R&D by 9% in 2025, while cash M&A is expected to rebound by 20% [2][3][4]. Cash Spending Forecasts - S&P 500 cash spending is forecasted to reach $3,954 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures at $1,148 billion, share buybacks at $1,070 billion, dividends at $711 billion, R&D at $700 billion, and cash acquisitions at $325 billion [4][16]. - The growth rates for these categories are expected to be 8% for capex, 15% for buybacks, 7% for dividends, 9% for R&D, and 20% for cash M&A [2][4][16]. Earnings Growth and Its Impact - Earnings growth is identified as a key driver of cash spending, with a forecasted EPS growth of +11% in 2025, up from +8% in 2024 [7][8][28]. - The gap in earnings growth between mega-cap tech stocks and the median stock is expected to narrow, supporting broader cash spending across the S&P 500 [8][20]. Sector-Level Breakdown - The report provides a sector-level breakdown of cash spending, highlighting that Information Technology and Health Care are significant contributors to buybacks and R&D [16][30]. - For example, Information Technology is expected to account for 20% of total cash spending, with a notable share in buybacks and R&D [16][30]. M&A Activity - US M&A activity has rebounded by 22% year-to-date in 2024, with strategic acquirers announcing $473 billion in deals [40][41]. - However, the cash component of completed M&A has decreased from 82% to 62%, indicating a shift towards share-based transactions [40][41]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for S&P 500 cash spending is optimistic, driven by strong earnings growth and a balanced approach to returning cash to shareholders while investing in growth opportunities [1][2][3].

20 October 2024 | 6:35PM HKT 公众号: 永木纪要 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | Asia in Focus China: FAQs on recent stimulus and consumption | | | | China's recent policy easing measures have attracted significant market attention. this note, we answer a few frequently aske ...