Investment Rating - MAA: Buy with a 12-month price target of $187 based on a target FFO multiple of 20.1x [9][11] - CPT: Neutral with a 12-month price target of $139 based on a target FFO multiple of 19.3x [12] - EQR: Neutral with a 12-month price target of $81 based on a target FFO multiple of 19.7x [13] - ESS: Neutral with a 12-month price target of $318 based on a target FFO multiple of 19.5x [14] - UDR: Sell with a 12-month price target of $42 based on a target FFO multiple of 16.4x [15] Core Insights - The Sunbelt multifamily market has shown better-than-expected year-to-date results, with Morgan Properties reporting a +1% rental growth in their Sunbelt portfolio and +3% in the Mid-Atlantic portfolio [2] - Demand in the Sunbelt remains strong, driven by continued in-migration and robust job and wage growth, contradicting narratives of demand issues in these markets [3] - Rent growth in Sunbelt markets is expected to accelerate in 2025, with projections of ~3% growth, supported by strong occupancy and low turnover [6] Summary by Sections Rent Growth Expectations - 2024 rent growth results have significantly outperformed expectations due to higher demand, with Cortland's portfolio showing slight positive rent growth in Q3 after a negative first half [2] - Expectations for 2025 rent growth in Sunbelt markets are around 3%, with potential for new lease rate growth to turn positive in Q2 2025 [6] Demand Drivers - Strong demand in the Sunbelt is attributed to high absorption rates, job growth, and wage increases, indicating a favorable environment for multifamily REITs like MAA and CPT [3] Supply Dynamics - Supply in the Sunbelt is expected to peak in Q1 2025, with a decline in multifamily starts, which may negatively impact the multifamily REITs if demand does not keep pace [5] - Higher development costs and interest rates are influencing the development market, leading to a cautious outlook for new multifamily starts until late 2025 [5] Transaction Environment - Interest in transaction activity has been reignited, but distressed opportunities have not yet materialized due to "extend and pretend" strategies by property owners [8]

9 October 2024 | 6:41AM EDT Aerospace & Defense 3Q24 earnings preview Our 3Q24 A&D earnings preview provides our current thoughts on each sub-market and single stock ideas into the results period. Aerospace OE is challenged by the Boeing strike and supply chain hurdles. We expect companies to speak to slower output through year-end, but only modestly, with an aim to ramp quickly in 2025. Unit and price growth are both likely still strong in the aftermarket, and only extended by OE challenges; we expect stro ...

9 October 2024 | 5:34PM EDT _ What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Even brighter US macro picture, Middle East energy supply risks, more US/China equity upside This week: n US: an even brighter macro picture n Middle East: energy supply risks n Equities: more upside in the US and China Transcript US: an even brighter macro picture We lowered our 12m US recession odds by 5pp to the historical unconditional average of 15% and became more confident that the Fed will deliver 25bp rate cuts at the next few FOMC ...

8 October 2024 | 11:30PM HKT _ China Consumer Connections Pulse Check: National Day holiday consumption wrap-up: Mild growth with some improvement; policy support is The National Day holiday is one of the key investor focuses points post the Sep Politburo meeting, at which clear easing signals were sent, alongside boosting consumption. Given the generally soft consumption data points in 2Q-3Q, we believe investor expectations on holiday consumption are still relatively cautious. However, the retail and cons ...

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10 October 2024 | 7:38AM HKT _ Asia Pacific Textile, Apparel & Footwear: Monthly Tracker: Sep 2024: Solid OEM growth continues; stagnant PS recovery Our key takeaways from our Sep monthly tracker along with brands'/OEMs' recent comments include: 1) In Sep, solid growth continued for OEMs. Most players saw MoM growth acceleration which should be supported by healthy order trends; Feng Tay, however, remains an underperformer due to high exposure to Nike's basketball/lifestyle products, in line with that brand ...

8 October 2024 | 6:42AM EDT Americas Insurance: Property & Casualty Investment Income Sensitivity Analysis Across Insurers & Brokers Following the first federal funds rate cut in over four years, we refresh our net investment income estimates and highlight individual company sensitivities. While the forward curve for short term rates is materially lower versus a few months ago, consensus expectations for longer maturity bond yields are relatively more resilient. This creates an interesting dynamic whereby t ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the tourism industry but indicates stable growth momentum in the hospitality sector during the National Day Golden Week [2]. Core Insights - Tourism data during the National Day Golden Week showed stable growth compared to previous long holidays, with domestic tourism revenue slightly above pre-pandemic levels, but tourism spending per head remained below pre-pandemic levels, indicating weak domestic demand [2][4][18]. Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Data - Domestic tourism data during the National Day Golden Week (1-7 October 2024) remained stable compared to previous long holidays, including the Mid-Autumn Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, and Labor Day holiday [3]. - The number of nationwide domestic visitors was 10.2% above the pre-pandemic level, while domestic tourism revenue was 7.9% above the pre-pandemic level [4]. - Year-on-year, the number of domestic visitors and tourism revenue were 5.9% and 6.3% above the previous year, respectively [4]. Spending and Revenue Trends - Tourism revenue per head was 2.1% below the pre-pandemic level during the National Day Golden Week, indicating a decline from the Mid-Autumn Festival [4]. - Daily revenue in consumption-related industries gained 25% year-on-year during the National Day Golden Week, with retail sales revenue up 9% and home appliance sales revenue up 149% [6]. Passenger Flows and Mobility - Domestic passenger traffic flows during the National Day Golden Week were 4% above the previous year and 23% above the pre-pandemic level [10]. - Daily average traffic congestion in major cities was 1% above year-ago levels but 9% below pre-pandemic levels [10]. Property Market Insights - Property transactions in large cities remained subdued during the National Day Golden Week, with primary market home sales volume 64% below year-ago levels and secondary market sales volume 11% below year-ago levels [12][16]. - Anecdotal evidence suggests improving sentiment in some cities despite the weak sales [12]. Overall Economic Context - Low tourism spending per head and subdued service prices highlight ongoing weak domestic demand and consumption downgrading [18]. - Future easing measures, particularly on the fiscal front, may be necessary to boost domestic demand and rebuild consumer confidence [18].

8 October 2024 | 10:12AM JST Japan: BOP: August Inbound Spending Falls, Primary Income Surplus Hits Record High BOTTOM LINE: Japan's current account balance came in at a surplus of +¥3.80 tn in August, up +65% from +¥2.29 tn in August 2023. Inbound spending fell, but the primary income balance, which mainly reflects earnings from overseas assets, hit a record surplus. In September, domestic investors remained net buyers of foreign bonds, while foreign investors were large net sellers of Japanese equities. K ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Installed Building Products Inc. (IBP), and TopBuild Corp. (BLD) [26]. Core Insights - The GS Housing Activity Weekly Scale held at 4 for the week of September 29, reflecting a 2% sequential decline and a 12% year-over-year decrease, which is 22% below the long-term average [2][4]. - Despite a decline in sales, mortgage purchase applications rose for the sixth consecutive week, indicating potential future recovery as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement 150 basis points of rate cuts through June 2025 [2][10]. - The report highlights that building product companies with greater exposure to new residential construction are well-positioned for growth [2]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Activity - The index for housing activity is at 4, indicating a weak market compared to historical norms [2][4]. - Active listings are 20% below the 2019 average but have increased by 16% year-over-year [10]. - Home sales fell by 6% sequentially and year-over-year, while the median sale price increased by 4% year-over-year [10]. Mortgage Market Update - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.12%, up 4 basis points sequentially and down 137 basis points year-over-year [14]. - Mortgage applications rose by 64% year-over-year, with purchase volumes growing by 9% [14][19]. Market Dynamics - 35% of homes were off the market within two weeks, an increase from 28% in the same week of 2019 [10]. - The time on the market is approximately 6 days shorter than in the same week in 2019 [10]. - There are signs of underlying weakness, such as 6.6% of active listings experiencing price declines, significantly above the 3.5% average in 2019 [10].