Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China Real Estate sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook on property investment due to ongoing challenges in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Large-scale fiscal stimulus for the housing market is deemed unlikely, but property prices may stabilize next year [2][3]. - The central government's policy stance focuses on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative investment, emphasizing the development of both social and commodity housing systems [2][3]. - The report highlights that the primary market volume is unlikely to improve soon due to competition from an increasing supply in the secondary market [3][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Outlook - The easing impact of current policies is limited compared to the 2014-2015 cycle, with slower implementation of measures and less effective demand stimulation [7][10]. - Fiscal policy measures have not been fully utilized, contrasting with more aggressive measures taken in previous downturns [7][10]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market is expected to continue seeing significant supply, which may hinder recovery in the primary market [11][12]. - Homebuyers are hesitant to increase leverage due to low confidence in future income and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Price and Completion Outlook - Property prices may stabilize in 2025, with lower-tier cities showing decelerated price declines [13][14]. - Although project completion risks have eased, the handover process remains challenging due to quality concerns and buyer reluctance [14]. Investment Trends - Property investment is projected to contract year-on-year, with a potential decline of 10% in 2025, influenced by ongoing reductions in property construction [16]. - The land market may see a narrower year-on-year decline or even an increase in 2025, driven by buoyant sales from state-owned enterprises [16].

12 October 2024 | 1:29AM HKT continue to grow solidly. Global Economics Wrap-Up: October 11, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | Global Economics | Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 \| andrew.tilton@gs.com | | n | | Recent data have st ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Bulks, Base, Steel: LME week confirmed challenges miners face maintaining volumes - risk of guidance 11 October 2024 | 6:47AM BST Europe Metals & Mining The broad monetary easing announced by China coupled with guidance on further easing ahead, led to a financially driven rally in commodities. The shift in sentiment/positioning saw to a significant swing to long positioning in base metals, particularly copper (that saw one of the highest volume weeks in history) and a ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income sector, but it highlights the resilience and potential for higher yields compared to other sovereign fixed income assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors in this asset class [2][10][30]. Core Insights - The report outlines four key lessons from two decades of EM fixed income investing, emphasizing the maturation of the asset class, its resilience during economic shocks, and the benefits of including EM fixed income in broader portfolios [2][7][10]. - EM fixed income has become a more reliable source of yield despite a decline in outperformance over the past decade, demonstrating resilience during significant global events such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic [2][8][19]. - The macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in the performance of EM fixed income, with favorable conditions including stable or easing rates and positive growth re-ratings [3][10][39]. Summary by Sections Performance and Maturity - EM fixed income has evolved into a more mature asset class, characterized by less outperformance but greater resilience against shocks [2][8][12]. - The performance of EM fixed income has been mixed over the past decade, with local currency debt showing more volatility compared to hard currency debt [14][15][19]. Macro Environment - EM fixed income tends to outperform in environments where risk-sensitive assets perform well and during periods of US Dollar weakness [35][39]. - The report identifies specific periods of outperformance and underperformance over the last two decades, correlating these with macroeconomic conditions [31][32][34]. Portfolio Diversification - Including EM fixed income in portfolios can enhance diversification, with hard currency EM providing higher returns for higher risk tolerance portfolios, while local currency EM offers differentiated risk exposure [4][10][45]. - The report suggests that adding EM fixed income can improve expected returns for the same level of volatility in fixed income portfolios [42][44]. Currency Risk Management - Managing currency risk is critical for investors in EM local debt, as fluctuations in foreign exchange can significantly impact total returns [5][11][46]. - The report discusses the trade-offs involved in hedging currency risk, highlighting that while it can reduce volatility, it may also limit exposure to potential cyclical gains [46][57].

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 11 October 2024 | 8:00PM HKT China Restaurants: Monthly Tracker: Sep update: Sequentially softer than Aug while improvement in National Day holiday Sep SSS recovery was softer than Aug, which is similar to the trend we've seen in other consumer sectors (e.g. sportswear). By brand, Haidilao table turn declined by MSD-HSD% yoy and dropped to below 4x based on our calculation entering off-peak season, implying a lower vs. pre-Covid recovery level at low 70%s vs. low-80%s ...

Investment Rating - The report favors leveraged loans over high-yield (HY) bonds due to severe price appreciation constraints in the HY bond market and sufficient excess carry in leveraged loans [2][9]. Core Insights - Dispersion in the USD high-yield market has shown convincing signs of decline for the first time since 2022, driven by a rally in CCC-rated bonds and sectors like Wirelines and Cable & Satellite [5][6]. - Default rates for US leveraged loan issuers are forecasted to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while US HY bonds are expected to see a slight rise in defaults but ultimately stabilize around 3% [3][21]. - European default rates for both HY bonds and leveraged loans are projected to hover around 4% in 2025, reflecting a tougher macro outlook [3][22]. Summary by Sections Dispersion and Market Dynamics - The decline in dispersion is not limited to CCC-rated bonds; the B bucket has also experienced a reduction in dispersion [5][6]. - The combination of easier monetary policy, continued normalization in inflation, and robust growth is expected to further normalize dispersion within the B bucket [5]. Default Rate Forecasts - The 12-month trailing issuer-weighted default rate for US HY bonds has decreased to 3.0% from 4.1% earlier this year, while leveraged loan defaults have risen to 6.8% [21][22]. - Distressed exchanges have accounted for a record share of defaults in both the US HY bond and leveraged loan markets, with 73% and 69% respectively [22]. Leveraged Loans vs. HY Bonds - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leveraged loans due to their attractive excess carry, which is sufficient to absorb upcoming Fed cuts [2][9]. - Despite HY bonds outperforming leveraged loans on a total return basis year-to-date, leveraged loans have outperformed on an excess return basis by over 3% [9][13]. LBO Activity and Market Conditions - LBO transaction volumes are up 25% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, although they remain below the average of 2018-2022 [7][10]. - The average equity contribution in LBO transactions has increased to 49%, higher than the pre-COVID average of 40% [10].

11 October 2024 | 3:10PM BRT As China returns from the long Golden Week holidays, buyers and sellers are slowly resuming market conversations. For now our conversations suggest a continuation of the past month: buyers are buying regular volumes, seasonality is disappointing and paper prices are still under pressure. Recent announced China monetary and fiscal policies have failed to trigger a significant change in sentiment and/or paper demand, but pulp prices are expected to remain flat in October (maybe so ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 10 October 2024 | 10:56PM EDT Americas Clean Technology: Water: WEFTEC Takeaways: Infrastructure Act spending starting to emerge and wastewater We attended the Water Environment Federation's Technical Exhibition and Conference (WEFTEC) in New Orleans this week. We met with MWA, PNR, VLTO, and XYL within our water coverage and a number of other companies within the water value chain at WEFTEC. Conversations included infrastructure spending, new product launches, produc ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) equities, with a 12-month target for MSCI EM set at 1300, driven by underlying earnings growth and a flat target P/E [19]. Core Insights - The easing of policies in China has broadened the EM equity rally, with MSCI EM up 10% from September lows, primarily led by P/E expansion and improved earnings sentiment [12][19]. - The report highlights that Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil equities exhibit the highest positive sensitivity to oil prices, while Central and Eastern Europe (CE-3), India, and Korea show the most negative sensitivity [3][19]. - Recent downgrades in earnings estimates for Korea, Brazil, and China have occurred, but overall earnings sentiment has improved marginally [19]. Performance Overview - MSCI EM declined by 2% week-over-week, while MSCI China saw a significant drop of 7%. In contrast, Taiwan outperformed with a 4% increase [1]. - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold $3 billion in EMs (excluding China), with India leading the outflows at $2 billion [19]. - The report notes that higher oil prices above $80 per barrel historically weigh on EM equities, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical tensions and expectations of improving growth in China [1][7]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that EM equities have historically performed well during oil rallies, particularly in Latin America and South Africa, while China and Taiwan have lagged [5][9]. - Korea, South Africa, and Peru are identified as having the highest sensitivity to both China's economic growth and equity rally [19][20]. - The report suggests that MENA and Latin American equities serve as good hedges if oil prices rise, while North Asia and South Africa benefit from positive momentum in China [9][19]. Earnings and Valuation - The current valuation for MSCI EM is at 12.5x NTM P/E, which is in line with historical averages, but valuations are elevated in India and Taiwan, while depressed in Colombia and Hungary [1][19]. - Earnings for 2024 have been revised lower due to downgrades in key markets, but the overall sentiment has shown signs of improvement [19].

10 October 2024 | 4:09PM EDT about subsequent stages of the AI build-out. 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | US Equity Views AI and US ...