12 October 2024 | 1:29AM HKT continue to grow solidly. Global Economics Wrap-Up: October 11, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | Global Economics | Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 \| andrew.tilton@gs.com | | n | | Recent data have st ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of $230, reflecting a downside potential of 3.7% from the current price of $238.77 [11][14]. Core Insights - Tesla showcased significant advancements in its Optimus humanoid robot and introduced the Cybercab and Robovan at the 'We, Robot' event, indicating strong progress in autonomous vehicle technology [1][2]. - The company plans to initiate unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) robotaxi operations in Texas and California next year, with production of the Cybercab expected to start in 2026 or before 2027 [2][4]. - Tesla anticipates that its Cybercab will have an average operating cost of approximately $0.20 per mile, with pricing expected to be around $0.30 to $0.40 per mile [3][4]. - The long-term revenue potential from robotaxis is significant, although initial deployments may yield limited revenues [4][6]. Summary by Sections Cybercab and Robovan - The Cybercab is a two-seat vehicle designed without traditional controls, while the Robovan can accommodate up to 20 passengers or transport goods [2]. - Tesla aims for the Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30,000 or less, with plans for inductive charging and self-cleaning capabilities [3][4]. Optimus Robot - The Optimus robot demonstrated impressive capabilities, including lifelike movements and interactive features, suggesting a growing role in Tesla's future [10][11]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for high-end humanoid robots could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with limited production of Optimus Version 1 expected to start early next year [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tesla indicate growth from $96.77 billion in 2023 to $140.04 billion by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from $16.63 billion to $29.54 billion in the same period [13]. - The EPS is projected to increase from $2.60 in 2023 to $4.20 by 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in the company's software and FSD business [13].

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 11 October 2024 | 8:00PM HKT China Restaurants: Monthly Tracker: Sep update: Sequentially softer than Aug while improvement in National Day holiday Sep SSS recovery was softer than Aug, which is similar to the trend we've seen in other consumer sectors (e.g. sportswear). By brand, Haidilao table turn declined by MSD-HSD% yoy and dropped to below 4x based on our calculation entering off-peak season, implying a lower vs. pre-Covid recovery level at low 70%s vs. low-80%s ...

10 October 2024 | 4:09PM EDT about subsequent stages of the AI build-out. 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | US Equity Views AI and US ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income sector, but it highlights the resilience and potential for higher yields compared to other sovereign fixed income assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors in this asset class [2][10][30]. Core Insights - The report outlines four key lessons from two decades of EM fixed income investing, emphasizing the maturation of the asset class, its resilience during economic shocks, and the benefits of including EM fixed income in broader portfolios [2][7][10]. - EM fixed income has become a more reliable source of yield despite a decline in outperformance over the past decade, demonstrating resilience during significant global events such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic [2][8][19]. - The macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in the performance of EM fixed income, with favorable conditions including stable or easing rates and positive growth re-ratings [3][10][39]. Summary by Sections Performance and Maturity - EM fixed income has evolved into a more mature asset class, characterized by less outperformance but greater resilience against shocks [2][8][12]. - The performance of EM fixed income has been mixed over the past decade, with local currency debt showing more volatility compared to hard currency debt [14][15][19]. Macro Environment - EM fixed income tends to outperform in environments where risk-sensitive assets perform well and during periods of US Dollar weakness [35][39]. - The report identifies specific periods of outperformance and underperformance over the last two decades, correlating these with macroeconomic conditions [31][32][34]. Portfolio Diversification - Including EM fixed income in portfolios can enhance diversification, with hard currency EM providing higher returns for higher risk tolerance portfolios, while local currency EM offers differentiated risk exposure [4][10][45]. - The report suggests that adding EM fixed income can improve expected returns for the same level of volatility in fixed income portfolios [42][44]. Currency Risk Management - Managing currency risk is critical for investors in EM local debt, as fluctuations in foreign exchange can significantly impact total returns [5][11][46]. - The report discusses the trade-offs involved in hedging currency risk, highlighting that while it can reduce volatility, it may also limit exposure to potential cyclical gains [46][57].

11 October 2024 | 3:10PM BRT As China returns from the long Golden Week holidays, buyers and sellers are slowly resuming market conversations. For now our conversations suggest a continuation of the past month: buyers are buying regular volumes, seasonality is disappointing and paper prices are still under pressure. Recent announced China monetary and fiscal policies have failed to trigger a significant change in sentiment and/or paper demand, but pulp prices are expected to remain flat in October (maybe so ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Bulks, Base, Steel: LME week confirmed challenges miners face maintaining volumes - risk of guidance 11 October 2024 | 6:47AM BST Europe Metals & Mining The broad monetary easing announced by China coupled with guidance on further easing ahead, led to a financially driven rally in commodities. The shift in sentiment/positioning saw to a significant swing to long positioning in base metals, particularly copper (that saw one of the highest volume weeks in history) and a ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 10 October 2024 | 10:56PM EDT Americas Clean Technology: Water: WEFTEC Takeaways: Infrastructure Act spending starting to emerge and wastewater We attended the Water Environment Federation's Technical Exhibition and Conference (WEFTEC) in New Orleans this week. We met with MWA, PNR, VLTO, and XYL within our water coverage and a number of other companies within the water value chain at WEFTEC. Conversations included infrastructure spending, new product launches, produc ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) equities, with a 12-month target for MSCI EM set at 1300, driven by underlying earnings growth and a flat target P/E [19]. Core Insights - The easing of policies in China has broadened the EM equity rally, with MSCI EM up 10% from September lows, primarily led by P/E expansion and improved earnings sentiment [12][19]. - The report highlights that Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil equities exhibit the highest positive sensitivity to oil prices, while Central and Eastern Europe (CE-3), India, and Korea show the most negative sensitivity [3][19]. - Recent downgrades in earnings estimates for Korea, Brazil, and China have occurred, but overall earnings sentiment has improved marginally [19]. Performance Overview - MSCI EM declined by 2% week-over-week, while MSCI China saw a significant drop of 7%. In contrast, Taiwan outperformed with a 4% increase [1]. - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold $3 billion in EMs (excluding China), with India leading the outflows at $2 billion [19]. - The report notes that higher oil prices above $80 per barrel historically weigh on EM equities, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical tensions and expectations of improving growth in China [1][7]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that EM equities have historically performed well during oil rallies, particularly in Latin America and South Africa, while China and Taiwan have lagged [5][9]. - Korea, South Africa, and Peru are identified as having the highest sensitivity to both China's economic growth and equity rally [19][20]. - The report suggests that MENA and Latin American equities serve as good hedges if oil prices rise, while North Asia and South Africa benefit from positive momentum in China [9][19]. Earnings and Valuation - The current valuation for MSCI EM is at 12.5x NTM P/E, which is in line with historical averages, but valuations are elevated in India and Taiwan, while depressed in Colombia and Hungary [1][19]. - Earnings for 2024 have been revised lower due to downgrades in key markets, but the overall sentiment has shown signs of improvement [19].

Investment Rating - The report favors leveraged loans over high-yield (HY) bonds due to severe price appreciation constraints in the HY bond market and sufficient excess carry in leveraged loans [2][9]. Core Insights - Dispersion in the USD high-yield market has shown convincing signs of decline for the first time since 2022, driven by a rally in CCC-rated bonds and sectors like Wirelines and Cable & Satellite [5][6]. - Default rates for US leveraged loan issuers are forecasted to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while US HY bonds are expected to see a slight rise in defaults but ultimately stabilize around 3% [3][21]. - European default rates for both HY bonds and leveraged loans are projected to hover around 4% in 2025, reflecting a tougher macro outlook [3][22]. Summary by Sections Dispersion and Market Dynamics - The decline in dispersion is not limited to CCC-rated bonds; the B bucket has also experienced a reduction in dispersion [5][6]. - The combination of easier monetary policy, continued normalization in inflation, and robust growth is expected to further normalize dispersion within the B bucket [5]. Default Rate Forecasts - The 12-month trailing issuer-weighted default rate for US HY bonds has decreased to 3.0% from 4.1% earlier this year, while leveraged loan defaults have risen to 6.8% [21][22]. - Distressed exchanges have accounted for a record share of defaults in both the US HY bond and leveraged loan markets, with 73% and 69% respectively [22]. Leveraged Loans vs. HY Bonds - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leveraged loans due to their attractive excess carry, which is sufficient to absorb upcoming Fed cuts [2][9]. - Despite HY bonds outperforming leveraged loans on a total return basis year-to-date, leveraged loans have outperformed on an excess return basis by over 3% [9][13]. LBO Activity and Market Conditions - LBO transaction volumes are up 25% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, although they remain below the average of 2018-2022 [7][10]. - The average equity contribution in LBO transactions has increased to 49%, higher than the pre-COVID average of 40% [10].