Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pien Tze Huang (600436.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb280, indicating an upside potential of 21.5% from the current price of Rmb230.54 [2][8][7]. Core Insights - Pien Tze Huang reported 3Q24 earnings of Rmb965 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a 6.3% beat against Goldman Sachs estimates, attributed to better gross profit margins and lower-than-expected expenses [1][2]. - The revenue for 3Q24 was Rmb2,800 million, marking a 9.6% increase year-on-year and a 2.9% increase compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, driven by strong sales growth in hepatic disease medication, which saw a 25.3% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - The report anticipates a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and earnings per share (EPS) between FY23 and FY26, supported by ongoing production growth and pricing hikes amid increasing demand [6][7]. Financial Estimates - Earnings estimates for Pien Tze Huang have been revised upwards by 2.8% for 2024E, with net profit expected to reach Rmb3,068 million, a 2.8% increase from previous estimates [4][5]. - Revenue projections for 2024E have been adjusted to Rmb11,135 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase from prior estimates, with EBIT expected to be Rmb3,613 million, a 2.9% increase [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable gross profit margin (GPM) of 46.9% for 3Q24, slightly improved from 46.6% in previous estimates, despite pressures from rising cow bezoar costs [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with a Q3 GDP tracking estimate boosted to +3.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized, reflecting strong economic indicators [1][4]. Core Insights - The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 to 47.8, slightly above expectations, with strong underlying components in output, new orders, and employment [2][4]. - The S&P Global US services PMI rose by 0.1 to 55.3, also slightly above expectations, with a mixed-to-strong composition, particularly in new business [2][4]. - New home sales increased by 4.1% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 738,000 units, surpassing consensus expectations [4][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's output component increased by 0.9 points to 48.8, new orders rose by 0.6 points to 45.3, and employment increased by 0.2 points to 48.6 [2][4]. - Input prices decreased by 0.5 points to 56.2, while output prices fell by 0.7 points to 54.0 [2][4]. Services Sector - The services PMI's new business component increased by 1.8 points to 55.8, while the employment component remained unchanged at 49.7 [4][5]. - Input prices in the services sector declined by 0.7 points to 58.5, and output prices decreased by 3.5 points to 51.1 [4][5]. Housing Market - New single-family home sales rose to 738,000 units, with significant increases in the South and Northeast regions, while the Midwest saw a slight decline [4][5]. - The report noted revisions in previous months' sales figures, indicating a downward adjustment in August and July sales [4][5].

23 October 2024 | 10:33AM EDT USA: Existing Home Sales Slightly Below Expectations | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | BOTTOM LINE: Existing home sales declined 1.0% to 3.84 million units in September from an upwardly revised level in August, slightly below consensus | | | expectations. The median sales price of all exi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SK Hynix Inc. with a target price raised to W280,000 from W255,000 [4][6]. Core Insights - SK Hynix's 3Q24 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong execution in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enhanced leadership in AI memory products [1][3]. - HBM revenue increased significantly, contributing to a higher blended Average Selling Price (ASP) for DRAM, with expectations for continued growth in HBM demand and pricing [3][6]. - The company anticipates a mid-to-high-teens percentage growth in DRAM demand in 2024, accelerating to high-teens growth in 2025, supported by enterprise refresh cycles and AI-driven smartphone sales [3][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - SK Hynix reported 3Q24 revenue of W17.6 trillion, a 7% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) increase and a 94% year-over-year (yoy) increase, with operating profit of W7.0 trillion, surpassing estimates [1][2]. - The strong performance was attributed to a better product mix towards premium HBM and eSSD products, leading to a higher-than-expected blended ASP [1][3]. HBM Market Outlook - HBM revenue rose over 70% qoq and 330% yoy, reaching approximately US$2.7 billion, exceeding prior expectations [3][6]. - Hynix expects HBM sales to constitute 40% of total DRAM revenue in 4Q24, with a revised 2024 HBM revenue estimate of US$9.3 billion [3][6]. NAND Business Strategy - The eSSD segment accounted for over 60% of NAND revenue, with a 15% qoq increase in ASP [6]. - Hynix plans to focus on profitability and investment efficiency in its NAND business, adjusting bit shipment estimates downward while raising ASP assumptions [6][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E-2026E have been raised by 5-17%, reflecting stronger HBM mix and improved NAND ASP [6][4]. - The report anticipates a capital expenditure of mid-to-high-teens trillion Won for 2024, focusing on HBM supply and infrastructure investments [6][3].

要 关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 1:08AM HKT TAL Education GroupAL) Earnings Review: 2QFY25 earnings beat on intact operating efficiency; Commit to investment to drive multi-year growth ahead; Buy Mor TAL 12m Price Target: $15.50 Price: $10.21 Upside: 51.8% Timothy Zhao +852-2978-26733 timothy.zhao@gs.co Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China Education mana On the cusp of a new profitable growth era; Insights into evolving demand, policy environment and new business models n Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | rona ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kingdee (0268 HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$12 53, implying a 40 3% upside from the current price of HK$8 93 [6][11] Core Views - Kingdee's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by **23% YoY** to Rmb3 28bn by Sep 2024, with a net ARR addition of Rmb130m, accounting for 39% of the estimated 2H24 ARR net add [1] - The company's ARR is expected to reach **Rmb3 48bn by end-2024**, driven by a gradual recovery in IT spending, enhanced Constellation/Cosmic cloud platforms, and increased exposure to large-scale clients [1] - The Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale clients (Cosmic/Constellation) remained strong at **97% in 3Q24**, while mid-scale clients (Galaxy) and SME clients (Stellar/Jingdou) showed NDRs of **95% and 93%/88%**, respectively [4] - Earnings estimates for 2025E-26E were revised up by **1%/1%**, reflecting higher revenues supported by a gradual IT spending recovery and recent incentive policies [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kingdee's 2024E revenues are expected to reach **Rmb6 632m**, with a net loss revised down to **Rmb31m** from Rmb36m [6] - The 2025E-26E revenue growth is projected at **22%/26%**, with gross margins improving to **68 9%/72 1%** [6] - The valuation is based on a mix of **two-stage DCF** and **2025E P/S** methods, with a target P/S multiple of **4 1x** [6][9] - The 12-month target price implies a **6 2x/5 0x 2024E/2025E P/S**, which is below the stock's historical average, indicating attractive valuation [6] Client and Market Trends - Kingdee has successfully penetrated new large-scale clients, including **Denso China, Merchants Shekou, Liuzhou Steel Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical**, which supports future ARR growth [1] - The company's **large-scale client NDR** is expected to recover gradually, supported by incentive policies and new client order wins, although it may take time to reach **100%+** due to slow budgeting [4] Earnings Revisions - The 2024E net loss was revised from **Rmb36m to Rmb31m**, while 2025E-26E earnings were revised up by **1%/1%** due to higher revenue expectations [4] - The 2025E-26E revenue estimates were increased to **Rmb8 120m and Rmb10 216m**, respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in IT spending [6]

公众号: 永木纪要 August, with a 5kt y/y decrease in production during the month. 22 October 2024 | 7:24PM BRT Metals & Mining: Chile/Peru Monthly Copper Data (August): Solid Production Growth | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | August copper production was up 7% y/y in Chile and up 10% y/y in Peru (+6% and | | | ...

Industry Outlook - The China property industry is expected to reach an inflection point in the ongoing downward spiral, driven by a comprehensive policy easing package aimed at stabilizing property prices [2] - The government plans to address unsold inventory, including construction-in-progress and raw land, potentially through local government special bonds, with unsold inventory estimated at Rmb93tn (USD13tn) by end-2024 [2] - Property prices could fall another 20-25% from prior peak levels, but incremental government efforts in housing destocking are expected to stabilize the market in the coming years [2] Fiscal Support and Market Stabilization - The base-case industry forecast assumes Rmb8tn (US$1.1tn, 5.8% of 2025E GDP) in additional fiscal support, leading to property price stabilization by late 2025 and a 2% yoy ASP increase in 2027 [3] - Primary market property sales are expected to stabilize around Rmb8tn in 2027, about 40% of the peak, while property new starts are forecast to stabilize at 20% of the peak in 2027 [3] - Without additional stimulus, the property market downturn could be prolonged by another three years [8] Household and Industry Deleveraging - Household deleveraging is expected to continue in 2025 but gradually stabilize in 2026-2027, with total household debt balance growing at an average 3% p.a. in 2024-2027 [19][20] - Household asset value is forecast to fall in the near term but recover in 2026-2027, with real estate assets as a share of total household assets dropping to around 50% [21] - The industry leverage ratio is expected to improve to ~70% by end-2027 from 80% at end-2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and inventory reduction efforts [8][30] Secondary Market Dynamics - Secondary housing transaction volume is expected to grow at an average low-single-digit % p.a. in 2025-2027, with the secondary turnover rate increasing to 1.7% by 2027 [39] - Secondary prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with an average 2% yoy total secondary housing sales value growth in 2026-2027 [40] - Secondary housing GFA sold/sales are forecast to account for around 50% of nationwide total housing transaction volume/value in 2027 [40] Primary Market Trends - Developers' land banking and new project start activities are expected to shrink further due to liquidity constraints and lower demand, with new starts forecast at -24%/-15%/flat yoy in 2025-2027 [47] - Housing completions are expected to pick up moderately in 2025, but the overall trend remains downward, with property FAI forecast to contract by -15%/-12%/-12% yoy in 2025-2027 [47][62] - The primary market is expected to stabilize in late 2025, with property sales forecast at -9%/-4%/+2% yoy in 2024-2027 [61] Key Risks and Comparisons - Downside risks include insufficient government stimulus and faster-than-expected supply increases and price cuts in the secondary market, potentially prolonging the downturn [68] - Upside risks include a potential recovery in tier-1 cities' property prices, which could spill over to key tier-2 cities, driven by government inventory reduction efforts and improved market confidence [71] - The current cycle shows similarities to Japan's 1990s property downturn, with potential for a short-lived recovery if macro conditions deteriorate further [68][101]

11 October 2024 | 10:48AM EDT prior +0.2% USA: Core Producer Prices Increase in September; Estimating 0.24% for September Core PCE; UMichigan Sentiment Below Expectations | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | BOTTOM LINE: The producer price index (PPI) was unchanged in Septem ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China Real Estate sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook on property investment due to ongoing challenges in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Large-scale fiscal stimulus for the housing market is deemed unlikely, but property prices may stabilize next year [2][3]. - The central government's policy stance focuses on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative investment, emphasizing the development of both social and commodity housing systems [2][3]. - The report highlights that the primary market volume is unlikely to improve soon due to competition from an increasing supply in the secondary market [3][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Outlook - The easing impact of current policies is limited compared to the 2014-2015 cycle, with slower implementation of measures and less effective demand stimulation [7][10]. - Fiscal policy measures have not been fully utilized, contrasting with more aggressive measures taken in previous downturns [7][10]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market is expected to continue seeing significant supply, which may hinder recovery in the primary market [11][12]. - Homebuyers are hesitant to increase leverage due to low confidence in future income and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Price and Completion Outlook - Property prices may stabilize in 2025, with lower-tier cities showing decelerated price declines [13][14]. - Although project completion risks have eased, the handover process remains challenging due to quality concerns and buyer reluctance [14]. Investment Trends - Property investment is projected to contract year-on-year, with a potential decline of 10% in 2025, influenced by ongoing reductions in property construction [16]. - The land market may see a narrower year-on-year decline or even an increase in 2025, driven by buoyant sales from state-owned enterprises [16].