Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pien Tze Huang (600436.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb280, indicating an upside potential of 21.5% from the current price of Rmb230.54 [2][8][7]. Core Insights - Pien Tze Huang reported 3Q24 earnings of Rmb965 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a 6.3% beat against Goldman Sachs estimates, attributed to better gross profit margins and lower-than-expected expenses [1][2]. - The revenue for 3Q24 was Rmb2,800 million, marking a 9.6% increase year-on-year and a 2.9% increase compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, driven by strong sales growth in hepatic disease medication, which saw a 25.3% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - The report anticipates a healthy compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and earnings per share (EPS) between FY23 and FY26, supported by ongoing production growth and pricing hikes amid increasing demand [6][7]. Financial Estimates - Earnings estimates for Pien Tze Huang have been revised upwards by 2.8% for 2024E, with net profit expected to reach Rmb3,068 million, a 2.8% increase from previous estimates [4][5]. - Revenue projections for 2024E have been adjusted to Rmb11,135 million, reflecting a 2.3% increase from prior estimates, with EBIT expected to be Rmb3,613 million, a 2.9% increase [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable gross profit margin (GPM) of 46.9% for 3Q24, slightly improved from 46.6% in previous estimates, despite pressures from rising cow bezoar costs [1][2].

24 October 2024 | 10:52AM EDT 47.5, prior 47.3 公众号: 永木纪要 USA: S&P Global PMIs Slightly Better Than Expected; New Home Sales Above Expectations; Boosting Q3 GDP Tracking to +3.2% | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----- ...

23 October 2024 | 10:33AM EDT USA: Existing Home Sales Slightly Below Expectations | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | BOTTOM LINE: Existing home sales declined 1.0% to 3.84 million units in September from an upwardly revised level in August, slightly below consensus | | | expectations. The median sales price of all exi ...

关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 2:25AM KST Buy | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------- ...

要 关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 1:08AM HKT TAL Education GroupAL) Earnings Review: 2QFY25 earnings beat on intact operating efficiency; Commit to investment to drive multi-year growth ahead; Buy Mor TAL 12m Price Target: $15.50 Price: $10.21 Upside: 51.8% Timothy Zhao +852-2978-26733 timothy.zhao@gs.co Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China Education mana On the cusp of a new profitable growth era; Insights into evolving demand, policy environment and new business models n Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | rona ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kingdee (0268 HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$12 53, implying a 40 3% upside from the current price of HK$8 93 [6][11] Core Views - Kingdee's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by **23% YoY** to Rmb3 28bn by Sep 2024, with a net ARR addition of Rmb130m, accounting for 39% of the estimated 2H24 ARR net add [1] - The company's ARR is expected to reach **Rmb3 48bn by end-2024**, driven by a gradual recovery in IT spending, enhanced Constellation/Cosmic cloud platforms, and increased exposure to large-scale clients [1] - The Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale clients (Cosmic/Constellation) remained strong at **97% in 3Q24**, while mid-scale clients (Galaxy) and SME clients (Stellar/Jingdou) showed NDRs of **95% and 93%/88%**, respectively [4] - Earnings estimates for 2025E-26E were revised up by **1%/1%**, reflecting higher revenues supported by a gradual IT spending recovery and recent incentive policies [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kingdee's 2024E revenues are expected to reach **Rmb6 632m**, with a net loss revised down to **Rmb31m** from Rmb36m [6] - The 2025E-26E revenue growth is projected at **22%/26%**, with gross margins improving to **68 9%/72 1%** [6] - The valuation is based on a mix of **two-stage DCF** and **2025E P/S** methods, with a target P/S multiple of **4 1x** [6][9] - The 12-month target price implies a **6 2x/5 0x 2024E/2025E P/S**, which is below the stock's historical average, indicating attractive valuation [6] Client and Market Trends - Kingdee has successfully penetrated new large-scale clients, including **Denso China, Merchants Shekou, Liuzhou Steel Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical**, which supports future ARR growth [1] - The company's **large-scale client NDR** is expected to recover gradually, supported by incentive policies and new client order wins, although it may take time to reach **100%+** due to slow budgeting [4] Earnings Revisions - The 2024E net loss was revised from **Rmb36m to Rmb31m**, while 2025E-26E earnings were revised up by **1%/1%** due to higher revenue expectations [4] - The 2025E-26E revenue estimates were increased to **Rmb8 120m and Rmb10 216m**, respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in IT spending [6]

公众号: 永木纪要 August, with a 5kt y/y decrease in production during the month. 22 October 2024 | 7:24PM BRT Metals & Mining: Chile/Peru Monthly Copper Data (August): Solid Production Growth | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | August copper production was up 7% y/y in Chile and up 10% y/y in Peru (+6% and | | | ...

Industry Outlook - The China property industry is expected to reach an inflection point in the ongoing downward spiral, driven by a comprehensive policy easing package aimed at stabilizing property prices [2] - The government plans to address unsold inventory, including construction-in-progress and raw land, potentially through local government special bonds, with unsold inventory estimated at Rmb93tn (USD13tn) by end-2024 [2] - Property prices could fall another 20-25% from prior peak levels, but incremental government efforts in housing destocking are expected to stabilize the market in the coming years [2] Fiscal Support and Market Stabilization - The base-case industry forecast assumes Rmb8tn (US$1.1tn, 5.8% of 2025E GDP) in additional fiscal support, leading to property price stabilization by late 2025 and a 2% yoy ASP increase in 2027 [3] - Primary market property sales are expected to stabilize around Rmb8tn in 2027, about 40% of the peak, while property new starts are forecast to stabilize at 20% of the peak in 2027 [3] - Without additional stimulus, the property market downturn could be prolonged by another three years [8] Household and Industry Deleveraging - Household deleveraging is expected to continue in 2025 but gradually stabilize in 2026-2027, with total household debt balance growing at an average 3% p.a. in 2024-2027 [19][20] - Household asset value is forecast to fall in the near term but recover in 2026-2027, with real estate assets as a share of total household assets dropping to around 50% [21] - The industry leverage ratio is expected to improve to ~70% by end-2027 from 80% at end-2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and inventory reduction efforts [8][30] Secondary Market Dynamics - Secondary housing transaction volume is expected to grow at an average low-single-digit % p.a. in 2025-2027, with the secondary turnover rate increasing to 1.7% by 2027 [39] - Secondary prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with an average 2% yoy total secondary housing sales value growth in 2026-2027 [40] - Secondary housing GFA sold/sales are forecast to account for around 50% of nationwide total housing transaction volume/value in 2027 [40] Primary Market Trends - Developers' land banking and new project start activities are expected to shrink further due to liquidity constraints and lower demand, with new starts forecast at -24%/-15%/flat yoy in 2025-2027 [47] - Housing completions are expected to pick up moderately in 2025, but the overall trend remains downward, with property FAI forecast to contract by -15%/-12%/-12% yoy in 2025-2027 [47][62] - The primary market is expected to stabilize in late 2025, with property sales forecast at -9%/-4%/+2% yoy in 2024-2027 [61] Key Risks and Comparisons - Downside risks include insufficient government stimulus and faster-than-expected supply increases and price cuts in the secondary market, potentially prolonging the downturn [68] - Upside risks include a potential recovery in tier-1 cities' property prices, which could spill over to key tier-2 cities, driven by government inventory reduction efforts and improved market confidence [71] - The current cycle shows similarities to Japan's 1990s property downturn, with potential for a short-lived recovery if macro conditions deteriorate further [68][101]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of $230, reflecting a downside potential of 3.7% from the current price of $238.77 [11][14]. Core Insights - Tesla showcased significant advancements in its Optimus humanoid robot and introduced the Cybercab and Robovan at the 'We, Robot' event, indicating strong progress in autonomous vehicle technology [1][2]. - The company plans to initiate unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) robotaxi operations in Texas and California next year, with production of the Cybercab expected to start in 2026 or before 2027 [2][4]. - Tesla anticipates that its Cybercab will have an average operating cost of approximately $0.20 per mile, with pricing expected to be around $0.30 to $0.40 per mile [3][4]. - The long-term revenue potential from robotaxis is significant, although initial deployments may yield limited revenues [4][6]. Summary by Sections Cybercab and Robovan - The Cybercab is a two-seat vehicle designed without traditional controls, while the Robovan can accommodate up to 20 passengers or transport goods [2]. - Tesla aims for the Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30,000 or less, with plans for inductive charging and self-cleaning capabilities [3][4]. Optimus Robot - The Optimus robot demonstrated impressive capabilities, including lifelike movements and interactive features, suggesting a growing role in Tesla's future [10][11]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for high-end humanoid robots could exceed $10 billion by 2030, with limited production of Optimus Version 1 expected to start early next year [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tesla indicate growth from $96.77 billion in 2023 to $140.04 billion by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from $16.63 billion to $29.54 billion in the same period [13]. - The EPS is projected to increase from $2.60 in 2023 to $4.20 by 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in the company's software and FSD business [13].

11 October 2024 | 10:48AM EDT prior +0.2% USA: Core Producer Prices Increase in September; Estimating 0.24% for September Core PCE; UMichigan Sentiment Below Expectations | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | BOTTOM LINE: The producer price index (PPI) was unchanged in Septem ...