关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 2:25AM KST Buy | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------- ...

要 关注公众号: 永木纪要 25 October 2024 | 1:08AM HKT TAL Education GroupAL) Earnings Review: 2QFY25 earnings beat on intact operating efficiency; Commit to investment to drive multi-year growth ahead; Buy Mor TAL 12m Price Target: $15.50 Price: $10.21 Upside: 51.8% Timothy Zhao +852-2978-26733 timothy.zhao@gs.co Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China Education mana On the cusp of a new profitable growth era; Insights into evolving demand, policy environment and new business models n Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | rona ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kingdee (0268 HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$12 53, implying a 40 3% upside from the current price of HK$8 93 [6][11] Core Views - Kingdee's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by **23% YoY** to Rmb3 28bn by Sep 2024, with a net ARR addition of Rmb130m, accounting for 39% of the estimated 2H24 ARR net add [1] - The company's ARR is expected to reach **Rmb3 48bn by end-2024**, driven by a gradual recovery in IT spending, enhanced Constellation/Cosmic cloud platforms, and increased exposure to large-scale clients [1] - The Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale clients (Cosmic/Constellation) remained strong at **97% in 3Q24**, while mid-scale clients (Galaxy) and SME clients (Stellar/Jingdou) showed NDRs of **95% and 93%/88%**, respectively [4] - Earnings estimates for 2025E-26E were revised up by **1%/1%**, reflecting higher revenues supported by a gradual IT spending recovery and recent incentive policies [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - Kingdee's 2024E revenues are expected to reach **Rmb6 632m**, with a net loss revised down to **Rmb31m** from Rmb36m [6] - The 2025E-26E revenue growth is projected at **22%/26%**, with gross margins improving to **68 9%/72 1%** [6] - The valuation is based on a mix of **two-stage DCF** and **2025E P/S** methods, with a target P/S multiple of **4 1x** [6][9] - The 12-month target price implies a **6 2x/5 0x 2024E/2025E P/S**, which is below the stock's historical average, indicating attractive valuation [6] Client and Market Trends - Kingdee has successfully penetrated new large-scale clients, including **Denso China, Merchants Shekou, Liuzhou Steel Group, and CSPC Pharmaceutical**, which supports future ARR growth [1] - The company's **large-scale client NDR** is expected to recover gradually, supported by incentive policies and new client order wins, although it may take time to reach **100%+** due to slow budgeting [4] Earnings Revisions - The 2024E net loss was revised from **Rmb36m to Rmb31m**, while 2025E-26E earnings were revised up by **1%/1%** due to higher revenue expectations [4] - The 2025E-26E revenue estimates were increased to **Rmb8 120m and Rmb10 216m**, respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in IT spending [6]

公众号: 永木纪要 August, with a 5kt y/y decrease in production during the month. 22 October 2024 | 7:24PM BRT Metals & Mining: Chile/Peru Monthly Copper Data (August): Solid Production Growth | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | August copper production was up 7% y/y in Chile and up 10% y/y in Peru (+6% and | | | ...

Industry Outlook - The China property industry is expected to reach an inflection point in the ongoing downward spiral, driven by a comprehensive policy easing package aimed at stabilizing property prices [2] - The government plans to address unsold inventory, including construction-in-progress and raw land, potentially through local government special bonds, with unsold inventory estimated at Rmb93tn (USD13tn) by end-2024 [2] - Property prices could fall another 20-25% from prior peak levels, but incremental government efforts in housing destocking are expected to stabilize the market in the coming years [2] Fiscal Support and Market Stabilization - The base-case industry forecast assumes Rmb8tn (US$1.1tn, 5.8% of 2025E GDP) in additional fiscal support, leading to property price stabilization by late 2025 and a 2% yoy ASP increase in 2027 [3] - Primary market property sales are expected to stabilize around Rmb8tn in 2027, about 40% of the peak, while property new starts are forecast to stabilize at 20% of the peak in 2027 [3] - Without additional stimulus, the property market downturn could be prolonged by another three years [8] Household and Industry Deleveraging - Household deleveraging is expected to continue in 2025 but gradually stabilize in 2026-2027, with total household debt balance growing at an average 3% p.a. in 2024-2027 [19][20] - Household asset value is forecast to fall in the near term but recover in 2026-2027, with real estate assets as a share of total household assets dropping to around 50% [21] - The industry leverage ratio is expected to improve to ~70% by end-2027 from 80% at end-2025, supported by fiscal stimulus and inventory reduction efforts [8][30] Secondary Market Dynamics - Secondary housing transaction volume is expected to grow at an average low-single-digit % p.a. in 2025-2027, with the secondary turnover rate increasing to 1.7% by 2027 [39] - Secondary prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with an average 2% yoy total secondary housing sales value growth in 2026-2027 [40] - Secondary housing GFA sold/sales are forecast to account for around 50% of nationwide total housing transaction volume/value in 2027 [40] Primary Market Trends - Developers' land banking and new project start activities are expected to shrink further due to liquidity constraints and lower demand, with new starts forecast at -24%/-15%/flat yoy in 2025-2027 [47] - Housing completions are expected to pick up moderately in 2025, but the overall trend remains downward, with property FAI forecast to contract by -15%/-12%/-12% yoy in 2025-2027 [47][62] - The primary market is expected to stabilize in late 2025, with property sales forecast at -9%/-4%/+2% yoy in 2024-2027 [61] Key Risks and Comparisons - Downside risks include insufficient government stimulus and faster-than-expected supply increases and price cuts in the secondary market, potentially prolonging the downturn [68] - Upside risks include a potential recovery in tier-1 cities' property prices, which could spill over to key tier-2 cities, driven by government inventory reduction efforts and improved market confidence [71] - The current cycle shows similarities to Japan's 1990s property downturn, with potential for a short-lived recovery if macro conditions deteriorate further [68][101]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Initial thoughts on 'We, Robot' 10/10 event 11 October 2024 | 3:00AM EDT We attended Tesla's 10/10 'We, Robot' event in LA, where Tesla unveiled its Cybercab (robotaxi) and Robovan, and showcased progress with Optimus. We think the company demonstrated very strong progress with the Optimus humanoid robot, and we think the Cybercab looked attractive. However, we believe the lack of data shared on Full Self Driving (FSD) performance, relatively limite ...

11 October 2024 | 10:48AM EDT prior +0.2% USA: Core Producer Prices Increase in September; Estimating 0.24% for September Core PCE; UMichigan Sentiment Below Expectations | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | BOTTOM LINE: The producer price index (PPI) was unchanged in Septem ...

11 October 2024 | 11:07AM CST China Real Estate Expert sees large-scale fiscal stimulus on housing market unlikely but price could stabilize next year On Oct 10, we hosted an expert call with Ms. Qin Hong (senior researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China and Director of the Urban Renewal Research Center), to share insights on housing policy and property market outlook. In short, Ms. Qin sees direct, large-scale fiscal stimulus for the housing market as un ...

12 October 2024 | 1:29AM HKT continue to grow solidly. Global Economics Wrap-Up: October 11, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | Global Economics | Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 \| andrew.tilton@gs.com | | n | | Recent data have st ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Bulks, Base, Steel: LME week confirmed challenges miners face maintaining volumes - risk of guidance 11 October 2024 | 6:47AM BST Europe Metals & Mining The broad monetary easing announced by China coupled with guidance on further easing ahead, led to a financially driven rally in commodities. The shift in sentiment/positioning saw to a significant swing to long positioning in base metals, particularly copper (that saw one of the highest volume weeks in history) and a ...