Summary of the Conference Call on China Steel and Iron Ore Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Steel and Iron Ore** industry, providing insights into consumption trends, inventory levels, and production rates. Key Points Steel Consumption Trends - Apparent consumption of **rebar** continued to decline, while consumption of **flat products** remained relatively high [1] - Downstream consumption for rebar fell further by **10% week-over-week (WoW)**, attributed to holidays and the upcoming **Chinese New Year** [2] Inventory Levels - **Steel inventory** at traders increased by **75,000 tons (kt)**, or **1.0% WoW**, while inventory for long products rose by **2.9% WoW**. Conversely, inventory for flat products decreased by **0.4% WoW** [2] - **Steel inventory** at mills was reported at **3,491 kt**, down **0.3% WoW** [2] - **Iron ore inventory** at small and medium-sized mills increased by **9.9 kt**, or **4.7%**, from the previous week [3] - Inventory at ports decreased by **0.6% WoW**, totaling **142.9 million tons (mt)** [3] Production Rates - The **utilization rate** of 247 mills dropped by **0.58 percentage points (ppts) WoW**, reaching **85.6%** [4] - Average daily output for **long products** decreased by **3.5% WoW**, totaling **2.89 million tons (mnt)**, while output for **flat products** dropped by **0.6% WoW**, totaling **5.41 mnt** [4] - The **iron ore operating rate** at 126 sample mines was **60.9%**, down **3.2 ppts** compared to two weeks prior, with an average daily output of **383.9 kt**, down **5.0%** [3] Market Dynamics - The **steel demand** outlook remains cautious, with the industry facing challenges due to seasonal factors and inventory adjustments [6] - The **CISA (China Iron and Steel Association)** reported that member mills' production was **1.98 million tons per day** for mid-December, down **2.3%** from the preceding 10 days but up **2.5% year-over-year (YoY)** [4] Additional Insights - The **EAF (Electric Arc Furnace)** capacity utilization rate decreased by **0.34 ppts WoW**, reaching **52.45%** as of December 27 [4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains **attractive**, indicating potential for recovery in the medium to long term [6] Conclusion - The China Steel and Iron Ore industry is currently experiencing a decline in rebar consumption and mixed inventory trends, with production rates also showing a downward trajectory. Seasonal factors and market dynamics are influencing these trends, but the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Offshore oilfield services (OFS) * **Company**: COSL (China Oilfield Services Limited) * **Analyst**: UBS * **Date**: 2 January 2025 Key Points Industry Trends 1. **Offshore OFS Utilization and Day Rates**: The offshore OFS industry has been experiencing an upcycle since 2021, driven by rising oil prices and increased capex by global oil companies. Rig utilisation rates have been high, with average day rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships increasing annually since 2022. * [2] 2. **Global Offshore Rig Utilization**: The average utilisation rate for offshore rigs in 2024 was 79%, with jack-up utilisation experiencing a temporary decline in Q324 due to service suspensions in the Middle East, followed by a recovery in Q424. * [2] 3. **Offshore Rig Day Rates**: Day rates for offshore rigs have remained on an upward trajectory in 2024, with rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships increasing by 12%, 8%, and 16% respectively from the end of 2023. * [2] 4. **Global Offshore OFS Demand**: Global offshore OFS demand is expected to remain solid, with day rates for jack-ups, semi-subs, and drill ships projected to increase by 6%, 9%, and 9% respectively from 2026 to 2028. * [3] 5. **Regional Variations**: The Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Australia have seen the fastest growth in average day rates for jack-ups in 2024. Norway has maintained high day rates for semi-subs, with the average leading edge day rate increasing by 23% YoY. * [4] 6. **Rig Suspensions in the Middle East**: Some rigs in the Middle East were suspended from service in 2024 due to service suspensions. However, new contracts have been secured for a quarter of the suspended rigs, and demand is expected to recover in 2026. * [4] 7. **Supply Gap**: UBS expects a supply gap to emerge in 2030, requiring an investment of US$250-400bn/year to fill the gap, accounting for the natural decline at mature fields and the need for new projects. * [19] COSL Analysis 1. **COSL Drilling Business**: UBS has updated its analysis of COSL's drilling business and adjusted its 2024/2025/2026 earnings estimates. The company's drilling segment is expected to experience high growth in 2025, driven by new contracts for suspended rigs and higher day rates for some of its semi-subs. * [5] 2. **COSL Earnings Estimates**: UBS has adjusted its DCF-based price target for COSL from HK$10.80 to HK$10.60, implying a 10x 2025E PE. The company's 2025 net profit growth forecast is 40%. * [5] 3. **COSL Valuation**: COSL's 2025E PE of 6.6x is below the global OFS peer average of 11.9x, and its 2025E P/BV of 0.6x is below the global OFS peer average of 1.6x. * [5] 4. **COSL Rig Contracts**: UBS has provided a detailed breakdown of COSL's rigs subject to contract changes in 2025, including new contracts for suspended rigs and higher day rates for some of its semi-subs. * [40] 5. **COSL Financials**: UBS has provided a financial overview of COSL, including revenue, EBITDA, net profit, capex, EPS, DPS, ROE, and gearing ratio. * [42] Risks 1. **Oil Prices**: COSL's share price tends to track oil prices, which could impact sentiment on the stock. 2. **Deep-water Drilling**: The market may have higher earnings expectations for COSL from deep-water drilling offshore China, which faces higher risks than shallow-water drilling. 3. **Exchange Rates**: If the US dollar appreciates against the renminbi, there could be upside risk to COSL's earnings. 4. **Large Portion of Revenue from CNOOC**: While this represents reliable revenue, there is a risk that COSL may not raise rates in line with overseas peers. * [48]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 06:02 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Secondary Home Prices Weakened In December December secondary home prices in major cities witnessed m-m decline after a two-month up-trend amid diminishing policy impact. In combination with slightly increased listings and seasonality, there could be downside pressure on home sales in 1Q25. December transaction home prices weakened as expected, with -1.1% m-m (-9.8% y-y) in the ~50 sample cities we track (vs. +0.5% in No ...

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: China Consumer Staples, specifically focusing on the snack industry. **Key Themes**: 1. **Channel Shift**: The industry is witnessing a shift towards online and discount channels, with traditional offline channels losing market share. 2. **Pricing Pressure**: Both channels and consumers are adopting value-for-money strategies, leading to pricing cuts. 3. **Traditional Distributors Under Pressure**: Traditional offline distributors are facing challenges, with sales and profit growth slowing down. Company Analysis **Yankershop Food (002847.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Buy * **Key Points**: * Well-positioned to capture growth in snack discounters and major SKUs. * Strong online growth and partnerships with top-tier discounters. * Healthy investment cycle and potential positive catalysts from stronger CNY sales and ongoing discounter openings. * Valuation appears attractive compared to peers. **Three Squirrels (300783.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Neutral * **Key Points**: * Focus on new initiatives aligning with the value-for-money industry trend. * Sales CAGR expected to reach 29% over 2024-26E. * Building up in-house and margin-accretive offline business. * Valuation appears fair at the current price levels. **Chacha Food Co. (002557.SZ)**: * **Rating**: Sell * **Key Points**: * Core business (sunflower seeds) facing sales decline. * Nuts business facing increased competition and margin dilution risks. * Structural margin dilution if nuts continue to lead the company's growth. **Want Want China (0151.HK)**: * **Rating**: Sell * **Key Points**: * Product mix skewed to less healthy flavored milk. * Relatively conservative approach to marketing and distribution leading to market share losses and earnings deterioration. * Overseas market demand outlook relatively strong, but visibility of sales contribution of new product launches and channel expansion remains low. Additional Observations * **Online Exposure**: Snack companies' online exposure is still low compared to other consumer sectors, but has been on a rising trend. * **Discounters**: Fast store openings and consolidation in the discount channel. * **Consumer Trends**: Consumers are increasingly pursuing new products and new tastes, with taste and value-for-money being the most important factors for Gen Z consumers. * **Distributors**: Traditional offline distributors are under pressure, with sales per distributor declining in 1H24. Conclusion The snack industry in China is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards online and discount channels, pricing pressure, and challenges for traditional distributors. Companies like Yankershop and Three Squirrels are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, while companies like Chacha Food and Want Want face challenges and risks.

Industry and Company Overview **Industry**: China Semiconductors **Coverage**: Semicap, Analog, Foundry, Computing **Timeframe**: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook Key Points 1. 2024 Review * **Top Picks**: NAURA, AMEC, Hygon, SMIC, Silergy * **Outperformers**: NAURA (63% growth), AMEC (30% growth), Hygon (106% growth), SMIC (68%/80% growth), Silergy (Market-Perform upgraded in December) * **Misjudged**: Cambricon & Hua Hong rating changes * **Lessons Learned**: Consider both fundamentals and sentiment when making rating changes 2. 2025 Outlook * **Semicap**: * Geopolitical tension to boost domestic substitution * Demand strong, entity list impact priced in * Top picks: AMEC, NAURA, Piotech * **Analog**: * Silergy as a quality long-term investment target * Growth driven by China Auto * Short-term pressure due to weak China demand * **Foundry**: * Upcycle and share gain to boost confidence * Profitability pressure remains * SMIC preferred over Hua Hong * **Computing**: * Export control creates market for local chip vendors * China shifting to inferencing and smaller models * Hygon preferred over Cambricon 3. China WFE Industry * **Demand**: Expected to decline -19% YoY in 2025 due to strong pull forward in 2024 * **Domestic Share**: Expected to reach 28% in 2026 * **Self-sufficiency**: Expected to reach 36% by 2026 * **Local fabs**: Pushing for supply chain resiliency through co-development with local WFE suppliers 4. Key Companies * **NAURA**: * Largest domestic WFE platform * Positive top line projection of YoY +30% in 2025 * GPM expected to improve with higher share from WFE and better mix with advanced node equipment * **AMEC**: * Leader in dry etch, expanding into deposition * Key advanced foundry/memory progress to be major driver of 2025 onwards * Overall localization trend in advanced logic/memory inevitable * **Piotech**: * Rising star in CVD & hybrid bonding * Significant top line upside in 2025/26 * Shipped products up +160% YoY in 3Q24 * **Silergy**: * China's largest analog chip supplier * Leader in Power Analog segment * Expected to grow 26%+ CAGR for next few years * **SMIC**: * Aggressive investments on capacity expansion * Potential on Advanced Node Logic * EPS expected to rebound in 2025 * **Hua Hong**: * Matured node foundry * Potential re-rating as China's matured node foundry enters demand upcycle * ASP expected to increase in next few quarters 5. Risks * Global overcapacity in matured logic * ASP pressure on matured node foundries * Weak demand in certain segments * Technological challenges Conclusion The China semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by domestic substitution, technological advancements, and increased demand for computing and analog chips. However, there are also risks to consider, such as global overcapacity and technological challenges.

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is experiencing a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. [doc id='51'] 2. **Sales Growth**: Weekly primary and secondary market sales have shown significant year-over-year growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.0% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 55% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Price Trends**: Property prices in Tier 1 cities have shown stable growth, with the Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index remaining relatively flat. [doc id='53'] 4. **Developers' Sales**: Developers' monthly sales have shown mixed trends, with some companies reporting strong growth while others experienced declines. [doc id='35'] **Market Segmentation** 1. **Tier 1 Cities**: Sales in Tier 1 cities have shown strong growth, with primary market sales increasing by 16.9% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 36% YoY. [doc id='51'] 2. **Tier 2 Cities**: Sales in Tier 2 cities have also shown significant growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.4% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 66% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Tier 3 Cities**: Sales in Tier 3 cities have shown moderate growth, with primary market sales increasing by 7.1% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 20% YoY. [doc id='51'] **Company-Specific Information** 1. **C&D International**: The company reported attributable sales of 124 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 16% and a MoM decline of 33%. [doc id='46'] 2. **China SCE**: The company reported attributable sales of 10 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 9%. [doc id='46'] 3. **CIFI**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 41% and a MoM decline of 21%. [doc id='46'] 4. **CMSK**: The company reported attributable sales of 189 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 3%. [doc id='46'] 5. **COLI**: The company reported attributable sales of 270 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 31% and a MoM increase of 287 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 6. **Country Garden**: The company reported attributable sales of 44 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 51% and a MoM decline of 30%. [doc id='46'] 7. **CR Land**: The company reported attributable sales of 229 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 7% and a MoM increase of 286 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 8. **Gemdale**: The company reported attributable sales of 63 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 53% and a MoM decline of 14%. [doc id='46'] 9. **Greentown**: The company reported attributable sales of 149 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 10% and a MoM decline of 24%. [doc id='46'] 10. **Jinmao**: The company reported attributable sales of 83 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 31% and a MoM decline of 132 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 11. **KWG**: The company reported attributable sales of 9 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 48% and a MoM decline of 24 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 12. **Logan**: The company reported attributable sales of 8 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 7% and a MoM decline of 23 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 13. **Longfor**: The company reported attributable sales of 93 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 19% and a MoM decline of 162 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 14. **Midea RE**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 21% and a MoM decline of 38 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 15. **Poly**: The company reported attributable sales of 308 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 23% and a MoM decline of 400 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 16. **Powerlong**: The company reported attributable sales of 12 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 13% and a MoM decline of 26 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 17. **Ronshine**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 1% and a MoM increase of 20 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 18. **Seazen**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 71 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 19. **Shimao**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 12% and a MoM increase of 40 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 20. **Sino-Ocean**: The company reported attributable sales of 48 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 37% and a MoM increase of 31 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 21. **Sunac**: The company reported attributable sales of 45 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 54% and a MoM decline of 79 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 22. **Vanke**: The company reported attributable sales of 223 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 34% and a MoM decline of 343 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 23. **Yuzhou**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 58% and a MoM decline of 17 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 24. **Zhenro**: The company reported attributable sales of 6 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 24% and a MoM decline of 14 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 25. **Zhongliang**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 33% and a MoM decline of 32 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 26. **Zhongnan**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 38 million RMB. [doc id='46'] **Conclusion** The real estate market is currently in a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. However, the market remains volatile, with mixed trends observed across different cities and companies. Developers' sales have shown mixed results, with some companies experiencing strong growth while others have faced challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Construction and Materials in China - **Key Focus**: Local Government Special Bond (LGSB) issuance and its impact on infrastructure and property sectors Core Insights and Arguments - **Construction Demand**: There is a seasonal slowdown in construction demand, with planned production of air conditioners, fridges, and washers expected to decline by 1.5%, 6.5%, and 8% respectively in January 2025 [3][3][3] - **Steel Production**: Daily crude steel output from major producers decreased to 1.977 million tons in mid-December, down 2.3% from early December [3][3][3] - **Vehicle Sales**: Passenger vehicle retail sales for December 1-22 reached 1,692,000 units, marking a 25% year-over-year increase and a 14% month-over-month increase [3][3][3] - **Shipbuilding Orders**: Global new shipbuilding orders rose by 23% year-over-year and 39% month-over-month to 4.04 million CGT in November, with Chinese shipbuilders capturing 63% of the market [3][3][3] - **LGSB Issuance**: Total LGSB issuance in December was RMB 21 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to RMB 4.0 trillion, which is 102.6% of the 2024 quota [3][3][3] Infrastructure and Property Sector Insights - **Policy Support**: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) reported that policy-supported housing delivery is expected to reach 3.38 million units in 2024, with 1,790 urban village redevelopment projects initiated [3][3][3] - **Local Government Projects**: Hunan Province commenced 259 major projects with a total investment of RMB 270 billion as of December 26 [3][3][3] - **Cement and Steel Consumption**: Cement shipments in eastern China showed slight weakness, while apparent consumption of long and flat steel products decreased by 5.7% week-over-week [3][3][3] Additional Important Information - **Market Dynamics**: Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities increased by 5.0% year-over-year, while secondary unit sales in 10 cities surged by 58% year-over-year [3][3][3] - **Bond Usage**: The usage of local bonds is primarily directed towards infrastructure, land, and housing projects, with infrastructure accounting for 63% of total bond usage [27][27][27] - **Future Outlook**: Analysts maintain an attractive view on the construction materials sector, anticipating continued support from government policies aimed at stimulating infrastructure and property development [3][3][3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the construction and materials industry in China, particularly regarding local government bond issuance and its implications for infrastructure and property sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Greater China Technology Semiconductors** industry, focusing on various companies within this sector [17][26]. Company Ratings and Performance - **Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating System**: - **Overweight (O)**: Expected total return exceeds the average of the industry over the next 12-18 months [2][3]. - **Equal-weight (E)**: Expected total return is in line with the industry average [2][3]. - **Not-Rated (NR)**: Insufficient conviction about the stock's return relative to the industry [2][3]. - **Underweight (U)**: Expected total return is below the industry average [2][3]. - **Stock Ratings Distribution** (as of the latest update): - **Overweight**: 1,420 stocks (38% of total) - **Equal-weight**: 1,731 stocks (46% of total) - **Not-Rated**: 5 stocks (0% of total) - **Underweight**: 593 stocks (16% of total) [5]. Key Companies and Their Ratings - **Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269.SZ)**: Overweight, price target Rmb130.42 [8]. - **Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460.SS)**: Equal-weight, price target Rmb28.16 [8]. - **JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS)**: Underweight, price target Rmb40.45 [8]. - **Shanghai Anlogic Infotech Co Ltd (688107.SS)**: Equal-weight, price target Rmb33.11 [8]. - **Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK)**: Equal-weight, price target HK$15.64 [8]. - **Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049.SZ)**: Underweight, price target Rmb68.12 [8]. - **Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) (601231.SS)**: Equal-weight, price target Rmb16.45 [8]. - **Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ)**: Overweight, price target Rmb46.65 [8]. Monthly Sales Forecasts - **IC Foundry**: UMC projected sales for December 2024 at NT$17,374 million, reflecting a month-over-month decrease of 13% [25]. - **Semi Materials**: GlobalWafers projected sales for December 2024 at NT$5,911 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 8% [25]. - **IC Design**: Realtek projected sales for December 2024 at NT$10,466 million, with a year-over-year increase of 20% [25]. - **Testing & Packaging**: ASE Technology projected sales for December 2024 at NT$46,300 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 7% [25]. - **Memory**: Nanya Technology projected sales for December 2024 at NT$2,253 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 29% [25]. Analyst Industry Views - The overall industry view for the Greater China Technology Semiconductors sector is categorized as **In-Line**, indicating expected performance in line with the broader market benchmarks over the next 12-18 months [11][26]. Important Disclosures - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that their research is not tailored investment advice and encourages investors to evaluate investments based on their individual circumstances [12][14]. Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry, highlighting stock ratings, company performance, and sales forecasts, while maintaining a cautious yet optimistic outlook on the sector's future performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Equity Strategy** and highlights the current economic indicators and market conditions in China as of December 2024 [2][11][27]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Indicators**: Most economic indicators missed expectations in November, indicating that the economy is still struggling. Retail sales softened to **3.0% y-o-y** (expected **5.2%**), and year-to-date FAI growth slowed to **3.3% y-o-y** [27][36]. 2. **Policy Support**: More proactive policy support is anticipated, particularly for consumption, as indicated by the language used in the December Politburo meeting [27][36]. 3. **Market Outlook**: Despite current challenges, there is a projected **12-18% upside** for the stock market due to ample liquidity and potential earnings improvement from a low base [27][36]. 4. **Bond Market Divergence**: The **10Y CGB yield** fell to a record low of **1.70%**, reflecting a divergence in economic outlook between the bond and stock markets [27][36]. 5. **Sector Performance**: Notable sector data includes a **120% y-o-y increase** in mutual fund issuance and a **143% y-o-y increase** in southbound net inflows, indicating improved market liquidity [27][36]. Additional Important Content 1. **Manufacturing and Infrastructure**: Growth in both manufacturing and infrastructure investment has decelerated, while property investment has become less of a drag, showing a decline of **-11.6% y-o-y** [21][27]. 2. **House Sales**: Monthly sales from the top 100 developers fell **6.9% y-o-y** in November, indicating a return to contractionary territory, although there was a slight pick-up in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities (+0.4% m-o-m) [27][55]. 3. **Global Economic Context**: The US economy shows resilience, but rising unemployment and declining housing demand could pose risks. US CPI was reported at **+2.7% y-o-y** in November, indicating persistent inflation [27][36]. 4. **Sector Earnings Revisions**: Non-bank financials and banks saw the most upward earnings revisions, while real estate and conglomerates were revised down the most [34][36]. Conclusion The report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy, highlighting the challenges and potential opportunities within the market. The anticipated policy support and liquidity improvements could provide a favorable environment for investors despite the current economic struggles.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Date**: December 26, 2024 Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Spending**: Preliminary retail spending estimates for December show an increase of **0.76% MoM**, accelerating from last month's reported **0.20% MoM** [2] - **Core CPI**: The UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects the core CPI to stabilize with an increase of **0.20% MoM**, which is below the US Economics team's preliminary estimate of a **28 basis points** increase [2] - **Headline CPI**: The Nowcast indicates a headline CPI (seasonally adjusted) MoM increase of **0.30%**, influenced by higher energy prices, while the US Economics team's preliminary estimate for headline CPI is a **38 basis points** increase [2] - **Airfares**: There is a noted deceleration in airfares compared to the previous month, while rent CPI continues to increase MoM at a stable rate [2] Trade Dynamics - **Exports and Imports**: Both exports and imports in China are projected to have similar year-over-year growth in December [3] - **Nowcasting Methodology**: The China Nowcasting: Import and Export Value Monitor utilizes non-traditional big data, including maritime and air freight volume data, to model import and export values in USD and their YoY growth [27] Economic Indicators - **ISM Manufacturing Index**: The Nowcast projects the ISM manufacturing composite index to be at **48.0**, aligning with consensus expectations [24] - **Industrial Production**: Overall industrial production is forecasted to decrease by **220 basis points MoM** (seasonally adjusted) for December, with total industrial production YoY estimated at **-0.1%**, an improvement from last month's reported **-0.9% YoY** [24] Additional Insights - **UBS Evidence Lab**: The UBS Evidence Lab is a sell-side team that creates insight-ready datasets, which have been utilized by UBS Research analysts since 2014 to produce thousands of differentiated research reports [5] - **Data Availability**: The Nowcasting data is often available weeks before official government data releases, providing timely insights into economic conditions [27] Important but Overlooked Content - **Analyst Independence**: Analysts responsible for the report certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are prepared independently, ensuring objectivity in the analysis [30] - **Investment Risks**: The document emphasizes that investments involve risks and that past performance is not indicative of future results, urging investors to seek personalized advice [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the China Industrials sector and relevant economic indicators, while also highlighting the methodologies and insights provided by UBS Evidence Lab.