The property sector remained the weak link in the economy. On the one hand, property sales reversed to pick up, by 3.2% y/y versus a decline of 1.6% in October, the first increase since May 2023. On a sequential basis, declines in both the new- (November: -0.2%, October: -0.5%) and second-home (November: -0.3%, October: -0.5%) prices eased for a second month. The NBS said 58 out of the 70 major cities it monitors reported declines in secondary home prices in the month, which improved slightly from 59 in Oct ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the economic outlook for Hong Kong, particularly in the context of US-China trade tensions and China's deflationary pressures [6][7]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth in Hong Kong is expected to decline to **2.2% YoY in 2025** and **1.8% YoY in 2026**, down from **2.5% YoY in 2024** [7][8]. - The decline is attributed to rising US-China trade tensions and increased price competitiveness from Mainland China, which will negatively impact investment and consumption [6][7]. Trade Tensions and Tariffs - The US is anticipated to implement tariff hikes on Chinese goods in phases over 2025-26, which may cap investment growth in Hong Kong due to increased geopolitical uncertainties [7][19]. - The direct impact of these tariffs on Hong Kong's economy is expected to be manageable, as US-China trade accounts for only **6% of Hong Kong's total re-export business**, down from **9% in 2017** [19][54]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to soften to **1.6% YoY in 2025** and **1.2% YoY in 2026**, compared to **1.9% YoY in 2024** [8][29]. - This disinflation trend is driven by weaker domestic retail demand and lower prices from Mainland China, although rising residential rental prices due to immigration may offset some of this effect [8][29]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Constraints - Limited room for counter-cyclical easing is noted, with fiscal reserves declining sharply from **HK$1.1 trillion** in early 2018 to **HK$0.6 trillion** today [9][44]. - The fiscal deficit for FY2024-25 is expected to reach **HK$100 billion**, more than double the initial budget estimate [44][46]. Risks and Scenarios - Key risks include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Beijing's stimulus measures, and geopolitical risks [11][48]. - In a downside scenario, higher market interest rates and universal US tariffs could lead to weaker investment activity and lower asset prices in Hong Kong [12][48]. - Conversely, an upside scenario could see consumption-driven growth in China benefiting Hong Kong's trade, as Mainland China accounts for **56% of the city's goods exports** and **~80% of inbound tourists** [14][48]. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - FDI to Hong Kong has seen a significant decline, dropping by approximately **20 percentage points of GDP** during the 2018-19 period, with a notable decrease in the number of US companies establishing regional headquarters in Hong Kong [53][54]. Housing Market Dynamics - The effective new mortgage rate in Hong Kong is expected to drop to **3.25% by the end of 2025**, which may positively impact the housing market despite high unsold inventory [37][38]. - Residential housing prices are projected to decline by another **5% in the first half of 2025**, followed by a potential rebound in the second half [37][38]. Additional Important Insights - The HKMA is well-positioned to defend the HKD peg, with liquid USD assets maintained at **1.1 times** its liquid HKD liabilities, indicating sufficient cover for potential outflows [10][11]. - The strategic importance of the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS) is emphasized, as it facilitates free capital flows and mitigates financial volatility [57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Hong Kong's economic outlook, highlighting the interplay between external trade dynamics, domestic economic conditions, and policy constraints.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 16 December 2024 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Mixed growth momentum in November Economics China Growth momentum showed a mixed picture in November After better-than-expected growth momentum in October, China had a mixed growth picture in November. Owing to major policy easing in the past several months, property sales growth rebounded to a positive YoY reading with its seasonally adjusted level improving further sequentially, lifting retail sales of related goo ...

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. backdrop). Our top-picks for China consumer industry: Haier, Midea, YUMC, Anta, Tsingtao (H) and CRB. China Nov offline retail sales were up 6.1% yoy, while online went down by 2.7% yoy, due to the early start ...

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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Travel & Leisure Activity Tracker December 6, 2024 10:53 AM GMT Morgan Stanley | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H | | | | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Jamie Rollo Equity Analyst Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 3281 | | | | E ...

ab 6 December 2024 Global Research China Solar Industry China solar biweekly—monthly production to continue to fall in December Polysilicon production could fall 21% MoM in December According to PV InfoLink, mono-grade polysilicon prices for the week starting 2 December declined 1.3% WoW to Rmb39/kg. Based on continued cuts in utilisation rates, Silicon China expects polysilicon production to decrease 21% MoM to 105kt (44GW) in December. However, we estimate this would be higher than wafer demand of 40GW. W ...

ab 6 December 2024 Global Research China Healthcare Expert call takeaways: Turning point for commercial insurance in China healthcare? A more serious push this time; though patience is needed We invited a researcher from the China Health Insurance Research Association to discuss his views on recent efforts by the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) to encourage development of commercial insurance in the healthcare sector. Why now? The expert attributes the move to 1) top down guidance from th ...