更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Charting the course: preliminary 2025 outlook and November review of pricing and volume trends shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Chemical New Materials** sector, focusing on companies like **Tinci Materials**, **Beijing SinoHytec**, and **Valiant Co.** [6][10][14] Company Insights Tinci Materials - Tinci is the largest global producer of **LiPF6** and electrolytes by capacity, with a highly integrated value chain that enhances cost competitiveness [6] - The company is expanding production capacity internationally and has developed additional battery materials such as **LiFSI** and electrolyte additives [6] Beijing SinoHytec - SinoHytec is a leading manufacturer of **fuel cell systems** in China, with strong R&D capabilities and partnerships with major commercial vehicle manufacturers [10] - The company has seen a rebound in market share to approximately **30%** in 2024, despite intense competition [110] - Forecasts indicate a **30% revenue CAGR** for SinoHytec from 2024 to 2026, with cash flow expected to break even by 2026 [110] Valiant Co. - Valiant's OLED material subsidiaries reported significant revenue growth, with **Gem Chemicals** at **Rmb490 million** (+35% YoY) and **Sunera** at **Rmb70 million** (+92% YoY) in H124 [14] - The **Penglai Industrial Park project** is expected to generate annual revenue of **Rmb10.6 billion** at full capacity [14] Market Dynamics - The **LiPF6** sector is projected to see a **20%** increase in demand and a **12%** increase in supply in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in prices after a trough [38] - The electrolyte industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization at the **26th percentile** of its five-year history, suggesting a recovery in prices is likely in H225 [38] Competitive Landscape - Despite nearly a hundred participants in the fuel cell market, the **CR10** (concentration ratio) remains high at **60-80%**, indicating a few dominant players [111] - The competitive advantages for leading electrolyte producers include in-house raw material production and capabilities for overseas expansion [38] Financial Performance and Projections - **Huaheng Biotechnology** has seen a significant drop in share price, down nearly **60% YTD**, primarily due to a **37% YoY** decline in the price of its main product, valine [44] - The company expects a ramp-up in sales for new products like **PDO** and **malic acid** in 2024-25, despite recent earnings cuts [44] Future Outlook - The conference call indicates a positive outlook for the **fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV)** market, with expected sales volume growth of **45%** in 2025, driven by favorable policies and cost parity with diesel [110] - The hydrogen market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations for **H2** to claim **10%** of China's energy consumption by 2060 [110] Conclusion - The China Chemical New Materials sector is poised for recovery and growth, with key players like Tinci and SinoHytec leading the way in their respective markets. The anticipated recovery in prices and demand, along with strategic expansions, positions these companies favorably for future performance [38][110]

Summary of Chinese Media (600373 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Chinese Media - **Industry**: Media - **Current Rating**: Downgraded to Reduce from Buy - **Target Price**: Reduced to RMB 8.40 from RMB 18.70 Key Financial Metrics - **2023 Revenue**: CNY 10,084 million - **2024 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 8,574 million (down 21.4% from previous estimate) - **2025 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 7,676 million (down 33.9% from previous estimate) - **2026 Revenue Estimate**: CNY 8,188 million (down 32.8% from previous estimate) - **2024 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 915 million (down 52.0% from previous estimate) - **2025 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 1,015 million (down 50.2% from previous estimate) - **2026 Net Profit Estimate**: CNY 1,429 million (down 34.4% from previous estimate) [4][44] Core Points and Arguments - **Revenue Pressure**: Revenue from textbooks and supplementary teaching materials is under pressure due to a policy change in Jiangxi Province, where centralized purchasing by schools has been discontinued since autumn 2024 [2][13][42]. - **Earnings Estimates**: The company's earnings estimates have been significantly lowered due to the impact of the policy change, with a projected CAGR of pre-tax profit at 6% for 2024-26, which is below the industry average of 13% [13][46]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The stock is currently trading at a 19x 2025e forward PE, which is above the industry average of 17x, indicating that the stock may be overvalued [13][46]. - **Tax Benefits**: The company is expected to enjoy tax benefits starting in 2025 due to preferential tax treatment for cultural enterprises, leading to a significant reduction in income tax rates [21][13]. Financial Ratios and Changes - **Gross Margin**: Lowered gross margin estimates for 2024-26 by 2.5ppt, 2.1ppt, and 0.9ppt to 40.6%, 40.1%, and 41.3% respectively [20]. - **Expense Ratios**: Increased selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios due to lower revenue estimates [43]. - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap is CNY 18,993 million (USD 2,613 million) [14]. Risks and Opportunities - **Risks**: The primary risk is the continued pressure on textbook sales due to the policy change, which could lead to further revenue declines [42]. - **Opportunities**: Potential for recovery in the textbook business if the company can adapt its sales strategy to target students directly, and growth in the overseas gaming market could provide additional revenue streams [51]. Conclusion - The downgrade to Reduce reflects significant downward revisions in revenue and profit estimates due to policy changes affecting the core business of Chinese Media. The company faces challenges in adapting to these changes while also being overvalued compared to industry peers. Future performance will depend on the successful implementation of new sales strategies and the realization of tax benefits.

Key Points **1. Stock Connect Holdings and Flows**: * **Stock Connect holdings** have increased significantly over the years, reaching $466.73 billion since inception. * **Southbound weekly flows** have been relatively stable, averaging $2.73 billion over the past year. * **Cumulative southbound flows** have been strong, reaching $95.95 billion year-to-date. **2. Sector Analysis**: * **Communication Services** and **Consumer Discretionary** sectors have seen significant inflows, with weekly flows of $1.1 billion and $0.5 billion, respectively. * **Financials** and **Health Care** sectors have also seen notable inflows, with weekly flows of $0.8 billion and $0.2 billion, respectively. * **Industrials** and **Materials** sectors have seen moderate inflows, with weekly flows of $0.3 billion and $0.1 billion, respectively. **3. Top Holdings**: * **Tencent Holdings Ltd** remains the largest holding, with a market cap of $459 billion and a 43% stake. * **China Mobile Ltd** is the second-largest holding, with a market cap of $258 billion and a 99% stake. * **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd** is the third-largest holding, with a market cap of $140 billion and a 58% stake. **4. ETFs and Warrants**: * **ETFs** have seen significant inflows, with the top 10 ETFs having a total AUM of $319 billion. * **Warrants** have seen moderate inflows, with the total warrant market activity reaching $0.7 billion. **5. Market Cap and Performance**: * **Large cap** stocks have outperformed, with the CSI 300 index returning 16% year-to-date. * **Mid cap** stocks have returned 15%, while **small cap** stocks have returned 10%. * **Cyclical** stocks have outperformed **defensive** stocks, with the cyclical sector returning 23% year-to-date compared to 6% for the defensive sector. **6. Margin Trading and Short Selling**: * **Margin trading** has seen significant growth, with the total margin balance outstanding reaching $1.9 trillion. * **Short selling** has also seen growth, with the total short selling turnover reaching $0.4 billion. **7. Index Performance**: * The **HSI** index has returned 16% year-to-date. * The **HSCEI** index has returned 18% year-to-date. * The **A50** index has returned 19% year-to-date. **8. Valuation**: * The **PE ratio** of the **HSCEI** index is at 11.5x, which is at the 67th percentile compared to the 10-year average of 11.1x. **9. Future Outlook**: * The outlook for the Chinese equity market remains positive, with strong fundamentals and supportive macroeconomic conditions. * The market is expected to continue to see strong inflows from both domestic and international investors.

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Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research China's retail sales growth in November slowed down to +3.0% YoY, vs 4.8% in October, below expectations (vs. consensus at +4.6%), partly due to the front-loading effect of 11.11 promotion into Oct sales. Implied recovery pace vs. 2019 lowered to 115%, vs. 119% in October. Exhibit 1: Summary of Retail Sales Trend Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be ...

The property sector remained the weak link in the economy. On the one hand, property sales reversed to pick up, by 3.2% y/y versus a decline of 1.6% in October, the first increase since May 2023. On a sequential basis, declines in both the new- (November: -0.2%, October: -0.5%) and second-home (November: -0.3%, October: -0.5%) prices eased for a second month. The NBS said 58 out of the 70 major cities it monitors reported declines in secondary home prices in the month, which improved slightly from 59 in Oct ...

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. E= Hong Kong Govt. estimate Morgan Stanley Research 5 M Foundation Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 summary M Foundation Hong Kong Economics | Asia Pacific December 16, 2024 09:00 PM GMT 2025 Outlook: Duel Challenges Ahead Real GDP growth is set to moderate in 2025-26, as rising USChina trade tensions and increased price competitiveness in Mainland China weigh on investment and consumpt ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 16 December 2024 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Mixed growth momentum in November Economics China Growth momentum showed a mixed picture in November After better-than-expected growth momentum in October, China had a mixed growth picture in November. Owing to major policy easing in the past several months, property sales growth rebounded to a positive YoY reading with its seasonally adjusted level improving further sequentially, lifting retail sales of related goo ...

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. backdrop). Our top-picks for China consumer industry: Haier, Midea, YUMC, Anta, Tsingtao (H) and CRB. China Nov offline retail sales were up 6.1% yoy, while online went down by 2.7% yoy, due to the early start ...