华能国际（0902.HK） 2025-5-29 星期四 | 目标价： | | 6.12 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 | 价： | 4.93 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | | 24% | | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-5-28 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 4.93 | | 总股本（亿股） | 124 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 1,099 | | 净资产（亿元） | 2,275 | | 总资产（亿元） | 6,377 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 5.73/3.86 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.94 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 华能国际电力开发公司 32.28% 中国华能集团有限公司 13.75% 上海睿郡资产管理有限公司 3.31% 太平洋资产管理 1.8% 相关报告 更新报告-20190801/1024 更新报告-20190430/20210923 更新报告-20200117/0824 更新报告-20220809/20230509 更新报告-20240425/0808 研究部 ...

图片来源：泡泡玛特官网 互联网行业 新视角报告 baogao 报 证 告 全球潮玩市场广阔 国产潮玩厂商突围 研究部 姓名：李承儒 SFC：BLN914 电话：0755-21519182 Email：licr@gyzq.com.hk 请务必阅读免责条款 券 研 究 报 全球潮玩市场广阔，国产潮玩厂商突围 新视角报告 2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 【核心观点】 ➢ 全球潮玩市场正处于高速扩张期 目前全球潮玩市场正处于高速扩张期，根据弗若斯特沙利文报告数据显示，全球玩具 市场规模巨大，并且预计未来将呈现稳定的增长趋势。以 GMV 计，全球玩具市场的 规模从 2019 年的 6,312 亿元增长至 2023 年的 7,731 亿元，三年年均复合增长率达到 5.2%，并预期将进一步增长至 2028 年的 9,937 亿元，未来三年年均复合增长率达到 5.1%。按地域划分，北美、欧洲、亚太地区为前三大玩具市场，2023 年的市场规模分 别达到 2,433 亿元、2,140 亿元和 2,136 亿元。中国是全球玩具最大的生产国家和消费 规模最大的国家之一。近年来，中国人均玩具消费增长较快，但市场规模仍低于美国、 ...

Group 1: Primary Market Performance - The offshore bond market for Chinese entities saw a continued recovery, with 11 bonds issued last week totaling approximately $3.265 billion, primarily in the financial sector[1] - China Construction Bank Hong Kong Branch issued 2 bonds totaling $1.5 billion, marking the largest issuance of the week[10] - China Hongqiao issued $270 million in bonds with a coupon rate of 6.925%, which was the highest pricing for new bonds last week, attracting over $3.2 billion in subscriptions[10] Group 2: Secondary Market Trends - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese dollar bond index fell by 0.05% last week, while the investment-grade index decreased by 0.06% to a latest price of 192.6721[9] - The high-yield index reported a minimal decline of 0.001%, with a latest price of 159.9194[9] - The Markit iBoxx Chinese dollar bond return index increased by 0.02%, with the investment-grade return index rising by 0.04% to 234.1177, while the high-yield return index fell by 0.09%[13] Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators - As of May 23, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.40 basis points to 4.511%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 0.83 basis points to 3.9912%[3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for May reached a three-month high of 52.3, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing activity[37] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 227,000, marking a four-week low, suggesting a stable labor market despite trade policy uncertainties[40]

耐世特（1316.HK） 2025-5-23 星期五 | 目标价： | 7.61 港元 | | --- | --- | | 现 价： | 元 6.14 | | 预计升幅： | 24% | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2025-5-22 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 6.14 | | 总股本（亿股） | 25.1 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 155.2 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 158.5 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 271.8 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 6.64/2.29 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 6.31 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 | 耐世特汽车系统（香港） | 44.03% | | --- | --- | | 北京亦庄国际汽车投资 | 20.92% | 相关报告 研究部 姓名：杨森 SFC：BJO644 | SFC：BJO644 | | --- | | 电话：0755-21519178 | | Email：yangsen@gyzq.com.hk | 买入 主业盈利能力回升，构建完善的线控底盘产品组合 【投资要点】 ➢ 汽车转 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 11.5, representing a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 8.91 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving an operating income of RMB 15.746 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, marking seven consecutive years of double-digit growth. Net profit reached RMB 132.5 million, up 161.8%, with a net profit margin improvement from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 [4][10]. - The company is actively exploring autonomous delivery technologies, having launched drone delivery services in Shenzhen in 2022 and expanding to over 30 cities with more than 100 autonomous delivery vehicles by May 2025. The plan is to increase the average active routes from thousands to tens of thousands [11][12]. - The launch of the "Fengpei Cloud" instant logistics system has reinforced the company's leading position in the industry, enabling third-party logistics services to optimize order management and reduce costs for merchants and small logistics companies [5][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 6.8%, benefiting from increased order volume and network efficiency improvements. The core growth drivers include significant new orders from key accounts, expansion into lower-tier markets, and rapid growth in non-food delivery scenarios [10][11]. - The company’s revenue breakdown shows that B2B delivery services accounted for 57.9% of total revenue, with significant contributions from major clients and a notable increase in active merchants [10][11]. - The financial projections indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of RMB 19.075 billion in 2025, reflecting a 21.1% increase, and net profits projected to reach RMB 232.9 million, a 75.85% increase [8][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 24.5 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 20.15 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, leading to a stabilization of milk prices expected within the year. The report anticipates that the supply-demand dynamics will improve, resulting in a more balanced market by 2026 [2][8]. - The management has guided for a low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, focusing on improving profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures. The company aims for a stable operating profit margin (OPM) and a gradual improvement in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [3][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed slow demand recovery, but a gradual improvement in revenue is expected in the second quarter due to favorable market conditions and lower comparative bases from the previous year [4][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.33, 1.46, and 1.60 HKD, respectively. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025 [6][14]. - Revenue is expected to decline by 10.09% in 2024 but recover slightly in 2025 with a growth of 1.39%. The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39.7% in 2025 [7][10]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to improve significantly from 0.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating with a target price of HKD 3.0 per share, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [5][16]. Core Views - The company's main brands are currently in a period of adjustment, and the effectiveness and sustainability of these changes need further observation. The company continues to be affected by external environmental factors [5][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows slight improvements in operations, although the overall performance remains under pressure due to external conditions [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the turnover rates for the main brands were 3.1, 2.6, and 2.6 times per day for Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiu Mao Jiu respectively, showing year-on-year declines of -0.8, -0.4, and -0.4 times per day. Compared to Q4 2024, there were slight improvements [3][7]. - Same-store daily sales decreased year-on-year by -21.2%, -24.2%, and -18.6% for the respective brands, but the decline showed slight improvement compared to Q4 2024 [3][7]. - Average customer spending was RMB 72, RMB 100, and RMB 56 for the three brands, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.8%, and -1.8% respectively, indicating some stabilization [3][7]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is pursuing a cautious expansion strategy while closing underperforming stores. In Q1 2025, Tai Er opened 1 new store in Hong Kong and closed 26 underperforming stores, while Song Hotpot opened 3 and closed 2. Jiu Mao Jiu closed 2 stores without opening new ones [3][8]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 780, with Tai Er having 610, Song Hotpot 81, and Jiu Mao Jiu 69 [8]. Customer Experience Initiatives - Tai Er is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching new products and a "Heartfelt Service Plan." In March 2025, a new "Fresh" store model was introduced to improve customer satisfaction and dining experience [4][15]. - Song Hotpot has upgraded its product offerings and dining environment to be more customer-friendly, enhancing customer loyalty through promotional activities [4][15]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 0.1, RMB 0.15, and RMB 0.24 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25.4, 16.7, and 10.1 [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment potential for the company, suggesting to pay attention to its growth prospects [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, up 702.1% [1]. - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys [1]. - The company has a robust IP matrix with nearly 50 licensed IPs and plans to add over 25 more, which is expected to drive sales growth [4]. - The gross margin improved to 52.6%, reflecting enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 2.241 billion for the fiscal year, with a significant increase in adjusted profit to RMB 585 million [1]. - The sales of character building toys reached RMB 2.201 billion, while sales of building block toys saw a decline [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "three-full strategy" (full price range, full demographics, globalization) to penetrate deeper into the market [3]. - The company plans to launch 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, focusing on popular IP collaborations [4]. Market Expansion - The company is leveraging over 450 distributors to cover first and second-tier cities while accelerating penetration into lower-tier markets [5]. - Internationally, the company is making strides in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a reported overseas revenue of RMB 64 million [4][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x [6]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through its IP and channel strategies, despite potential industry risks [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 8.68, indicating an expected upside of 11% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant decline in profitability, with a projected 31% decrease in net profit for 2024, attributed to weak demand for float glass, price declines, and substantial losses from joint ventures [3][8]. - The float glass industry is facing pressure from excess inventory and weak downstream demand, particularly in real estate and deep processing sectors, leading to a need for improvement in the supply-demand balance [4][9]. - The company has a competitive advantage in glass deep processing, particularly in the automotive glass segment, which is expected to see continued demand growth in 2025 [5][10]. - The company maintains a stable high dividend payout, with a projected dynamic dividend yield exceeding 5% for 2025 [6][11]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to report revenues of RMB 22.32 billion, a decline of 8.1% year-on-year, with net profit dropping to RMB 3.37 billion [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease to 79.23 cents, with a total dividend of HKD 0.41 per share for the year [3][8]. - The financial outlook shows a gradual recovery in revenues and profits from 2025 onwards, with expected revenues of RMB 23.35 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of 4.6% [7][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable dividend policy and indicates a potential undervaluation of the company with a dynamic PE of approximately 4.3 times and a PB of 0.4 times, alongside a dividend yield of about 7.56% [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.752 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.31%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.46% to RMB 805 million, with basic earnings per share at RMB 0.1006. The proposed final dividend is HKD 0.035 per ordinary share, and the net asset value per share increased by 11.31% to RMB 1.09 [1] - The company plans to add 1GW of new capacity in 2025, supported by a robust project reserve of over 10.75GW in China, which includes approximately 6.5GW of wind power and 4.25GW of solar power. The company has secured 1,399MW of new wind and solar projects globally in 2024 [3] - The proposed secondary listing in Singapore aims to broaden the shareholder base and enhance future financing channels, thereby improving overall liquidity of the company's securities [4] Summary by Sections - **2024 Annual Performance**: Revenue reached RMB 2.752 billion, a 6.31% increase year-on-year, while net profit fell to RMB 805 million, a 16.46% decrease. Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.1006, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.035 [1] - **Project Development**: The company has a strong project pipeline with plans to commission 1GW in 2025. It has acquired 1,399MW of new projects in 2024, with a total project reserve exceeding 10.75GW in China [3] - **Financing Strategy**: The secondary listing in Singapore is expected to enhance the company's financing capabilities and shareholder base, improving liquidity [4] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is considered undervalued with a dynamic PE of 4.3 times, a PB of 0.4 times, and a dividend yield of 7.56%, indicating potential for price appreciation [5]