大型科技股集体上涨，腾讯控股涨1.49%，快手涨1.45%，网易涨1.32%，美团涨1.28%，百度涨1.02%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 76.650 | +5.450 | 7.65% | | 09660 | 地平线机器人-W | 9.120 | +0.600 | 7.04% | | 09863 | 零跑汽车 | 50.500 | +2.740 | 5.74% | | 02015 | 理想汽车-W | 65.450 | +2.400 | 3.81% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 39.300 | +0.880 | 2.29% | | 06618 | 京东健康 | 57.500 | +1.200 | 2.13% | | 01698 | 腾讯音乐-SW | 70.550 | +1.050 | 1.51% | | 00700 | 腾讯 控股 | 614.000 | +9.000 | 1.49% | | 01024 | 快手-W | 66.300 | +0.950 ...

当价格在1100元/吨附近持续震荡时，当前纯碱市场的核心矛 盾，已经从单纯的价格涨跌，演变为不同生产工艺路线之间的 成本竞赛。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月16日上午，郑州商品交易所纯碱期货主力合约SA401在窄幅区间内来回波动。 截至16日下午3点收盘，SA401合约报收于1463元/吨，当日下跌2.66%。这一价格高于主流成 本（1050到1200元/吨）区间。连日来的市场震荡表明，事关成本线的拉锯战仍在持续。 前一交易日（12月15日），该合约收于1126元/吨。而在一周前的12月11日，其1094元/吨的 收盘价曾一度击穿市场心理关口，因该价格已跌近上述成本区间下沿，跌破许多企业的现金成本 （维持短期生产必须支付的真金白银）。 看似平淡的盘面背后，一场"成本线拉锯战"已经打响。其中，拥有资源优势的天然碱法成本可低 于1000元/吨，而占据市场主流的联碱法工艺成本中枢正是1050到1200元/吨，部分老旧的氨碱 法成本则高于1300元/吨。当前价位，恰好使不同工艺企业的盈利状况出现"生死"分野。 作为玻璃、光伏面板等产业的基础化工原料，纯碱价格的拉锯正牵动全产业链。从上游的远兴能 源、 ...

（原标题：纯碱期价：打响成本线拉锯战） 经济观察报记者 王雅洁 2025年12月16日上午，郑州商品交易所纯碱期货主力合约SA401在窄幅区间内来回波动。 市场正在等待下午3点的收盘钟声，以确认价格能否守住1050到1200元/吨这一关键成本区间。 前一交易日（12月15日），该合约收于1126元/吨。而在一周前的12月11日，其1094元/吨的收盘价曾一 度击穿市场心理关口，因该价格已跌近上述成本区间的下沿，并跌破了许多企业的现金成本，即维持短 期生产必须支付的真金白银。 看似平淡的盘面背后，一场"成本线拉锯战"已经打响。其中，拥有资源优势的天然碱法成本可低于1000 元/吨，而占据市场主流的联碱法工艺成本中枢正是1050到1200元/吨，部分老旧的氨碱法成本则高于 1300元/吨。当前价位，恰好使不同工艺企业的盈利状况出现"生死"分野。 作为玻璃、光伏面板等产业的基础化工原料，纯碱价格的拉锯正牵动全产业链。从上游的远兴能源、中 盐化工，到下游的信义玻璃、福莱特，无不密切关注。 华东一家玻璃企业的采购经理向经济观察报表示，他们已将原料库存压缩至仅够一周使用的极限，并暂 停长协采购，完全采取"随用随买、价低者 ...

Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and combating "involution" in competition, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development [6][15] - The report suggests that the cement, glass, and certain consumer building materials industries may see continued optimization in supply-side dynamics, leading to increased concentration and improved profitability [6][15] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a recovery in retail due to high demand for second-hand housing and supportive subsidy policies, with leading companies showing strong operational resilience [6][31] - Long-term demand stability and increasing industry concentration provide significant growth potential for quality leading companies in the consumer building materials sector [6][31] - Key companies to watch include Sanke Tree, Rabbit Baby, Hanhai Group, Dongfang Yuhong, China Liansu, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and others [6][31] Cement - National cement market prices increased by 0.05% week-on-week, with the average price at 355 RMB/ton as of December 12, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 69.17% [6][31] - The report anticipates that cement prices will maintain a slight fluctuation in the future, with industry valuations at historical lows, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others for potential investment [6][31] Glass - Float glass prices are showing mixed trends, while photovoltaic glass inventories continue to rise, with the average price of float glass at 1156 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [6][31] - The report indicates that leading glass companies have low valuations and suggests focusing on Qibin Group, Xinyi Solar, and others for investment opportunities [6][31] Fiberglass/Carbon-based Composites - The market for fiberglass is stable, with direct yarn prices holding steady, while electronic yarn prices have stabilized after previous increases [6][31] - The report identifies leading companies in the fiberglass sector, including China Jushi and others, as having a significant competitive edge [6][31] Market Data and Trends - The report notes that the consumer building materials sector has seen a year-on-year revenue decline of 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in revenue growth rates for leading companies [33][34] - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins hovering at the bottom, indicating potential for recovery as market conditions improve [34][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in the building materials sector as it transitions from a period of intense competition to one focused on value extraction and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Building Materials Sector - Four key investment themes are highlighted: traditional building material leaders emerging from the bottom of the cycle, overseas capacity expansion, high-demand new materials, and policy support for industry consolidation [5]. - Traditional building material leaders are expected to recover first, with a focus on alpha opportunities as the sector stabilizes [14]. - The overseas expansion of building material capacity is driven by high demand in foreign markets, particularly in Africa, where Chinese companies are increasingly investing [20][22]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in real estate indicators expected in 2026, leading to a potential rebound in demand [15]. - Strong alpha leaders in the sector are anticipated to achieve positive revenue growth first, with companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong highlighted as key players [15][16]. - Profit margins are expected to improve in 2026 due to price stabilization, structural optimization, and enhanced operational efficiency [15]. Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with demand expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 [5][25]. - The report notes that the profitability of traditional glass fiber products is on an upward trajectory, with leading companies benefiting from differentiated product advantages [5][28]. Group 4: Cement Industry - The domestic cement market is facing a decline in demand, with expectations of a 7% drop in 2025 and a 6% drop in 2026, while overseas markets remain robust [5][31]. - The report suggests that supply-side policies will play a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with potential profitability improvements anticipated in 2026 [5][36]. Group 5: Glass Industry - The glass industry is expected to see supply optimization as a key theme in 2026, with a slight decline in demand for float glass anticipated [5][40]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is projected to experience a balanced supply-demand situation, with potential profitability improvements if production resumes [5][45].

Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by its heavy asset nature, with leading companies in float and photovoltaic glass having fixed assets and construction projects accounting for approximately 60% and 40% of their revenue respectively [4] - The supply side of the glass industry is subject to strict regulations, with the new 2024 policy prohibiting the addition of new flat glass capacity nationwide, emphasizing a zero-increment approach in key areas [4] - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector, with a forecasted contraction in demand over the next two to three years, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow [5] - The cost structure of the glass industry is heavily influenced by raw materials and energy, which together account for over 80% of total costs, leading to significant profit sensitivity to fluctuations in prices of soda ash and fuel [6] - Leading companies maintain competitive advantages through scale and vertical integration, with significant revenue gaps widening between top-tier firms and others in the industry [7][8] Supply Side Analysis - The glass production process is dominated by the float method, which accounts for 80%-90% of total production, while the upstream consists of inorganic raw materials like silica sand and soda ash [3] - The design lifespan of glass production lines is typically 8-10 years, necessitating continuous production once operational, which contributes to supply rigidity [4] - The cyclical nature of the glass supply side indicates that during upturns, supply is an independent variable, while in downturns, it becomes a dependent variable [4] Demand Side Analysis - The primary demand for float glass comes from housing construction and the automotive sector, with housing being the dominant factor [5] - The photovoltaic glass market is driven by the growth in solar installations and the penetration rate of dual-glass technology, with expectations of continued growth in global and Chinese solar installation capacity through 2030 [5] Cost Structure & Profitability - The profitability of float glass companies has seen a widening gap in gross margins, with leading firms experiencing a 14 percentage point increase to a 20 percentage point difference from 2015 to 2024 [6] - The photovoltaic glass sector shows a smaller margin difference, indicating a more stable competitive landscape compared to float glass [6] Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and integrated supply chains are crucial for leading companies to maintain low-cost positions, with top firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group showing significant revenue leadership [7][8] - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratios for raw materials, such as silica sand, to mitigate cost pressures and enhance profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy stocks have experienced a significant increase, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) rose by 3.81% - Xinyi Energy (03868) increased by 3.57% - Xinyi Glass (00868) saw a rise of 2.83% - Flat Glass (06865) grew by 2.81% - Shunfeng Photovoltaic (01250) climbed by 2.48% - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) went up by 1.90% [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has been officially established through joint investment from several leading silicon material companies [1] - Industry insiders report that the planned retained silicon material capacity for related companies will not exceed 1.5 million tons [1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-metallic building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by heavy asset attributes and continuous production, leading to rigid supply dynamics. The report highlights the structural differentiation between float glass and photovoltaic glass, indicating that the float glass sector is experiencing a downward cycle while photovoltaic glass is entering a growth phase [8][10]. Supply and Production Characteristics - The float glass production process is the mainstream method, accounting for 80%-90% of total production. The industry is heavily reliant on raw materials such as silica sand and soda ash, with fixed assets and construction in progress representing approximately 60% and 40% of total revenue for float and photovoltaic glass leaders, respectively [1][2]. - The glass production lines have a design lifespan of 8-10 years, necessitating continuous operation once ignited, which creates supply rigidity. The report notes that the supply side is influenced by policies that restrict new capacity and require capacity replacement [2][42]. Demand Analysis - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector and automotive industry, with real estate construction area being the leading factor. The report predicts a contraction in float glass demand over the next two to three years, although the decline will narrow [2][3]. - Photovoltaic glass demand is driven by the growth in photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass modules, with expectations for continued growth in global and Chinese photovoltaic installations until 2030 [2][3]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of the glass industry is dominated by raw materials and energy, accounting for over 80% of total costs. Float glass is sensitive to raw material prices, while photovoltaic glass is more sensitive to energy prices [3]. - The report indicates that the gross margin gap between leading and lagging companies in the float glass sector has widened from 14 percentage points to 20 percentage points from 2015 to 2024, reflecting increased profitability for leading firms [3]. Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and vertical integration are key factors for leading companies to maintain low-cost advantages. The report highlights that leading firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group have significantly outperformed their peers in revenue scale, further widening the gap [4]. - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratio of raw materials to reduce production costs, with Qibin Group's self-supply ratio of silica sand increasing from 48% in 2019 to 70% in 2024 [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the float glass sector, the report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group, as the trend of increasing concentration among leading firms is expected to continue [4][10]. - In the photovoltaic glass sector, the report anticipates a wave of small and medium-sized enterprises exiting the market, leading to increased concentration among leading firms like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass [4][10].

Group 1 - The solar energy stocks have generally declined, with notable drops including Sunshine Energy (down 4.71%), GCL-Poly Energy (down 4.42%), and GCL-New Energy (down 2.70%) [1][2] - Citigroup's report indicates that solar product prices remain relatively stable, with cost levels providing potential support, despite a 2-3% decrease in solar glass prices due to inventory pressure and weak demand [1][2] - As of December 4, the average inventory period for solar companies has increased to 31.1 days, more than double the 15 days reported at the end of September, indicating a slowdown in demand for solar installations in China [1][2] Group 2 - Monthly demand for most components is expected to decline in December due to planned production cuts, alongside a recovery in polysilicon capacity [1][2] - Citigroup forecasts limited downside for polysilicon prices, primarily supported by cost levels [1][2] - The report expresses a more favorable outlook for inverter manufacturers, such as Sungrow Power Supply and DAYU, which are expected to benefit from high demand growth in energy storage systems [1][2] - Additionally, polysilicon manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from anti-competitive measures expected to be implemented in 2026, aimed at alleviating overcapacity [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a widespread decline in stock prices, attributed to disappointing domestic installation progress and weakening overseas demand [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinyi Glass (00868) fell by 5.44%, trading at HKD 8.51 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) decreased by 3.98%, trading at HKD 3.14 [1] - New Energy (01799) dropped by 2.96%, trading at HKD 7.2 [1] - Fuyao Glass (06865) declined by 2.63%, trading at HKD 10.01 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - According to SMM, the overall production of photovoltaic modules is expected to decrease by 2.43% month-on-month in November 2025 [1] - Aijian Securities reported that December's terminal installation progress is below corporate expectations, leading to increased inventory levels as component prices rise [1] - Overseas demand is significantly declining as the terminal enters the off-season, and the impact of export tax rebates is diminishing [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - InfoLink indicates that while there is a noticeable reduction in battery cell production, the issue of weak terminal demand remains unresolved [1] - Some battery cell manufacturers are considering further production cuts due to market fluctuations, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing this week [1] - The overall price trend is expected to stabilize in the short term, pending the outcome of negotiations between upstream and downstream players [1]