行业研究报告 私募股权投资行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 金融机构部 高飞 摘要：近年来，国内股权投资市场进入调整阶段，募资金额逐年下降，存续 规模由增转减。在 IPO 监管持续收紧的背景下，股权投资市场投资案例数及金额 缩减明显，退出市场活跃度亦有所下降。 市场上政府背景的私募股权投资公司（以下简称"政府投资基金公司"）表 现活跃。与私募股权投资公司相比，政府投资基金公司更注重政策性目标的实现 以及实缴资金的安全性，通过设立产业投资基金和创业投资基金，扶持当地产业 发展。因资产端表现较为固化，通常政府投资基金公司的负债结构以长期债务为 主。由于付息偿付较为刚性，年度间投退节奏较为均衡，账面现金有规律的来源 于投资完成清算后收益的公司，往往会拥有更稳定的盈利表现。 展望 2024，宏观和政策环境变化引导投资机构投资偏好转变，政府投资基 金投资范围更加明确，私募股权投资行业新增备案规模和数量将持续下降。战略 新兴产业仍将是资本青睐的主要方向。受政策收紧的影响，私募股权投资项目退 出方式将向多维度转变。 1 / 15 新世纪评级版权所有 行业研究报告 一、私募股权投资行业信用回顾 近年来，国内股权 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution industry is **Stable** [1] Core Views - The overall revenue of China's pharmaceutical industry has slightly rebounded in 2024, but profits have declined due to rising raw material costs, intensified market competition, and price reductions for some products [2] - The industry is under short-term pressure, but the decline in performance has significantly narrowed compared to the previous year [2] - High R&D investment continues, with breakthroughs in innovative drugs and high-end medical devices [2] - Government policies support innovation, but the financing environment has led to a decline in investment and financing activity [2] - Policies promoting commercial health insurance and faster commercialization of new drugs are expected to alleviate payment pressures and boost industry growth [2] Industry Performance Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - In 2024 (TTM), the revenue of pharmaceutical manufacturing sample companies declined, except for the chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector, which benefited from the accelerated commercialization of innovative drugs and increased demand for APIs [3] - R&D investment in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has increased year by year, supported by policies encouraging innovation [3] - The overall cash flow and asset turnover efficiency of the industry remain high, indicating good operational efficiency [3] - The capital strength of sample companies has improved due to equity financing and operational accumulation, with asset and liability scales continuing to rise in 2024 [4] - The asset liquidity of sample companies is generally good, with strong support for debt repayment [4] Pharmaceutical Distribution - In 2024 (TTM), the revenue of pharmaceutical distribution sample companies increased slightly, but profits declined due to prolonged payment cycles caused by tight local fiscal funds and increased medical insurance payment pressures [4] - The "Internet + Medical Health" and price comparison platforms are driving the integration of online and offline distribution channels [4] - The financial leverage of sample companies remains high, with short-term debt concentration and significant immediate repayment pressure [4] Bond Issuance and Credit Risk - In the first three quarters of 2024, 21 companies in the pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution industry issued new bonds, with a total issuance scale of 47.912 billion yuan [5] - The net financing of bonds increased by 9.516 billion yuan during the same period [5] - As of September 2024, 71 companies in the industry had outstanding bonds, with a total principal balance of 93.007 billion yuan [5] - Five bond-issuing companies were downgraded due to declining operating performance, liquidity tensions, and poor internal controls, and there were seven default/extension events involving two companies [5] Industry Outlook for 2025 - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to maintain good development prospects due to aging populations, rising chronic disease rates, and increased health awareness [5] - Government support for innovation will continue, with high R&D investment and ongoing breakthroughs in innovative drugs and medical devices [5] - Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate, with resources concentrating in large companies with complete industrial chains, strong economies of scale, and stable supply channels [6] - The pharmaceutical distribution market is expected to slow down, with market share concentrating in leading companies and the development of new business models [6] - The financial conditions and cash flow levels of companies in the industry are expected to remain stable, with faster payment cycles for pharmaceutical distribution companies [6] Industry Structure - The pharmaceutical industry chain is divided into pharmaceutical industry, pharmaceutical distribution, and medical services [7] - The pharmaceutical industry includes chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices [7] - Pharmaceutical distribution includes pharmaceutical commerce and offline pharmacies, while medical services include diagnostic services, hospitals, medical R&D outsourcing, and other medical services [7] - Non-state-owned enterprises account for 83.93% of the pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution companies in the sample [7] Key Factors Affecting Industry Performance - The commercialization of domestic new drugs has accelerated, with innovative drugs entering the market and expanding their market share rapidly [19] - Pharmaceutical exports have grown significantly, with a 3.12% increase in export value in the first three quarters of 2024 [19] - The demand for APIs has increased as downstream manufacturers complete inventory reduction [19] - Some product prices have dropped significantly due to centralized procurement policies [20] - Raw material prices have fluctuated, with traditional Chinese medicine materials rising sharply and chemical raw materials falling [20] - Anti-corruption efforts in the healthcare sector have intensified, delaying procurement and slowing the pace of medical equipment adoption [20] - Sales of COVID-19-related products have sharply declined, impacting the revenue and profits of the in vitro diagnostics and traditional Chinese medicine sub-sectors [21] Sub-Sector Performance - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector benefited from the commercialization of new drugs and increased demand for APIs, with revenue and profit growth in 2024 (TTM) [22] - The traditional Chinese medicine sub-sector saw declines in revenue and profit due to high base effects, price reductions from centralized procurement, and rising raw material costs [22] - The biological products sub-sector faced intense competition and price reductions for HPV and flu vaccines, leading to declines in revenue and profit [22] - The medical devices, medical services, and pharmaceutical commerce sub-sectors showed limited changes in revenue and profit shares [22] R&D and Innovation - R&D investment in the pharmaceutical industry has remained high, with an average annual growth rate of about 20% since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [23] - In 2023, the R&D investment of listed companies in the pharmaceutical and biological sectors increased by 7.57%, accounting for 5.29% of revenue [23] - The number of clinical trials for new drugs has increased significantly, with 4,300 trials registered in 2023 and 2,283 in the first half of 2024 [24] - In 2024, 46 Class 1 innovative drugs were approved, with anti-tumor drugs accounting for 50% of the total [24] - The time for new drugs to enter the medical insurance catalog has been shortened from about 5 years to just over 1 year [25] M&A Activity - In 2024, 11 major M&A transactions were disclosed in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, with a total transaction value of 22.3 billion yuan [31] - The largest transaction was the acquisition of Shiyao Baike by Xinova for 7.6 billion yuan [31] - Policy support for M&A activity is expected to continue, with a focus on improving the competitiveness of leading companies [31] Policy Environment - Policies promoting commercial health insurance and faster commercialization of new drugs are expected to alleviate payment pressures and boost industry growth [37] - The "2024 Key Tasks for Deepening Medical and Health System Reform" focuses on the coordinated development of medical care, medical insurance, and pharmaceuticals [37] - The 2024 National Medical Insurance Catalog includes 1,765 Western drugs and 1,394 traditional Chinese medicines, with an average price reduction of 63% [39] - The DRG/DIP 2.0 payment reform aims to improve the efficiency of medical institutions and promote the transformation of the healthcare system [42] - Anti-corruption efforts in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors have been intensified, with stricter regulations on procurement and sales practices [44] International Market Barriers - The proposed U.S. Biosecurity Act reflects increasing policy barriers for Chinese pharmaceutical companies entering overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. [57] - Although the act has not been formally enacted, it indicates potential challenges for Chinese biotech companies in international markets [57]

Industry Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as **Stable** for 2024 and 2025 [1] Core Views - Domestic sales in the textile and apparel industry continued to grow in 2024, but the growth rate slowed down, while exports showed signs of recovery [2] - The industry faces challenges due to weak domestic and external demand, as well as complex international trade conditions [2] - Inventory levels in the industry increased in 2024, but the pace of restocking was moderate due to weak consumer confidence [2] - Raw material prices fluctuated in 2024, initially rising and then falling, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and energy price changes [2] - Labor costs continued to rise, leading to a shift of production bases and orders to Southeast Asia [2] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by recent policies [2] Industry Performance Revenue and Profit - In 2023, the textile industry's revenue was 2,287.91 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY, while the apparel industry's revenue was 1,210.47 billion yuan, down 5.4% YoY [8] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's revenue grew by 4.0% YoY, and the apparel industry's revenue grew by 2.6% YoY [8] - In 2023, the textile industry's profit increased by 5.9% YoY, while the apparel industry's profit decreased by 3.4% YoY [10] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's profit grew by 4.6% YoY, and the apparel industry's profit grew by 3.9% YoY [10] Production - In 2023, the textile industry's capacity utilization rate was 76.37%, down 0.83 percentage points YoY [18] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's capacity utilization rate rose to 78.3%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY [18] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), yarn, fabric, and apparel production increased by 0.3%, 1.0%, and 3.9% YoY, respectively [18] Domestic Sales - In 2023, retail sales of apparel, footwear, and textiles grew by 12.9% YoY, driven by the recovery of consumer activity [22] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), retail sales of apparel, footwear, and textiles grew by 0.4% YoY, reflecting slower growth [22] Exports - In 2023, textile and apparel exports fell by 8.1% YoY, with textile exports down 8.3% and apparel exports down 7.8% [26] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), textile and apparel exports grew by 2.0% YoY, with textile exports up 4.6% and apparel exports down 0.2% [26] Investment - In 2023, fixed asset investment in the textile industry fell by 0.4% YoY, while investment in the apparel industry fell by 2.2% YoY [28] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), fixed asset investment in the textile industry grew by 16.2% YoY, and investment in the apparel industry grew by 18.2% YoY [28] Inventory - In 2023, the textile industry experienced a destocking cycle, with inventory levels declining from January to July [32] - In 2024, inventory levels in the textile and apparel industry increased, but the pace of restocking was moderate [32] Policy Environment - The industry is focusing on innovation, quality improvement, brand building, and sustainable development, with policies supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [55] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for the textile industry emphasizes technological innovation, brand development, and international market expansion [55] - The "Textile Industry Modernization Action Plan (2022-2035)" aims to increase the domestic market share of textile equipment to over 80% and develop 8-10 internationally renowned fashion brands [57] - The "Textile Industry Quality Improvement Implementation Plan (2023-2025)" targets a 1.3% R&D investment intensity and 70% digitalization rate among large-scale textile enterprises by 2025 [58] Sample Analysis Financial Performance - In 2023, the sample companies' total revenue was 2,814.24 billion yuan, up 2.05% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), revenue was 2,071.15 billion yuan, up 3.64% YoY [67] - In 2023, the sample companies' net profit was 220.30 billion yuan, up 30.01% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), net profit was 165.84 billion yuan, down 8.58% YoY [71] - In 2023, the sample companies' inventory turnover days decreased to 177.36 days, down 3.73 days YoY [75] Financial Leverage - As of September 2024, the sample companies' total assets were 4,812.00 billion yuan, down 0.99% YoY, while total liabilities were 1,903.96 billion yuan, down 3.76% YoY [110] - The debt-to-asset ratio of the sample companies was 39.57% as of September 2024, down 1.14 percentage points YoY [114] Cash Flow - In 2023, the sample companies' operating cash flow was 426.34 billion yuan, up 76.26% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), operating cash flow was 120.78 billion yuan, down 50.73% YoY [121] - In 2023, the sample companies' investment cash flow was -152.72 billion yuan, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), it was -103.43 billion yuan [122] - In 2023, the sample companies' financing cash flow was -173.47 billion yuan, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), it was -279.71 billion yuan [122]

行业研究报告 融资租赁行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 金融机构部 宫晨 任怡靖 摘要： 全国融资租赁行业主体数量继续收缩，融资租赁业务余额继续下降，各类融 资租赁公司发展仍存在一定的不均衡性。 政策方面，金融租赁行业监管政策逐步落地，对金融租赁的监管更加细致， 不断加强对租赁物适格性管理，引导融资租赁回归本源，部分金融租赁公司面临 业务转型压力。商租公司的政策主要体现在政府文件中，主要是引导商业租赁公 司开展绿色租赁、设备租赁和飞机租赁等业务。 债券发行方面，融资租赁行业债券发行规模较上年同期略有下降，非结构化 产品规模略高于结构化产品，非结构化债券发行主体以AAA级为主。新发行非结 构化债券中，2年期AA+主体评级债券发行利率和发行利差的差异最大，9个月 AA+主体评级债券发行利率和发行利差的差异次之。大部分AAA级金租公司发 行利差小于同级别商租公司，不同AAA级商租公司之间存在一定差异，反映投资 者对同是AAA级主体评级的商租公司认可度存在一定差异。 2023年，商租与金租类样本企业资产总额（合计数）仍呈增长趋势，且整体 增速有所回升，但综合类商租样本企业的资产规模出现回落。杠杆水平方面 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as **Stable** for 2024 and 2025 [1] Core Views - Passenger demand in 2024 has largely recovered to 2019 levels, while freight demand continues to grow, with structural adjustments in passenger and freight transportation [1] - The industry faces significant cost control pressures due to rigid depreciation, high fuel costs, and rising labor costs [1] - Large-scale equipment renewal actions and stricter environmental regulations will increase capital expenditure pressures in the medium term [1] - Policy focus in 2024 includes logistics cost reduction, equipment renewal, and the construction of a unified transportation market [1] Road Transportation - Road passenger demand has not fully recovered to 2019 levels due to shifts in public travel preferences and competition from rail and high-speed rail [4] - Road freight demand is driven by domestic economic recovery, but external demand faces uncertainty due to US-China trade tensions [4] - The industry is accelerating its low-carbon transformation, with increased capital expenditure pressures from equipment renewal and station upgrades [4] - Road transport companies face cost pressures from rigid depreciation, rising labor costs, and fluctuating fuel prices [47] Maritime Transportation - Global maritime trade is expected to grow at a low rate, with shipping capacity remaining oversupplied despite some relief from the Cape of Good Hope detour [4] - Shipping rates are expected to remain stable or decline slightly, with increased uncertainty due to geopolitical factors and environmental regulations [4] - Fuel costs remain a significant expense for shipping companies, with oil prices expected to remain volatile [70] - The reorganization of shipping alliances in 2025 will intensify competition in the industry [78] Civil Aviation - Domestic air passenger demand has surpassed 2019 levels, while international passenger demand is recovering but remains below pre-pandemic levels [82] - Air cargo demand has grown, with international cargo showing strong recovery, reaching 148.9% of 2019 levels by November 2024 [83] - The aviation industry faces profitability pressures from fuel price volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, and high capital expenditures [5] - The industry is gradually recovering, with stable passenger and cargo demand supporting credit quality [5] Industry Structure and Competition - The transportation industry is highly concentrated, with state-owned enterprises dominating key sectors such as aviation, shipping, and rail [31] - Road transportation is more fragmented, with many small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to weaker risk resistance [31] - The industry is undergoing a low-carbon transformation, with significant investments in new energy vehicles and equipment [24] - Policy support for transportation infrastructure and market integration is expected to improve efficiency and reduce costs [11] Financial Performance - Sample companies in the road transportation sector show weak profitability, with bus operations incurring significant losses due to public welfare pricing [2] - The industry's debt levels are moderate, with EBITDA providing good coverage for interest payments, and strong cash reserves easing short-term debt pressures [2] - The credit quality of transportation companies remains stable, with 46 bond issuers in 2024, including 21 AAA-rated entities [3]

新世纪评级 汽车行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 汽车 稳定 汽车行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 工商企业评级部 楼雯仪 扈晓瑞 摘要 汽车行业是我国国民经济发展的支柱产业之一，具有产业链长、关联度高、 就业面广、消费拉动大等特性。2024 年在两新政策等积极效应不断显现， 新能源汽车、出口市场继续较快增长之下，1-11 月我国汽车产销均保持 增长。从结构来看，新能源渗透率进一步提高，燃油车销量仍承压；乘用 车自主品牌市占率进一步上升，商用车表现相对疲弱；出口为整体销量带 来显著增量，但出海环境愈发复杂，出口增速放缓。钢材、铝、动力电池 主材等上游原材料价格波动等是影响汽车行业经营的重要因素，2024 年 以来碳酸锂价格在上年大幅下行的基础上筑底趋稳、钢价持续下滑等，加 之汽车零部件国产替代率逐步提升，有利于生产制造企业成本控制，但仍 难以弥补价格战带来的行业利润率承压；长期来看随着行业电动化、智能 化、网联化发展，汽车芯片仍面临需求增长和技术多样化等挑战。近年来 我国汽车保有量已大幅提升，增速趋缓，车企出海有望为我国汽车产业发 展提供更广阔空间，但需关注环保及贸易政策等领域变化 ...

Industry Overview - In 2024, the property insurance industry in China experienced a slowdown in premium income growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.81% for the first 11 months, compared to 7.06% in the same period of 2023 [5][8] - Non-auto insurance premiums grew faster than auto insurance, accounting for 47.40% of total premiums, up from 46.58% in 2023 [5][8] - The industry's profitability improved in 2024, with 53 out of 91 companies showing better underwriting performance, though 57 companies still reported underwriting losses [7][11] Market Structure - The top three property insurance companies (PICC Property, Ping An Property, and CPIC Property) maintained a combined market share of 62.77% in 2024, showing a stable competitive landscape [25][27] - PICC Property remained the market leader with a 31.95% share, while Ping An Property and CPIC Property saw their market shares increase to 18.80% and 12.03%, respectively [25][27] - Small and medium-sized insurers found opportunities in non-auto insurance segments, leveraging differentiated strategies to compete with larger players [28] Underwriting Performance - The median comprehensive cost ratio for 83 comparable insurers was 101.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The top three insurers (PICC Property, Ping An Property, and CPIC Property) reported improved underwriting profitability, with comprehensive cost ratios of 97.27%, 97.60%, and 98.6%, respectively [14][15] - The industry's expense ratio declined, while the loss ratio increased, reflecting stricter regulatory controls on costs and rising claims [11][15] Investment Performance - The insurance industry's investment assets reached RMB 32.15 trillion by the end of Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.06% [16][18] - The annualized comprehensive investment yield for the industry rose to 7.16%, up 3.88 percentage points from 2023, driven by bond market yield declines and stock market gains [16][18] - Property insurers allocated more to bonds, equities, and securities investment funds, while reducing holdings in bank deposits and other assets [17][18] Regulatory and Policy Developments - In 2024, regulators introduced the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of the Property Insurance Industry," outlining 20 measures to promote industry reform and risk management [37][39] - Key policy initiatives included expanding green insurance, improving agricultural insurance, and enhancing coverage for natural disasters [40][41] - The "Action Plan" emphasized stricter expense controls, optimized product structures, and support for emerging sectors like new energy vehicle insurance and smart driving [40][41] 2025 Outlook - Auto insurance premiums are expected to grow slowly in 2025, with non-auto insurance continuing to drive industry growth, particularly in health, agriculture, and liability insurance [44][45] - Underwriting profitability is projected to remain stable, though rising claims from natural disasters and accidents could pose challenges [46][47] - Investment returns may face headwinds due to market volatility, with bond market "asset shortages" and equity market structural trends increasing investment complexity [48][49]

市场运行回顾与 2025 年展望 金融结构评级部 唐诗怡 李佳阳 董仪 潘文杰 徐宇扬 资产证券化市场研究报告 2024 年银行间个人住房抵押贷款资产支持证券（RMBS） 摘要： 2024 年，商业银行 RMBS 基础资产的早偿高峰期出现在 1 月、3 月和 10 月， 全年净融资规模呈大额净流出，存续产品规模几乎"腰斩"。与之相比，公积金 RMBS 全年的还款节奏相对平稳，未出现明显的早偿。 早偿率剧烈波动使得投资人面临再投资风险，也加剧了交易难度，RMBS 全 年二级市场成交活跃度下降，公募基金持仓 RMBS 的热度持续衰减。市场波动 也创造了更多投资机会，二级市场投资人更青睐于次级证券。 受 LPR 下行以及存量房贷款利率下调的影响，RMBS 基础资产加权利率继 续下行，进而影响超额利差。基础资产的累计逾期率总体保持在较低水平，同时 受益于基础资产分布于经济发达区域，城市商业银行表现更佳但分化较明显。此 外，由于基础资产本金余额大幅下降，商业银行 RMBS 基础资产的逾期比率整 体呈现上升态势。 展望 2025 年，房地产市场尚处于复苏的初期阶段，商业银行 RMBS 发行规 模大幅提升的可能性较小。鉴于 ...

政策评论 浅析《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》及其对 ABS 的影响 金融结构评级部 陈洁 摘要： 国家金融监督管理总局（以下简称"金管总局"）1 月 17 日发布了《小额贷 款公司监督管理暂行办法》（以下简称"《暂行办法》"或"办法"），办法旨在规 范小额贷款公司行为，加强监督管理，防范化解风险，促进小额贷款公司稳健经 营、健康发展。 近年来，小额贷款在金融市场中迅速发展，为小微企业、个体工商户、农户 和个人消费者等提供了重要的融资支持。然而，随着行业的发展，也出现了一些 问题，如不当营销、乱收费、侵犯消费者权益等。 目前，小额贷款市场的参与主体主要包括消费金融公司、商业银行和小额贷 款公司。针对消费金融公司，金管总局在 2024 年 3 月修订发布了《消费金融公 司管理办法》。在 2024 年 5 月，金管总局又接着下发了《进一步规范股份制银行 等三类银行互联网贷款业务的通知》，加强了对商业银行相关业务的监管。相较 于消费金融公司和商业银行这两类金融机构，小额贷款公司的市场主体数量较多， 面临的合规和监管问题也更为严峻和复杂。此次，作为小额贷款市场监管三块拼 图中的最后一块，我们认为《暂行办法》的发布拉齐 ...

新世纪评级 技术硬件与设备行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 技术硬件与设备 稳定 技术硬件与设备行业 2024 年信用回顾与 2025 年展望 工商企业评级部 王婷亚 郝泽 摘要 技术硬件与设备行业的发展与宏观经济景气度关联较为密切，2023 年第 四季度以来，全球经济景气度有所好转但增长动力不强，我国则面临有效 需求不足、市场预期偏弱等问题，技术硬件与设备行业仍面临一定压力， 但受益于补库周期、AI 技术及产品的推动，行业整体情况有所好转。子 行业层面，2023 年第四季度以来，随着厂商库存出清以及下游需求回暖， 手机、笔记本电脑等终端产品出货量均实现连续四个季度同比回升；通信 系统设备、服务器等产品受益于 AI 技术、5G 建设、云计算等的发展，需 求仍有一定支撑，其中 AI 相关产品需求较好，传统子产品则面临一定压 力；电子设备、仪器和元件行业涉及的产品种类及下游应用领域较多，细 分产品景气度取决于下游行业景气度和细分产品供需平衡等综合水平， 整体来看，与物联网、AI 终端产品相关的子行业增长具备一定支撑。 政策方面，我国仍有多项政策支持电子信息制造业的发展，技术硬件与设 备行业面临较好的 ...