新世纪评级 2025 年度新质生产力系列文章 电动化与智能化重塑价值体系：我国新能源汽车产 业链信用质量及其变化趋势浅析 工商企业评级部 楼雯仪 摘要 新能源汽车产业是我国"新质生产力"的重要载体，电动化与智能化 为新能源汽车的核心驱动力。2024 年我国新能源汽车年产销首次突 破 1000 万辆，渗透率达 40.9%，全球领先地位稳固。同时，我国新 能源汽车产业链核心环节快速成长，竞争加剧；供应链国产化率提升， 企业间表现分化加大。 细分来看，（1）整车环节，行业集中度较高但整体盈利能力不足，除 头部企业外竞争格局仍在动态调整，优势企业通过规模化降本、垂直 化整合等稳固市场地位，较弱企业面临淘汰风险。（2）电动化环节， 动力电池、电驱系统及锂电材料领域技术突破和成本控制成为企业竞 争关键，市场格局向本土企业集中。（3）智能化方面，软件定义汽车 趋势下，智能驾驶及智能座舱渗透率提高，但核心技术突破、商业化 进展仍是行业痛点。 整体来看，政策支持、技术驱动、市场扩张共同推动我国新能源汽车 产业成长，但市场竞争加剧、出口市场复杂性、技术迭代及成本压力 等因素对产业链信用质量构成挑战。我国新能源汽车产业链行业信用 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the mechanical industry, highlighting the transition towards new productive forces and technological innovation as key drivers for growth and credit quality improvement. Core Insights - The development of new productive forces is driving technological innovation and structural upgrades in the mechanical industry, creating new market demands and business models [2][4][5]. - Key areas of growth include industrial humanoid robots, industrial 3D printing equipment, low-altitude economic industrial drones, AGV intelligent logistics, and high-precision military products, all of which exhibit high growth potential and are becoming new growth engines for the industry [2][4][12]. - The mechanical industry is accelerating its shift from traditional energy to new productive forces, with significant impacts on revenue and operational efficiency from technological investments [2][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Mechanical Industry's Transformation - The mechanical industry is experiencing a comprehensive impact from the development of new productive forces, which is fostering technological innovation and structural upgrades [4][5]. - New productive forces are characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, leading to a systemic leap in production methods and significant improvements in overall productivity [5][6]. 2. Performance of New Productive Forces in the Mechanical Industry - The report identifies several key areas where new productive forces are manifesting, including the establishment of technology innovation platforms, the construction of intelligent factories, and the adoption of remanufacturing technologies [18][20][24]. - The intelligent factory projects have shown significant improvements in productivity and efficiency, with examples such as SANY Heavy Industry achieving a fourfold increase in per capita output [20][22]. 3. Representative Fields and Distribution of New Productive Forces - The report highlights the industrial humanoid robots, industrial 3D printers, low-altitude economic drones, AGV intelligent logistics, and high-precision military products as key sectors driving the mechanical industry's future growth [28][29][39]. - The market for industrial humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a global market size of $38 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and robotics [38]. 4. Impact of Technological Factors on Credit Quality in the Mechanical Industry - Technological investments are expected to enhance credit quality in the long term, with pathways including improved market share, cash flow stability, and asset value enhancement [79][82]. - The report presents a quantitative analysis showing that the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in the mechanical industry is 1.78%, indicating a shift towards new productive forces [82][84]. 5. Trends in Credit Quality in the Mechanical Industry - The overall credit quality of the mechanical industry is improving, with significant differentiation among companies during the transition period [91]. - New productive forces are associated with high growth and high added value, leading to enhanced credit quality through improvements in cost structure, profit margins, and market responsiveness [91].

新世纪评级 2025 年度新质生产力系列文章 1 新世纪评级 2025 年度新质生产力系列文章 一、 科技赋能将加快关键精细化工材料国产化进程并提升 生产效率 智能时代的精细化工革命：技术要素驱动下的行业信 用质量及其变化趋势浅析 工商企业评级部 何婕妤 摘要 新质生产力推动下，精细化工行业注重技术创新和转型升级，绿色化、 智能化、高端化成为精细化工行业发展的新趋势，科技赋能精细化工 研发与生产，或将加快关键材料国产化进程及提升生产效率。 在政策扶持下，人形机器人、半导体等行业迎来较好的发展前景，相 关化工新材料被我国列为关键战略材料，国产替代进程加速，成为精 细化工企业转型升级方向。 科技赋能转型升级过程中，精细化工企业信用质量核心驱动力主要集 中于技术壁垒与产品竞争力、研发强度与成果转化、环保投入与绿色 生产、信息化覆盖强度。 未来精细化工企业将不断提升技术创新水平，以应对市场竞争和政策 要求。特别是延链提质的精细化工企业有望迎来量利齐升。精细化工 行业龙头企业的综合竞争优势将进一步凸显，具有突出技术和产品优 势的细分领域中小型企业也将获得更多支持；但一些技术装备水平相 对落后、产品同质化竞争的行业内企业 ...

Group 1: Development of New Quality Productivity - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes the importance of developing new quality productivity, ranking it as the second key task for the year[2] - Three main directions for developing new quality productivity are outlined: nurturing emerging and future industries, upgrading traditional industries, and stimulating digital economy innovation[9] - Emerging industries highlighted include commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, while future industries include biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G[9] Group 2: Innovation in High-Tech Zones - The report mentions accelerating innovation development in national high-tech zones, which currently host 33% of high-tech enterprises, 46% of specialized "little giant" companies, and 67% of unicorns in China[5] - A total of 178 national high-tech zones will be prioritized for funding and resources to support the development of emerging and future industries[5] Group 3: Upgrading Traditional Industries - The report proposes expanding the scope and lowering barriers for traditional industry upgrades, with a focus on major technological renovations and large-scale equipment updates[6] - An allocation of 200 billion yuan in long-term special bonds is planned to support equipment renewal projects, increasing funding by 50 billion yuan from the previous year[6] Group 4: Digital Economy and Talent Development - The report stresses the importance of the digital economy, advocating for the integration of digital technologies with traditional industries to enhance productivity[7] - Talent is identified as a decisive factor for developing new quality productivity, with a significant gap in skilled personnel in key areas like AI and quantum information[8]

宏观经济评论 经济目标稳中求进 宏观政策效能提升 研发部 孙田原 摘要：《2025 年国务院政府工作报告》维持了 5.0%左右的经济增长目标， 体现了稳中求进、以进促稳的整体经济发展要求；物价涨幅目标有所下调，但 在当前物价形势下仍展现了政府改善供求关系、使价格总水平处适当回升的目 的；提高能耗水平下降的要求将进一步推动新能源和循环经济等行业的发展。 宏观经济政策将进一步发力，提升政策效能：财政支持力度显著加大，赤字率 提升至 4%，专项债和特别国债发行规模均有所增加；货币政策适度宽松，适时 降准降息保持流动性合理充裕，保证社融增速下限，并通过结构性政策进一步 促进金融机构服务实体经济，支持经济发展；同时，政策将更加注重民生保障， 政府及各部门将加强协调配合，增强经济政策和非经济性政策取向一致性，打 好政策"组合拳"。 2025 年 3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大三次会议开幕，国务院总理李强代表国 务院向会议作 《2025 年国务院政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》 首先肯定了 2024 年全年获得的成绩，指出全年经济社会发展主要目标任务顺利 完成，同时也坦言全年成绩来之不易，面临诸多问题和挑战，包 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the highway REITs sector in 2024, reflecting a weak recovery in the macro economy and various operational challenges [1][14]. Core Insights - The overall performance of highway REITs is under pressure due to factors such as macroeconomic conditions, extreme weather, and increased road construction [1][14]. - The performance of highway REITs varies significantly by region, with those in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Zhejiang Merchants and Huatai Jiangsu, showing better results [1][14]. - The secondary market performance of highway REITs has lagged behind other asset classes, with notable products like CICC Shandong and Guojin China Railway showing annual increases of 26.51%, 23.97%, and 14.44% respectively [1][14]. - The cash distribution rates for most REITs exceeded 5%, outperforming risk-free rates, with significant investor interest from broker proprietary trading and insurance [1][14]. Industry Overview Important Policies - The Ministry of Transport announced a legislative work plan for 2024, including revisions to the toll road management regulations, which are expected to positively impact the highway sector [2]. Industry Analysis - The operational performance of highway REITs is influenced by public travel preferences and competition from other transport modes, with a recovery in passenger traffic observed in 2023 [3][4]. - In 2023, the operational highway passenger volume reached 4.573 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.94%, while freight volume was 40.337 billion tons, up 8.75% [3][4]. - The total highway mileage in China reached 5.4368 million kilometers by the end of 2023, with an expected addition of 50,000 kilometers in 2024 [4]. 2024 Highway REITs Issuance - Four new highway public REITs were launched in 2024, including E Fund Shen High-Speed REIT and Huaxia Nanjing Traffic REIT, with total issuance amounts of 2.048 billion, 5.7 billion, 2.727 billion, and 3.497 billion respectively [7][8]. 2024 Highway REITs Operational Performance Analysis Overall Performance - In 2024, only Zhejiang Merchants and Huatai Jiangsu REITs reported year-on-year growth in traffic volume, while others experienced declines, with significant drops noted for CICC Anhui and Guojin China Railway REITs [12][14]. - The overall cash distribution rates for highway REITs remained stable, with some projects like Zhejiang Merchants maintaining higher rates compared to others [18]. Individual Product Performance - The report details the performance of various REITs, highlighting declines in revenue and net profit across the board, with specific figures for each REIT provided [21][24][28][33][37][41][46][51].

我国地方两会已于 2025 年 1 月陆续召开，各地对 2024 年的经济发展情况作 出了总结，并制定了 2025 年的相关的工作目标。2024 年，21 地经济增速超过 5.0%，为全国经济增长做出正向贡献，2025 年各地制定工作目标中展示了"稳 增长、调结构、促创新、防风险"的主基调，从释放的信号来看，2025 年我国经 济将从扩大内需、培育新质生产力、区域协调发展以及地方化债等多个角度着手， 推动整体经济发展平稳向好，同时根据各地对 2025 年经济增长的目标推测，全 年我国经济增长目标预计在 5%左右。 宏观经济评论 从地方两会看 2025 年经济发展走势 研发部 孙田原 郭文硕 一、全年经济增长目标预计在 5%左右 截至 2025 年 1 月 24 日，我国 31 个省、直辖市和自治区两会均已召开，两 会中各地《政府工作报告》中对 2024 年的经济发展情况作出了总结，并制定了 2025 年的相关的工作目标。 2024 年我国整体经济增速为 5.0%，从各地区公布的数据来看，有 23 个省、 市及自治区全年经济增速在 5.0%及以上，为全国的经济增长做出了正向贡献。 其中，经济大省中的江苏、四川、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is negative [1] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing growth in total output value for 2024, but the decline in new contract amounts has widened compared to 2023, indicating potential further downward pressure on future output growth [2][6] - The industry is primarily driven by two downstream investment demands: real estate and infrastructure. While real estate investment is showing signs of contraction, infrastructure investment continues to provide support [2][11] - The market share of leading state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is high and has been increasing, demonstrating strong resilience, while many small and medium-sized enterprises face greater challenges [2][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total output value of the construction industry is projected to reach 32.65 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.90%, a decrease of 1.90 percentage points from the previous year [7][11] - New contract amounts are expected to decline further, with a cumulative total of 33.75 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.21% [7][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with total sales area dropping by 12.90% year-on-year and total sales value decreasing by 17.10% [14] - New construction area is expected to decline by 23.00% in 2024, while completed area is projected to decrease by 27.70% [14] Infrastructure Sector - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 4.40% year-on-year in 2024, with significant growth in water conservancy and railway construction, while public facility management investments are declining [17][22] - The investment growth rates for water management and railway sectors are 41.70% and 13.50%, respectively, while public facility management is facing a decline of 3.10% [17] Overseas Engineering - The value of new contracts for overseas engineering projects has significantly increased, with a total of 198.79 billion USD in new contracts signed in 2024, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year growth [24] - Chinese construction enterprises are primarily focusing on "Belt and Road" countries, with a notable gap in overseas business management and risk control compared to Western firms [24][26] Policy Environment - The government is promoting high-quality development in the construction industry through policies aimed at industrialization, digitalization, and green transformation [38][40] - Recent regulations, including the PPP new rules, aim to ensure orderly implementation of projects and address potential risks associated with project financing [41][43]

Investment Rating - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operation industry is rated as stable for 2024 and 2025 [1] Core Insights - The domestic tourism market has fully recovered since 2024, but growth has slowed, primarily focusing on local and nearby travel, while international tourism is accelerating recovery due to policy optimization [2][13] - The tourism scenic area industry has entered a phase of healthy growth after a rapid rebound, although the growth rate of visitor numbers has slowed or slightly declined, necessitating upgrades for traditional scenic areas [2][43] - The hotel industry is experiencing intensified competition and slightly weaker growth, with a trend towards branding, chain operations, and group development [2] - Policy adjustments since 2024 have shifted focus from demand-side to a balanced approach addressing both demand and supply, promoting high-quality development in the tourism sector [2][7] - Sample enterprises in the industry show a slowdown in revenue growth since 2024, but operational resilience is expected to continue due to policy support and supply-demand fundamentals [3][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operation industry is a collection of industries that develop and provide services based on cultural and tourism resources, focusing on tourism services such as accommodation, dining, and entertainment [5][6] - The industry has been increasingly recognized as a strategic pillar of the national economy, contributing over 10% to GDP during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [7][8] Market Performance - In 2023, domestic tourism saw a significant recovery, with total trips and spending increasing by 93.3% and 140.3% respectively, recovering to 81.4% and 85.8% of 2019 levels [14] - For 2024, domestic trips and spending are projected to grow by 14.8% and 17.1%, reaching 5.75 trillion yuan, with recovery rates of 100.4% and 93.5% compared to 2019 [14][15] Financial Analysis - The overall debt scale of sample enterprises continues to grow, with financial leverage increasing, particularly in the cultural tourism infrastructure and hotel sectors [3][35] - The industry shows significant credit quality differentiation, with 15 entities issuing bonds in 2024, including 6 rated AAA and 6 rated AA+ [3] Future Outlook - In 2025, tourism consumption demand is expected to expand further due to policy stimuli, with the industry anticipated to develop steadily [4][30] - The international tourism market is projected to recover rapidly, supported by policy optimization and demand release [4][17] Structural Challenges - The tourism supply system is large but faces structural inadequacies, with a need for quality upgrades to meet diverse consumer demands [29][30] - The industry is characterized by high capital intensity and sensitivity to policy changes, with large enterprises showing better resilience and recovery capabilities [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electricity production industry as stable for 2024 and 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The electricity industry in China is experiencing robust growth in demand and supply, with a projected increase in total electricity consumption of approximately 7% in 2024, reaching 9.9 trillion kilowatt-hours [2][6]. - The industry is undergoing a green and low-carbon transformation, with a significant focus on clean energy sources such as solar and wind power, which are expected to dominate new installations [2][12]. - The profitability of coal-fired power plants is stabilizing due to the implementation of a two-part electricity pricing policy and the ongoing transformation towards cleaner energy [2][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electricity production industry encompasses generation, transmission, distribution, and supply, with a notable shift towards clean energy sources [5]. - The structure of electricity consumption is evolving, with a decline in industrial usage and an increase in demand from strategic emerging industries and modern services [5][7]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Total electricity consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, driven by economic recovery and favorable weather conditions [6]. - The electricity supply is expected to remain balanced, with a forecasted total installed capacity of approximately 33.2 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, marking a 13.5% increase [13]. Installed Capacity and Investment - The installed capacity of clean energy sources, particularly solar and wind, is growing rapidly, with solar power installations increasing by 48.3% and wind power by 19.8% in the first three quarters of 2024 [12][32]. - Investment in power generation infrastructure has seen a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with significant growth in both coal and clean energy investments [17]. Policy Environment - The Chinese government continues to implement policies aimed at promoting clean energy, enhancing electricity market reforms, and ensuring energy security [46][49]. - The introduction of a two-part pricing mechanism for coal power is expected to stabilize profitability for coal-fired power plants while encouraging efficiency improvements [51]. Financial Performance - The overall profitability of the electricity sector is improving, with major state-owned enterprises showing positive performance due to lower coal prices and the new pricing policy [58]. - The sample companies in the report represent a significant portion of the national installed capacity, indicating a high market concentration [58].