区域研究报告 陕西省及下辖各市经济财政实力与债务研究（2024） 公共融资部 严奇昊 经济实力：陕西省位于中国西北内陆，是全国重要的重工业基地，能源化工、 装备制造和有色冶金等传统产业较为发达，经济总量在全国各省中处于中游水平。 2023 年陕西省实现生产总值 3.38 万亿元，全国各省（区、市）排名第 14 位，但 在复杂严峻的内外部环境下，经济增长压力加大，当年经济增速低于全国水平。 从经济增长动力结构看，2023 年陕西省民间投资活力不足，房地产开发投资持 续回落，使得固定资产投资增速下滑明显，同时进出口需求不振，主要依靠消费 市场带动经济增长。2024 年上半年度，陕西省实现地区生产总值 1.63 万亿元， 同比增长 4.3%。 陕西省三大地区资源禀赋存在差异，经济发展呈现分化格局。关中地区产业 门类较为丰富，支柱产业囊括高新技术、装备制造、有色冶金、能源化工、食品 加工等行业，系全省经济的中坚力量；其中西安市生产总值为 1.20 万亿元，约占 全省地区生产总值的三分之一，在全省经济规模中处于绝对领先地位。陕北地区 的榆林和延安两市均为典型的资源型城市，以煤炭采选和石油天然气开采为支柱 产业，2023 ...

Economic and Fiscal Strength of Shandong Province - Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 9.2 trillion yuan in 2023, ranking third in China with a growth rate of 6.0%, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1][13] - The province's investment, consumption, and import-export growth rates in 2023 were 5.2%, 8.7%, and 1.7% respectively, with consumption showing a significant recovery [1] - In the first three quarters of 2024, Shandong's GDP reached 7.2 trillion yuan, maintaining its third position nationally with a growth rate of 5.6%, again 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average [1][13] Economic Performance of Shandong's Cities - Qingdao led the province with a GDP of 1.58 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 17.1% of the province's total GDP, followed by Jinan with 1.28 trillion yuan [2] - Yantai became the third city in Shandong to surpass 1 trillion yuan in GDP, reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in 2023 [2] - Most cities in Shandong saw investment growth in single digits, while consumption growth rebounded significantly, with growth rates between 6% and 12% [2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Shandong's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 746.48 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, ranking fifth nationally with a tax ratio of 70.1% [2][28] - Government fund budget revenue declined by 19.0% to 492.54 billion yuan in 2023 due to a downturn in the land market [3][28] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the general public budget revenue grew by 3.6% to 606.51 billion yuan, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 67.1% [3][28] Debt Situation - Shandong's government debt balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, a 16.5% increase from the previous year, surpassing Jiangsu to become the second-largest in China [6][7] - The debt balance was 3.9 times the general public budget revenue, ranking 16th nationally in terms of debt coverage [7] - Qingdao and Jinan had the highest government debt balances at 362 billion yuan and 318.04 billion yuan respectively, with debt growth rates exceeding 20% in some cities [8][82] Urban Investment Bonds - Shandong's urban investment bond issuance in 2023 was 324.8 billion yuan, a 39.7% increase from 2022, ranking fourth nationally [87] - Qingdao led with 97.65 billion yuan in issuance, followed by Jinan with 78.14 billion yuan [88] - By the end of September 2024, the issuance of urban investment bonds reached 266.72 billion yuan, with some cities like Binzhou and Dongying exceeding their 2023 full-year issuance levels [87]

信用评论 《金融租赁公司管理办法》解读 金融机构部 宫晨 概要：2024 年 9 月，国家金融监督管理总局发布了《金融租赁公司管理办法》（以下简 称"《办法》"）。相较于 2024 年 1 月发布的《征求意见稿》，《办法》涉及的主要调整 包括：商业银行和国有金融资本投资、运营公司作为主要出资人的要求略有下降，新增加了 国有资本投资、运营公司作为主要出资人的条件，对股东义务的要求有所加强，投资范围新 增了同业存单等。同时，考虑到部分金融租赁公司整改难度较大，《办法》修订了整改要 求。相较于《金融租赁公司管理办法》（中国银监会令 2014 年第３号），《办法》提高了 金融租赁公司最低注册资本和出资人要求，夯实了股东义务，规范了金融租赁公司的业务经 营规则，加强金融租赁公司的公司治理、风险管理等方面的监管。整体来看，新设金融租赁 公司难度大幅增加，《办法》要求大股东对金融租赁公司控股，可以压实股东责任，降低出 现公司治理问题的风险；业务方面加强租赁物的适格性管理，引导金融租赁公司回归"融资 +融物"本源。 新世纪评级版权所有 为全面加强金融监管、优化金融服务、防范化解风险，金融监管总局在广泛调研、全面总 结经验教训 ...

Economic Strength of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is one of the most economically developed regions in China, with a GDP of 12.82 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1][8] - The industrial economy remained stable, with advanced manufacturing showing relatively good growth, and the service sector maintaining a robust position [1][8] - In 2024, the GDP growth rate for the first three quarters was 5.7%, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][8] Regional Economic Differences - In 2023, the GDP ranking of cities in Jiangsu remained unchanged, with significant economic disparities between regions [2] - Southern Jiangsu cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi had GDPs exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while northern Jiangsu cities had smaller economies [2][32] - Economic growth rates across cities ranged from 4.6% to 10.2%, with most cities experiencing steady growth in 2024 [2][32] Fiscal Strength - Jiangsu's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 993.018 billion yuan, a 7.25% increase year-on-year, with tax revenue accounting for 80.33% [2][21] - Government fund revenue, mainly from land sales, declined by 10.13% in 2023 due to the downturn in the real estate market [2][21] - The fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 65.15%, ranking fifth nationally [2][21] Debt Situation - Jiangsu's government debt balance at the end of 2023 was 2.273 trillion yuan, a 9.85% increase year-on-year, ranking third nationally [6][71] - The debt-to-revenue ratio was 2.29 times, indicating relatively low debt pressure compared to other provinces [6][71] - Urban investment bonds and interest-bearing debt remained high, with a total of 7.99 trillion yuan in 2023, posing significant repayment pressure [6][88] Industrial Structure - Jiangsu's industrial structure shifted to a "three-two-one" pattern, with the tertiary sector accounting for 51.6% of GDP in 2023 [16] - Advanced manufacturing, particularly in equipment manufacturing, grew by 7.8%, contributing 53.4% to industrial added value [16][17] - Key industries such as automobiles, electrical machinery, and new energy products showed strong growth [16][17] Service Sector Performance - The service sector remained a pillar of the economy, with a 5.1% growth in 2023, accounting for 51.6% of GDP [18] - Transportation and tourism rebounded strongly, with passenger traffic increasing by 54.4% and tourism revenue by 45.7% [18] - Financial and postal services maintained stable growth, with financial institution deposits and loans increasing by 12.9% and 14.6%, respectively [18] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu grew by 5.2% in 2023, with private investment accounting for 66.5% of the total [18] - Real estate investment declined by 4.2%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous year [18] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.5%, with online retail sales accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [19] Foreign Trade - Jiangsu's foreign trade declined in 2023, with total import and export volume decreasing by 3.2% [20] - Export volume fell by 2.5%, while import volume dropped by 4.3% [20] - In 2024, the decline in foreign trade continued, with a 9.0% drop in real estate development investment in the first three quarters [20] Urban Economic Indicators - Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi led in GDP, with Suzhou's GDP reaching 2.47 trillion yuan in 2023 [39] - Southern Jiangsu cities had higher per capita GDP, with Wuxi leading at 206,300 yuan per capita [42] - Northern Jiangsu cities lagged in economic indicators, with per capita GDPs below 100,000 yuan [42] Fiscal Performance by City - Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi had the highest general public budget revenues, exceeding 100 billion yuan each in 2023 [57] - Lianyungang, Suqian, and Nantong showed the highest growth rates in public budget revenue, while Nanjing had the lowest growth rate [59] - Fiscal self-sufficiency rates varied significantly, with southern Jiangsu cities generally having higher rates [61] Government Fund Revenue by City - Government fund revenues were concentrated in economically strong cities like Suzhou, Changzhou, and Nanjing [64] - Most cities saw declines in government fund revenue due to the real estate market downturn, with only Yancheng, Lianyungang, and Zhenjiang showing positive growth [65] - Government fund revenues remained a significant source of local fiscal strength, often exceeding general public budget revenues [69] Debt Distribution by City - Nanjing had the highest government debt balance at 307.003 billion yuan in 2023, followed by Zhenjiang at 245.908 billion yuan [82] - Suzhou had the lowest debt-to-revenue ratio at 83.28%, indicating strong fiscal coverage of debt [84] - Zhenjiang's debt-to-revenue ratio was the highest at 766.76%, reflecting significant debt pressure [84] Urban Investment Bonds - Jiangsu's urban investment bonds and interest-bearing debt were the highest in the country, with a total of 7.99 trillion yuan in 2023 [88] - Nanjing and Suzhou had the highest outstanding urban investment bonds, with Nanjing at 479.91 billion yuan and Suzhou at 314.665 billion yuan [92] - Debt pressure varied by city, with Yancheng, Taizhou, and Huai'an facing the highest debt burdens relative to fiscal revenue [101]

区域研究报告 浙江省及下辖各市经济财政实力与债务研究（2024） 公共融资部 李娟 经济实力：作为东南沿海省份，浙江省民营经济、商品贸易等发展充分，形 成了良好的经济基础。近年来，浙江省在原有的区块经济产业链、港口交通、平 台经济等优势基础上，大力推进先进制造及数字工程发展，数字经济成为推动全 省经济增长的重要引擎。2023 年，浙江省新兴产业引领工业经济稳步回升，同 时得益于服务业加快复苏及消费需求释放，全省经济增速有所回升，当年浙江省 经济总量突破八万亿元，实现地区生产总值 8.26 万亿元，同比增长 6.0%，规模 稳居全国第四位，其中民营经济增加值占比约 67.2%。由于基础设施投资拉动作 用减弱及房地产开发投资低增长，浙江省固定资产投资增速进一步放缓；此外作 为贸易大省，2023 年浙江省外贸规模进一步扩大，出口商品结构转型升级，但 增速进一步回落。2024 年前三季度，浙江省经济运行总体平稳，经济增速高于 全国水平，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新等政策落实对投资和消费增长形成 助力，但总体增速呈回落态势，而外贸增速有所回升。当期全省实现地区生产总 值 6.26 万亿元，同比增长 5.4%。 202 ...

Economic Strength of Shanghai - Shanghai, as China's economic center and the core city of the Yangtze River Delta, has a significant agglomeration and radiation function, leading regional development with a modern industrial system dominated by modern services, led by strategic emerging industries, and supported by advanced manufacturing [1] - In 2023, Shanghai's GDP reached 4.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, driven primarily by the tertiary industry, which accounted for 75.2% of the total GDP [17] - The city's investment, consumption, and import-export growth rates in 2023 were 13.8%, 12.6%, and 0.7% respectively, though consumption growth faced pressure in 2024 with a decline of 3.4% in the first nine months [1][17] District-Level Economic Performance - Shanghai's districts are clearly differentiated in terms of functional planning and industrial positioning, with central districts focusing on high-end services like finance and modern commerce, while suburban areas focus on strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing [2] - In 2023, Pudong New Area had the highest GDP at 1671.515 billion yuan, while Chongming District had the lowest at 42.186 billion yuan, with most districts falling within the 1000-3000 billion yuan range [2] - Central districts generally outperformed suburban areas in GDP growth, with Changning District (12.8%), Xuhui District (8.2%), and Jing'an District (7.0%) showing particularly strong growth, while suburban areas like Qingpu District (5.7%) and Jinshan District (6.5%) also performed well [2][3] Fiscal Strength and Revenue Structure - Shanghai's fiscal strength is robust, with general public budget revenue reaching 831.25 billion yuan in 2023, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, driven by recovery from the pandemic and large-scale tax refunds [4] - The city's fiscal structure is dominated by general public budget revenue, with low reliance on non-tax revenue, superior subsidies, and debt income, reflecting strong fiscal self-sufficiency [4][42] - In 2024, the growth of general public budget revenue slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, with declines in major tax categories due to reduced corporate sales and profits [4][42] Industrial Structure and Emerging Industries - Shanghai's industrial structure is characterized by a modern service sector as the main body, with strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing as key drivers, particularly in sectors like integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [1][29] - In 2023, the added value of strategic emerging industries reached 1.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.8% of the city's GDP, with industrial strategic emerging industries contributing 398.818 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase [24] - The city's industrial strategic emerging industries, including new energy, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, accounted for 43.9% of the total industrial output value in 2023, reflecting a steady increase in their contribution [28] Real Estate and Infrastructure Development - Shanghai's real estate market saw significant investment growth in 2023, with total real estate development investment reaching 588.579 billion yuan, a 18.2% year-on-year increase, driven by residential investment [36] - The city's infrastructure development remains strong, with major projects like the expansion of Pudong International Airport and the construction of the Shanghai East Railway Station progressing steadily, enhancing the city's transportation hub status [35] - In 2024, the city's government fund budget revenue increased by 14.7% in the first half of the year, driven by accelerated land supply and market activity [5][7]

区域研究报告 福建省及下辖各市经济财政实力与债务研究（2024） 公共融资部 张烨 经济实力：福建省地处长三角和珠三角中间区域，同时是改革开放的前沿重 地，在承接发达地区产业辐射、对外贸易方面具有独特的区位及政策优势，近年 经济保持较快发展。2023 年福建省经济总量继续超五万亿，规模接近湖北省，当 年实现地区生产总值 5.44 万亿元，位列全国第八位，同比增长 4.5%；人均地区 生产总值为 12.99 万元，位列全国第四位，排名靠前。福建省工业基础完善，制 造业发达，机械装备、电子信息和石油化工三大传统主导产业对经济支撑作用明 显，同时着力培育经济新能力，新能源汽车、软件和信息技术服务业等新兴产业 增势良好；同时以物流业和金融业等为代表的服务业不断发展，产业结构逐步优 化。2023 年福建省三次产业结构比为 5.9:44.1:50.0。福建省经济外向程度较高， 受国际环境及外部经济体影响，外贸面临的不确定性因素较多。2024 年前三季 度，福建省实现地区生产总值 4.02 万亿元，同比增长 5.5%，增速较上年同期有 所回升，高于同期全国增速 0.7 个百分点。 从下辖各地级市情况看，福建省区域发展呈现不 ...

区域研究报告 湖北省及下辖各州市经济财政实力与债务研究（2024） 公共融资部 周晓庆 经济实力：湖北省是我国中部重要的工业基地，产业及经济基础较好。2023 年，湖北省经济运行持续回升向好，全省实现地区生产总值 55803.63 亿元，按 可比价格计算增长 6.0%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点，高于全国平均水平 0.8 个百分 点，经济总量位次保持在全国第 7 位，与后位福建省的差距得以拉大。全省人均 地区生产总值为 9.55 万元，继续位居全国第 9、中部第 1，是人均国内生产总值 的 1.07 倍；按可比价格计算，比上年增长 5.9%。从三大需求看，2023 年湖北省 消费在上年低基数下有所回暖；投资受益于基础设施和工业投资推动，对冲房地 产投资下行，实现总体投资增长；外贸增速受外需不足影响回落，但仍高于全国 水平。全年全省投资、消费和进出口贸易增速分别为 5.0%、8.5%和 5.8%，分别 同比下降 10.0、提高 5.7 和下降 9.1 个百分点。2024 年前三季度，湖北省新兴产 业加快成势，经济提速发展，前三季度实现地区生产总值 41655.01 亿元，同比 增长 5.7%，高于全国 0.9 ...

区域发展专题研究 粤港澳大湾区规划及金融业发展研究 研发部 何金中 孙田原 陈彦吟（实习） 摘要：粤港澳大湾区（简称"大湾区"）是我国开放程度最高、经济活力最 强的区域之一，亦是世界四大湾区之一。大湾区以不到全国 0.6%的国土面积， 创造了全国 1/9 的经济总量，在全国新发展格局中具有重要战略地位。在国家及 粤港澳三地相关政策措施的推动下，大湾区将打造成为充满活力的世界级城市群、 具有全球影响力的国际科技创新中心、"一带一路"建设的重要支撑、内地与港 澳深度合作示范区、宜居宜业宜游的优质生活圈，成为高质量发展典范。金融业 作为大湾区的重要产业，是粤港澳三地协同发展的重要纽带，近年来在政策支持 下大湾区金融业得到迅速发展，并在人民币国际化、资本市场互联互通、绿色金 融协同发展等方面实现了长足进步。在加快建设金融强国的时代背景下，大湾区 将率先探索金融制度型开放，以国际金融枢纽建设为支点，充分发挥金融资源配 置的"引擎"作用，加快建设高效、开放、稳健的现代金融体系，推动金融业高 水对外开放，形成高质量发展示范地的动力源，助力金融强国战略目标实现。 一、粤港澳大湾区区域规划及基础性支持政策 （一）粤港澳大湾区的 ...

新世纪评级 中国民航行业 2024 年中期信用观察 中国民航行业 2024 年中期信用观察 工商企业评级部 张佳 摘要： 近期我国民航机队建设呈缓速增长态势，2023 年集中恢复国内运力，刺激国内运输需求， 量价齐升推动民航运输行业大幅减损。2024 年以来，我国民航客货运市场继续呈现增长态 势，其中客运增速逐步回归常态，且客运量已超过 2019 年；结构上，国内民航市场稳健运 行，国际市场修复进一步提速，地区恢复力稍逊；损益方面，收入端依旧保持增长，利润 呈现减损。 短期来看，我国航空公司仍将受到航油价格和汇率波动以及国际市场恢复不确定性等影响， 面临经营扭亏和利润积累的压力，同时资本性支出也将加深对债务的依赖度，财务杠杆偏 高。基于国内航空运输市场保障运行和国际运输市场进一步恢复态势，较稳定的客货运需 求、主业较强的现金流，以及金融机构的流动性补充等，仍可支撑我国民航运输行业信用 质量保持稳定。 短期来看，预计我国民航机场建设将保持规模化投入，并有望发挥行业债务融资空间相对 较大的优势，成为基建投资助推经济企稳回升的重要发力领域。经营预期上，机场旅客吞 吐量也将步入自然增长阶段，其中国际枢纽类机场的国际旅 ...