Core Thesis - APi Group Corporation (APG) is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong growth potential and resilient business model, particularly in the safety and specialty services sector [2][6]. Financial Metrics - As of February 24th, APG's share price was $44.99, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 95.67 and 21.41 respectively [1]. - The company has a historical revenue growth rate of 10%, EBITDA margins of 16%, and 60% of its revenue is recurring [6]. Business Model and Strategy - APG generates approximately 70% of its revenue from its Safety Services segment, which includes essential services like fire, security, and elevator inspections that are mandated by law [4]. - The company is transitioning to an Inspection, Service, and Monitoring (ISM) model, expected to account for over 60% of total revenue by 2028, enhancing its cash flow stability [4]. Recent Developments - An institutional investor recently purchased 5,500 contracts of the July 17, 2026, $45 Calls for $2.4 million, indicating confidence in APG's upward momentum following a breakout above its 52-week high of $45.37 [3]. - The trade anticipates a price target of $50–$55 by mid-summer, suggesting potential double-digit gains if analyst expectations are met [4]. Growth Catalysts - Key growth drivers include the recent acquisition of CertaSite, which expands APG's inspection capabilities in the Midwest, and the full integration of the Chubb acquisition, with projected free cash flow of $726 million [5]. - Upcoming earnings reports for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 are expected to highlight the benefits of these acquisitions and seasonal trends in specialty infrastructure services [5]. Market Position - APG is viewed as a compounding machine rather than a traditional industrial stock, supported by resilient core operations and strategic acquisitions [6]. - The stock has appreciated approximately 23% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting growing investor confidence in its long-term growth potential [7].

Core Thesis - Deere & Company is positioned for potential recovery as agricultural conditions stabilize, entering FY2025 at a cyclical trough [1][4] Company Overview - Deere & Company manufactures and distributes various equipment globally, operating through two main divisions: Equipment Operations and Financial Services [1] - Equipment Operations includes Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, and Construction & Forestry [1] Industry Dynamics - Deere's results are cyclical, closely tracking farm income and crop prices, with recent declines in net sales expected from FY2023 through FY2025 due to normalized commodity prices [2] - The rate of sales contraction is slowing, indicating a potential bottom of the cycle [2] Competitive Positioning - Deere is significantly larger than key competitors like CNH Industrial and Kubota, with approximately double their scale in Equipment Operations [3] - In agriculture, Deere experienced a 14% sales decline in FY2025, consistent with peers, while competitors like CLAAS showed greater resilience [3] Market Performance - Deere's stock has risen approximately 75% since the end of 2020, outperforming most agricultural peers, reflecting market confidence in its structural advantages [4] - The current environment is seen as an attractive long-term entry point for investors as sales declines moderate and competitive scale remains strong [4] Previous Coverage - Previous bullish analyses highlighted Deere's margin resilience, consistent earnings beats, aggressive buybacks, and expanding ag-tech initiatives despite cyclical pressures, with a stock price appreciation of approximately 26.88% since May 2025 [5]

Core Thesis - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) presents a bullish investment opportunity driven by AI integration, new trading protocols, and electronic trading penetration despite facing near-term challenges [1][6]. Financial Performance - MKTX reported mixed results for 4Q25, with total revenue of $209 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase but slightly below consensus estimates; EPS was $1.69, exceeding estimates by 3% due to favorable tax and share count effects [2]. - Adjusted operating margins declined to 36.8% due to increased expenses related to technology, staffing, and AI investments [3]. Trading Activity - Transaction volumes showed uneven performance, with credit average daily volume (ADV) down 8% year-over-year and rates ADV down 17% year-over-year; however, there were gains in fee-per-million for rates and incremental growth in credit driven by shifts towards portfolio and block trading [3]. - Automated block trading among top clients increased by 125%, and U.S. high-yield portfolio trading volumes rose by 126% in January 2026, indicating traction for newer trading protocols [4]. Strategic Outlook - Management aims for 8-9% revenue growth over the next three years, targeting approximately 100 basis points of margin expansion through increased electronic penetration, AI-driven efficiency, and adoption of new protocols in U.S. credit and emerging markets [5]. - The market opportunity is bolstered by opaque emerging markets, where MKTX's AI applications could provide a significant competitive advantage [5]. Investment Considerations - Despite modest near-term revenue growth and execution risks, the combination of protocol innovation, AI integration, and expanding electronic trading positions MKTX for meaningful medium-term upside [6]. - The current valuation may be seen as an attractive entry point for investors looking for structural growth, resilient client demand, and multiple catalysts for margin and revenue expansion over the next three years [6].

Core Thesis - Morgan Stanley is positioned as a premier wealth management powerhouse, with significant growth in share price and strong financial performance [2][3][7] Financial Performance - The firm reported record full-year 2025 revenue of $70.6 billion, driven by net inflows of $100 billion in the last quarter and successful integration of E*Trade and Eaton Vance [3] - As of February 24th, Morgan Stanley's shares were trading at $168.79, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 17.59 and 16.05 respectively [1] Institutional Confidence - A major institutional trade involved selling 10,000 June 18, 2026, $160 puts at $4.80 each, indicating a strong conviction in the stock's floor price [4] - The break-even point for this trade is at $155.20, which would require a significant macroeconomic shock given the firm's 21.6% ROTCE [4] Capital Return Programs - Morgan Stanley increased its quarterly dividend to $1.00 per share, yielding 2.2%, and reauthorized a $20 billion multi-year buyback program, providing structural support for the stock [5] - The ongoing Fed rate-cut cycle and increasing M&A activity suggest strong upside potential for the firm [5] Investment Opportunity - Selling the $160 puts presents an attractive opportunity for investors to acquire shares at a favorable price while benefiting from the company's earnings power and capital return policy [6]

Core Thesis - Blue Owl Capital Inc. is positioned as a stable alternative asset manager, focusing on permanent capital and predictable fee streams, which resembles a regulated utility rather than a traditional private equity manager [2][5] Financial Performance - As of February 24th, Blue Owl's share was trading at $10.73, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 145.91 and 15.43 respectively [1] - The firm manages approximately $307 billion in assets, with over 90% locked in long-duration or permanent vehicles, creating a robust revenue model [2] - The stock was trading near $12.30 in mid-February 2026, with a significant institutional investor selling January 2027 $8 puts, indicating a break-even near $7.25, reflecting a 35% margin of safety [3] Growth Drivers - A key growth driver is the expansion into private wealth channels, with dedicated products growing 66% year-over-year as individual investors seek yield beyond traditional portfolios [4] - Management has committed to a fixed annual dividend of $0.92 for 2026, equating to a yield of over 7% at current prices, potentially exceeding 11% if shares approach the $8 level [4] Market Positioning - The income profile of Blue Owl Capital creates a structural valuation floor in a yield-constrained environment, positioning the firm as a stable, compounding platform amid the normalization of private credit [5] - Blue Owl Capital is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 35 hedge fund portfolios holding OWL at the end of Q3, down from 40 in the previous quarter [7]

Core Thesis - Public Storage (PSA) has demonstrated strong performance in the self-storage sector, reinforced by a robust fourth-quarter earnings report that exceeded consensus estimates for both revenue and Funds From Operations (FFO) [2][3] Financial Performance - Core FFO was reported at $4.26 per share, surpassing expectations of $4.21, while revenue increased by 3.2% year-over-year, driven by strong pricing power in urban markets like New York and Boston [3] - Management has provided a 2026 FFO guidance of $16.35–$17.00, indicating confidence in sector normalization and positioning the stock at a reasonable multiple for an industry leader [3] Institutional Investor Activity - A large institutional investor sold 1,050 March 20, 2026, $270 put contracts at $2.30 per contract, generating $241,500 in premium on approximately $28 million in notional exposure, reflecting a bullish outlook [4] - The $270 strike price offers a 7.5% buffer and a break-even level of $267.70, aligning with a recently tested technical support zone around $271 that has previously attracted strong institutional buying [4] Market Dynamics - The strategy employed by the institutional investor suggests confidence in limited downside risk as supply growth moderates in the self-storage industry and operating fundamentals stabilize [5] - Public Storage's 4.1% dividend yield and 78% institutional ownership provide structural support for the stock, enhancing its attractiveness even in the absence of significant upside [5] Previous Coverage - Previous bullish analyses on Public Storage highlighted its market dominance, strong profitability metrics, and undervaluation relative to intrinsic value, with the stock price appreciating by approximately 2.01% since the last coverage [6]

Core Thesis - Nutrien Ltd. is positioned favorably in the fertilizer market due to strong organic growth driven by rising demand and constrained supply, which enhances its pricing power [2][4]. Company Overview - Nutrien Ltd. is the world's largest fertilizer company by capacity, formed in 2018 through the merger of PotashCorp and Agrium, operating a vertically integrated model from raw material mining to direct sales to farmers [1]. - The company generates revenue from four segments: Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Retail through Nutrien Ag Solutions, which operates over 1,500 farm retail locations [1]. Market Dynamics - The market fundamentals are supportive, with low global channel inventories, particularly in China, where port inventories have decreased by over 1 million tons year-over-year [3]. - Limited new capacity additions are expected in 2026 due to project delays, which will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the nitrogen market [4]. Financial Performance - Nutrien has delivered structural earnings growth through record upstream fertilizer volumes and improved operational reliability, leading to a second upward revision of its 2025 potash sales guidance [2]. - The stock trades at a relatively low valuation, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 21.49 and 11.85 respectively, reflecting past revenue declines and underappreciation of defensive assets [1][4]. Shareholder Returns - Nutrien offers a ~4% dividend yield and engages in share buybacks, enhancing total shareholder return and providing a compelling opportunity for long-term investors [5].

Core Thesis - FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) is positioned as a resilient player in the financial data and analytics sector, with a strong subscription-based model that creates high client retention and switching costs [2][5]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - FactSet offers an integrated workstation that is essential for analysts and portfolio managers, streamlining vast amounts of financial data into a reliable platform [2]. - The company's subscription model fosters a high-switching-cost ecosystem, making it difficult for clients to transition to competitors without significant retraining and workflow adjustments [2][3]. - FactSet's entrenched position in global finance provides stability and growth potential, particularly as demand for sophisticated analytics tools increases [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth Potential - The business model is margin-rich, benefiting from the scalability of cloud-enabled analytics, which allows for consistent cash generation [3]. - FactSet has demonstrated strong retention rates and predictable revenue streams, similar to the dynamics seen in other successful companies like Paychex [3]. - The company has a three-year revenue CAGR of 11.1%, indicating consistent growth despite recent stock price depreciation due to AI disruptions [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunity - With pricing power, high client loyalty, and a strong foundation for operational resilience, FactSet presents a compelling opportunity for long-term returns [5]. - The market is expected to increasingly recognize the intrinsic value of FactSet's mission-critical platform, positioning it for potential outperformance in 2026 [5].

Core Thesis - S&P Global Inc. is viewed positively, with shares trading at $418.27 and trailing and forward P/E ratios of 36.64 and 24.69 respectively [1][3] Company Overview - S&P Global Inc. provides benchmarks, data, analytics, and workflow solutions across global capital, energy, commodity, and automotive markets [3] - The company plans to spin off its Mobility segment into a standalone public company, Mobility Global, Inc., expected to be completed by mid-2026 [3] Mobility Global Segment - Mobility Global aims to be the leading data and analytics infrastructure for the global automotive value chain, offering high-margin, recurring subscription services [4] - Key products include CARFAX, automotiveMastermind, Polk Automotive Solutions, and Market Scan, which address critical issues in the vehicle markets [5] Competitive Advantages - CARFAX utilizes over 112,000 data sources, serving more than 100,000 dealerships and millions of consumers, creating a strong network effect [6] - The predictive Behavior Prediction Score from automotiveMastermind and Polk's extensive 30-year data set provide significant insights and enhance customer retention [6] Financial Profile - Mobility Global has an 81% recurring revenue base, adjusted operating margins of 35.4%, and operates with minimal capital requirements, leading to predictable cash flow [7] - Growth drivers include the expanding used vehicle market, brand equity pricing power, EV adoption, dealer SaaS penetration, international expansion, and a shift towards higher-margin subscription products [7] Strategic Implications - The spin-off allows for strategic autonomy, enabling focused investment in product innovation and M&A, and may lead to a market rerating as a pure-play automotive technology leader [8] - Despite potential short-term execution risks during the separation, Mobility Global's competitive advantages and scalable business model present a compelling investment opportunity [8]

We came across a bullish thesis on SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. on The Few Bets That Matter’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SEDG. SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.'s share was trading at $43.07 as of February 24th. SEDG’s forward P/E was 57.47 according to Yahoo Finance. First Solar (FSLR) Rockets to Fresh High on Q3 Blowout, Upbeat Outlook foxbat/Shutterstock.com SolarEdge Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells direc ...