Global Research 11 January 2025 UBS Investment Research Sector Keys APAC Tech Strategy – January 2025 Will AI Plays continue to work? Nicolas Gaudois Analyst +65 6495 5148 nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com Jimmy Yoon Analyst +65 6495 4617 jimmy.yoon@ubs.com This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 198500648C) UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affe ...

WHOLE OF CONTEXT SYRIA People targeted1 10.8 million Funding requirement US$ 141.5 million including US$ 56.4 million emergency flash appeal 1 Global Humanitarian Overview 2025 On 8 December 2024, Syria witnessed a monumental political shift with the fall of the long-standing Al-Assad government. The ongoing insecurity has triggered massive population movement, with more 882 000 people internally displaced at the start and 664 100 still reportedly displaced. Civilians on the move face multiple risks, includ ...

LEBANON People in need 1 3.7 million including: LEBANESE 2.2 MILLION SYRIAN REFUGEES 1.3 MILLION PALESTINIAN REFUGEES 119 000 MIGRANTS 87 000 People targeted 1 3.1 MILLION Funding requirement US$ 48 MILLION 1Figures represent People in Need and People Targeted for overall humanitarian assistance from the Global Humanitarian Overview 2025. Data specific to health assistance will become available following the publication of the Humanitarian Response Plan for this emergency. CONTEXT Lebanon's health sector is ...

SOMALIA People in need 1 6 MILLION People targeted 1 4.6 MILLION Funding requirement US$ 38 MILLION 1 Global Humanitarian Overview 2025 – Figures represent People in Need and People Targeted for overall humanitarian assistance from the Global Humanitarian Overview 2025. Data specific to health assistance will be available following the publication of the Humanitarian Response Plan for this emergency. CONTEXT Somalia faces four principal shocks that contribute to excess mortality and morbidity: conflict, dro ...

Two TMT Global events today: Latest Enterprise AI Survey: overall AI adoption is ramping, but slowly What happened: Yesterday, our US team released a report on our latest UBS Evidence Lab survey, highlighting that the overall AI adoption is ramping, but slowly, while Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI retain their leads. Key highlights are: Equities Emerging Markets 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research TMT Online ObServer US Software: our 3rd UBS Enterprise AI Survey; CES 2025 ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the APAC Technology sector, with key events such as CES 2025 and updates on AI, PC gaming, and semiconductor developments [4] - CES 2025 is expected to feature over 4,000 exhibitors and 138k+ attendees, with keynotes from NVIDIA, Intel, Samsung, and AMD [4] - The report highlights Microsoft's planned $80 billion investment in data centers for AI and cloud-based applications in FY2025, with over half of the investment in the US [4][16] PC and Gaming Sector - NVIDIA is expected to launch RTX 50 gaming GPUs during CES 2025, focusing on PC gaming and AI advancements [4] - Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are also expected to launch AI PC platforms, targeting both high-end and mainstream markets [4] - The PC market is projected to grow by 6% YoY in 2025, recovering from a flat to -1% YoY performance in 2024 [4] - Top picks in the PC space include Asustek, ASMedia, and Gigabyte [4] Semiconductor and Hardware - TSMC's 2nm process is on track, with wafer production starting in Q425 and output expected in H126 [15] - TSMC is expected to maintain a high market share in 2nm technology, serving major clients like Apple, Mediatek, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD [15] - NVIDIA's GB200 racks are expected to ramp up at ODMs in Q125, with GB300 ramps launching in June 2025 [4] China Smartphone Market - China may extend consumer subsidies to smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, potentially boosting sales [5] - Smartphone sales in China declined by 9% YoY in November 2024, lagging behind the global growth estimate of 4% YoY [6] - The subsidy program could offer 15-20% of the retail price, up to 2,000 RMB per purchase, benefiting companies like Mediatek, Semco, ASE, and TSMC [6] Key Companies and Updates - Apple is offering discounts of up to 500 yuan on its latest iPhone models in China to compete with domestic rivals like Huawei [5] - Mediatek's next flagship Dimensity 9500 processor, launching in H225, may use TSMC's N3P process instead of N2 [7] - NVIDIA and Qualcomm are considering switching to Samsung's 2nm process for cutting-edge chips due to high costs and limited production capacity at TSMC [7]

Industry Overview - Youth unemployment is a significant global challenge, particularly in Bhutan where nearly half the population is below the age of 30 [1] - The study focuses on understanding the challenges faced by Bhutanese youth, especially women, in accessing employment opportunities [1] - The research highlights the economic benefits of increasing female labor force participation and identifies challenges across different economic sectors [1] Research Methodology - The study employs a qualitative approach, utilizing focus group discussions and key informant interviews across three areas: Thimphu (services), Chukha (industry), and Dagana (agriculture) [4] - Primary and secondary data are used to analyze youth and female unemployment, with a focus on urban and rural issues [4] Key Findings Education and Skills - The education system in Bhutan struggles to equip youth with practical skills needed for the job market, leading to a mismatch between education and employment [5] - There is a notable gender bias in STEM subjects, with fewer females pursuing careers in these fields due to societal expectations [32] - Students with disabilities face significant barriers in accessing education and employment opportunities [46] Female Employment Challenges - Women employees, particularly working mothers, face challenges due to the lack of childcare facilities at workplaces [6] - Women perform 71% of unpaid household and care work, which limits their ability to engage in income-generating activities [35] - Gender pay gaps persist, with females earning less than males in both urban and rural areas [54] Economic Sectors - The agriculture sector employs 49.2% of the labor force but contributes only 20% to GDP, highlighting inefficiencies [18] - The tourism sector, a major contributor to GDP, has been negatively impacted by policy changes such as the increase in the sustainable development fee (SDF) [82] - Technological advancements are reshaping the job market, with many traditional jobs being automated or outsourced [64] Youth Migration - Out-migration of the working-age population, particularly to Australia, is a major concern, with 70% of registered jobseekers seeking overseas employment [70] - This trend could lead to a loss of skilled workers, reduced tax revenues, and underutilization of infrastructure, posing long-term economic challenges [72] Policy Recommendations - Integration of TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) into the mainstream education system to better align skills with market demands [75] - Workplace support for female employees, including childcare services and flexible work arrangements [75] - Addressing social challenges through confidence-building initiatives and mentoring programs to improve youth employability [83] Conclusion - The study provides valuable insights into the complex factors contributing to youth and female unemployment in Bhutan, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to enhance employment opportunities and sustainable development [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Vietnam aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045, requiring gross capital investments to account for 32-35% of GDP, with government investment at 7.3% of GDP annually to support infrastructure development [14] - Public investment in Vietnam has declined from 8% of GDP in 2011 to 6% in 2022, with chronic under-execution of investment budgets and significant delays and cost overruns in major projects [15][16] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality lags behind regional peers, with low expressway density and high road transport costs, which could impact its attractiveness as an FDI destination [19][20] - The public investment management (PIM) and intergovernmental fiscal (IGF) systems in Vietnam suffer from allocative inefficiencies, lack of coordination, and weak enforcement mechanisms, leading to suboptimal investment outcomes [28][29][30] Public Investment Trends - Vietnam's public investment has been declining, with the share of public investment in GDP falling from 8% in 2011 to 6% in 2022, while the economy remains capital-scarce compared to upper middle-income and high-income countries [24][25] - The central government's share in total government investment has decreased from 40% seven years ago to 20% in 2022, with provinces accounting for 80% of infrastructure investment [16][52] - Vietnam's infrastructure quality ranks 77th globally, behind regional peers like China, India, and Malaysia, with road transport costs being the highest in the region [19][20] Inefficiencies in PIM and IGF Systems - Allocative inefficiencies are evident in strategic infrastructure, with provinces over-investing in low-value projects like industrial parks and provincial ports, while national infrastructure spending has been squeezed [16][30] - There is a lack of investment in environmental protection and climate adaptation, with Vietnam being among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change, yet public investment in disaster protection is only 0.05% of GDP [40][41] - Implementation inefficiencies are significant, with an average delay of 5 years and cost overruns double the original budget for large-scale transport projects [42][45] Systemic Problems in Subnational PIM and IGF Systems - The lack of a conducive intergovernmental fiscal framework has led to fragmented investment decisions, with provinces holding 78-85% of public investment resources, leaving the central government with limited capacity to fund national infrastructure [52][53] - There is no enabling legal framework for vertical and horizontal investment coordination, with the State Budget Law banning the transfer of investment funds between provinces, creating financing gaps for regional projects [59][60] - The absence of effective incentive and enforcement mechanisms has resulted in a race-to-the-bottom competition among provinces, leading to wasteful investments in uneconomic projects [62][63] Recommendations and Next Steps - The report recommends rebalancing infrastructure investment from provincial to central levels, addressing legal loopholes, and establishing robust monitoring mechanisms to improve public investment efficiency [16][75] - It suggests adopting effective instruments for vertical and horizontal coordination, such as co-financing arrangements and matching grants, to enhance regional investment coordination [80][81] - The report also calls for a review of expenditure responsibilities and the establishment of a regional Public Investment Program to align with integrated masterplans and improve investment outcomes [78][79]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on economic empowerment and how companies can benefit more people by improving income and affordability [1][9][16] - It analyzes 120 economies, covering 90% of the global population, categorized into lower-income (GDP per capita < $5,000), middle-income ($5,000-$20,000), and higher-income (>$20,000) groups [2] - The empowerment line is defined as the private cash expenditure required for basic needs, including a 10% allocation for recreation and a 5% savings buffer [3][5] - The report estimates the share of the population below the empowerment line using consumption and distribution data [6] - It highlights the importance of stable jobs with sufficient wages and affordable essential goods (housing, food, transportation, healthcare, education) for economic empowerment [12][16] Income Analysis - The report uses four labor market metrics: working-age population, labor force participation, unemployment rates, and stable jobs with sufficient wages [12] - For countries with GDP per capita > $10,000, it considers time-related underemployment and low-pay rates, while for those < $10,000, it focuses on formal employment share [13] - The analysis identifies best-performing countries based on labor market metrics and estimates the population that could be lifted to empowerment by improving one element [14][15] Cost Analysis - The report calculates a "lowest-cost line" for essential goods and services, excluding statistical outliers and identifying top-quartile economies [18][19] - It estimates the population that could achieve empowerment through improved affordability by comparing costs to the lowest-cost line [20] Cost-to-Impact Ratios - The report evaluates cost-to-impact ratios for initiatives aimed at economic empowerment, using external data and academic assumptions [21] - It notes that ratios may improve with better targeting or more substantial benefits, such as supporting housing for low-wage employees [22]

Industry Overview - The Mosaic by ACT Social Emotional Learning Screener assesses social emotional skills in elementary, middle, and high school students, measuring skills such as Sustaining Effort, Getting Along with Others, and Maintaining Composure [9] - The screener also evaluates two dimensions of school climate: Relationships with School Personnel and School Safety [9] - The elementary school screener uses image-based Likert items, while middle and high school screeners use forced-choice items for social emotional skills and text-based Likert items for school climate perceptions [9] - The screener can be completed online in 5–7 minutes, with elementary school screener containing 23 items and middle/high school screeners containing 30 items each [9] Framework and Definitions - Social emotional skills are defined as interpersonal, self-regulatory, and task-related behaviors important for adaptation and success in educational and workplace settings [12] - These skills are linked to the Behavioral Skills portion of ACT's Holistic Framework, which is based on the Big Five personality factors [13] - The framework aligns with the five competencies outlined by the Collaborative for Academic, Social, and Emotional Learning (CASEL) [14] - School climate dimensions, such as Relationships with School Personnel and School Safety, are positively associated with student motivation, self-regulation, and social engagement [15] Assessment and Scoring - The elementary school assessment measures three social emotional skills and two school climate dimensions using Likert items, with 12 items for social emotional skills and 8 items for school climate [17][18] - Middle and high school assessments measure five social emotional skills and two school climate dimensions, with 30 items for social emotional skills and 15 items for school climate [20][22] - Scores are norm-based, with students receiving scores from 1 (Developing) to 4 (Mastering) for each skill and school climate area [24][25] - Reports flag students who score 1 in any category, indicating a need for further skill development [25] Reliability and Validity - Reliability estimates for elementary school screener scales range from α = .63 to α = .79, with similar reliability found in middle and high school screeners [35][64][88] - Convergent, discriminant, and criterion validity evidence supports the screener's effectiveness, with social emotional skills correlating most highly with their respective Big Five factors [38][66][92] - Students scoring at the Developing level for social emotional skills or school climate had significantly lower academic performance and less positive attitudes toward school [43][44][72][107] Subgroup Differences - Subgroup differences by grade, gender, and race/ethnicity were evaluated, with small but significant differences observed across various scales [48][52][55][74][77][109][112][114] - Females scored higher than males on Getting Along with Others and Relationships with School Personnel, while males scored higher on Maintaining Composure [52][112] - White students generally scored higher than other racial/ethnic groups on most scales, with Black students scoring lower on several measures [55][114]