Workflow
Prudent guidance but QoQ recovery is likely
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-06 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) with a target price of US$ 23.68, reflecting a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of US$ 18.98 [4][12]. Core Insights - The 4Q23 results slightly exceeded expectations, but the FY24E guidance was somewhat disappointing. However, there is optimism for sequential improvement due to a high base in the first half of the year, a strong occupancy rate compared to peers, and an improving PMI starting March 2024 [2][7]. - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) showed a year-to-date decline but improved quarter-over-quarter, with management targeting a flat recovery rate for FY24E [2][7]. - The company plans to open 360 new hotels in FY24E, aligning with previous expectations, and has a robust pipeline of 617 managed hotels under development [2][7]. Financial Summary - FY23 revenue reached RMB 4.7 billion, a 106.2% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable rose by 651% to RMB 739 million [7][11]. - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 5.96 billion, with a 27.8% year-over-year growth, and net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.16 billion, reflecting a 57.7% increase [3][9]. - The report indicates a slight improvement in adjusted net profit margin for FY24E, with a target of 19.5% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation stands at a P/E of 16x for FY24E, which is considered not demanding given the projected 3-year sales and net profit CAGR of 26% and 41%, respectively [2][4]. - The target price is based on a 20x FY24E P/E, rolled over from a previous 30x FY23E P/E, compared to peers' median of 18x [2][4]. Growth Initiatives - The company is focusing on increasing corporate customer enrollments, enhancing product offerings, and targeting robust retail sales growth, particularly through Tmall and Douyin channels [2][7]. - Management anticipates a small improvement in net profit margin due to better operational expense control and a stronger-than-expected retail sales performance [2][7].
Stable development with new catalysts
西牛证券· 2024-04-04 16:00
| RESEARCH 5 Apr, 2024 EEKA Fashion | 03709.HK COMPANY UPDATE Stable development with new catalysts H F NGO, Brian, CFA STOCK RATING TARGET PRICE SENIOR ANALYST BUY HK$ 16.78 brianngo@westbullsec.com.hk EEKA Fashion (03709.HK) reported a YoY 22.1% growth in revenue to RMB 6.9bn, and its gross +852 3896 2965 margin slightly surged to 75.3%, leading to a YoY 121.8% increment in the bottom-line. The Group 2701 – 2703, 27/F, Infinitus Plaza, 199 Des Voeux Rd also announced a dividend of HKD 0.7/share, amounting ...
Awaiting the fruition of overseas BD collaborations
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-02 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for RemeGen, with a revised target price of HK$41.72, down from HK$57.65, indicating a potential upside of 53.7% from the current price of HK$27.15 [5][3]. Core Insights - RemeGen recorded revenue of RMB1.08 billion in FY23, with product sales contributing RMB1.05 billion, reflecting a 42% year-over-year increase. The gross profit margin improved to 76.9% from 63.4% in FY22. However, the company reported a wider attributable net loss of RMB1.51 billion in FY23 compared to RMB999 million in FY22 [3][11]. - The company anticipates a significant ramp-up in sales for FY24, targeting at least a 50% year-over-year increase in product sales, driven by strong performance of RC18 and RC48, an expanded salesforce, and inclusion in numerous top-grade hospitals [3][9]. - RemeGen is progressing with the global development of RC18, with the first stage of its Phase 3 trial completed. The company is considering whether to unblind the study results, which could serve as a catalyst for further development and potential out-licensing deals [3][10]. - The report highlights the potential for overseas business development collaborations, particularly for RC18 and RC88, which has received fast track designation from the FDA. These collaborations are expected to be crucial for RemeGen's growth trajectory [3][10]. Financial Summary - In FY23, RemeGen's revenue was RMB1,076 million, with a gross profit of RMB823 million, resulting in a gross margin of 76.5%. The company incurred operating expenses of RMB2,334 million, leading to an operating loss of RMB1,488 million [11][13]. - For FY24, the revenue is projected to reach RMB1,601 million, with a gross profit of RMB1,225 million, maintaining a gross margin of 76.5% [11][10]. - The net profit for FY24 is expected to be a loss of RMB1,451 million, improving to a loss of RMB1,070 million in FY25, and further narrowing to a loss of RMB362 million in FY26 [11][10].
PHEVs key to FY24; Earnings likely still resilient
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-02 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$13.00, implying a 39.2% upside from the current price of HK$9.34 [2][3][4] Core Views - The Tank brand, pick-up trucks, and exports are expected to support Great Wall Motor's earnings in FY24E, with projected sales volume increasing by 10% YoY to 1.35 million units and net profit rising by 13% YoY to RMB 7.9 billion [2][3] - PHEVs are identified as key to the company's electrification strategy, while BEV sales volume is projected to decline YoY in FY24E due to a lack of competitive products [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 173.2 billion in FY23A to RMB 197.2 billion in FY24E, representing a 13.8% YoY growth [3][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 7.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 7.9 billion in FY24E, reflecting a 13.0% YoY growth [3][6] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is revised up by 0.4 percentage points to 18.6% for FY24E, driven by better-than-expected margins from PHEVs [2][3] Sales and Profitability - 1Q24E net profit is projected to be approximately RMB 1.6 billion, with a net profit per vehicle of RMB 5,800, which is 6% higher than in 4Q23 [2][3] - The company’s GPM for 4Q23 is estimated to be around 21%, indicating stable profitability despite a 25% QoQ sales volume decline [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Great Wall Motor's success in off-road style SUVs has positively impacted PHEV sales and margins, although challenges remain in transitioning to BEVs [2][3] - The upcoming Beijing Auto Show is anticipated to be a positive catalyst for share price, particularly with the debut of new PHEV models [2][3]
Strong outlook, but vague on details
西牛证券· 2024-04-02 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Newborn Town (09911.HK) is "BUY" with a target price of HK$ 3.31, reduced from the previous target price of HK$ 3.78 [20][28]. Core Insights - Newborn Town reported a total revenue of RMB 3.3 billion and a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 512.8 million, slightly exceeding estimates. The strong performance of apps like Sugo and TopTop in the MENA market contributed significantly, with revenue increases of approximately 3x and 2x year-on-year respectively. However, the app Mico experienced a significant decline of over 30% year-on-year, which was unexpected and negatively impacted overall performance [9][26][28]. - The company aims to develop two more flagship social networking apps with expected monthly revenues exceeding USD 10 million within three years, although details on these apps remain limited [9][28]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 4,190.7 million in 2024, RMB 4,542.0 million in 2025, and RMB 4,880.5 million in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 8.4%, and 7.5% respectively [6][16]. - Gross margin has shown resilience, maintaining above 50%, with a reported gross margin of 52.1% for 2023, an increase of 14.3 percentage points from previous estimates [10][22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 449.5 million in 2024, RMB 472.1 million in 2025, and RMB 499.3 million in 2026, indicating a growth trajectory despite challenges [24][32]. Market Position and Competitors - Newborn Town's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 3.1 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 1.85 [5][21]. - The company is positioned within a competitive landscape, with peers showing varied performance metrics, highlighting the challenges faced in replicating successful app performance [14][31].
Impressive business rebound in 2023
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
M N 2 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) Impressive business rebound in 2023 Target Price HK$4.43 Jinxin Fertility (Jinxin) reported 2023 revenue of RMB2,789mn, up 18.0% YoY. (Previous TP HK$7.35) Non-IFRS adjusted net profit grew substantially by 72.0% YoY to RMB472mn. Up/Downside 82.3% Revenue was in line with our forecast while non-IFRS adjusted net income Current Price HK$2.43 slightly missed our forecast by 5.7%, which was mainly attr ...
Expect business rebound in 2024E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
M N 2 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tigermed (300347 CH) Expect business rebound in 2024E Target Price RMB68.57 Tigermed reported 2023 revenue of RMB7,384mn, up 4.2% YoY, and attributable (Previous TP RMB80.31) recurring net income of RMB1,477mn, down 4.1% YoY. Revenue/ attributable Up/Downside 29.1% recurring net income missed our forecast by 2.9%/ 12.1%, respectively, mainly Current Price RMB53.10 due to shrinking COVID vaccine revenue, slowdown in global R&D ...
Xiaomi EV SU7’s pricing and pre-order above expectations; Raise TP to HK$22.19
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new SOTP-based target price of HK$22.19, reflecting a 49% upside from the current price of HK$14.94 [1][15]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 Series electric sedans launched on March 28, 2024, with competitive pricing and strong initial pre-orders, indicating positive market reception. The pre-orders reached 50,000 units in the first 27 minutes and 89,000 units within 24 hours, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as a major competitive advantage over other EV brands, which is expected to drive future growth [1][2]. - Adjustments to revenue forecasts reflect expected EV shipments of 80,000, 150,000, and 200,000 units for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB 321,495 million, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6%. The adjusted net profit is estimated at RMB 17,321 million, reflecting a decline of 10.1% year-on-year [4][10]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 19.0% for FY24, with an operating margin of 4.8% and an adjusted net margin of 5.4% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is projected at RMB 0.70, with subsequent years showing gradual increases [4][10]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning different price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples to Xiaomi's various business segments: 13x for smartphones, 10x for AIoT, and 15x for internet services. The EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E price-to-sales (P/S) [15][16]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 508,115 million, leading to a target price of HK$22.19 [16].
India Manufacturing PMI at 16-year high of 59.1 in March
S&P Global PMI· 2024-04-01 16:00
Group 1: Manufacturing Performance - India's Manufacturing PMI reached a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, up from 56.9 in February, indicating strong growth in the manufacturing sector[6] - The growth of new orders accelerated to the fastest rate in nearly three-and-a-half years, driven by robust domestic and export demand[6] - Manufacturing output increased for the thirty-third consecutive month, with the highest growth since October 2020[6] Group 2: Employment and Input Costs - Employment in the manufacturing sector returned to positive territory, marking the best job creation pace since September 2023[17] - Input cost inflation picked up in March, with companies reporting higher costs for materials such as cotton, iron, and steel[17] - Despite cost pressures, fewer than 5% of companies increased selling prices, leading to the weakest output charge inflation in over a year[17] Group 3: Inventory and Purchasing Trends - Input inventories saw the second-sharpest increase in the survey's history, reflecting companies' efforts to build stocks ahead of expected sales improvements[6] - Quantities of purchases rose at the quickest rate since mid-2023, among the strongest in nearly 13 years[6] - Capital goods showed the brightest area for both input buying and stockpiling, indicating a positive outlook for investment goods[6]
Recovery could be not earlier than 1H24
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Joinn Laboratories with a target price revised to HK$14.41 from HK$21.18, reflecting a potential upside of 57.1% from the current price of HK$9.17 [2][4]. Core Insights - Joinn Laboratories reported a revenue of RMB2,376 million for 2023, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase, while attributable net income fell by 66.9% to RMB338 million due to fair value losses from biological assets [2]. - The company anticipates that revenue for 2024 will remain on par with 2023, facing continued pressure on profitability due to uncertainties in the R&D recovery of the domestic pharmaceutical market [2]. - Early signs of stabilizing client demand were noted, with a 20% year-over-year growth in contract booking volume in January-February 2024 [2]. - Joinn's overseas business saw a significant revenue increase of 51% year-over-year in 2023, driven by the performance of Biomere [2]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Joinn's revenue was RMB2,376 million, with a projected revenue of RMB2,425 million for FY24, indicating a modest growth of 2.0% [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB481.6 million, with expectations of RMB436 million for FY24, reflecting a decline of 9.5% [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decrease to 38.08% in FY24, with operating and net margins also projected to decline [5][12]. Operational Developments - Joinn has completed the construction of its Phase II facilities in Suzhou and is strategically planning the operational launch of these sites in line with market conditions [2]. - The company plans to hire an additional 100-200 staff in 2024 to support growth in emerging service areas, particularly clinical services [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation with a WACC of 12.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, leading to a target price of HK$14.41 per share [7][4]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24 is projected at RMB0.58, with a P/E ratio of 15.5x for FY24 [3][12].