India Manufacturing PMI at 16-year high of 59.1 in March
S&P Global PMI· 2024-04-01 16:00
Group 1: Manufacturing Performance - India's Manufacturing PMI reached a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, up from 56.9 in February, indicating strong growth in the manufacturing sector[6] - The growth of new orders accelerated to the fastest rate in nearly three-and-a-half years, driven by robust domestic and export demand[6] - Manufacturing output increased for the thirty-third consecutive month, with the highest growth since October 2020[6] Group 2: Employment and Input Costs - Employment in the manufacturing sector returned to positive territory, marking the best job creation pace since September 2023[17] - Input cost inflation picked up in March, with companies reporting higher costs for materials such as cotton, iron, and steel[17] - Despite cost pressures, fewer than 5% of companies increased selling prices, leading to the weakest output charge inflation in over a year[17] Group 3: Inventory and Purchasing Trends - Input inventories saw the second-sharpest increase in the survey's history, reflecting companies' efforts to build stocks ahead of expected sales improvements[6] - Quantities of purchases rose at the quickest rate since mid-2023, among the strongest in nearly 13 years[6] - Capital goods showed the brightest area for both input buying and stockpiling, indicating a positive outlook for investment goods[6]
Recovery could be not earlier than 1H24
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Joinn Laboratories with a target price revised to HK$14.41 from HK$21.18, reflecting a potential upside of 57.1% from the current price of HK$9.17 [2][4]. Core Insights - Joinn Laboratories reported a revenue of RMB2,376 million for 2023, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase, while attributable net income fell by 66.9% to RMB338 million due to fair value losses from biological assets [2]. - The company anticipates that revenue for 2024 will remain on par with 2023, facing continued pressure on profitability due to uncertainties in the R&D recovery of the domestic pharmaceutical market [2]. - Early signs of stabilizing client demand were noted, with a 20% year-over-year growth in contract booking volume in January-February 2024 [2]. - Joinn's overseas business saw a significant revenue increase of 51% year-over-year in 2023, driven by the performance of Biomere [2]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Joinn's revenue was RMB2,376 million, with a projected revenue of RMB2,425 million for FY24, indicating a modest growth of 2.0% [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB481.6 million, with expectations of RMB436 million for FY24, reflecting a decline of 9.5% [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decrease to 38.08% in FY24, with operating and net margins also projected to decline [5][12]. Operational Developments - Joinn has completed the construction of its Phase II facilities in Suzhou and is strategically planning the operational launch of these sites in line with market conditions [2]. - The company plans to hire an additional 100-200 staff in 2024 to support growth in emerging service areas, particularly clinical services [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation with a WACC of 12.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, leading to a target price of HK$14.41 per share [7][4]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24 is projected at RMB0.58, with a P/E ratio of 15.5x for FY24 [3][12].
Non-auto CoR better than expected; sustain 40%+ payout in next two years
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a new target price (TTM) of HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/B [2][7] Core Views - PICC P&C reported a solid underwriting combined ratio (CoR) of 97.8%, 0.3pct lower than the estimate, driven by better-than-expected non-auto CoR at 99.1% [2] - The company is expected to sustain a payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years, with a dividend yield of 5.7% in FY24E [2][7] - The auto segment met guidance with a CoR of 96.9%, while non-auto outperformed, particularly in individual A&H, which achieved RMB1.0bn underwriting profits [2] - The company's long-term auto premium growth is adjusted to 5%, with NEV profitability expected to improve [2] Financial Performance - Net profit for FY23A was RMB24.6bn, with EPS of RMB1.11, and is expected to grow to RMB30.0bn in FY24E [4] - The combined ratio is forecasted to improve from 97.8% in FY23A to 96.9% by FY26E [4] - ROE is expected to recover from 10.8% in FY23A to 12.6% by FY26E [4] Valuation - The stock is currently trading at 0.84x FY24 P/B, with a target valuation of HK$11.9 based on P/B-ROE [7][8] - Key valuation assumptions include a long-term growth rate of 3%, a revised long-term ROE of 12.8%, and a cost of equity of 9.7% [7] Dividend Policy - The company raised DPS by 2.3% YoY to RMB0.489 per share in 2023, maintaining a payout ratio of 44.2% [2] - Management guided to maintain a robust payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years [2] Segment Performance - Auto premiums grew by 5.3% YoY to RMB285.6bn, with a conversion rate of 98.8% [2] - Non-auto individual A&H achieved RMB43.7bn in insurance revenue, growing 23.8% YoY, with a CoR of 97.7% [2] Future Outlook - The company expects a lift in auto comprehensive loss ratio and a contraction in comprehensive expense ratio to 70.6%/26.1% in FY24E [2] - NEV profitability is anticipated to improve, with NEV CoR expected to drop below 100% [2]
To Answer the Question of Why I Invest in China
Bridgewater· 2024-03-31 16:00
To Answer the Question of Why I Invest in China I invest in China because... ...I can't diversify as well as I'd like to without investing in China. For example, China and the US are the only dominant powers in the most important industries and how these two nations are with each other will shape the world. ...I have invested throughout many cycles in many countries and learned the adage "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets." In other words, the time to buy is when everyone hates the marke ...
Reiterate BUY on multiple growth drivers in 2024
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-31 16:00
M N 29 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BYDE (285 HK) Reiterate BUY on multiple growth drivers in 2024 Target Price HK$46.51 Reiterate BUY and raise TP to HK$46.51 (61% upside) to reflect a strong (Previous TP HK$45.86) outlook and multiple growth drivers in 2024: 1) Android high-end demand Up/Downside 61.2% recovery (e.g. Huawei, Xiaomi); 2) Jabil sales synergy and strong ramp in 2H24; Current Price HK$28.85 3) Apple’s share gain with sales contribution rising to ...
S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI Production dips for first time in three months
S&P Global· 2024-03-31 16:00
News Release Production dips for first time in three months Strongest optimism since September 2022 Embargoed until 0730 ICT (0030 UTC) 1 April 2024 Key findings Subdued demand leads to falls in output and new orders Source: S&P Global PMI. After recording marginal improvements in the opening two months of the year, business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector were broadly unchanged in March. Output and new orders both ticked lower, while a subdued demand environment led to a slower rise in in ...
Solar power business remains major investor concern during site visit
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a new target price of HK$8, based on 11x 2024E P/E, reflecting a significant decrease from the previous target price of HK$15.40 [2][4] Core Views - The solar power business remains a major concern for investors, leading to a downward revision of earnings forecasts by 27% for 2024E and 30% for 2025E [2] - Despite challenges in the solar segment, overseas sales of large mining trucks and telescopic handlers are expected to drive growth [2] - The company aims for RMB5 billion in revenue from solar products, equipment, and solar farms in 2024E, with a focus on business diversification [2] Earnings Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB20.3 billion, a 30.5% increase YoY, with adjusted net profit at RMB1.9 billion, reflecting a 15.9% growth YoY [3][5] - The net debt/equity ratio is projected to rise to 30.8% in 2024E, up from 21% at the end of 2023 [2][5] - The company targets revenue growth to RMB26.7 billion in 2024E, with a projected adjusted net profit of RMB2.1 billion [3][12] Segment Performance - Revenue from large mining trucks surged 4.9x YoY to RMB1.1 billion in 2023, with a target of RMB1.8 billion in 2024E [2] - Telescopic handlers also showed significant growth, with revenue increasing 2.6x YoY to RMB760 million in 2023, targeting RMB1.5 billion in 2024E [2] - Large-size port machinery revenue was RMB1.2 billion in 2023, with a backlog of RMB3.6 billion providing visibility for future revenue [2] Regional Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Mainland China increased to RMB13.9 billion in 2023, while sales in Russia grew significantly by 175.6% [9] - The company experienced a decline in sales to the USA, which dropped by 12.9% [9] Key Financial Metrics - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB0.67, with a P/E ratio of 6.9x [3][12] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 25.6% in 2024E [10]
tgeg-global-equity-pulse-0424-us
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON· 2024-03-31 16:00
In our view, prudent stock selection and portfolio positioning remain critical as investors navigate the push-and-pull effects of lower interest rates. Despite impending rate cuts, interest rates are unlikely to return to the near-zero level during the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, companies with weak balance sheets should not be expected to see improved financial health and sustained earnings growth just on rate cuts alone. Rate cuts may particularly drag on the profitability and shareholder return of the fi ...
us-emerging-markets-insights-0424
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON· 2024-03-31 16:00
Emerging Markets Insights Exhibit 1: Emerging Market Country Performance As of March 31, 2024 One-month performance 12-month performance India Taiwan South Korea Brazil Thailand China South Africa Egypt Mexico Qatar Colombia Chile Poland Saudi Arabia Peru Indonesia Turkey Greece Philippines Czech Republic United Arab Emirates Malaysia Hungary Kuwait -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Sources: FactSet, MSCI. Note: Bubbles size reflect relative market capitalization, ...
National-Strategy-on-Microelectronics-Research-March-2024
NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL(USA)· 2024-03-30 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the microelectronics industry. Core Insights - The microelectronics industry is critical for the U.S. economy and national security, with significant investments from the bipartisan CHIPS Act aimed at revitalizing domestic manufacturing and enhancing the R&D ecosystem [14][26]. - The strategy outlines four interconnected goals to strengthen the microelectronics sector over the next five years, focusing on research advancements, infrastructure support, workforce development, and innovation ecosystem creation [16][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The microelectronics revolution has transformed modern life, impacting various sectors such as communications, healthcare, and transportation, making it essential for U.S. economic and national security [21][23]. - The U.S. share of global semiconductor manufacturing has significantly declined, necessitating action to increase domestic capacity and workforce training [21][24]. Goals and Objectives - **Goal 1**: Enable and accelerate research advances for future generations of microelectronics, focusing on materials, circuit design, processing architectures, and manufacturing tools [16][22]. - **Goal 2**: Support and bridge microelectronics infrastructure from research to manufacturing, enhancing access to design tools and fabrication resources [17][22]. - **Goal 3**: Grow and sustain the technical workforce for the microelectronics ecosystem, emphasizing education and public engagement [18][22]. - **Goal 4**: Create a vibrant microelectronics innovation ecosystem to facilitate the transition of R&D to U.S. industry, fostering collaboration among stakeholders [19][22]. Microelectronics Innovation Ecosystem - The microelectronics innovation ecosystem is complex and capital-intensive, with limited access to leading-edge capabilities for researchers, which constrains innovation [34][35]. - The CHIPS Act investments aim to enhance access to advanced infrastructure and support workforce development [35][36]. Future Directions - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to R&D across the full stack of microelectronics technology, addressing challenges in fabrication, testing, and integration [31][32]. - International collaboration and tech diplomacy are crucial for leveraging resources and ensuring supply chain security in the global semiconductor landscape [33][36].