Non-auto CoR better than expected; sustain 40%+ payout in next two years
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a new target price (TTM) of HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/B [2][7] Core Views - PICC P&C reported a solid underwriting combined ratio (CoR) of 97.8%, 0.3pct lower than the estimate, driven by better-than-expected non-auto CoR at 99.1% [2] - The company is expected to sustain a payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years, with a dividend yield of 5.7% in FY24E [2][7] - The auto segment met guidance with a CoR of 96.9%, while non-auto outperformed, particularly in individual A&H, which achieved RMB1.0bn underwriting profits [2] - The company's long-term auto premium growth is adjusted to 5%, with NEV profitability expected to improve [2] Financial Performance - Net profit for FY23A was RMB24.6bn, with EPS of RMB1.11, and is expected to grow to RMB30.0bn in FY24E [4] - The combined ratio is forecasted to improve from 97.8% in FY23A to 96.9% by FY26E [4] - ROE is expected to recover from 10.8% in FY23A to 12.6% by FY26E [4] Valuation - The stock is currently trading at 0.84x FY24 P/B, with a target valuation of HK$11.9 based on P/B-ROE [7][8] - Key valuation assumptions include a long-term growth rate of 3%, a revised long-term ROE of 12.8%, and a cost of equity of 9.7% [7] Dividend Policy - The company raised DPS by 2.3% YoY to RMB0.489 per share in 2023, maintaining a payout ratio of 44.2% [2] - Management guided to maintain a robust payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years [2] Segment Performance - Auto premiums grew by 5.3% YoY to RMB285.6bn, with a conversion rate of 98.8% [2] - Non-auto individual A&H achieved RMB43.7bn in insurance revenue, growing 23.8% YoY, with a CoR of 97.7% [2] Future Outlook - The company expects a lift in auto comprehensive loss ratio and a contraction in comprehensive expense ratio to 70.6%/26.1% in FY24E [2] - NEV profitability is anticipated to improve, with NEV CoR expected to drop below 100% [2]
To Answer the Question of Why I Invest in China
Bridgewater· 2024-03-31 16:00
To Answer the Question of Why I Invest in China I invest in China because... ...I can't diversify as well as I'd like to without investing in China. For example, China and the US are the only dominant powers in the most important industries and how these two nations are with each other will shape the world. ...I have invested throughout many cycles in many countries and learned the adage "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets." In other words, the time to buy is when everyone hates the marke ...
Reiterate BUY on multiple growth drivers in 2024
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-31 16:00
M N 29 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BYDE (285 HK) Reiterate BUY on multiple growth drivers in 2024 Target Price HK$46.51 Reiterate BUY and raise TP to HK$46.51 (61% upside) to reflect a strong (Previous TP HK$45.86) outlook and multiple growth drivers in 2024: 1) Android high-end demand Up/Downside 61.2% recovery (e.g. Huawei, Xiaomi); 2) Jabil sales synergy and strong ramp in 2H24; Current Price HK$28.85 3) Apple’s share gain with sales contribution rising to ...
S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI Production dips for first time in three months
S&P Global· 2024-03-31 16:00
News Release Production dips for first time in three months Strongest optimism since September 2022 Embargoed until 0730 ICT (0030 UTC) 1 April 2024 Key findings Subdued demand leads to falls in output and new orders Source: S&P Global PMI. After recording marginal improvements in the opening two months of the year, business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector were broadly unchanged in March. Output and new orders both ticked lower, while a subdued demand environment led to a slower rise in in ...
Solar power business remains major investor concern during site visit
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-31 16:00
M N 29 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update SANY International (631 HK) Solar power business remains major investor concern during site visit Target Price HK$8.00 We attended SANYI’s 2023 post-results meeting together with >70 investors and analysts in the Company’s production base in Zhuhai on 28 Mar. During the (Previous TP HK$15.40) meeting, most of the questions were related to the solar power business. Given Up/Downside 59.0% SANYI’s determination to invest in so ...
tgeg-global-equity-pulse-0424-us
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON· 2024-03-31 16:00
In our view, prudent stock selection and portfolio positioning remain critical as investors navigate the push-and-pull effects of lower interest rates. Despite impending rate cuts, interest rates are unlikely to return to the near-zero level during the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, companies with weak balance sheets should not be expected to see improved financial health and sustained earnings growth just on rate cuts alone. Rate cuts may particularly drag on the profitability and shareholder return of the fi ...
us-emerging-markets-insights-0424
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON· 2024-03-31 16:00
Emerging Markets Insights Exhibit 1: Emerging Market Country Performance As of March 31, 2024 One-month performance 12-month performance India Taiwan South Korea Brazil Thailand China South Africa Egypt Mexico Qatar Colombia Chile Poland Saudi Arabia Peru Indonesia Turkey Greece Philippines Czech Republic United Arab Emirates Malaysia Hungary Kuwait -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Sources: FactSet, MSCI. Note: Bubbles size reflect relative market capitalization, ...
National-Strategy-on-Microelectronics-Research-March-2024
NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL(USA)· 2024-03-30 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the microelectronics industry. Core Insights - The microelectronics industry is critical for the U.S. economy and national security, with significant investments from the bipartisan CHIPS Act aimed at revitalizing domestic manufacturing and enhancing the R&D ecosystem [14][26]. - The strategy outlines four interconnected goals to strengthen the microelectronics sector over the next five years, focusing on research advancements, infrastructure support, workforce development, and innovation ecosystem creation [16][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The microelectronics revolution has transformed modern life, impacting various sectors such as communications, healthcare, and transportation, making it essential for U.S. economic and national security [21][23]. - The U.S. share of global semiconductor manufacturing has significantly declined, necessitating action to increase domestic capacity and workforce training [21][24]. Goals and Objectives - **Goal 1**: Enable and accelerate research advances for future generations of microelectronics, focusing on materials, circuit design, processing architectures, and manufacturing tools [16][22]. - **Goal 2**: Support and bridge microelectronics infrastructure from research to manufacturing, enhancing access to design tools and fabrication resources [17][22]. - **Goal 3**: Grow and sustain the technical workforce for the microelectronics ecosystem, emphasizing education and public engagement [18][22]. - **Goal 4**: Create a vibrant microelectronics innovation ecosystem to facilitate the transition of R&D to U.S. industry, fostering collaboration among stakeholders [19][22]. Microelectronics Innovation Ecosystem - The microelectronics innovation ecosystem is complex and capital-intensive, with limited access to leading-edge capabilities for researchers, which constrains innovation [34][35]. - The CHIPS Act investments aim to enhance access to advanced infrastructure and support workforce development [35][36]. Future Directions - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to R&D across the full stack of microelectronics technology, addressing challenges in fabrication, testing, and integration [31][32]. - International collaboration and tech diplomacy are crucial for leveraging resources and ensuring supply chain security in the global semiconductor landscape [33][36].
Digital lifestyle leading growth; ZA Bank and technology export breakeven on track
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-28 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a new target price of HK$22.0 [2][6] Core Viewpoints - ZhongAn reported a significant turnaround in FY23, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB4.1bn, compared to a net loss of RMB1.1bn in FY22 [2] - Excluding the one-off gain from the disposal of ZA International (RMB3.78bn), the insurer recorded a net profit of RMB294mn, in line with consensus [2] - The company's growth is driven by its digital lifestyle ecosystem, technology export, and ZA Bank's breakeven progress [2][6] Domestic P&C Insurance - Domestic P&C insurance premiums grew by 33.1% YoY in 2H23, driven by digital lifestyle-related products such as e-commerce cargo insurance, travel insurance, and pet insurance [2] - The underwriting combined ratio (CoR) rose 1.0ppt to 95.2% in 2023, but underwriting profit (UWP) increased by 1.7% YoY to RMB1.3bn due to higher insurance revenue (+24.2% YoY) [2] - The health segment saw a 130.6% YoY increase in gross written premiums (GWP) for critical illness insurance, reaching RMB1.3bn in 2023 [2] Technology Export - Revenue from domestic technology export surged 73% YoY to RMB504mn in 2023, benefiting from the Digital China initiative [2] ZA Bank Performance - ZA Bank's net revenue increased by 42.9% YoY to RMB366mn in 2023, with a net interest margin (NIM) expansion of 10bps to 1.94% [2] - The bank launched US-stock trading in January 2024, which is expected to attract tech-savvy customers and improve retention [2] Proprietary Channels - Premiums from proprietary channels grew 31.0% YoY to RMB7.6bn, accounting for 26% of total GWP [2] - In the Health ecosystem, GWP from proprietary channels increased by 45.0% YoY to RMB4.4bn, representing 44.5% of total Health GWP [2] - The number of paid customers rose 14.8% to 11.43mn, with premiums per user increasing by 14.4% YoY to RMB670 [2] Financial Projections - FY24-26E net profit is projected at RMB434mn, RMB547mn, and RMB678mn, respectively [3] - The underwriting combined ratio (CoR) is expected to remain stable at 95.8%/96.0%/96.0% for FY24-26E, with underwriting profits projected at RMB1.38bn/RMB1.56bn/RMB1.77bn [6] Valuation - The stock is trading at FY24E 0.9x P/B and FY24E 0.5x P/S [5] - The fair value is based on a FY24E P/B of 1.46x, implying a 20-year growth rate of 8% [6]
Sales beats as new markets continue to succeed
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for DPC Dash with a target price of HK$73.05, reflecting a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price of HK$53.50 [6][8][17]. Core Insights - DPC Dash's FY23 results were in line with expectations, showing a 51% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 3.1 billion, driven by strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) and increased sales per store in new growth markets [2][9]. - The company is optimistic about FY24E, expecting continued positive SSSG despite challenges such as a high base from FY23 and seasonal factors affecting sales [2][9]. - The management has reiterated its store opening plan, targeting 240 new stores in FY24E, with a more positive outlook for FY25E-26E, aiming for 300 to 350 new stores [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,051 million in FY23A to RMB 4,118 million in FY24E, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [3][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve to 1.3% in FY24E, with net profit projected to turn positive at RMB 15 million [3][10]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 72.6% for FY24E [10][11]. Sales and Growth Projections - DPC Dash's sales per store in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to grow by 3% and 5% respectively, while new growth markets are anticipated to see higher growth rates [2][10]. - The company has seen strong initial sales in new cities, with first-month sales exceeding RMB 5 million in locations like Xi'an and Changsha [2][9]. - The delivery mix in new growth markets remains low at 42%, indicating potential for future growth in SSSG [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that DPC Dash is currently trading at 1.5x FY24E P/S, which is higher than the peer average of 1.3x, but still considered attractive due to a projected 32% sales CAGR from FY23 to FY26E [2][6][13]. - A DCF valuation method supports a share price estimate of HK$73.14, aligning closely with the target price based on P/S multiples [17][18].