Key Takeaways BABA unveils breakthrough Qwen3-Next AI model with 80B parameters but uses only 3B during inference.Alibaba commits $52B over three years for AI infrastructure while developing custom training chips.Despite AI advances, the cloud division shows modest 6% growth amid intense competition from Baidu.Alibaba's (BABA) aggressive push into AI has reached an inflection point in September 2025, with the Chinese tech giant unveiling groundbreaking models that challenge Western dominance in generative A ...

US equity futures are fractionally lower with small caps lagging as the record-breaking rally in stocks appeared to be running out of steam. At 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures slid 0.1% after all major US indexes hit all-time highs on Thursday, however Nasdaq 100 futures are still in the green amid an relentless tech bid: Microsoft rose in premarket trading, leading the Mag 7 after it avoided a hefty antitrust penalty from the European Union. Europe’s Stoxx 600 eased as well. Incremental headlines after yesterda ...

“[Thursday’s] CPI report has been trumped by the jobless claims report,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “If anything, the jump in jobless claims will inject a bit more urgency in the Fed’s decision-making, with Powell likely signaling a sequence of rate cuts is on the way.”The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Thursday showed that consumer prices rose +0.4% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation picked up to +2.9% in Au ...

Fiscal Landscape - The U.S. government's interest payments on its national debt have reached a record $1.21 trillion, surpassing the entire defense budget for the first time since at least 1940 [2][9] - Projections indicate that interest payments could rise to $1.6 trillion by 2034, consuming over 20% of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [3][9] Global Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing stable inflation and a resilient economic outlook, with future decisions being data-dependent [4][9] - Anticipation is building for the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut in the U.S., following mixed economic data, which has positively impacted gold prices [5][9] Corporate and Energy News - Baidu's Hong Kong shares are expected to open 3.8% higher, reflecting positive market sentiment [13] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a higher oil surplus estimate, leading to a decline in crude prices [14] - Petronas has delivered Malaysia's first blended sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to KL International Airport, marking a step towards sustainability [14] International Trade - A U.S. envoy has expressed optimism about resolving a tariff dispute with India, as negotiations continue to address the trade imbalance [15]

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC in an interview on Tuesday that the record revision to U.S. payrolls data underscores that the U.S. economy is contending with a slowdown. “The economy is weakening,” Dimon said. “Whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”“The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight the need to ease rates. Investors should expect the Fed to officiall ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has established itself as the leader in the AI boom, with sales projected to grow from $27 billion in FY'23 to $200 billion in the current fiscal year, driven by its high-performance GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem [2] - The company's stock valuation is nearly 40 times forward earnings, reflecting both its leadership position and expectations for continued multi-year growth [2] Group 1: AI Training vs. Inference - The AI landscape is evolving, with a potential shift from training to inference, which could impact Nvidia's growth as its success has been primarily linked to training workloads [5][6] - Incremental performance improvements in AI training are diminishing, and access to high-quality training data is becoming a limiting factor, suggesting that the most demanding phase of AI training may plateau [5] - Inference, which applies trained models to new data in real-time, is less intensive per task but occurs continuously, presenting opportunities for mid-performance and cost-effective chip alternatives [6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AMD is emerging as a significant competitor in the inference market, with its chips offering competitive performance and cost advantages [8] - Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) are gaining traction for inference workloads due to their cost and power efficiency, with companies like Marvell and Broadcom positioned to benefit from this trend [9] - Major U.S. tech firms like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are developing their own AI chips, which could reduce their reliance on Nvidia's GPUs and impact Nvidia's revenue [10] Group 3: International Developments - Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Huawei are enhancing their AI chip initiatives, with Alibaba planning to introduce a new inference chip to ensure a reliable semiconductor supply amid U.S. export restrictions [11] - While Nvidia's GPUs are expected to remain integral to Alibaba's AI training operations, inference is anticipated to become a long-term growth driver for the company [11] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Despite Nvidia's strong position due to its established ecosystem and R&D investments, the competitive landscape for inference is becoming increasingly crowded, raising concerns about potential revenue impacts from any slowdown in growth [12] - The critical question for investors is whether Nvidia's growth trajectory can meet the high expectations set by the market, especially if the economics of inference do not prove as advantageous as those of training [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **AI industry in China**, particularly the adoption and monetization of AI technologies by major internet and software companies in Q2 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - **AI Adoption**: Companies are increasingly integrating AI into their products and services to enhance user experience and maintain competitiveness. This includes innovations in search, content recommendation, and productivity tools [1]. - **Internal Efficiency Gains**: There is a notable rise in the use of AI for coding, AI-generated content (AIGC), and customer service, which has led to improvements in gross and operating margins [1]. - **Monetization Progress**: Direct monetization of AI products is advancing, especially in content generation, with significant revenue growth reported in various sectors [2]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Major Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) have seen revenue forecasts raised by 2% to 9% for 2025, driven by increasing AI-related demand. For instance, Kuaishou's revenue from AI video generation reached RMB 250 million, up 67% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - **Advertising Impact**: Companies like Bilibili and Weibo reported over 10% increases in effective cost per mille (eCPM) for performance-based ads due to AI enhancements, while Tencent noted improvements in click-through rates and return on investment (ROI) for advertisers [2][25]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) Trends - **Stable Capex Outlook**: Chinese internet leaders are maintaining their capex guidance for the year, focusing on improving chip utilization and efficiency, particularly in light of uncertain US chip supplies [3]. - **Investment in Domestic Chips**: There is a rising emphasis on domestic chip options to mitigate supply chain risks, with companies like DeepSeek and iFlytek making advancements in optimizing domestic GPU usage [3]. Stock Recommendations - **Positive Outlook on Stocks**: Analysts are optimistic about several companies: - **Tencent**: Benefiting from AI-driven ad growth and opportunities within the WeChat ecosystem [4]. - **Kuaishou**: Early revenue traction in video generation [4]. - **Alibaba**: As the largest cloud vendor in China and a leading provider of large language models (LLMs) [4]. - **Meitu and Kingdee**: Both companies are expected to benefit from AI monetization and successful transformations to subscription models [4]. Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: The evolving competitive environment poses risks, including intensified competition and fast-moving technology trends [36][37][38]. - **Monetization Uncertainty**: There are concerns regarding the pace of monetization and the rising costs associated with traffic acquisition and content promotion [36][39][40]. Additional Insights - **AI Integration in Services**: Companies are leveraging AI for various applications, including customer service automation, personalized marketing, and enhanced product functionalities [7][9]. - **Emerging AI Applications**: New AI-native applications are being developed, such as Amap's spatial intelligence features and DingTalk's next-generation workplace communication tools [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the advancements, financial performance, stock recommendations, and potential risks within the AI industry in China.

>> THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. MARKETS REMAIN IN WAIT AND SEE MODE AS CENTRAL BANKERS GATHERED IN JACKSON HOLE WITH INVESTORS AWAITING REMARKS FROM FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL. FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK SAYS SHE WILL NOT BE BULLIED INTO STEPPING DOWN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP DEMANDS HER RESIGNATION OVER ALLEGATIONS OF MORTGAGE FRAUD.AND ISRAEL IS DOUBLING ITS ARMY RESERVISTS IN THE WAR AGAINST HAMAS IN GAZA, A SIGN THAT PREPARATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR A STEPPED-UP OFFENSIVE DE ...

Lyft said it’s partnering with China’s Baidu to launch autonomous vehicles in Europe starting next year, an agreement that comes after the US rideshare company finalized its first expansion into the continent https://t.co/npkQZN6jcm ...

Group 1: Core Deal Insights - Uber Technologies, Inc. has made a multi-billion dollar investment in Lucid Motors Group, Inc. to deploy over 20,000 Lucid robotaxis on its ride-hailing platform over the next six years, starting in a major U.S. city next year [1] - The partnership is seen as a significant growth opportunity for Lucid, which sold about 10,000 EVs last year, helping to validate its position in the electric vehicle sector [3] - The deal is part of Uber's broader strategy of leveraging partnerships across the autonomous vehicle landscape rather than developing self-driving technology independently [4] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The partnership is influenced by the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF), which holds significant stakes in both Uber and Lucid, suggesting that cross-ownership may have facilitated the deal [5] - The economic viability of the venture is questioned, particularly regarding the profitability of rides in high-cost vehicles like Lucid's Gravity SUV, which starts at $95,000 [6][7] - The announcement is viewed as a "breakout moment" for autonomous vehicles, indicating increased competition and innovation in the sector, although the sustainability of the business model remains uncertain [8]