12 December 2025 Asia Tech Hardware Asia Tech Hardware: Hits, Misses, and Lessons Learned - 2025 in review Alex Wang, CFA +852 2123 2613 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2123 2660 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu +852 2123 2634 ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com As we approach the close of 2025, this report reviews what worked, what didn't, and the omissions made in our published research, along with the lessons learned. To our readers: Thank you for the support and the many engaging discussions ...

25 November 2025 | 12:16PM HKT Equity Research Sunny Optical (2382.HK): Mgmt. Call: AI / AR glasses to ride on growing demand and specification upgrade; solid smartphone market in 2026E Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xuan Zhang +852-2978-1478 | xuan.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. We hosted Sunny Optical management recently in our AI / AR glasses corp call series. Management re ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **smartphone sector**, particularly the impact of rising **memory prices** on **smartphone OEMs** (Original Equipment Manufacturers) such as **Xiaomi** and **Transsion**, as well as **camera component suppliers** [1][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Memory Price Trends**: - A strong demand from AI has led to a significant memory price increase, with mobile DRAM contract prices expected to rise by **30-40% QoQ** in **4QCY25** and potentially continue into **1HCY26** [2]. - NAND pricing is also expected to increase, albeit at a milder rate [2]. - **Impact on Smartphone OEMs**: - Rising memory prices affect low-to-mid-end smartphones more than flagship models. For example, memory accounts for **4%** of an iPhone's ASP, **7%** for a Xiaomi flagship, and over **10%** for a Redmi model [3][16]. - A **40% increase** in memory prices could reduce Xiaomi's smartphone gross margins by **2-3 percentage points**. Xiaomi may pass some costs to consumers, which could affect sales volume [3]. - **Xiaomi's Premiumization Strategy**: - Xiaomi's shift towards premium models is helping to offset some of the pressures from rising memory costs. The **Xiaomi 17 series** saw a **30% increase** in shipments compared to the previous generation, with **80%** of the mix being premium models [3]. - **Camera Component Suppliers**: - The correlation between memory pricing and camera lens margins is historically weak, with a delayed impact on camera modules. The camera lens market is more consolidated, leading to less margin impact from rising memory prices [3][42]. - The current memory upcycle is expected to negatively impact camera budgets for low-to-mid-end Android models, but high-end Android and Apple supply chains are less affected [44]. Additional Important Insights - **Sunny Optical's Outlook**: - Concerns regarding Sunny Optical's performance due to rising memory prices are considered overstated. The bear case suggests a **6%** revenue growth and **1%** EPS growth for 2026, which is below consensus estimates [4][66]. - The price target for Sunny Optical in the bear case is set at **HKD 82**, indicating a potential upside of **~25%** [4]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The smartphone market has been saturated since the late 2010s, with annual shipments fluctuating due to various factors, including the Huawei ban and COVID-19 [17][31]. - The transition from **memory downcycle** to **upcycle** is expected to stabilize the market, with both Xiaomi and Transsion gaining market share and improving ASPs [17]. - **Investment Ratings**: - Sunny Optical is rated **Outperform** with a price target of **HKD 110** [7]. - Xiaomi is also rated **Outperform** with a price target of **HKD 57** [9]. Conclusion - The rising memory prices present challenges for smartphone OEMs, particularly in the low-to-mid-end segments, while high-end models and Apple suppliers remain relatively insulated. The premiumization strategy of companies like Xiaomi may help mitigate some of these pressures. The outlook for camera component suppliers is mixed, with expectations of budget constraints for lower-end models but stability in high-end segments.

Summary of Sunny Optical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical (2382.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Market Cap**: Rmb 65,040 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$65.10 - **Price Target**: HK$90.00, indicating a potential upside of 38% [6][6][6] Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The focus on high-end products is a strategic response to potential headwinds from increasing memory costs [2][2][2] - High-end smartphone-related products are expected to be less affected by memory cost increases compared to low-end products [2][2][2] Strategic Initiatives - Starting in 2024, Sunny Optical has initiated a product mix optimization program aimed at reducing exposure to low-end products while increasing focus on high-end offerings [3][3][3] - This strategy has led to a decline in smartphone-related shipments; however, revenue growth remains strong due to an increase in average selling prices (ASP) [3][3][3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company aims to sustain revenue and margin growth in 2026 by focusing on market share gains and yield improvements with key customers [4][4][4] - Vehicle-related business growth is slightly above target, with margins aligning with expectations [4][4][4] - Positive growth outlook for Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) segments [4][4][4] Financial Metrics - **EPS Projections**: - 2024: Rmb 2.37 - 2025: Rmb 3.31 - 2026: Rmb 4.04 - 2027: Rmb 4.68 [6][6][6] - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024: Rmb 38,294 million - 2025: Rmb 43,915 million - 2026: Rmb 53,320 million - 2027: Rmb 61,704 million [6][6][6] - **P/E Ratios**: - 2024: 27.3 - 2025: 18.0 - 2026: 14.7 - 2027: 12.7 [6][6][6] Risks and Opportunities Upside Risks - Improvement in smartphone camera module (CCM) and lens gross margins [11][11][11] - Faster-than-expected growth in vehicle lens/module segments [11][11][11] - Potential share gains from new international clients [11][11][11] - Breakthroughs in mixed reality (MR) and smart glasses business [11][11][11] Downside Risks - Industry demand weakness could negatively impact gross margins [11][11][11] - Increased competition in smartphone CCM/lens market [11][11][11] - Weaker-than-expected growth in vehicle-related segments [11][11][11] Conclusion Sunny Optical is strategically positioning itself to mitigate risks associated with memory cost increases by focusing on high-end products. The company's financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue and EPS growth, although it faces potential risks from market competition and demand fluctuations.

Summary of Greater China Technology Hardware Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly in AI technology and hardware advancements [7][8]. Key Insights - **Opportunities in AI GPU and ASIC Servers**: There are significant opportunities in upgrading AI GPU and ASIC server designs, with major projects like GB300, Vera Rubin platform, and Kyber architecture showing promise [7][8]. - **AMD Helios Server Rack**: The AMD Helios server rack project is gaining traction, indicating a positive trend in server hardware demand [7]. - **Enhanced Computing Power**: AI ASIC servers are expected to enhance computing power and increase rack density, which is crucial for data centers [7]. - **Power Solution Upgrades**: Transitioning to 800V HVDC power architecture and the growing adoption of liquid cooling solutions are highlighted as key upgrades [7]. - **PCB/Substrate Capacity Expansion**: There is a wave of capacity expansion in PCB/substrate to support ongoing design upgrades, which is essential for meeting increased demand [7]. - **Data Network Improvements**: Upgrades in data and power interconnects are anticipated to improve data network transmission speed and capacity [7]. - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: The demand for consumer electronics is being impacted by rising memory costs, with Android smartphones being more vulnerable compared to iPhones [7]. - **Upcoming Foldable iPhone Models**: Anticipation for the release of foldable iPhone models in the second half of 2026 is noted as a potential market driver [7]. Stock Recommendations - **Key Stock Ideas**: - AI Server Hardware: Wistron, Hon Hai/FII, Wiwynn, Delta Electronics, AVC, BizLink, King Slide, Accton, Chenbro, Gold Circuits, Innolight, FIT, and Fositek [7]. - Edge AI: Xiaomi, Lenovo, Luxshare [7]. Valuation Comparison - A detailed valuation comparison of various companies within the Greater China Technology Hardware sector was provided, including metrics such as price, target price, EPS, P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and ROE [8]. - Notable companies included: - **Lite-On Tech**: Current price at 162.50, target price at 150.00, with a P/E ratio of 23.3 for 2025 [8]. - **Delta Electronics**: Current price at 922.00, target price at 1288.0, with a P/E ratio of 38.9 for 2025 [8]. - **Hon Hai**: Current price at 241.00, target price at 317.0, with a P/E ratio of 16.4 for 2025 [8]. - **Foxconn Tech**: Current price at 66.80, target price at 54.00, with a P/E ratio of 26.0 for 2025 [8]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering Morgan Stanley Research as one of several factors in investment decision-making, acknowledging potential conflicts of interest [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on various sectors, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as AIA Group, ASMPT, Atour, Hengrui, Sunny Optical, Tencent, and others [13][14][28][33]. Core Insights - The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes technological innovation, consumption rebalancing, and building a strong domestic market, which are expected to drive growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewables [14][29]. - The report anticipates a stable external environment for China, with net exports remaining a key growth driver despite potential challenges from high bases and external demand uncertainties [7]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary of government policies, with a focus on innovation and globalization, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals [29]. - The consumer sector is shifting towards experience and service consumption, with a growing emphasis on well-being and the silver economy, indicating potential growth areas for companies in these segments [27]. Economics - The report projects a growth target of around 5.0% YoY for 2026, with a focus on policy continuity and structural support for consumption [7]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to become a focal point, with potential for significant movements as trade tensions ease and internationalization efforts continue [7]. Commodities - The report notes a shift in China's commodity fundamentals due to economic transitions, with a focus on domestic demand and energy self-sufficiency [9][10]. - The Action Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry indicates a shift towards high-quality growth, with supply growth expected to remain constrained [9]. Sector Views - **Autos and Parts**: The sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in Robotaxi and ADAS technologies, with key players expected to benefit from commercialization efforts [19]. - **Banks**: The banking sector is expected to outperform due to positive earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly among large H-share banks [22]. - **Brokers**: The report highlights a trend of households reallocating wealth into equities, benefiting brokers as market proxies [26]. - **Consumer**: Key investment themes include a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on well-being, with specific companies identified as top buys [27][28]. - **Healthcare**: Innovation and globalization are seen as critical drivers, with a focus on companies with strong pipelines and global expansion capabilities [29]. - **Insurance**: The sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from comprehensive enhancements across various business lines [33]. Top Buys - The report lists several top buy recommendations across sectors, including AIA Group, Hengrui, Tencent, and Anta, among others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [13][14][28][33].

Summary of Apple Supply Chain Tracker Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: U.S. IT Hardware - **Company**: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Key Points and Arguments iPhone Sales Performance - The iPhone 17 launch has shown a notably stronger performance compared to previous launches, with September iPhone sell-through volumes up **15% YoY** and revenue up **10.8% YoY** [2][22] - Volume growth was particularly strong in Europe and Japan, with Europe seeing a **20.4% YoY** increase in sell-through units and Japan **18.2% YoY** [22][23] - The average selling price (ASP) has weakened **3.8% YoY**, partly due to the introduction of the lower-priced iPhone 16e [2][22] Channel Inventory - Channel inventory rose to **37 million units** following the September launch, with inventory weeks falling to a typical **7.2 weeks** due to elevated sales [3][31] - The September launch led to a surge in sell-in and sell-through, consistent with historical seasonality [31] Implications for Apple - Strong iPhone demand and decent service revenue provide confidence for Apple's upcoming FQ4'25 report, but concerns exist regarding ASP deterioration and its potential impact on gross margin [4][39] - iPhone revenue is expected to be in line with expectations, while services revenue is predicted to be slightly better than consensus estimates [40] Foundry and Memory Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit from strong iPhone momentum, with Apple upgrading all new models to new chips in 2024 [5] - DRAM content in iPhones is increasing, with **3 of 4 SKUs** expanding from **8GB to 12GB**, driving a **20% YoY** increase in blended DRAM content [5][48] Services vs. Hardware Growth - Apple's growth is increasingly driven by its services segment, which delivers consistent **12-15% annual growth**, while hardware remains more volatile due to seasonal factors [66] Additional Important Insights - The iPhone 17 lineup had a total unit sales increase of **20.6%** compared to the iPhone 16 and **29.6%** compared to the iPhone 15 in the first month of launch [22] - The ASP for the iPhone 17 Pro starts at **$1099**, which is **$100 higher** than the iPhone 16 Pro, indicating a higher overall ASP for the iPhone 17 lineup compared to the previous generation [22] - Apple's services revenue is predicted to be **$28,532 million**, slightly higher than consensus estimates, indicating a strong correlation with Sensor Tower's global App Store revenue [40] Investment Implications - Apple is rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **$290** due to stronger than expected iPhone 17 demand [8] - Other companies in the supply chain, such as SanDisk, Samsung Electronics, and TSMC, are also rated as **Outperform** with respective price targets reflecting positive outlooks [9][10][13]

Summary of Apple Supply Chain Tracker Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. IT Hardware, specifically focusing on Apple Inc. and its supply chain dynamics related to the iPhone 17 launch [1][8] Key Points iPhone Sales Performance - **Sales Growth**: iPhone 17 launch saw a 15% year-over-year (YoY) increase in sell-through volumes and a 10.8% YoY increase in revenue for September 2025 [2][22] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Despite the revenue growth, ASP declined by 3.8% YoY due to the introduction of the lower-priced iPhone 16e, which diluted the overall ASP [2][22] - **Regional Performance**: Strong volume growth was particularly noted in Europe (20.4% YoY) and Japan (18.2% YoY) [22][23] Channel Inventory - **Inventory Levels**: Channel inventory rose to 37 million units post-launch, with inventory weeks normalizing to 7.2 weeks due to strong sales [3][34] - **Sell-in vs. Sell-through**: Elevated sell-in was observed during the September launch, consistent with historical patterns, but strong sales kept inventory levels healthy [34] Implications for Apple - **Demand vs. ASP Concerns**: While strong demand for iPhones is evident, concerns about ASP deterioration could impact gross margins. The estimated ASP for iPhones is lower than consensus, suggesting potential revenue alignment with expectations for FQ4'25 [4][42] - **Services Revenue**: Services revenue is projected to be slightly better than estimates, with a predicted revenue of $28.5 billion for FQ4, based on strong correlations with App Store revenue [43][42] Foundry and Memory Insights - **Foundry Dynamics**: TSMC is expected to benefit from the iPhone 17's strong sales, with all new models utilizing upgraded chips, indicating sustained momentum [5][46] - **Memory Content Growth**: Significant DRAM content improvements were noted, with 3 out of 4 SKUs expanding from 8GB to 12GB, leading to a 20% YoY increase in blended DRAM content [5][49] Supplier Performance - **Luxshare and Camera Suppliers**: Luxshare benefits from a high revenue mix from Apple, while camera suppliers like Largan and Sunny Optical see marginal benefits from the lower mix of iPhone Air models [6][5] - **Qualcomm's Position**: Qualcomm's performance is positively impacted by the iPhone 17 models, although long-term reliance on Qualcomm is expected to diminish as Apple moves towards in-house solutions [6][5] Investment Ratings - **Apple (AAPL)**: Rated Outperform with a price target of $290 [8] - **Other Suppliers**: - SanDisk (SNDK): Outperform, price target $120 [9] - Samsung Electronics: Outperform, price target KRW 95,000 [10] - SK Hynix: Outperform, price target KRW 400,000 [11] - Micron: Outperform, price target $170 [12] - TSMC: Outperform, price target NT$ 1,444 [13] Conclusion - The iPhone 17 launch is significantly stronger than previous models, with robust sales and service revenue growth. However, ASP deterioration poses a risk to gross margins, necessitating close monitoring in upcoming earnings reports [4][42]

Goertek (002241 CH) Equity Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Goertek - **Industry**: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - **Market Cap**: CNY 122.69 billion (USD 17.25 billion) [8][18] Key Points Upgrade and Target Price - Goertek's rating has been upgraded from Reduce to Buy, with a new target price set at RMB 43.80, up from RMB 17.40, indicating a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current share price of RMB 35.14 [3][6][43]. Growth Drivers 1. **AI Glasses Market**: - The global AI glasses market is projected to grow significantly, reaching 5.5 million units by 2025, a 260% year-over-year increase, driven by new product launches from Meta and Xiaomi [3][22]. - Goertek is positioned as a key ODM for major brands, contributing to its growth in the smart hardware sector [22]. 2. **AirPods Market Share Recovery**: - Goertek is expected to recover its market share in AirPods production to 30% by 2025, up from below 30% in 2023-24, due to stronger-than-expected sales of AirPods Pro 3 and renewed partnerships with Apple [4][36]. 3. **New Business Opportunities**: - Goertek is exploring potential collaborations with OpenAI, which is entering the hardware market, potentially supplying components for smart speakers and other devices [5][25]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 100.95 billion in 2024 to CNY 135.17 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [9][15]. - Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 2.67 billion in 2024 to CNY 5.49 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.78 to RMB 1.58 over the same period [9][15]. Innovations and Acquisitions - Goertek showcased multiple optical waveguide solutions at the China International Optoelectronic Exposition (CIOE) 2025, enhancing its capabilities in AR/VR devices [23]. - The planned acquisition of Shanghai OminiLight aims to strengthen Goertek's position in micro-nano optical devices, crucial for AR and AI systems [24]. Market Position and Competitiveness - Goertek has established itself as a leading player in the AR/VR ODM market, with a market share of approximately 70% in global AI glasses ODM assembly [36]. - The company is also focusing on improving its gross profit margins through a better product mix, particularly with higher-margin AI glasses [38]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty in AirPod orders, slower-than-expected growth in the AR/VR industry, and challenges in maintaining gross profit margins [49]. Conclusion - Goertek is positioned for significant growth driven by advancements in AI glasses, recovery in AirPods market share, and potential collaborations with emerging tech companies like OpenAI. The upgrade to Buy reflects confidence in the company's strategic direction and financial performance over the next few years [3][43].

Summary of Q Tech (1478.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Q Tech is a leading global supplier of camera modules and fingerprint modules, expanding its market presence from smartphones to various sectors including automobiles and IoT [3][4] Key Industry Insights - The management expressed a positive outlook on the trend of smartphone camera specification upgrades, particularly with the launch of the iPhone 17 series, which features significant upgrades in camera technology [2][4] - The upgrade from 12MP to 48MP cameras in the iPhone 17 Pro series and the increase in front camera resolution from 12MP to 18MP across all models are expected to benefit suppliers in the camera module supply chain, such as Sunny Optical and Largan [2][4] Core Points from the Conference Call 1. **Strong Shipments in August 2025**: - Q Tech reported a 44.3% year-over-year increase in camera module shipments, totaling 47 million units, and an 18.4% month-over-month increase [4][7] - The growth was attributed to market share gains in smartphone camera modules, new smartphone model launches, and strong demand for non-smartphone camera modules [4][7] 2. **Production Site Diversification**: - Q Tech is expanding its production capacity in overseas markets, including a new plant in Vietnam expected to start production in 2026 [8] - The company sold 51% of its India plant's shares to Dixon, a local smartphone ODM, to better capture local market demand [8] 3. **Growth in Non-Smartphone CCM Business**: - Non-smartphone camera module shipments increased by 180.8% year-over-year to 2.6 million units in August 2025, driven by demand for IoT devices [7][9] - Management anticipates continued growth in non-smartphone camera modules, targeting an annual revenue mix of over 25% from this segment [9] Additional Insights - Despite sluggish demand in the smartphone market, management expects ongoing upgrades in smartphone camera specifications to drive revenue growth for high-end camera module suppliers like Q Tech [7][9] - The company holds 728 authorized patents as of the end of 2024, indicating a strong position in innovation and technology [3][4] Conclusion - Q Tech is well-positioned to benefit from both the smartphone and non-smartphone markets, with strong shipment growth and strategic expansions in production capabilities. The ongoing upgrades in camera specifications across smartphones are expected to further enhance the company's revenue potential in the coming years [4][7][9]