Core Viewpoint - Nickel is experiencing a bullish trend after a bearish year, with a 5.5% rally in a month, but its sustainability remains uncertain [1] Market Dynamics - Nickel prices fell significantly, reaching as low as $14,600 per ton last month, leading to major Western producers shutting down operations due to oversupply and battery substitution concerns [1][4] - The demand for stainless steel and electric vehicles (EVs) initially drove nickel production from 800,000 metric tons in 2019 to 2.2 million in 2024, resulting in a structural surplus [3][4] - The International Nickel Study Group projected a surplus of 179,000 tons in 2024, increasing to 198,000 tons in 2025, with LME warehouse inventories exceeding 254,000 tons [4] Demand Trends - Demand for nickel-rich battery chemistries is growing slowly, with nickel-free LFP batteries increasing by 7% year-on-year compared to just 1% for nickel-bearing batteries by late 2024 [5] - Policy changes, such as the repeal of the US$7,500 EV tax credit, have negatively impacted EV sales and sentiment [5] Supply Chain Risks - Indonesia dominates nickel production, accounting for over half of global output in 2025, but this concentration poses systemic risks due to environmental concerns and reliance on coal power [6][7] - Australia's nickel production has significantly declined from over 150,000 tons to about 60,000 tons due to high operational costs compared to Indonesia [8] Future Outlook - Nickel's demand outlook remains in the mid-single digits, with expectations of doubling battery demand by 2030 despite the LFP trend [10] - A potential shift from surplus to deficit in the late 2020s is anticipated, driven by the continued reliance on nickel-rich chemistries for high-performance EVs [11] - The market faces risks from Indonesia's continued output growth and the rapid adoption of alternative battery technologies [12] Investment Perspective - Nickel is viewed as a deep-value contrarian commodity, with potential for rebalancing despite current oversupply and dependence on a politically complex supplier [13]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged to record highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand, particularly from the US and China, indicating a potential for continued price increases in the near future. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper trading on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $12,282 per tonne, while prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 100,000 yuan or $14,270 per tonne, marking a significant premium over US markets [1] - The most active copper contract for March delivery on the Comex in New York rose over 5% to an intraday high of $5.90345 per pound, equivalent to just over $13,000 per tonne, the highest level since July [2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - Significant supply disruptions have been noted, including a deadly accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading Freeport McMoRan to declare force majeure and reduce its output guidance for 2026 [3] - Other incidents, such as an underground flood at Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula mine and a fatal rock blast at Codelco's El Teniente mine, have also impacted global copper production [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - BMO Capital Markets forecasts an average copper price of $12,500 per tonne by Q2 2026, anticipating that mine supply will eventually catch up [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will be constrained to $10,000 - $11,000 per tonne in 2026 due to a projected surplus, despite current supply challenges [16] - In contrast, Bank of America has raised its price forecasts to $11,313 per tonne for 2026 and $13,501 per tonne for 2027, citing mine disruptions and strong demand [20] Group 4: Market Dynamics - A Chinese trader has made significant investments in copper, holding a net long position of approximately 90 kilotonnes, reflecting confidence in the market despite volatility [22] - BloombergNEF anticipates a structural deficit in copper starting from 2026, driven by electrification demand outpacing supply, with a potential shortfall of 19 million tonnes by 2050 without new mines [25]

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Copper prices have reached record highs, surpassing $14,000 per ton in China and $5.7 per ton in Comex futures [1] - The bull run began after tariffs on imported copper were announced by Donald Trump, although most metals were later excluded from these tariffs [2] - Supply and demand dynamics are driving the price increase, with a projected supply deficit as demand rises, particularly from electric vehicles and data centers [3] Group 2: Metal Supercycle - The ongoing surge in copper prices is part of a broader metal supercycle, with other metals like silver, gold, platinum, and palladium also experiencing significant price increases [4] Group 3: Recommended Copper Stocks - Freeport-McMoRan is highlighted as a top copper stock, with a market capitalization exceeding $75 billion and operations in the U.S., Peru, and Indonesia [6] - Freeport-McMoRan's revenue has increased from $14.6 billion in 2015 to over $26 billion in the trailing twelve months, with profits exceeding $2 billion [7] - Southern Copper is another recommended stock, producing over 1 million metric tons of copper, with revenue rising from $17.48 billion in 2015 to $26.9 billion in the trailing twelve months [8] - Southern Copper's stock price has seen a decline of approximately 13% due to equity raising plans and earnings shortfalls, but a rebound is anticipated [9] - BHP Group, the largest mining company globally, produces over 1.86 million metric tons of copper and has seen its stock price increase by 23% over the past year [10] - Other notable copper stocks include Anglo American, Antofagasta, Hudbay Minerals, and Rio Tinto [11]

Group 1 - Australian investors showed a preference for ASX 20 blue-chip stocks and popular forum favorites during CY25 despite market uncertainty [1][2] - Notable stocks attracting investor interest included BHP and CBA, referred to as the "Mag Two," which were among the most traded in December [3] - DroneShield gained significant attention due to its technology related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, contributing to its popularity [4] Group 2 - Other notable stocks included Fortescue, PLS Group, and Woodside Energy, which continued to be favored in the materials and energy sectors alongside BHP Group [4] - Liontown and Rio Tinto were mentioned as close contenders but did not make the list of most traded stocks [5] - Only NAB was absent from the Big 4 banks in terms of trading activity [5]

All right, joining us now to talk technicals ahead of a shortened uh trading week, Chris Lone, partner and chief market strategist at Strategus uh research partners. How's Trener. >> He's doing much better.>> He is. >> Yeah, really. So, >> give him our best.>> I certainly will. >> Christmas. Um >> interesting stuff.Yeah. That that you're talking about here. We you you say that the rotational tape has been persisting which makes you think 2026 this could be a a sign of it continuing which would be >> really ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly in 2025, driven by supply disruptions and tariff fears, leading to a tight but fragile market heading into 2026 [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Year-long disruptions at major mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and El Teniente have contributed to supply strains, with some mines not expected to recover output levels until 2027 or later [6][8]. - Analysts estimate that around 730,000 to 830,000 tonnes of copper were diverted into US warehouses in October 2025, tightening global supply and driving premiums higher [3][4]. - The term "economically trapped" describes copper that remains in the US due to current market conditions, indicating a lack of incentive to remove it from storage [4]. Demand Trends - Demand growth is strong on paper, particularly due to expectations surrounding electric vehicles and broader electrification, but actual near-term consumption has lagged, especially in China [9]. - High premiums have led some buyers to seek cheaper alternatives, although the market remains tight rather than broken [9]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The copper market is experiencing volatility driven by macroeconomic factors, including trade policies and stimulus expectations, with potential new tariffs from the Trump administration adding uncertainty [10][20]. - Analysts warn that sudden policy shifts could lead to sharp price swings, affecting not only copper but the broader market [22]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that copper demand could triple by 2045 due to the energy transition, with a structural deficit potentially emerging as early as 2026 [12][16]. - Without significant investment in new projects and recycling, the deficit could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050 [12]. - The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with key variables including trade flows into the US, recovery at major mines, and the global economic outlook [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Kingsrose Mining faces a setback at its Penikat Project in Finland due to the Northern Finland Administrative Court overturning the exploration permit, which halts the winter drilling program [1][2][3] Permit Issues - The court's decision, announced on December 22, 2025, was based on a procedural error in the original permitting process identified by Tukes, the Finnish Mining Authority [2] - The matter has been returned to Tukes for reconsideration, preventing the planned winter drilling program from proceeding as scheduled [3] Company Response - Kingsrose is proactively addressing the situation by planning to apply for a Derogation Permit and submit a revised exploration permit application [4] - The company expects to provide an update on the permitting progress by April 2026 [4] Environmental Considerations - Kingsrose noted that previous Natura assessments and environmental studies were thorough, and the permit documents included an adequate environmental impact assessment [5] - However, Tukes failed to clearly define 'no-go' areas and did not provide sufficient detail regarding company requirements or financial guarantees [5] Project Potential - Despite the permitting setback, Kingsrose remains optimistic about the Penikat project's potential as a high-grade PGE-Ni-Cu project, with surface-outcropping reefs along a 9–11 km strike [6] - The company believes that insights gained from Area 1 will aid in the permitting efforts for Areas 2 to 5 [6] Strategic Alliances - Kingsrose has a history of forming strategic alliances to advance exploration projects, including a recent exploration alliance with BHP Group to collaborate in Norway and Finland [7] Investment Thesis - The company faces a short-term hurdle with the permitting delay at Penikat, but its proactive approach and the project's high-grade potential present a compelling investment thesis [8] - Success will depend on securing the necessary Derogation and revised permits to unlock the value of the PGE-Ni-Cu project [8]

Industry Overview - Copper prices are experiencing renewed momentum, with expectations for stronger prices heading into 2026 due to tightening global supply and solid demand, particularly from China and the U.S. [1][4] - Copper consumption is projected to accelerate significantly, driven by traditional industrial demand, energy transition trends, and the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure [2][9]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has included copper in its 2025 List of Critical Minerals, highlighting its strategic importance for U.S. energy independence and national security, which may lead to policy support and faster permitting [5]. Price Trends - Copper prices have fluctuated between $4.01 per pound in January and an all-time high of $5.96 per pound in July, currently trading around $5.47 per pound, with a year-to-date average of approximately $4.84 per pound [3]. - Prices have increased by roughly 35.8% this year, marking the highest gain since 2009, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [5][10]. Demand Drivers - Demand for copper has increased nearly fourfold over the last five decades, supported by sectors such as electrical and electronic products, building construction, and transportation equipment [8]. - The energy transition is a significant driver, with electric vehicles requiring more copper than traditional vehicles, and renewable energy systems heavily relying on copper supply [9][10]. Supply Constraints - Concerns over declining ore grades and lengthy timelines to bring new mines online are contributing to fears of a looming supply deficit, which supports higher copper prices [2][11]. - Supply fears are exacerbated by potential disruptions at major mining operations, including Quebrada Blanca, Grasberg, and Constancia [4]. Company Highlights BHP Group - BHP has reduced long-term debt and improved operational efficiency, with copper now contributing 39% of its EBITDA [13]. - The company has a robust pipeline that could deliver around 2 million tons per annum of copper production by the 2030s, with significant projects in Chile and the U.S. [14][15]. Southern Copper - Southern Copper has the largest copper reserves in the industry and is investing over $15 billion in capital projects, primarily in Peru [16]. - Key projects include Tía María, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay, which are expected to significantly boost copper production [18][19]. Teck Resources - Teck Resources is merging with Anglo American to form the Anglo Teck group, which will have over 70% exposure to copper and is projected to be among the top five global copper producers [20]. - The merger is expected to yield $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies and generate additional EBITDA synergies from 2030 to 2049 [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - BHP has appointed Callum Doherty as a partner to lead its international and large corporate tax services, enhancing its capabilities in supporting clients with complex tax issues and international expansion [1][2][5]. Group 1: Appointment and Role - Callum Doherty will lead the development of BHP's international tax service offering and support clients looking to expand overseas [1][2]. - His previous experience includes roles at EY, PwC, and BlackRock, and he was most recently a tax director at CFGI's UK division [2]. Group 2: Company Growth and Services - BHP aims to complement its UK advisory capabilities with international tax services, catering to organizations of all sizes, from SMEs to multinational corporations [4]. - The appointment of Doherty is seen as a significant milestone for BHP, enhancing the firm's expertise in navigating complex tax legislation [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The joint venture between Trilogy Metals and South32 is focusing on advancing the Ambler mining district in Alaska, with significant developments planned for 2026, including a $35 million work program to enhance the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects. Group 1: Project Development - Trilogy Metals announced a $35 million work program for 2026 aimed at advancing the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects, which include the Arctic and Bornite copper-rich deposits within a 1,900 sq.-km land package [2] - Exploration activities in 2026 will focus on the Arctic deposit, including geotechnical drilling to support mine design and infrastructure planning, while the Bornite project camp will be prepared for multi-year use [3] - The mine permitting process for the Arctic project is set to begin in 2026, leveraging federal expedited programs like FAST-41 [4] Group 2: Management and Community Engagement - Ambler plans to establish an independent management team in 2026 to oversee the next stages of the UKMP, focusing on permitting, technical programs, and community engagement [5] Group 3: Financial and Government Support - Trilogy has budgeted approximately $5 million for compliance and oversight of its investment in Ambler, and received $35.6 million from the US government to support UKMP development [7] - The US government has reinstated the critical access road permits in the Ambler mining district, which were previously revoked [8] Group 4: Resource and Economic Potential - The Arctic deposit is one of the highest-grade copper deposits globally, with 35.7 million indicated tonnes averaging over 5% copper equivalent, containing an estimated 2.34 billion lb. of copper [9] - A 2023 feasibility study for the Arctic deposit projected a 13-year mine life with annual payable copper production of 149 million lb., and an after-tax net present value of $1.1 billion [10] - The Bornite deposit is projected to have a 17-year mine life with total copper production of 1.9 billion lb., and an after-tax NPV of $393.9 million [11]