Core Insights - Duolingo announced significant product updates at Duocon 2025, including integration of Duolingo Score with LinkedIn and expansion of the Duolingo Chess course [1][2] - The integration allows users to showcase their language skills on LinkedIn, enhancing the connection between language proficiency and professional opportunities [2] - The Duolingo Chess course has gained popularity since its iOS launch in June 2025, now expanding to Android with new features like player-versus-player mode [3][8] Product Updates - The Duolingo Score can now be linked to LinkedIn profiles, providing a real-time reflection of language skills [2] - Duolingo Chess is now available on Android, featuring live coaching and a new PvP mode for competitive learning [3][8] - The company emphasizes the use of AI and experimentation to enhance learning experiences, including improvements to its AI-powered Video Call feature [4][5] Learning Experience Enhancements - The AI-driven Video Call feature is now available for nine popular courses, offering real-time feedback and personalized interactions [5] - Duolingo employs rigorous A/B testing to refine its product offerings, ensuring data-informed decisions that enhance user engagement and learning outcomes [6] Company Overview - Duolingo is the leading mobile learning platform, offering a wide range of courses in languages, math, music, and chess, with over 250 language courses available [7] - The company's mission is to provide the best education globally and make it universally accessible [7]

Duolingo is facing risks from multiple angles as investors reassess the impact of AI on the mobile foreign language learning platform https://t.co/AfybnKvqpJ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Internet Sector in North America - **Key Companies**: GOOGL, META, AMZN, DASH, CHWY, DUOL, U, RBLX - **Overall View**: The internet sector is viewed as attractive with a focus on GenAI catalysts and evolving debates impacting major players [1][2][3] Core Points and Arguments GenAI Catalysts - **Catalysts Identified**: Model advances, agentic offerings, capital expenditures (capex), and custom silicon are expected to drive performance for GOOGL, META, and AMZN [1] - **Capex Projections**: Total data center capex is expected to reach approximately $505 billion in 2026, up 24% from the previous year, and $586 billion in 2027 [5][6] Company Preferences - **Mega Caps Preference**: The order of preference for the next 12 months is AMZN, META, and GOOGL [2] - **Smids Preference**: Positive outlook on DASH, CHWY, DUOL, U, and RBLX [2] GOOGL Insights - **Search Revenue Growth**: Anticipated search revenue growth of approximately 12% in 2025 and 9% in 2026, driven by AI innovations [16] - **GCP Growth**: Google Cloud Platform (GCP) is expected to grow by 31% in 2026, with potential upside from TPUs and custom silicon [16] META Insights - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth of 23% in Q4 2025 and 18% in 2026, driven by core GPU-enabled improvements [25] - **Llama Model Launch**: Anticipated launch of the next Llama model in early 2026, which is crucial for META's competitive positioning [25] AMZN Insights - **AWS Growth**: AWS is projected to achieve over 20% growth in 2026, supported by increased data center square footage [37] - **Retail Margins**: North America retail margins are expected to improve, with potential EPS growth of $8-$9 in 2026/2027 [33][38] Shared Economy Insights - **Rideshare Growth**: UBER and LYFT are expected to grow US trips by 15% and 12% respectively in 2026, with UBER's scale providing a competitive advantage [43] - **Food Delivery**: DASH is projected to add over $300 million in annual adjusted EBITDA in 2026, driven by synergies from the ROO acquisition [46] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - **Room Night Growth**: Stable growth of 7% in room nights is expected for ABNB, BKNG, and EXPE in 2026, influenced by macro leisure travel demand [49] - **Agentic AI Risks**: The rise of agentic AI poses both risks and opportunities for OTAs, particularly in retaining market share at the top of the travel funnel [49] Additional Important Insights - **Capex as % of FCF**: GOOGL, META, and AMZN are expected to have capex as a percentage of free cash flow (FCF) reaching 57%, 73%, and 78% respectively in 2026 [12] - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: Surveys indicate that a significant portion of ChatGPT and Gemini users engage in commercial behavior, highlighting the competitive landscape for GOOGL and META [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the internet sector and its major players.

Core Insights - Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) has experienced a significant decline of 35% over the past three months, contrasting sharply with a 26% increase in the broader industry and an 11% rise in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [1][2] - Competitors Coursera (COUR) and Chegg (CHGG) have seen positive performance, with Coursera up 31% and Chegg up 18.5% in the same period, indicating a shift in investor sentiment within the online learning sector [2] - Duolingo's stock price closed at $309.3, which is 43% below its 52-week high of $251.3, raising questions about its potential for recovery or further decline [3] AI and Product Development - Duolingo is leveraging artificial intelligence and proprietary learner data to create a competitive advantage, embedding AI into its product roadmap and financials [3] - The company launched 148 new language courses in April, marking its largest expansion ever, enabled by AI efficiencies that allowed for rapid content development [6] - AI-related cost reductions have led to a sequential gross margin increase of 130 basis points to 72.4%, demonstrating that innovation is enhancing profitability [6] Revenue Diversification and Growth - Duolingo is diversifying its revenue streams beyond language learning subscriptions, successfully increasing subscription ARPU by 6% year-over-year through a mix-shift strategy [7] - The launch of new subjects like chess and music has shown early traction, expanding the addressable market and improving user retention [8] - Management projects FY 2025 revenues between $1.011 billion and $1.019 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins approaching 29% [9] Financial Performance and Outlook - Duolingo's return on equity (ROE) stands at 13.3%, significantly above the industry average of 6.7%, indicating effective investment in profitable areas [10] - The company's current ratio is 2.81, well above the industry's 1.78, suggesting strong liquidity and the ability to meet short-term obligations [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Duolingo's 2025 earnings is $3.12, reflecting a 66% year-over-year increase, with sales expected to grow 36% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [12][14] Analyst Confidence and Investment Potential - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates indicate strong analyst confidence, with a 7.6% increase in the 2025 earnings estimate over the past 60 days [17] - Duolingo's innovative approach and market expansion strategies present a compelling buy opportunity, with strong liquidity and sustained growth prospects [18] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting positive market sentiment [19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment perspective of a German Buy-Hold-Check investor with a background in engineering and management, emphasizing the ability to understand and interpret both economic and technological aspects of companies [1]. Group 1 - The investor possesses a master's degree in engineering and management, which aids in quantifying and interpreting company economics and technology [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the qualifications of a German Buy-Hold-Check investor, highlighting a master's degree in engineering and management, which enables the understanding and interpretation of both economics and technology within companies [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure indicating that the analyst does not hold any stock or similar positions in the mentioned companies but may initiate a short position in DUOL within the next 72 hours [2] - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment recommendations are provided [3]

Company Overview - Figma is a collaborative tool for interface design, functioning as an AI-powered ecosystem that aids teams in transforming ideas into finished products [4] - The company has attracted notable clients such as Zoom Video Communications, Duolingo, and Atlassian, which has generated significant interest from industry analysts and investors [5] - Figma's market cap stands at $27 billion, surpassing Adobe's proposed acquisition price of $20 billion [7] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Figma reported revenue of $478 million, reflecting a 43% increase compared to the same period the previous year [8] - The net dollar retention rate in Q2 was 129%, indicating that existing customers are increasing their spending on the platform [8] - Figma achieved a profit of $22 million in the first half of the year, contrasting with a loss of $814 million in the first two quarters of 2024 due to high operating expenses [9] Market Position and Competition - Figma is recognized as the No. 1 company in its industry, although it faces competition from companies like Adobe, which have greater resources to invest in AI and other technologies [6] - The company has maintained a rapid but slowing revenue growth rate, raising concerns about its valuation despite the recent stock pullback [10]

Market Overview - The second quarter saw significant volatility for small and mid-cap (SMID) stocks, with the Russell 2500 Index returning 8.6%, while the Russell 2000 Index matched this but lagged behind the Russell 1000 Index's return of 11.1% [2] - The Russell 2500 Growth Index outperformed the Value Index, returning 11.3%, indicating a preference for growth stocks during this period [2] Economic and Market Sentiment - Recent months have been characterized by reversals in trade policy and legislative priorities, with the market adapting to trade threats and pricing in more favorable outcomes [3] - Macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, and spending trends remain stable, suggesting manageable operating conditions for businesses and consumers [4] Sector Performance - The ClearBridge SMID Growth Strategy outperformed its benchmark due to strong contributions from the health care and consumer staples sectors [5] - In health care, companies like Insmed saw stock price increases due to positive clinical results and improved earnings estimates [5] - Insulet, a medical device company, also performed well, driven by strong earnings and product launches [6] - Consumer staples companies like e.l.f. Beauty and Casey's General Stores benefited from strategic acquisitions and reinvestments, respectively [7] Detractors and Challenges - The information technology sector was a significant detractor, with companies like Wix.com and Globant facing challenges due to uneven demand [8] - The exit from Ashland was due to persistent headwinds and management turnover, impacting long-term confidence [11] Portfolio Positioning and Transactions - New positions were initiated in Ryan Specialty Holdings and Duolingo, both showing strong growth potential in their respective markets [9][10] - The portfolio also saw exits from several positions, including Ashland and Tradeweb Markets, reflecting a strategic shift in response to market conditions [11][19] Outlook - Despite recent market performance, there remains uncertainty regarding macroeconomic policies and geopolitical factors, with a focus on companies with unique growth drivers [12] - The potential for faster earnings growth in SMID stocks is highlighted, suggesting a favorable outlook for this segment [12]

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo (NASDAQ: DUOL) has experienced significant challenges in the stock market over the past few months, despite being a well-known company even among those who do not use its products [1]. Company Summary - Duolingo is recognized for its language learning platform, which has garnered a broad audience [1]. - The company is currently facing a downturn in its stock performance, indicating potential underlying issues or market sentiment affecting its valuation [1]. Industry Context - The broader context of the language learning and educational technology industry may influence Duolingo's performance, as competition and market trends evolve [1].

Core Insights - Duolingo reported a 41% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $252.3 million [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by approximately four percentage points to 31.2% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth of 41% year-over-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 31.2% from the previous period [1]