Research +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com 高盛(新加坡) 私人公司 干丰丰. CFA 2025年2月23日 | 8:19PM HKT 中国市场寻思: 计划A股投资正当时 DeepSeek-R1的推出点燃了投资者对于中国经济增长和股市表现的乐观情绪。MSCI中 国指数自1月份触底以来已上涨26%，离岸互联网板块领涨（恒生科技指数上涨 31%），而A股涨幅为相对温和的7%。过去三个月，A股和港股的回报差距扩大至 15%,处于历史区间的第99百分位,是2018年以来第二大回报差距,仅低于2022年 11月至2023年2月重新放开反弹初期的MSCI中国指数跑赢沪深300指数30%的表现。 我们的A-H市场轮动模型显示，未来三个月市场的领先地位可能发生轮动，并预测A股 将跑赢2%。经验表明，当A股和港股的回报差距超过15%时，市场主导地位逆转的后 验概率为95%。我们在模型中考虑了六个关键宏观和市场因素（经济增长、宏观政 策、监管/地缘政治、公司基本面、估值以及流动性/市场情绪），预计估值未处高位 以及潜在的宏观刺激政策将是推动A股迎头赶上的关键因素。当前MSCI中国指数和 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of banks into the venture capital market is a practical choice that aligns with innovative financial logic, allowing banks to engage in bank-affiliated venture capital (BVC), acquisition loans, and private credit, which enhances the efficiency of credit support during capacity expansion phases [1][3][4] - BVC typically operates through bank-controlled affiliated institutions, differing significantly in behavior and preferences from independent venture capital (IVC), corporate venture capital (CVC), and government-backed venture capital (GVC) [1][4][19] - The balance between innovation benefits and systemic financial risks is crucial, suggesting that banks should control the scale of their involvement in venture capital to avoid excessive expansion that could lead to financial instability [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: BVC and Acquisition Loans - BVC and acquisition loans can enhance the efficiency of venture capital exits and improve the overall innovation financing mechanism within capital markets [1][4][39] - The report emphasizes that banks' participation in the venture capital market can facilitate smoother transitions from capital market-led financing to bank financing, particularly during the initial success of industrial innovation [1][4][39] Section 2: Characteristics of BVC - BVC is characterized by a preference for later-stage investments, shorter holding periods, and lower equity stakes compared to IVC, reflecting banks' risk-averse nature [4][25][37] - The investment behavior of BVC is influenced by the need to establish beneficial relationships with portfolio companies to support core banking activities, such as lending [4][33][37] Section 3: Role of Acquisition Loans - Acquisition loans, particularly leveraged buyouts (LBOs), play a significant role in enhancing the production efficiency of acquired companies and improving innovation outputs, such as patent citations [39][43][44] - The report highlights that banks can benefit from participating in LBO transactions by establishing business relationships with private equity firms, which can lead to future lending opportunities [39][46]

Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs reported net revenues of $12.73 billion for Q2 2024, a 17% increase year-on-year, but a 10% decrease from Q1 2024[9]. - Net earnings for Q2 2024 were $3.04 billion, with diluted EPS at $8.62, compared to $3.08 in Q2 2023 and $11.58 in Q1 2024[5]. - Total net revenues for the second quarter of 2024 reached $12,731 million, a 17% increase from $10,895 million in the previous quarter[31]. - Net earnings applicable to common shareholders for Q2 2024 were $2,891 million, reflecting a 64% increase from $1,071 million in Q2 2023[39]. - For the first half of 2024, total net revenues reached $26,944 million, a 17% increase from $23,119 million in the same period last year[34]. - Basic earnings per share for Q2 2024 were $8.73, a 183% increase from $3.09 in Q2 2023[37]. Revenue Breakdown - Global Banking & Markets generated net revenues of $8.18 billion in Q2 2024, a 14% increase from Q2 2023, driven by strong performance in equities and investment banking fees of $1.73 billion, up 21% year-on-year[10][8]. - Asset & Wealth Management achieved net revenues of $3.88 billion in Q2 2024, a 27% increase from Q2 2023, with record management fees contributing significantly[14][8]. - Investment banking fees amounted to $1,733 million, down 17% from $2,080 million year-over-year[31]. - Investment banking revenues for the first half of 2024 were $3,818 million, a 27% increase compared to $3,010 million in the same period last year[39]. - Equity underwriting revenues increased by 34% to $793 million compared to $593 million in the previous year[34]. Expenses and Efficiency - Operating expenses remained stable at $8.53 billion for Q2 2024, with an efficiency ratio of 63.8% for the first half of 2024, down from 73.3% in the same period last year[20][21]. - Total operating expenses for Q2 2024 were $8,533 million, slightly down from $8,544 million in Q2 2023[37]. Shareholder Returns - The firm returned $4.43 billion to shareholders in Q2 2024, including $3.50 billion in share repurchases[24]. - The quarterly dividend was increased by 9% to $3.00 per common share, effective Q3 2024[24]. Credit Losses and Tax - Provision for credit losses decreased to $282 million in Q2 2024, down from $615 million in Q2 2023[19]. - The effective income tax rate for the first half of 2024 was 21.6%, up from 21.1% in Q1 2024[23]. Assets and Capital - Common equity tier 1 capital ratio improved to 14.8% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 14.6% as of March 31, 2024[42]. - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were $1,653 billion, a decrease from $1,698 billion as of March 31, 2024[41]. - The company's tangible common shareholders' equity was reported at $99,575 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024[48]. Assets Under Supervision - Assets under supervision rose by $86 billion to a record $2.93 trillion during the quarter[8]. - Total assets under supervision (AUS) increased to $2,934 million as of June 30, 2024, up from $2,714 million as of March 31, 2024, representing a growth of 8.1%[45]. - Long-term AUS net inflows were $31 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $8 million for the previous quarter, indicating a significant increase[45]. - Liquidity products saw net inflows of $40 million for the quarter, a substantial rise from $4 million in the previous quarter[45]. - The ending balance of total AUS was $2,934 million, reflecting a net market appreciation of $15 million during the quarter[45]. - Equity assets rose to $735 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to $627 million as of March 31, 2024, marking a 17.3% increase[45]. - Fixed income assets increased to $1,147 million as of June 30, 2024, up from $1,056 million as of March 31, 2024, showing an 8.6% growth[45]. Risk Management - Average Daily Value at Risk (VaR) for interest rates was $81 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024, down from $86 million in the previous quarter[43].