Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility and is currently facing a downturn, marking the first negative year since 2023, which raises concerns for investors [1] Industry Insights - Bitcoin has been in existence for 15 years and has undergone 15 major drawdowns, but it has consistently rebounded to new all-time highs, indicating a normal cycle for an emerging asset class [3] - The involvement of Wall Street has contributed to reduced volatility in Bitcoin, which has seen its volatility decrease from 80% to around 50% over the years [5] - Bitcoin is currently about 1.5 times as volatile as the S&P index but also performs 1.5 times better, suggesting a maturing asset class [6] Company Performance - The company has achieved a 70% annual growth rate over the past five years, while Bitcoin has grown at 50% annually during the same period [9] - The company is well-capitalized with over $50 billion in equity and is considered a financial powerhouse within the crypto economy [10] - The company raises capital through selling digital credit or equity to invest in Bitcoin, which is expected to appreciate at 30% annually over the next 20 years [11] - The company offers credit instruments with a 10% dividend yield, which is tax-deferred, creating a strong business model as long as Bitcoin appreciates by at least 1.25% annually [12] - The company's structure is designed to withstand an 80-90% drawdown in Bitcoin prices, maintaining operational stability [13]

Core Insights - Intel Corporation (INTC) is experiencing growth in its Client Computing Group, with Q3 revenue reaching $8.53 billion, an increase from $8.16 billion year-over-year, surpassing estimates of $8.19 billion [1][8] Group 1: Revenue and Market Trends - The 8% revenue increase is attributed to a recovering PC market as enterprises upgrade to Windows 11 and the rising adoption of AI PCs [2][8] - Arizona State University has chosen to implement an Intel-powered AI PC fleet to enhance operations and improve athletic performance, indicating growing institutional demand [2] Group 2: Strategic Collaborations - Intel has expanded its partnership with Microsoft by integrating Intel vPro manageability with Microsoft Intune, enabling secure remote management of cloud-connected PC fleets [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Intel faces competition from AMD, which reported a 73% year-over-year revenue increase to $4 billion, driven by demand for Ryzen processors and gaming GPUs [5] - Qualcomm's ARM-based AI PCs and Snapdragon processors are gaining market traction, with Qualcomm's quarterly revenues reaching $8.99 billion, up from $8.07 billion a year ago [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Intel's stock has increased by 55.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 30.7% [7] - The company's shares are currently trading at a price/book ratio of 1.38, below the industry average of 31.73 [9] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Intel for 2025 have seen an increase, while estimates for 2026 have declined over the past 60 days [11]

Core Viewpoint - Wei-Jen Lo's previous employer alleges that he breached noncompete and confidentiality agreements upon leaving the company [1] Group 1 - The previous employer claims that Wei-Jen Lo violated specific agreements designed to protect company interests [1] - The allegations suggest potential legal repercussions for Wei-Jen Lo due to the breach of contract [1] - This situation highlights the importance of noncompete and confidentiality agreements in the industry [1]

Intel on Thursday denied allegations by Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC that one of the U.S. firm's executives, Wei-Jen Lo, had leaked trade secrets. ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is experiencing stock volatility due to a trade secrets lawsuit against a former executive, which raises concerns about competitive threats from Intel, despite TSMC's strong position in advanced chip manufacturing [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - TSMC is expanding its 2-nanometer facilities from seven to ten sites in response to increased demand for AI chips [1]. - The lawsuit against former senior vice president Wei-Jen Lo alleges that he leaked confidential information to Intel, which could impact TSMC's competitive edge [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the lawsuit, market options data indicates that investors are generally bullish on TSMC stock, suggesting potential contrarian opportunities for traders [5]. - TSMC's stock experienced a dip, which may present a buying opportunity for data-driven investors [5][6]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - A quantitative analysis using the Kolmogorov-Markov framework predicts TSM stock's forward 10-week median returns to range between $272 and $312, with a clustering effect around $289 [11][14]. - Under specific market conditions, the expected forward returns could expand between $256 and $342, indicating a more favorable reward-to-risk ratio [13]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - A suggested trading strategy involves a bull call spread with a $290/$300 strike, which could yield a maximum profit of $580, representing over 138% return if TSM stock rises above $300 at expiration [19][20][21].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has filed a lawsuit against former senior vice president Wei-Jen Lo for allegedly leaking confidential information to Intel, raising concerns about trade secrets and intellectual property rights in the semiconductor industry [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - TSMC's lawsuit is based on Lo's employment contract, non-compete agreement, and regulations such as the Trade Secrets Act [1]. - The lawsuit claims there is a high probability that Lo has used or disclosed TSMC's trade secrets to Intel [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the news of the lawsuit, TSMC's share price fell over 3% [2]. - Intel's stock price also experienced a decline of 1.5% in mid-morning trade [3]. Group 3: Company Responses - Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated that the company respects intellectual property rights and denied any wrongdoing related to the allegations [3]. - An investigation into the allegations has been opened by Taiwan's High Prosecutors [2].

The Trump administration is trading billions of dollars of taxpayer money for ownership stakes in companies. The unusual practice shows no sign of slowing. ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on TSMC as the leading Cloud/Edge AI foundry [4] - ASE is also rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC is upgraded to a Buy with a new price target of NT$1,800, implying a 35% upside [4][22] Core Insights - TSMC's N3 capacity is forecasted to reach 170kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 120kwpm at the end of 2025 [1] - Cloud AI is expected to account for 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with smartphones and PCs making up 60-65% [1] - CoWoS capacity is anticipated to be tight in 2026, with TSMC likely to accelerate capacity expansion [2] - Demand forecasts for CoWoS have been raised significantly for Nvidia (13% increase), AMD (56% increase), and Broadcom [3] Summary by Sections N3 Foundry Supply-Demand Analysis - TSMC's N3 capacity is projected to increase to 170kwpm by end-2026 from 120kwpm at end-2025 [1] - Cloud AI products are expected to represent 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with other devices accounting for 60-65% [1] - N3 utilization is expected to be tight, particularly in Q4 2026 [1] CoWoS Capacity and Demand - CoWoS capacity is forecasted to reach 110kwpm by Q3 2026, with potential upside in late 2026 [2] - Demand for CoWoS from Nvidia is expected to reach 3 million units in 2026, with AMD's demand forecast raised by 56% [3] - Broadcom's CoWoS demand is projected to increase to 260-280k units in 2026, up from 90-100k in 2025 [3] Stock Recommendations - TSMC's capex for 2026/27 is raised to US$50bn/52bn from US$46bn/50bn, with a price target increase to NT$1,800 [4] - ASE is highlighted as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC's long-term earnings CAGR is forecasted at 20% over 2027-29, with a significant market share in advanced packaging [22]

Core Viewpoint - US tech giants, including Apple, Amazon, Cisco, Meta, HP, and Intel, oppose the allocation of the 6 GHz band for mobile services, advocating instead for its use for Wi-Fi services [1][2]. Group 1: Spectrum Allocation and Auction - The US technology companies argue that the technical and commercial readiness for mobile services in the 6 GHz band is not established [2]. - The government has indicated that 400 MHz of frequencies in the 6 GHz band are available for auction, with 300 MHz expected to be available by 2030 and 500 MHz to be delicensed for low power applications, primarily Wi-Fi [5][6]. - Reliance Jio has requested that the entire 1200 MHz spectrum in the 6 GHz band be included in the upcoming auction, despite the government's decision to delicence 500 MHz for low power applications [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Responses and Concerns - Airtel has also requested a deferment of the 6 GHz band auction due to ecosystem readiness challenges, including device availability and network equipment [7]. - Qualcomm supports the deferment, emphasizing the importance of aligning with global standards and safeguarding India's 6G future [8]. - The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) opposes the delicensing of the 6 GHz band, arguing that it undermines quality of service and scalability for digital applications [9][10]. Group 3: Implications of Delicensing - COAI warns that delicensing any part of the 6 GHz band could permanently limit its use for licensed mobile broadband services, affecting India's long-term digital capacity [10]. - Concerns are raised that unlicensed Wi-Fi deployments by global OTT players could disadvantage local telecom operators and reduce government revenues [11].

Core Viewpoint - US technology companies, including Amazon and Qualcomm, oppose the allocation of the upper 6GHz band for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) services, advocating instead for the entire 6GHz band to be designated for Wi-Fi services due to concerns over technical and commercial readiness [1][8][10] Group 1: Spectrum Allocation and Auction - The Indian government has stated that 400MHz of airwaves in the 6GHz band are available for auction, with an additional 300MHz expected by 2030, and 500MHz to be delicensed for low-power applications like Wi-Fi [2][10] - Reliance Jio is pushing for the entire 1200MHz spectrum in the 6GHz band to be included in the upcoming auction, despite the government's decision to delicence part of the band for low-power applications [2][10] - Airtel and Qualcomm have called for the deferment of the auction for the 6425-6725 MHz and 7025-7125 MHz bands, citing the need for ecosystem readiness and alignment with global standards [4][10] Group 2: Industry Associations' Stance - The Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) opposes the delicensing of the 6GHz band, arguing that licensed IMT spectrum is essential for quality service and scalability for future applications like 6G [5][6][10] - COAI warns that delicensing any part of the 6GHz band could permanently limit India's digital capacity and affordable service provision [6][10] - The Manufacturers Association of Information Technology (MAIT) supports the idea of allowing unlicensed access in the lower 6GHz band and suggests extending this to parts of the upper 6GHz for future Wi-Fi generations [7][10]