Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) shares reached a 52-week high of $233.82, closing at $233.60, with an 18.2% year-to-date (YTD) increase, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 5.6% rise [1][10] - TSMC has outperformed peers such as NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, and Intel, which saw YTD increases of 17%, 14.6%, and 9.1%, respectively [2][10] - Investor confidence in TSMC's long-term prospects is growing, supported by strong fundamentals and a favorable long-term outlook [3] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, TSMC reported a 35% year-over-year revenue increase to $25.53 billion and a 53% rise in net income to nearly $11 billion [8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) jumped 53.6% to $2.12, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03, with an average surprise of 6.9% over the last four quarters [9] AI-Driven Growth - AI-related revenues for TSMC tripled in 2024, contributing a mid-teen percentage to total revenues, with expectations to double again in 2025 and a projected 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [7][10] - TSMC is positioned as a key player in the AI revolution, supplying advanced chips to major companies like NVIDIA and AMD [6] Investment and Valuation - TSMC plans to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, significantly higher than the $29.8 billion investment in 2024, with 70% of this focused on advanced manufacturing processes [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts revenue growth of 29.8% and 17.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with EPS expected to rise by 31.8% and 15.8% [12] - TSMC's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 23.32X, lower than the sector average of 26.7, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [13][14] Conclusion - TSMC's dominance in advanced nodes, increasing AI-related demand, and aggressive capacity investments position it well for future growth, making it a compelling buy opportunity [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights upcoming volatility events that could significantly impact equity markets, particularly for large-cap, highly liquid stocks in the Asia Pacific region [1][2]. - A tracker of key upcoming events for major companies in the region is compiled, focusing on those with substantial market capitalization and trading volume, as well as smaller stocks known for price volatility in sectors like Healthcare and Materials [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Upcoming Events - Key macro catalysts for Japan are included, indicating a focus on significant market-moving events [2]. - Specific companies and their anticipated catalysts are listed, such as: - ANTA Sports Products (2020.HK) with an operational update expected in early to mid-July 2025, monitoring for faster-than-industry performance [11]. - Fast Retailing (9983.T) with FY8/25 Q4 results due in October 2025, assessing if the bottom of performance in China is confirmed [11]. - Pop Mart International (9992.HK) expected to issue a positive profit alert in early to mid-July 2025 [11]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the Materials sector, companies like Aluminum Corp. of China (2600.HK) are monitored for aluminum demand, particularly from solar applications, with developments expected in the second half of 2025 [23]. - The report also tracks developments in the Semiconductor sector, with companies like Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and TSMC (2330.TW) expected to provide updates on market outlook and revenue guidance in the second half of 2025 [25][26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [7] Core Insights - Robust spending in China is expected to lift WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) estimates, with government subsidies being a primary driver rather than immediate market demand [3][10] - AI-driven demand is strong but faces bottlenecks in back-end test capacity, while the current annual capex of TSMC is around $40 billion, which may sustain AI growth without significant increases in demand from smartphones and PCs [4] - The EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market remains resilient despite proposed export restrictions to China, with potential for EDA companies to resume some licensing deals [5][10] Summary by Sections WFE Equipment - China is aggressively expanding its semiconductor capacity, suggesting upside to FY25 revenue views for ASML and ASM, with China representing a mid-20s percentage of revenue [3] - WFE growth may moderate in the medium term due to bottlenecks in back-end test capacity, while litho intensity is expected to hit an asymptote in the next decade [4][10] EDA & IP - The EDA market is resilient despite export restrictions, with a wide range of potential outcomes regarding China and AI [5][10] - Local Chinese EDA solutions are perceived as limited in competitive threat due to incomplete tool-chains for advanced nodes [11] Power Segment - Power semiconductors are a clear growth area, but adoption of new technologies may remain niche due to cost and infrastructure readiness [12] - Infineon is recognized for its leadership and cautious market strategies, while Chinese firms are aggressively developing high-voltage solutions [12] Notable Highlights - Intel's transformation remains uncertain with significant execution risks under new leadership, while the PC and smartphone markets are subdued [13] - Memory markets are expected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, driven by AI and edge applications [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor capital equipment industry is "In-Line" [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 China WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) forecast has been revised from a decline of 12% year-over-year to a decline of 3%, with the 2025/2026 WFE forecast adjusted from $104 billion/$109 billion to $109 billion/$110 billion [1][10]. - China is expected to show stronger performance in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite previous concerns about the sustainability of WFE demand due to low utilization rates outside major players [2][11]. - Equipment imports into China decreased by 4% year-over-year from January to May 2025, but are anticipated to pick up starting in July, mirroring the growth seen in the second half of 2024 [2][11]. Summary by Sections WFE Forecast - The WFE revenue forecast for 2025 has been increased to $109 billion (up 6% year-over-year) from $104 billion, while the 2026 forecast is slightly raised to $110 billion (up 1%) from $109 billion [1][4]. - The WFE revenue for 2025 is projected to be $109,058 million, with a year-over-year change of 6% [7]. Company-Specific Revisions - Revenue contributions from TSMC for KLA and AMAT have been revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, with KLA's contribution increasing from $2.65 billion/$2.96 billion to $2.76 billion/$3.05 billion, and AMAT's from $5.60 billion/$5.26 billion to $5.93 billion/$5.38 billion [3][22]. - The revenue forecast for KLA in 2025 has been adjusted from $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion, and for AMAT from $28.3 billion to $28.7 billion [22][27]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor capital equipment market is expected to see a significant uptick in demand driven by logic customers in China, with the region remaining the largest for WFE demand despite challenges [10][15]. - The overall sentiment indicates that state-subsidy-induced spending in China will continue to support equipment purchases, even with low utilization rates among smaller players [21][19]. Regional Insights - The WFE by region shows that China will continue to dominate the market, with significant contributions expected from Taiwan and Korea as well [9][17]. - The forecast indicates that while Taiwan and Korea will drive growth, China remains the largest region for WFE demand [15][17].

Core Insights - Seeking Alpha has introduced a new contributing analyst, Jia Ming Eow, who is encouraged to share investment ideas through article submissions [1] Company and Industry Summary - The article does not provide specific information regarding any company or industry performance, financial metrics, or market analysis [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of K&S (KLIC US) with a Buy rating, and BE Semiconductor (BESI NA) with a Neutral rating, while maintaining a Buy rating on ASMPT (522 HK) [3][6][11]. Core Insights - Advanced packaging (AP) is expected to evolve significantly from 2025 onwards, with a shift from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L/R, increased adoption of SoIC driven by HBM5, and potential upgrades in InFO technology led by Apple [3][6]. - The semiconductor cycle's recovery is a key catalyst for K&S and ASMPT, given their substantial sales exposure to conventional packaging [3][6]. CoWoS Technology - CoWoS technology is transitioning from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L, with TSMC expected to increase its CoWoS-L capacity from approximately 20% in 2024 to nearly 60% in 2025 [7][21]. - CoWoS-S is anticipated to face oversupply due to non-TSMC supply chain expansions, while CoWoS-L is expected to be in demand for high-end GPUs [7][28]. SoIC Technology - SoIC is projected to gain importance with the adoption of high-NA EUV technology, although headwinds are expected in 2025 due to limited new adopters and potential capex constraints from Intel [8][14]. - AMD is currently the major adopter of SoIC, with potential future demand driven by Apple and HBM technologies [8][14]. InFO Technology - Apple is likely to adopt upgraded InFO technology from 2026 onwards, necessitating capacity upgrades to accommodate new application processor designs [9][20]. - The transition from InFO-PoP to InFO-M is expected as the I/O count between DRAM and application processors becomes insufficient [9][20]. Company-Specific Insights - K&S is positioned to be the primary TCB supplier for TSMC's on-wafer process starting in 2025, benefiting from the shift towards CoWoS-L technology [3][6]. - ASMPT is expected to gain market share in the HBM market from a low base, with its TCB potentially adopted by TSMC and Apple in the future [3][6]. - BE Semiconductor faces challenges due to rich valuations and potentially disappointing hybrid bonding orders in 2025 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TSMC with a price target of NT$1,275.0 by December 2025 [2][28]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to maintain strong structural growth drivers due to its near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and edge AI, supported by a robust process roadmap and industry-leading packaging technology [28]. - The report anticipates a significant ramp-up in TSMC's wafer-level multichip module (WMCM) capacity, particularly for high-end iPhone models, which could lead to substantial revenue growth [5][11]. - CoWoS (Chips-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity is projected to remain tight through the second half of 2025 but is expected to reach a more balanced situation by the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections CoWoS Capacity and Demand - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to grow significantly, reaching 102,000 wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2027, with a growth rate of 138% in 2025 [3]. - NVIDIA's CoWoS demand is projected to grow by 25% in 2026, reaching 538,000 units, driven by the migration to the Rubin platform [4][9]. - Overall CoWoS consumption is forecasted to increase from 679,000 wafers in 2025 to 1,132,000 wafers in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% [9]. WMCM Capacity and Adoption - WMCM capacity is expected to reach 27,000 wfpm by the end of 2026 and ramp up to 40,000 wfpm by the end of 2027, driven by Apple’s adoption in high-end iPhone models [5][11]. - If all iPhones were to migrate to WMCM long-term, this would require approximately 90,000 wfpm of WMCM capacity, indicating a significant expansion plan [5]. Customer Demand and Projections - Broadcom is expected to see steady growth in CoWoS consumption, particularly for Google TPUs, while new customers like Meta are anticipated to ramp up in 2026 [4]. - AMD's CoWoS forecasts remain muted for 2025 and 2026, with potential growth expected in the MI450 series in late 2026 and beyond [4]. - The report highlights that the CoWoS ecosystem is maturing, with more non-AI processors beginning to adopt CoWoS packaging, indicating broader market adoption [4]. Future Outlook - TSMC's structural growth is expected to be supported by price hikes on leading-edge nodes and a strong ramp-up of N2 technology in 2026 [28]. - The report suggests that TSMC will likely raise its FY25 USD revenue guidance, alleviating concerns regarding gross margin impacts from overseas expansion and currency fluctuations [28].

Global memorv EQUITY: MEMORY Upside potential remains solid into 2027F, thanks to Al Commodity DRAM/NAND: strong 1H25F and weak 4Q25F – shipment and ASP growth in 2Q25F likely higher than expected due to pull-in demand in anticipation of a tariff hike For 2Q25, we had pencilled in 10-20% q-q growth in both DRAM and NAND shipments. However, we now believe that actual shipment growth could turn out to be higher than our previous expectation ([company guidance] DRAM: SEC and Hynix 10-12% q-q; NAND: SEC 15% q-q ...

25 June 2025 | 8:38PM CST TSMC (2330.TW) Growth outlook further reinforced by easing concern on AI order cuts and growing CoWoS adoption; reiterate Buy (on CL); TP to NT$1,210 | 2330.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$1,210.00 | Price: NT$1,070.00 | Upside: 13.1% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSM | 12m Price Target: $242.00 | Price: $220.09 | Upside: 10.0% | We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing co ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Institutional investors often rely on earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. TSMC's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, TSMC is expected to earn $9.28 per share, which remains unchanged from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC has increased by 1.4%, reflecting a positive outlook [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [7]. - TSMC's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].