Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the market with a base case index target for MXCN at 67 by the end of 2025, with a preference for sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities [36][38]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the MXCN index, driven by sectors like IT and Healthcare, with expectations of a market reversal by late January 2025 [9][11]. - The report highlights a cautious approach towards Consumer Discretionary and Staples, recommending a rotation into quality laggards and large caps over small and mid-caps [36][38]. - The anticipated GDP growth for China in 2025 is projected at 4.1%, slightly below the consensus of 4.2% [10]. Market & Sector Performance - MXCN sectors performance shows Consumer Discretionary up by 3.2% week-on-week, while Information Technology leads with an 8.3% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.0%, with a notable recovery in sectors impacted by US tariffs [7][12]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific data releases, including PMIs and housing transactions, which could influence market movements [14]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The consensus forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2025 are 5.1% for Q1, declining to 3.9% by Q4, indicating a gradual slowdown [16]. Index Targets - The MSCI-China index target for 2025 is set at 71, with a bull case of 80 and a bear case of 70, reflecting a potential upside of 13% from current levels [18]. - The CSI-300 index target for 2025 is projected at 3,787, with a bull case of 4,150, indicating a 10% upside potential [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising underweight positions in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Staples [39]. - A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors [36][38]. Trading Statistics - Recent trading statistics indicate a net outflow of US$796 million from China equities, primarily driven by passive fund outflows, although there has been a positive development with resumed offshore ETF inflows [79][80].

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 Southbound flow forecast from US$75 billion to US$110 billion, indicating a positive investment outlook for Southbound flows [4][39][41]. Core Insights - Southbound investors have shown strong net buying activity, with US$78 billion in net purchases year-to-date, representing 75% of the expected full-year inflows for 2024 [1][9]. - The performance of the Hong Kong market is increasingly correlated with Southbound flows, suggesting that these investors are gaining pricing power [2][11]. - The report identifies key drivers for Southbound inflows, including attractive H-share profiles, increased domestic institutional investment, and hedging demand against potential RMB depreciation [10][41]. Summary by Sections Southbound Flows and Market Impact - Southbound investors currently hold US$577 billion of HK-listed stocks, accounting for 13% of the market cap of eligible stocks, up from 10% a year ago [2][11]. - The turnover contribution from Southbound investors has increased from 17% in 2024 to 21% year-to-date [2][11]. - The report notes that the Southbound flows have become a significant influence on the Hong Kong market, with a notable increase in ownership and turnover [11][12]. Investor Composition - Both onshore retail and institutional investors are participating in Southbound trading, with institutional investors estimated to account for at least half of the Southbound ownership [3][25]. - Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to historical highs, contributing to the Southbound inflows [28][39]. Forecast and Drivers - The report forecasts that Southbound flows could reach US$110 billion in 2025, driven by factors such as the attractiveness of H-shares, increased dual-primary listings, and potential dividend tax exemptions for Southbound investors [4][39][43]. - The report highlights that the home-coming of US-listed Chinese companies could further boost Southbound buying, with Alibaba's dual-primary listing serving as a precedent [41][50]. Investment Opportunities - A refreshed Southbound Favorite Portfolio includes 50 companies identified for their scarcity value, valuation discounts, and high sensitivity to Southbound flows, expected to outperform if inflows remain strong [5][49]. - The report also screens for 33 ADRs eligible for HK dual-primary listing, which may benefit from Southbound buying post-inclusion [5][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the China equity market, with a base case index target for MXCN at HK$80 for 2025, implying a 30% upside from current levels [17][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates a broad-based recovery in the MXCN/CSI300 indices, driven by national team buying and expectations of new policy easing, with a modest increase of 1.6% week-on-week [8]. - The report highlights a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, with improved macro data from China leading to a more favorable QMI reading [9]. - The investment strategy suggests a focus on high-yield sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising caution in Consumer Discretionary and Materials [10][36]. Market & Sector Performance - The report provides detailed sector performance metrics, showing Consumer Discretionary up 1.5% week-on-week but down 20.2% month-to-date, while Real Estate outperformed with a 3.0% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index showed a 1.5% increase over the week but a decline of 14.6% month-to-date [6]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic events in China, including LPR announcements and housing transaction data, which could influence market movements [13]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The report presents GDP growth forecasts for China, projecting 5.0% for Q1 2025, slightly revised from previous estimates [15]. QMI & Index Targets - The report sets specific index targets for MSCI-China and CSI-300, with the latter projected at 3,772 RMB for 2025, indicating a 10% upside potential [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a barbell strategy focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors, while advising a rotation into quality laggards [36][38]. - Specific sector recommendations include Overweight (OW) for Energy, IT, and Utilities, while downgrading Consumer Discretionary and Materials to Underweight (UW) [38].

14 April 2025 China Internet China Internet: The adults in the room, and the cymbal-banging monkey Robin Zhu +852 2123 2659 robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou +852 2123 2618 charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Min-Joo Kang +852 2123 2644 minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Charlie Peng +81 3 6777 6993 charlie.peng@bernsteinsg.com Yes, tariffs. But fade sentiment extremes (again). Discussions on US trade tariffs and their knock-on impacts have dominated our discussions with investors since Q4 reporting. With the headline ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Investor concerns regarding ADR de-listing risks have resurfaced due to escalating US-China trade tensions and regulatory risks highlighted by the America First Investment Policy [1][9] - The US-China trade tensions have reached unprecedented levels, with effective US tariffs on Chinese imports reaching 107% and Chinese tariffs on US goods at 144% as of April 2023 [9] - The US-China Relations Barometer indicates that bilateral frictions are at two-year highs, contributing to increased volatility in global capital markets [8][9] - The potential for US investors to liquidate approximately US$800 billion worth of holdings in Chinese stocks if banned from investing in Chinese securities has been highlighted [9] Summary by Sections ADR De-listing Risks - ADR de-listing risks have returned to the forefront due to regulatory gaps on audit inspections between the US and China, particularly under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) [11] - The SEC identified five Chinese stocks as Commission-Identified Issuers (CII) under the HFCAA in March 2022, leading to a significant drawdown in the ADR index [11] - The PCAOB and CSRC signed an agreement in August 2022 to allow PCAOB access to audit papers of Chinese ADRs, which has eased some concerns [11] Mechanisms for De-listing - De-listing can be voluntary or involuntary, with involuntary de-listing typically occurring faster and putting pressure on share prices [17] - Forced de-listing can be triggered by accounting fraud, non-compliance with HFCAA, US sanctions, or violations of Chinese regulations [17] - A simplified process for de-listing includes investors selling before the last trading day and potentially trading on the OTC market [17][20] Share Fungibility Mechanism - The share fungibility mechanism allows for the conversion between ADS and HK shares, which is effective for companies with dual primary listings or ADR/HK secondary listings [25] - The conversion process generally takes two business days, and no new shares are created during this process [25][24] Impact on Investors - US institutional investors currently hold around US$830 billion in Chinese stocks, with significant potential selling pressure if forced to liquidate [32][34] - Retail ownership in Chinese ADRs is estimated to be over US$370 billion, with companies having high retail ownership facing stronger selling pressures [32][34] - Passive investment vehicles like ETFs may be significantly impacted by ADR de-listing, particularly those with high exposure to ADRs without HK listings [43]

Core Insights - The U.S. has imposed new licensing requirements for AMD and NVIDIA chips to be exported to China, impacting their growth prospects in a significant market [1][2] - AMD's shares fell approximately 7% in pre-market trading, while NVIDIA's shares declined around 6% following the announcement [1] - China represents a substantial portion of revenues for both companies, with 24% of AMD's 2024 revenues and 13% of NVIDIA's fiscal 2025 revenues coming from the region [2] AMD's Financial Performance - AMD's Data Center revenues accounted for about 50% of total revenues in 2024, increasing by 69% year-over-year to $3.9 billion [9] - The company generated over $5 billion in data center AI revenues in 2024, driven by deployments of MI300X by major clients like Meta Platforms and Microsoft [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMD's 2025 earnings is $4.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 38.67% [15] Competitive Landscape - AMD faces intense competition from NVIDIA, particularly in the data center and AI chip markets, contributing to a 21.2% drop in AMD's shares year-to-date [3] - The company has been expanding its product portfolio, including the fifth-generation EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators, to counter NVIDIA's market position [5][11] Strategic Initiatives - AMD has established a rich partner base, including major companies like Cisco, IBM, and Microsoft, to enhance its market presence [13] - Recent acquisitions, such as Silo AI and ZT Systems, aim to bolster AMD's AI capabilities and infrastructure [14] Valuation and Market Sentiment - AMD stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 4.6X compared to the industry average of 2.84X [16][17] - The stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend in the market [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report assesses the valuation risk-reward for China internet mega-caps following a significant decline in China internet ADRs, with declines ranging from 7% to 18% on a specific Friday, and KWEB down 9.4% due to the announcement of additional tariffs by the US and China [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Metrics**: The median P/E for China internet companies is currently at 12X, with a profit growth outlook of 10-15%. There is an average upside of 34% to the 12-month target prices (TPs) across mega-caps, with a downside of 25% to trough valuations from October 2022 and September 2024 [5][6]. - **Limited US Exposure**: Most China internet companies have limited exposure to the US market, with the majority of revenues coming from domestic eCommerce and advertising. Notably, PDD's Temu platform has diversified its user base significantly, reducing US contributions from 100% in late 2022 to less than 15% by February 2025 [5][6][12]. - **Domestic Focus Preference**: There is a preference for domestically-focused businesses due to potential domestic policy easing amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff escalations. The report suggests that higher-than-expected US tariffs may lead to further domestic policy support [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: The report outlines a dual-pronged investment strategy focusing on domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive gaming companies with solid global footprints. Key stock ideas include Tencent, Xiaomi, and PDD, with PDD being valued at 9X P/E or 6X ex-cash, indicating a lack of market value ascribed to Temu [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Capex Forecast**: The total capital expenditure (Capex) for major players in the China internet sector is expected to grow by 25% year-over-year in 2025. The new tariffs could lead to higher prices for US chips, potentially affecting AI Capex [17][20]. - **Revenue Growth Trends**: The report highlights a correlation between sales growth and valuations, indicating that China internet valuations are sensitive to top-line revisions rather than earnings revisions [23][26]. - **International Revenue Contributions**: The report provides insights into the overseas revenue contributions of key China internet companies, with notable drops in international revenue contributions for companies like Xiaomi due to a ramp-up in domestic EV revenue [10][11]. - **Market Performance**: The report includes a detailed performance analysis of various companies, showing significant fluctuations in market cap and P/E ratios, with Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com being highlighted for their respective valuations and growth prospects [29][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China internet industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on datacenter operators, indicating they can sustain profitability levels above historical norms, despite tempered AI demand expectations [5]. Core Insights - The global datacenter supply/demand model has been updated, indicating a loosening of supply constraints earlier than previously expected, with peak occupancy now forecasted for 2025 instead of 2026 [3][13]. - Occupancy rates are projected to remain above historical levels, with a gradual loosening expected from 2026 through 2027, stabilizing around average levels seen over the past 18 months [3][45]. - Demand growth forecasts have been adjusted, particularly for AI workloads, reflecting a more gradual pace of AI training demand and a net decrease in incremental demand over the next 18 months [12][15]. Supply and Demand Overview - The current global datacenter market capacity is estimated at approximately 63 GW, with a significant portion owned by hyperscaler and cloud providers [25]. - By 2030, the total datacenter capacity is expected to reach approximately 131 GW, translating to a 6-year CAGR of ~14% [35]. - The report highlights that the mix of datacenter workloads will shift further towards cloud workloads, with hyperscale and wholesale datacenters expected to comprise about 75% of the total by 2030 [35]. Demand Forecast - The global datacenter market demand is estimated to grow by ~50% to 86 GW by 2027, with AI workloads increasing to 27% of the overall market [15]. - AI workload demand is projected to grow at a 38% CAGR, while traditional corporate workloads are expected to grow at a modest 3% [20]. Supply Forecast - The report indicates that supply sufficiency is expected to decrease by an average of 3% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 6% in 2027, with a long-term forecasted supply sufficiency of 86% by 2030 [13]. - The datacenter supply model reflects a historical increase of ~2 GW due to actual capacity increases and adjustments to historical supply tracking [12]. Power Demand and Sustainability - Datacenter power demand is projected to increase by ~160% by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, contributing approximately 1% CAGR to overall US power demand [75]. - The report anticipates that 40% of the datacenter power increase will be met with renewables, with the remaining 60% expected to be driven by natural gas generation [76]. Grid Investments - The report estimates that approximately $720 billion will be required for grid investments through 2030, primarily focused on distribution and transmission upgrades to support datacenter growth [68].

Core Viewpoint - Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) has experienced a significant stock decline of 17% over the past month, attributed to geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures in the AI and cloud sectors, despite the company's advancements in technology and strategic initiatives [1][2][3][23]. Financial Performance - Baidu's AI Cloud revenue increased by 26% year over year in Q4 2024, contributing to a 17% full-year growth, with generative AI-related revenue nearly tripling in 2024 [8]. - The company closed 2024 with a net cash position of approximately RMB 170.5 billion and free cash flow of RMB 13.1 billion, indicating strong financial health [14]. - Analysts have revised the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Baidu's 2025 earnings per share upward to $10.08 from $9.59, reflecting a positive sentiment shift [16]. Strategic Initiatives - Baidu is expanding its autonomous ride-hailing service, Apollo Go, which provided over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, marking a 36% year-over-year increase [10]. - The company has made strategic advancements by open-sourcing the ERNIE 4.5 series and offering ERNIE Bot for free to drive adoption in a competitive AI landscape [3]. Competitive Landscape - Baidu faces intense competition in the AI and cloud sectors from Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, both of which have strong customer bases and significant investments in AI technologies [18][20]. - The rise of startups like Zhipu AI, backed by major investors, adds to the competitive pressure in the AI sector [21]. Market Positioning - Despite recent stock volatility and concerns over geopolitical tensions, Baidu presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity, with a current valuation that is discounted relative to its industry [23][24]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Baidu's prospects, with 10 out of 19 rating it a "Strong Buy," and an average price target of $108.88 implies a 41.7% upside from its latest closing price [25][26].

Core Insights - Ubisoft announced a deal to spin out some of its best-selling franchises, leading to a surge in its shares [1] - Tencent is investing 1.16 billion euros ($1.25 billion) into a newly formed gaming subsidiary that will include major franchises like Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, and Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six [1][2] - The new subsidiary is valued at 4 billion euros, which is more than double Ubisoft's current market capitalization [2] Financial Performance - Ubisoft shares jumped 11% following the announcement of the new subsidiary [2] - The investment from Tencent indicates strong market confidence in the new unit's potential to create evergreen and multi-platform game ecosystems [2] Strategic Moves - The formation of the new subsidiary aims to address uncertainties surrounding Ubisoft's future, especially after facing financial struggles and delays in key game releases [3] - The focus on building game ecosystems suggests a strategic shift towards long-term sustainability and growth in the gaming market [2][3]