Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is positioned as a stable investment option during market uncertainty, offering consistent dividend income and potential growth in its smoke-free product segment [2][10]. Financial Performance - Altria's net revenue after excise taxes increased by 1.6% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, despite an 8% decline in cigarette sales volume [3]. - The smokeables division generated an operating income of $10.8 billion in 2024, with a 60% operating margin, highlighting its profitability [3]. Product Strategy - Altria aims to double its smoke-free product sales to $5 billion by 2028, although it currently lags behind competitors like Philip Morris International [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its smoke-free product offerings, including nicotine pouches and electronic vaping [4]. Capital Returns and Dividends - Altria has reduced its shares outstanding by 14% over the last 10 years, with accelerated buybacks in 2024 [6]. - The dividend per share has increased by approximately 100% over the past decade, with a current quarterly payout of $1.02 [6]. - Management plans to grow the dividend per share at a mid-single-digit percentage rate annually, around 5% through 2028 [7]. Investment Rationale - Investing $1,000 in Altria Group stock is projected to yield around $70 in annual dividend income based on the current yield [9]. - The company has demonstrated a 103% growth in free cash flow per share over the last 10 years, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [9][10].

Core Insights - Altria is facing significant challenges as cigarette demand declines, which is its primary revenue source, while management emphasizes potential opportunities that may indicate the company is lagging behind [1][10] Business Overview - Altria's main business revolves around cigarette sales, which constituted 88% of its revenues in 2024, with cigarettes making up nearly 98% of smokeable tobacco volumes [2] Financial Performance - Cigarette volumes have been declining for years, with a notable drop of 10.2% in 2024; however, price increases have mitigated revenue losses, resulting in a 1.3% revenue decline and a 3.4% rise in adjusted earnings [3] - The company raised its dividend in 2024, reflecting a high dividend yield of approximately 7%, which attracts dividend investors despite the negative trends in its core business [4] Market Trends - The number of smokers in the U.S. decreased from 34 million in 2019 to 28 million in 2024, while non-combustible product users remained stable at around 8 million; however, non-combustible-only consumers surged from 11 million to 18 million, marking a 60% growth [5][6] Strategic Missteps - Altria has made several strategic errors, including spinning off Philip Morris International, which left it vulnerable in a declining cigarette market and created new competition in the non-combustible space [7] - Investments in Juul and a marijuana company resulted in significant write-offs, and while the recent acquisition of NJOY shows better sales performance, it faces patent litigation with Juul [8] Growth Opportunities - Non-combustible products are increasingly important, yet Altria has not capitalized on this trend, with non-smokeable products accounting for only 11.7% of revenues in 2024, down from 12.4% in 2019, despite the non-combustible category growing significantly [9][10]

Perhaps not surprisingly, defensive stock Philip Morris International ( PM ) has been one of the best-performing US companies this year. When I initially covered the stock in November 2024, I argued that it was a best-in-class defensive stock with strongI am an investment professional with a background in both equity and real estate markets. I specialize in identifying long-only opportunities that offer safe and growing dividends, aiming to outperform the broader market on a risk-adjusted return basis. In a ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) has experienced a significant increase of 66% over the past year, outperforming NVIDIA's (NVDA) 12-month returns amidst a broader market trend [1]. Company Performance - The stock performance of Philip Morris International has been notably strong, with a 66% rise in value over the last year, indicating robust investor interest and confidence in the company's future prospects [1]. Market Context - The current market environment shows a shift in investor focus, with analysts primarily concentrating on AI technologies, yet Philip Morris is achieving substantial returns that surpass those of major tech companies like NVIDIA [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article compares Altria and Philip Morris International, highlighting their differing business models, financial performance, and growth prospects in the tobacco industry, particularly in the context of their transitions to smoke-free products. Business Model Comparison - Altria and Philip Morris, despite sharing cigarette brands, have different business models, with Altria focusing on the U.S. market and Philip Morris on international markets [2][3] - Philip Morris has successfully developed next-generation products like Iqos and Zyn, gaining significant market share, while Altria has struggled with its investments in Juul and cannabis [4][5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Altria's revenue declined by 1.9% to $24 billion, primarily due to a 10.2% drop in cigarette shipment volume, although it maintained a high adjusted operating margin of 61.2% [8][9] - Philip Morris reported a 7.7% increase in revenue to $37.9 billion, with a 0.6% rise in international cigarette volume and a 16% increase in operating income [9] Dividend and Valuation - Altria offers a dividend yield of 7% and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3, maintaining a strong reputation as a dividend payer [10][11] - Philip Morris has a lower dividend yield of 3.5% but a higher P/E ratio of 22, reflecting its faster growth and success in next-gen products [11] Growth Prospects - Altria is beginning to see growth from its investment in Njoy, but it continues to face revenue losses and challenges in its core cigarette business [12] - Philip Morris is experiencing growth in both its next-gen products and its cigarette business, indicating a more favorable long-term growth trajectory [12][13]

Core Insights - The ability to generate cash is more critical than net income for evaluating stocks, as non-cash expenses can distort the financial picture [1] - Free cash flow margin is a key profitability metric that indicates a company's ability to convert sales into cash available for shareholders [2] Company Summaries Altria Group - Altria Group leads the U.S. large-cap consumer staples sector with a free cash flow margin exceeding 42%, significantly higher than Philip Morris International's 28% [3] - The company's strong cash flow generation supports a high dividend yield of 6.9%, ranking it among the top 20 dividend yields in U.S. large-cap stocks [3] Airbnb - Airbnb has a free cash flow margin of just under 41%, leading the U.S. large-cap consumer discretionary sector [6] - The company's free cash flow increased by 108% from 2021 to 2024, reaching $4.5 billion, with a notable turnaround from a loss of $225 million in 2021 to a profit of $2.6 billion in 2024 [6][7] - A significant $1.9 billion difference exists between Airbnb's net income and free cash flow, primarily due to $1.4 billion in stock-based compensation [7] - Despite concerns about stock-based compensation diluting shares, Airbnb has engaged in $3.4 billion in buybacks to mitigate this effect, reducing its fully diluted share count by over 5% since December 2022 [8][9] Texas Pacific Land - Texas Pacific Land boasts a free cash flow margin of over 65%, the highest among U.S. large-cap stocks in the energy sector [10] - The company's royalty business model allows it to profit from leasing land rights for oil extraction without incurring the costs of extraction [11]

Market Overview - The stock market began 2025 strong but has recently faced challenges due to trade wars and tariffs, with the S&P 500 down nearly 4.5% year to date [1] CVS Health - CVS Health has seen a significant increase of approximately 51% in 2025, boosted by better-than-expected year-end earnings and guidance in line with Wall Street expectations [3][4] - The company had a difficult previous year, with shares dropping by 43%, leading to a change in CEO, which has contributed to improved investor sentiment [4][5] - Despite the positive performance, CVS faces high medical costs and uncertainty in the healthcare sector, with a current valuation of 18 times trailing earnings, indicating it is not overly expensive [5][6] Super Micro Computer - Super Micro Computer's stock has risen by 26.5% in 2025, recovering from previous concerns about its financial statements and auditor issues [7][8] - The company successfully filed its financial statements on time with a new auditor, alleviating fears of delisting, and is benefiting from increased demand for IT infrastructure driven by AI developments [8] - However, the company reported a gross profit of $2.1 billion on sales of $14.9 billion, indicating thin margins, and potential risks from economic conditions and tariffs [9] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's shares increased by 27.9% in 2025, following better-than-expected guidance for adjusted earnings per share [10] - The stock received a boost from regulatory approval to market its nicotine pouch, Zyn, in the U.S., although concerns remain about the health implications of such products [11][12] - Despite the positive start to the year, the stock trades at 25 times earnings, raising questions about its long-term viability in a declining tobacco market [12]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of potential recession, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicting a 2.1% decline in Q1 GDP after earlier forecasts of over 2% growth [1] Walmart - Walmart is positioned as a top defensive stock, having gained 2% during the Covid recession while the S&P 500 lost 25%, and rose 12% during the Great Recession of 2008-2009 [2][3] - The company benefits from its size and scale, providing significant buying power that allows it to be a price leader during economic downturns [4] - Walmart's extensive reach means 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a store, which supports its Walmart+ membership growth, particularly among wealthier consumers [5] - Upper-income households, defined as those earning $100,000 or more, have been a key growth driver for Walmart, potentially increasing their patronage during a recession [6] - Walmart is also expanding its advertising and online marketplace businesses, enhancing fulfillment capabilities for third-party merchants [7] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's traditional cigarette business remains strong, with modest volume growth and strong pricing power, particularly in international markets [8] - The company's smokeless products, such as Zyn and IQOS, are significant growth drivers, with Zyn projected to see volume growth of 34% to 41% this year [9] - IQOS has also experienced solid growth, with plans for broader rollout in the U.S. pending FDA approval [10] - Zyn and IQOS offer better unit economics compared to traditional cigarettes, with Zyn's contribution level being six times greater and IQOS's twice as good [11] - The addictive nature of Philip Morris' products makes them resilient during economic downturns, and the company offers a 3.5% dividend yield, making it an attractive growth stock in a defensive industry [12]

Altria (MO 1.40%) isn't a household name in the consumer staples sector, but its main brand is probably one you know. Indeed, its Marlboro cigarette brand has a nearly 42% share of the U.S. cigarette market. Add in a 7.3% yield backed by a growing dividend, and you can see why investors would be attracted to Altria's shares. Could a $10,000 investment help get you to millionaire status? Maybe, but you need to balance the reward against the risk before jumping in.What does Altria do?Altria is a consumer stap ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer staples sector is demonstrating resilience amid a broader market downturn, outperforming the S&P 500 and breaking through previous resistance levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 ETF has declined nearly 3% in a week, with most sectors following this downward trend due to rising economic uncertainty [1]. - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) has outperformed the broader market, showcasing its defensive nature during turbulent times [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Characteristics - Consumer staples include essential goods such as food, beverages, household items, and personal care products, which maintain steady demand regardless of economic conditions [2]. - This sector is considered a "defensive" investment, providing consistent revenue and earnings, especially when growth stocks falter [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The XLP ETF offers diversified exposure to the consumer staples sector with a low expense ratio of 0.09% and a dividend yield of 2.2%, making it a cost-effective choice for long-term investors [6]. - Costco Wholesale, as XLP's largest holding, has seen its stock rise over 43% in the past year, with a projected EPS of $4.09 for its upcoming earnings report [8][9]. - Philip Morris International has surged 72% over the past year, with a robust dividend yield of 3.43% and strong earnings guidance for 2025, driven by a significant increase in oral product shipments [10][11].