Core Viewpoint - Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol are pursuing repayment for gas supplied to the country without charge [1] Group 1 - Eni and Repsol have been providing gas to Italy at no cost, which has raised concerns regarding financial compensation [1] - The companies are now seeking to recover costs associated with the gas they have supplied, indicating a shift in their operational strategy [1]

Core Insights - The merger between Galp and Moeve aims to consolidate their downstream operations, creating a significant player in the Southern European refining and retail market with a combined capacity of approximately 710,000 b/d [4][13] - The merger is strategically designed to enhance retail integration and scale, allowing the combined entity to better navigate the competitive landscape and adapt to evolving market demands [11][12] Refining Capacity and Configuration - The merged system will include three core refineries: San Roque (250,000 b/d), La Rábida (240,000 b/d), and Sines (225,000 b/d), collectively accounting for nearly 30% of Spain's national distillation capacity [2] - The refineries are configured to optimize gasoline and middle-distillate yields, with diesel/gasoil making up about 40% of output, gasoline around 20%, and jet fuel typically 10-15% [1] Demand Trends - Gasoline demand in Spain has shown unexpected growth, peaking at approximately 187,000 b/d in July 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8% for 2025 [5][6] - Diesel demand remains stable, reflecting the dominance of diesel engines in the vehicle fleet, while the anticipated decline in clean-product demand has not yet occurred [7] Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - By mid-2025, hybrids accounted for about 40% of new car registrations in Spain, supporting gasoline consumption rather than displacing it [8] - The tourism sector has also contributed to gasoline demand, with record visits to Spain and Portugal in 2025 [8] Export and Competitive Landscape - The increase in domestic gasoline consumption has reduced the volume of clean products available for export, with Moeve's clean-product exports from Spain averaging around 65,000 b/d, approximately 32% below 2021 levels [9] - The export environment has become more competitive due to new capacities in the Middle East and India, impacting Mediterranean trade routes [10] Retail Integration and Strategic Positioning - The merger will create a network of around 3,100 service stations, enhancing captive demand and improving product placement synergies [11] - The long-term rationale for the merger includes adapting to stricter climate policies and transitioning towards renewable fuels, with both companies pursuing biofuels projects [12][13] Strategic Implications - The merger positions Galp and Moeve to focus on higher-return upstream growth while maintaining exposure to downstream cash flows [13] - The transaction represents a strategic challenge to Repsol, the regional leader, which has yet to articulate a comparable downstream strategy [13]

Core Viewpoint - The liquefied natural gas supplier has successfully defeated Repsol in arbitration, while ongoing disputes with BP and Shell continue [1] Group 1 - The arbitration victory against Repsol highlights the supplier's strong legal position in the industry [1] - The disputes with BP and Shell indicate potential ongoing challenges and complexities in the supplier's business relationships [1]

Group 1 - Venture Global announced that an arbitration tribunal ruled in its favor in a dispute with Repsol regarding the initial failure to deliver liquefied natural gas [1]

Core Insights - Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven crude reserves, approximately 303 billion barrels, which is about 17% of the global total, despite the challenges posed by state control and mismanagement [2][3] Group 1: Production Potential - Macquarie Group's energy strategist identifies four main opportunities for restoring Venezuelan oil output, including excess declines of 200,000 to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) that could be remedied with sanctions relief and investment within 6 to 24 months [1] - Revitalizing old fields could yield an additional 100,000 to 200,000 bpd within a 1 to 3-year timeframe, while existing Orinoco projects could restore 200,000 to 300,000 bpd over a 1 to 4-year horizon [1] - New investment initiatives could potentially add 500,000 to 700,000 bpd, with lead times of 3 to 6 years, suggesting a long-term upside to about 2 million bpd if 75% of these volumes are achieved [1] Group 2: Current Production and Infrastructure - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from around 3 million bpd in 2008 to approximately 963,000 bpd by the end of last year due to collapsed infrastructure and sanctions [2] - The main constraints include a chronic shortage of diluent, broken upgraders, and the hollowing out of PDVSA, which has been severely impacted by mismanagement and sanctions [2] Group 3: International Involvement and Investment - Chevron and Repsol are expected to lead the charge in revitalizing Venezuela's oil production, with Chevron aiming to boost production by about 50% in the next 18 to 24 months [7] - Repsol's CEO indicated plans to triple production in the next two to three years, contingent on legal clarifications regarding operations and profits [7] - The U.S. government is focusing on monetizing oil held in storage, with estimates suggesting around 34 million barrels of crude stored in Venezuela and additional amounts in Aruba and the Bahamas [5][6] Group 4: Regulatory and Political Landscape - Maria Corina Machado proposes downsizing PDVSA and transferring assets to private investors, aiming to create a regulatory agency independent of the state oil company [8] - Recent legislation presented by Delcy Rodriguez aims to encourage foreign investment in oil fields and infrastructure, incorporating production models from the Anti-Blockade Law into Venezuela's Hydrocarbons Law [8] - The future of Venezuela's oil sector will depend on rebuilding institutional frameworks and achieving a balance between private participation and state sovereignty [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil Services - **Focus**: Implications of the political situation in Venezuela on global oil services companies Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuela's Oil Production Recovery**: - Production may increase slightly in the short term, potentially reaching several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next 2-3 years if a US-supported government is established and sanctions are lifted [2][10] - Historical peak production was approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s, with Venezuela holding about 20% of global proven oil reserves [2][11] - **Investment Requirements**: - Any recovery in production will be gradual and necessitate substantial investment [2] - Companies like Chevron, ENI, and Repsol currently have operations in Venezuela, with Chevron being the only US oil major still active [17] - **OCTG Market Potential**: - Demand for Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) in Venezuela could reach 140,000 to 240,000 tons by 2030, translating to a market size of $0.6 to $1 billion [4][30] - The current addressable OCTG market for Tenaris and Vallourec is estimated at 5.7 million tons and approximately $18 billion, indicating that the Venezuelan market could add 3-4% in volume and 3-5% in dollar terms [36] - **Tenaris and Vallourec's Position**: - Tenaris has a long-standing presence in Venezuela and supplies Chevron's OCTG needs, benefiting from logistical advantages due to local operations [3][27] - Vallourec, while currently absent from Venezuela, could supply the market from its Brazilian plant, leveraging a competitive cost base [28] - **US Oil Services Companies**: - Companies like SLB, Halliburton, and Weatherford International are positioned to benefit from increased activity in Venezuela [8][44] - SLB has indicated its ability to scale operations in Venezuela if activity increases, while Halliburton and Weatherford have historical ties and expertise that could be advantageous [8][45][46] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Oil Price Implications**: - A recovery in Venezuelan production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030 could pose significant downside risks to long-term oil prices, potentially reducing Brent oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel [11] - Current estimates suggest that Brent prices could average $58 per barrel if production declines, and $54 per barrel if production increases [10] - **Technical Requirements for OCTG**: - The extraction of heavy crude from the Orinoco Oil Belt requires complex, high-performance OCTG solutions due to the challenging conditions [29] - The majority of Venezuela's proven reserves are high-sulfur and heavy crude, necessitating robust materials and testing protocols for well integrity [29] - **Rig Count and Well Drilling**: - The estimated rig count needed to support a production level of 2 million barrels per day by 2030 is between 40 to 50 active rigs, with an annual drilling of 480 to 600 new wells [31][32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential implications for the oil services industry stemming from the evolving situation in Venezuela, highlighting both opportunities and risks for companies involved in this sector.

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

In afternoon trade in Europe, shares were down nearly 6% the second-largest faller on the Stoxx Europe 600 index. ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Markets Strategy Industry Overview - The report discusses the **global financial markets** with a focus on the **U.S. economy**, **oil supply dynamics**, and **metals market** trends, particularly in relation to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Risks vs. Financial Market Resilience** - There is a growing disconnect between calm financial markets and rising geopolitical risks, particularly highlighted by events in **Venezuela** and **Greenland** [5][15] - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index remains elevated, while the VIX indicates a contained risk environment, suggesting a procyclical, risk-on market sentiment [11][15] 2. **U.S. Economic Outlook** - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with a December report indicating +50k nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate decrease to **4.4%** [16] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will maintain policy rates without cuts for the remainder of the year, despite market pricing in potential cuts [17] 3. **Oil Supply Dynamics** - Following political changes in Venezuela, there is potential for oil production to rebound to **1.2 million barrels per day (mbd)** from current levels of **0.8 mbd**, with further increases possible in the coming years [18] - Venezuela's oil reserves are significant, holding **303 billion barrels**, which could shift global energy market dynamics [18] 4. **Metals Market Trends** - The report maintains a bullish outlook on **gold** and **copper**, with expectations for gold prices to rise towards **$5,000/oz** by Q4 2026 [23] - Silver prices have surged but are expected to face downward pressure due to upcoming rebalancing, with a noted **44% increase** since early December [22] 5. **Investment Recommendations** - The report recommends a focus on **procyclical assets** and **high-beta currencies** such as **AUD**, **GBP**, and **EUR** [7] - In equities, a preference for sectors like **Technology**, **Communication Services**, and **Utilities** is noted, while **Energy** and **Materials** are underweighted [12][33] Additional Important Content - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include a higher Fed terminal rate, spillover risks from fiscal concerns in Japan, and geopolitical escalations beyond Venezuela [6][29] - **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates that the resilient macro outlook is widely held among clients, with concerns about potential corrections if the Fed's easing is slower than expected [29] - **Commodities Forecast**: The forecast for oil prices remains stable despite potential increases in Venezuelan supply, with expectations for a decline in the forward curve beyond three years [8] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from J.P. Morgan's analysis, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations.

能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 15 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...