Core Viewpoint - Rheinmetall's share price has significantly increased, reflecting a broader trend in European defense stocks driven by geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending across Europe [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Rheinmetall's share price reached €1,960, its highest since October, and is close to its all-time high of €2,010, marking a nearly 40% increase from its lowest point in December [1]. - Other European defense stocks, such as BAE Systems and Babcock International, have also seen substantial gains, with BAE Systems rising by 35% from its December low [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Rising tensions between the European Union and the United States have contributed to the surge in defense stocks, as European countries reassess their security strategies [2][3]. - Donald Trump's statements regarding military force and tariffs have prompted European nations to increase their defense budgets, reflecting a shift in reliance on U.S. support [3]. Group 3: Defense Spending - Germany has increased its defense budget to €108.2 billion, the largest on record, with significant allocations to the Bundeswehr and a special fund [4]. - Other European countries, including France, Italy, and Spain, are also increasing their defense spending, which is expected to benefit companies like Rheinmetall [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Rheinmetall's backlog has surged to €80 billion, up from €54 billion in 2024 and €38 billion in 2023, indicating strong demand for its products [6]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from €7.17 billion in 2023 to between €11.3 billion and €12.2 billion in 2025, with an operating margin expected to reach 15.5% [6]. Group 5: Valuation Concerns - Despite strong growth prospects, there are concerns about the company's valuation, with a forward P/E ratio exceeding 40 and a PEG ratio of 1.18, suggesting the stock may be priced for perfection [7]. Group 6: Technical Analysis - Rheinmetall's stock has rebounded from a low of €411 in December to €1,958, surpassing key moving averages and approaching resistance at €2,010 [10][11]. - A breakout above €2,010 could lead to further gains, potentially reaching €2,125, according to technical analysis [11].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are closed on January 19, 2026, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with no cash equity trading or after-hours sessions occurring [1] - U.S. equity futures are experiencing notable declines, with E-mini S&P 500 futures down approximately 0.7% to 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures down between 1% and 1.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sliding by about 0.6% to 0.7% [2] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries, effective February 1, which could escalate to 25% by June 1 if no agreement is reached regarding the U.S. acquisition of Greenland [3] - European leaders are considering retaliatory measures, including activating the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, in response to the tariff threats [3] Safe-Haven Assets - Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, with gold futures surging to a record high above $4,670 an ounce and silver futures reaching a new record above $94 an ounce [4] Global Market Performance - European equity markets are broadly lower, with the STOXX Europe 600 index down approximately 0.9%, Germany's DAX declining by 1.1%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.3% [5] - Asian markets show mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 dipping by 0.7% to 0.8%, while China's economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, despite disappointing retail sales figures [6] Upcoming Market Events - Key economic data and corporate earnings reports are expected to influence market sentiment upon the reopening of U.S. markets [7] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and a further estimate of third-quarter GDP growth are scheduled for release, which will be vital for assessing the U.S. economy [8] Earnings Season - The fourth-quarter earnings season is underway, with major companies such as Netflix, Intel, Visa, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and NextEra Energy set to report their results [10] Major Stock News - BRC Group Holdings reported a significant turnaround with a net income of $89.1 million in Q3, contrasting with a loss in the same period last year [14] - Goldman Sachs shares increased by 4.6% due to record-setting equity trading revenue [14] - European defense stocks are gaining amidst geopolitical tensions, while European car manufacturers are seeing declines due to fears of increased U.S. tariffs [14]

Core Insights - Munro Global Growth Fund reported a return of -0.7% for the December quarter of 2025, with long positions contributing positively while short positions, hedging, and currencies detracted from performance [1] - The global equity markets performed well in 2025, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 2.4% and 2.3% respectively during the quarter [1] Company Performance - Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) was highlighted as a key detractor from the Fund's performance, with its stock experiencing a one-month return of 7.54% and a 52-week gain of 21.36% [2] - Oracle's stock closed at $193.61 on January 14, 2026, with a market capitalization of $556.267 billion [2] - Concerns arose regarding Oracle's ability to fund its aggressive spending plans, particularly due to its close ties with OpenAI, which is currently generating limited revenue compared to its spending plans [3] Financial Metrics - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Oracle reported total revenues of $16.1 billion, reflecting a 14% increase compared to the same quarter last year [4] - Despite Oracle's potential, the analysis suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

The “buy America” narrative had started to evolve again with the US dollar growing since the beginning of the first week of 2026, and stock indices moving higher, especially DAX (German index), which is being driven by rising military expenses and defensive stocks such as Rheinmetall, which had grown for more than 20% in 2026 alone, and for around 150% in 2025. The trend for defensive stocks will probably be dominant for the upcoming weeks and months, given the development of geopolitical trends: the US ...

Core Viewpoint - Rolls-Royce shares have reached record highs this year, driven by its defense exposure, strong power systems business, and a broader FTSE 100 rally [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Rolls-Royce shares have hit fresh record highs every trading day this year, reflecting a nearly 1,200% gain over the past five years [1] - Shares rose as much as 1.2% in early trading, building on a 10% rise in 2026 [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The defense segment accounts for about 25% of Rolls-Royce's underlying revenue, which showed minimal year-on-year growth in the last reported half-year results [3] - The company is not solely a defense firm, indicating diversification in its business model [3] Group 3: Market Context - Rolls-Royce is trailing behind other European defense stocks like Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Saab, and BAE Systems amid rising geopolitical tensions [2] - The geopolitical landscape has been influenced by significant events, including a large-scale U.S. attack on Venezuela and discussions regarding Greenland [2]

Geopolitics can turn yesterday’s “watch list” into tomorrow’s “must‑own” theme in a single weekend. President Trump’s Venezuela operation, which saw Nicolás Maduro and his wife seized in a lightning operation, has drawn sharp condemnation from Beijing and Moscow (among other countries), with both capitals warning against unilateral U.S. regime‑change tactics in their strategic backyard.​ That same White House is again talking openly about bringing Greenland under U.S. control, citing its Arctic location, ...

Oil Market - Brent crude increased by 2% to $61.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 1.8% to $57.01 per barrel, following a decline in US crude oil stockpiles by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a rise [1][7]. Retail Sector - Tesco's shares fell by 6.5% despite achieving a 10-year high in market share in the UK, while Associated British Foods, owner of Primark, saw a 13% decline in shares due to weaker-than-expected sales [2][3]. Defence Sector - BAE Systems' shares surged by up to 7% after President Trump announced plans to increase the US defence budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, adding over £4 billion to its market value [6][40]. - UK defence stocks, including Babcock and Rolls Royce, saw significant gains, with nearly £7 billion invested in early trading following Trump's military spending pledge [53][41]. - European defence stocks also rose, with notable increases in companies like Rheinmetall and Airbus, reflecting investor confidence in increased government spending on defence [40][55]. Economic Indicators - A major credit rating agency predicts the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates two more times this year due to a slowdown in the jobs market, with expectations of a decrease from the current range of 3.75% to 3% [19]. - The US trade deficit fell to its lowest level since 2009, dropping 39% to $29.4 billion in October, attributed to a $11 billion decrease in imports [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Czechoslovak Group (CSG) is considering an initial public offering (IPO) to float around 15% of its shares, aiming to finance future acquisitions in a rapidly growing defense sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - CSG is recognized as Europe's fastest-growing defense firm, with significant annual revenue growth in a global arms market projected to be worth $2.7 trillion in 2024 [2] - The company is in discussions with banks, including BNP Paribas, Jefferies, JPMorgan, and UniCredit, regarding the potential IPO [3] Group 2: IPO Details - The decision on whether to proceed with the IPO, likely to be held in Amsterdam, is expected to be made in the near future [4] - The proposed IPO size of 15% has not been previously reported, indicating a strategic move to attract investor interest [2][3] Group 3: Valuation Insights - CSG's potential valuation could range between 34 billion and 50 billion euros based on comparisons with German defense giant Rheinmetall, before applying any discounts [5] - If valued close to the sector average, CSG would be worth approximately 22 billion euros [5] - Rheinmetall's enterprise value is significantly higher than the industry median, which may influence CSG's expected valuation [6]

Market Performance - European markets closed positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.94% and notable gains in the U.K.'s FTSE 100 (0.54%), Germany's DAX (1.34%), and France's CAC 40 (0.2%) [2] - Defense, technology, and mining sectors were key drivers of the market's upward movement, influenced by geopolitical tensions and upcoming economic data [1] Sector Highlights - In the U.K. market, mining stocks performed well, with Antofagasta and Endeavour Mining rising 6.25% and 6.1%, respectively, while other miners like Fresnillo and Anglo American also saw gains [3] - German defense and technology stocks like Rheinmetall (nearly 10% increase) and Infineon (4.8% increase) showed strong performance, while auto stocks faced declines [5] - French market saw Eurofins Scientific rallying about 8%, with other companies like Thales and Bureau Veritas also gaining [6] Declines in Specific Companies - Several companies in the U.K. market, including Admiral Group and British American Tobacco, closed down by 2% to 3% [4] - In Germany, auto stocks such as Volkswagen and BMW lost between 2.3% and 3.1% [5] - French companies like Danone and Renault experienced losses ranging from 1% to 2.3% [6] Economic Indicators - UK mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 64,500 in November, indicating a decrease in future borrowing, while remortgaging approvals increased [7]

Core Viewpoint - The capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has led to a surge in energy stocks, particularly for Chevron, which is poised to benefit from potential access to Venezuela's oil reserves, despite oil prices remaining relatively stable [1][3][8]. Energy Sector - Chevron's shares increased by 4.8%, being the only major US oil company currently operating in Venezuela [1]. - ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil, which exited Venezuela nearly 20 years ago, saw their shares rise by 5.3% and 2.4%, respectively [2]. - Brent crude oil futures initially fell about 2% but recovered to around $61 per barrel, while US futures for later delivery increased by 0.4% to approximately $58 [3]. Market Reactions - The overall energy sector experienced a rally, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.6% as investors reacted positively to the geopolitical developments [11]. - Analysts caution that even with potential easing of sanctions, it may take years to significantly boost Venezuelan oil exports, which could lead to lower prices over time [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The capture of Maduro has also influenced global defense stocks, with companies like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin seeing increases of 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively [7]. - Concerns about geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in gold prices, which increased by about 2.5% to $4,438.70, as investors sought safe-haven assets [7][10].