All right, joining us now to talk technicals ahead of a shortened uh trading week, Chris Lone, partner and chief market strategist at Strategus uh research partners. How's Trener. >> He's doing much better.>> He is. >> Yeah, really. So, >> give him our best.>> I certainly will. >> Christmas. Um >> interesting stuff.Yeah. That that you're talking about here. We you you say that the rotational tape has been persisting which makes you think 2026 this could be a a sign of it continuing which would be >> really ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for Rio Tinto, indicating confidence in the stock's potential and a positive outlook for the company's future performance [1][5]. Company Overview - Rio Tinto is a leading global mining group focused on finding, mining, and processing mineral resources, operating in segments such as iron ore, aluminum, copper, and diamonds [1]. - The company competes with other mining giants like BHP and Vale, highlighting its significant presence in the industry [1]. Stock Performance - At the time of the announcement, RIO's stock price was $76.02, with a slight increase to $75.99, reflecting a change of 0.17 or 0.22% [2]. - The stock has traded between $75.85 and $76.73 on the day, with a yearly high of $76.99 and a low of $51.67, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. - RIO's market capitalization is approximately $123.38 billion, underscoring its substantial presence in the mining sector [3]. Trading Activity - The trading volume for RIO is 1,930,571 shares, indicating active investor interest and reflecting the market's perception of the company's value [4].

Group 1: China's Influence in Africa - China has significantly invested in Africa over the past decade through the Belt and Road initiative, focusing on mining, infrastructure, and processing facilities, ensuring Chinese buyers have priority access to resources [1][6] - Africa possesses approximately 30% of the world's critical minerals, including cobalt, platinum, copper, and rare earths, essential for modern technologies such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [2][6] - By the first half of 2025, Chinese investment in African mining increased nearly 400% year-over-year, with mining projects now constituting 20% of all Chinese initiatives in Africa, up from 8% five years ago [7] Group 2: Shift in Global Financial Dynamics - The traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar in global commodity transactions is being challenged, as transactions can now be settled in Chinese yuan, bypassing the dollar entirely [3][10] - Standard Bank Group in South Africa has integrated with China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), allowing direct yuan settlements for mining companies and commodity traders across Africa [5][8] - Central banks globally are diversifying their reserves, with the dollar's share of global reserves dropping below 47%, while gold's share is rising towards 20%, indicating a shift in financial strategy [13][15] Group 3: Implications for Investment Strategies - As the dollar's monopoly on commodity pricing diminishes, the purchasing power of consumers is likely to decline, affecting everyday costs [4][19] - The financial landscape is changing, with capital moving towards gold and silver, which have seen significant price increases, while traditional equities like the S&P 500 have underperformed [16][18] - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios by increasing allocations to gold, silver, and mining stocks, while reducing exposure to long-term U.S. bonds, reflecting the changing dynamics in global finance [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. is expected to experience significant growth in gold equivalent ounces production due to earlier streaming investments, with key projects like Blackwater, Copper World, and Salobo driving this expansion through the end of the decade [1]. Group 1: Analyst Upgrades and Price Forecasts - RBC Capital Markets analyst Josh Wolfson upgraded Wheaton Precious Metals to Outperform from Sector Perform and increased the price forecast to $130 from $115 [2]. - The upgrade follows RBC's revised precious metals assumptions, indicating a more favorable environment for royalty and streaming companies after a sector-wide valuation reset [3]. Group 2: Growth Projections - Wolfson anticipates that Wheaton's existing stream deals will lead to clear production growth starting in 2026, with consistent annual increases projected from 2027 through 2031 without the need for additional investment [5]. - The estimated production for 2025 is 655,000 gold equivalent ounces, with a projected growth of over 45% by 2030, marking the strongest growth profile among large-cap royalty peers [5]. Group 3: Revenue and Asset Contributions - Wheaton's revenue mix is expected to benefit from rising silver prices, with approximately 37% of revenue linked to silver [6]. - Salobo is identified as the cornerstone asset, contributing around 38% of net asset value and EBITDA, with steady performance anticipated in 2026 [7]. Group 4: Project Pipeline - A diverse pipeline of projects is highlighted, including Blackwater, Copper World, El Domo, Fenix, Kone, Kurmuk, Platreef, Santo Domingo, and Spring Valley, as they progress through development and ramp-up phases [8]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Wolfson's price target of $130 is based on a 2.4x risk-weighted net asset value using a long-term gold price of $3,000 per ounce, alongside 24x projected sustainable free cash flow for 2025–2027 [9]. - Potential upside to $170 is noted at a $5,000 per ounce long-term gold price, with a downside to $85 at $2,500 per ounce [9].

Core Insights - Vale S.A. is a significant player in the global mining industry, primarily recognized for its iron ore production, with diversification into copper and nickel to mitigate market volatility [1][4] - RBC Capital has upgraded Vale's stock to "Outperform," indicating increased confidence in the company's performance [1][6] - Zacks Investment Research identifies Vale as a top momentum stock, suggesting strong long-term investment potential [2][6] Production and Financial Performance - Vale's stock has surged by 40%, attributed to record production numbers, with 94.4 million metric tons of iron ore produced in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly output since 2018 [3][6] - For the first nine months of 2025, Vale's production reached 245.7 million tons, positioning the company to meet or exceed its full-year target of 325 to 335 million tons [4] - The current stock price of Vale is $12.80, with a market capitalization of approximately $54.64 billion, reflecting dynamic market performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil is positioning itself as a leader in sustainable mining practices, particularly in the production of critical minerals essential for the global energy transition, following significant mining disasters that have raised safety and environmental concerns [3][5][7]. Group 1: Legislative and Policy Developments - The Brazilian Congress has initiated investigations into the mining sector, leading to new legislation aimed at improving safety and reducing environmental impacts [1][2]. - Congressman Zé Silva is advocating for the National Critical Minerals Policy, which aims to establish Brazil as a leader in sustainable critical minerals production [8][9]. - The proposed policy includes clear objectives and measurable indicators for the critical minerals sector, enhancing transparency and aligning with sustainability goals [9][10]. Group 2: Economic and Strategic Positioning - Brazil holds significant reserves of critical minerals, including 94% of the world's niobium, 22% of global graphite, 16% of nickel, and 17% of rare earth elements, positioning the country as a strategic supplier for the energy transition [6][7]. - The government is working to improve the business environment to help companies capitalize on rising global demand for critical minerals while promoting local processing [5][13]. Group 3: Industry Initiatives and Innovations - The private sector is actively participating in shaping sustainable mining policies, with the formation of Brazil's Critical Minerals Association to promote innovation and socio-environmental responsibility [14][16]. - Companies like Sigma Lithium are leading the way in sustainable practices, employing a "Quintuple Zero" approach that eliminates tailings dams and harmful emissions [17][19]. - Sigma's Grota do Cirilo project operates with 100% renewable energy and has a production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of lithium ore per year, with plans to double output [19]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Social Responsibility - Companies are investing in local communities as part of their sustainable development plans, including healthcare and education initiatives [20][21]. - Effective mining projects require engagement with all stakeholders, including local communities and governments, to ensure compliance and sustainability [21].

Core Insights - Zacks Premium offers various tools to help investors make informed decisions and enhance their confidence in the stock market [1] - The Zacks Style Scores provide a unique rating system for stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, aiding investors in selecting securities with high potential for market outperformance [2][3] Zacks Style Scores - Each stock is rated from A to F based on its value, growth, and momentum, with A being the highest score indicating a better chance of outperforming the market [3] - The Value Score identifies attractive and discounted stocks using financial ratios like P/E, PEG, and Price/Sales [4] - The Growth Score focuses on a company's financial health and future outlook, analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [5] - The Momentum Score helps investors capitalize on price trends by evaluating recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions [6] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines the Value, Growth, and Momentum Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for stock selection based on weighted styles [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +23.93% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7] - There are typically over 800 top-rated stocks available, making it essential for investors to utilize Style Scores to narrow down their choices [8] Stock Highlight: VALE S.A. - Vale S.A., a major mining company based in Brazil, has a market capitalization of approximately $53.5 billion and produces various minerals including iron ore and nickel [11] - Currently rated 3 (Hold) by Zacks, VALE has a VGM Score of B and a Momentum Style Score of A, with shares increasing by 4.2% over the past four weeks [12] - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 have increased the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.21 to $2.01 per share, with an average earnings surprise of +2% [12]

Core Insights - Vale reported a significant increase in iron ore production, achieving 94.4 million metric tons in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly output since 2018, and a total of 245.7 million tons for the first nine months, positioning the company to meet its annual target of 325 to 335 million tons [2][3] Production and Operational Performance - The increase in production is attributed to successful ramp-up at major sites like the S11D mine and improvements in operational reliability after previous disruptions [2] - Vale has effectively reduced its iron ore cash cost to approximately $21 per ton, enhancing its profitability even in a challenging market [4] - The company is shifting its focus to higher-grade iron ore, which commands better prices and is preferred by steel mills for its efficiency benefits [5] Market Dynamics and Demand Shifts - Despite weak global demand for steel and iron ore, particularly in China, Vale is targeting emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia, which are expected to absorb more high-grade ore exports [5][6] - The diversification of Vale's customer base is seen as a positive move, reducing reliance on traditional markets and aligning with long-term growth strategies [6] Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - The rise in Vale's stock is driven by strong operational performance, cost discipline, and a strategic shift towards high-grade ore, making the company more resilient to commodity price fluctuations [7] - Changing demand dynamics, especially from emerging economies, contribute to investor optimism regarding Vale's long-term growth potential [7] Future Opportunities - Potential growth opportunities for Vale include increased global infrastructure demand outside of China and advancements in its copper and nickel divisions, which align with trends in electrification and green energy [8] Risks and Challenges - Vale remains exposed to commodity price volatility, which could impact profitability despite its cost advantages [9] - A significant downturn in macroeconomic conditions, particularly in developing economies, could suppress demand for iron ore, which still constitutes a large portion of Vale's revenue [9]

Core Viewpoint - Total Energy Services has shown strong share price performance since the last analysis, indicating a potential opportunity for further investment consideration [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Total Energy Services is highlighted as a company of interest within the European small-cap investment space, focusing on a mix of dividend and growth stocks for a balanced portfolio [1]. - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas, led by a financial writer, emphasizes high-quality small-cap investment opportunities in Europe, aiming for capital gains and dividend income [1]. Group 2: Investment Position - The analyst currently holds a long position in Total Energy Services and is open to increasing this position if there is a market pullback, although such a scenario is deemed unlikely in the near term [3].

Core Insights - Vale has reported its highest production numbers in years, producing 94.4 million metric tons of iron ore in Q3 2025, the peak quarterly output since 2018, and is on track to achieve or surpass its full-year goal of 325–335 million tons [2][3] Production and Operational Performance - The company has successfully ramped up production at major sites like the S11D mine and improved operational reliability after previous disruptions [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, Vale's production totaled 245.7 million tons, indicating strong operational recovery and rebuilding of investor confidence [2][3] Diversification and Market Strategy - Vale is expanding beyond iron ore, with its copper and nickel divisions gaining traction, reducing dependence on iron ore [3] - The company has shifted its production focus toward higher-grade iron ore, which commands better prices and is preferred by steel mills, enhancing its competitive advantage [4][5] Market Dynamics and Demand Shifts - Global demand for steel and iron ore remains weak, particularly in traditional markets like China, but new demand hubs are emerging in India and Southeast Asia [5][6] - Vale's strategic transition to a more diversified customer base resonates with investors seeking long-term stability and growth opportunities [6] Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - The rise in Vale's stock reflects enhanced operational performance, strong production figures, cost discipline, and a shift to high-grade ore, improving margins and resilience to commodity price fluctuations [7] - Changing demand dynamics, particularly from emerging economies, provide optimism for sustained long-term growth [7] Future Opportunities - Increased global infrastructure demand, especially outside of China, could benefit Vale due to its high-grade ore and diversified production [8] - Advancements in copper and nickel could open new growth avenues, linking Vale to global trends like electrification and green-energy supply chains [8] Risks and Challenges - Vale remains vulnerable to commodity price volatility, which could impact profitability despite cost advantages [9] - A significant macroeconomic downturn in developing economies could suppress demand, and iron ore still constitutes a considerable portion of revenue, making it susceptible to cyclical fluctuations [9]