All right, let's take another look at the futures. Um, we are moving closer to the flatline. The Dow futures right now only down by about seven points.I'd like to take a look at Home Depot and see how that has impacted things. It's the Dow component out with earnings and initially it was down, still down by about 4/10en of a percent, but we are looking at the Dow futures improve somewhat. Um, joining us right now to talk about what she's seeing in the markets is Joanne Feny.She's a partner and portfolio man ...

Why don't we start off with that Intel Soft Bank news. We saw the moves for Intel and for SoftBank. SoftBank moving lower on that news.What do you make of this when we're seeing investors kind of going into a company that a lot of people considered troubled and has one big red flag. They haven't found a big customer for their foundry or chip manufacturing business. >> Uh well, you hit the nail on the head, Frank.And this is a company that really needs investment because they are behind TSMC to such a great ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the context of AI supply chain updates and investment opportunities in the semiconductor sector in Asia [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry view has been upgraded to "Attractive" for the second half of 2025, with a preference for AI-related semiconductors over non-AI counterparts [1][3]. - Concerns regarding semiconductor tariffs and foreign exchange impacts are diminishing, leading to expectations of further sector re-rating [1][3]. - Key investment themes for 2026 are being previewed, indicating a proactive approach to future market conditions [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the AI semiconductor space include TSMC, Winbond, Alchip, Aspeed, MediaTek, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, Himax, and ASMPT [6]. - Non-AI recommendations include Novatek, OmniVision, Realtek, NAURA Tech, AMEC, ACMR, Silergy, SG Micro, SICC, and Yangjie [6]. - Companies under "Equal Weight" or "Underweight" include UMC, ASMedia, Nanya Tech, Vanguard, WIN Semi, and Macronix [6]. Market Dynamics - AI demand is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, which is spreading across various verticals beyond the semiconductor industry [6]. - The recovery in the semiconductor sector in the second half of 2025 may be impacted by tariff costs, with historical data indicating that a decline in semiconductor inventory days is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [6]. - The domestic GPU supply chain's sufficiency is questioned, particularly in light of DeepSeek's cheaper inferencing capabilities and Nvidia's B30 shipments potentially diluting the market [6]. Long-term Trends - The long-term demand drivers include technology diffusion and deflation, with expectations that "price elasticity" will stimulate demand for tech products [6]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a prolonged downcycle in mature node foundry and niche memory due to increased supply from China [6]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - TSMC's estimated revenue from AI semiconductors is projected to account for approximately 34% of its total revenue by 2027 [20]. - The report includes a detailed valuation comparison across various semiconductor segments, highlighting P/E ratios, EPS growth, and market capitalization for key companies [7][8]. Foreign Exchange Impact - The appreciation of the TWD against the USD could negatively impact gross margins and operating profit margins for companies like TSMC, UMC, and others, with a 1% appreciation translating to a 40bps GM downside [30]. - Despite these concerns, the overall structural profitability of TSMC is not expected to be significantly affected [30]. Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry is positioned for growth, particularly in AI segments, with a favorable outlook for the second half of 2025 and beyond. Investors are encouraged to consider the evolving landscape and potential opportunities within this sector [1][3][6].

AI and Digital Infrastructure - The "Stargate" project, potentially valued at $500 billion, is considered a real development, involving numerous tech companies, though its full realization remains to be seen [1] - The US government views investment in digital infrastructure positively, aiming to maintain a leading position in this area, similar to having a strategic petroleum reserve, especially given the proliferation of AI [3] - The productivity improvements from AI are still in the early phases of discovery, with potential challenges for the entry-level workforce and the need for training and experience to validate AI outputs [5] - Digital infrastructure is attracting investor interest beyond chips and servers, extending to real estate and industrials providing power and cooling for data centers, all related to the AI theme [13] Geopolitics and Trade - The tariff strategy is reportedly compelling foreign-owned companies like TSMC and Foxconn to establish production in the US [6] - Nvidia views China as a significant total addressable market of $15 billion to $50 billion, emphasizing the importance of American technology maintaining a presence there [7] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by inflation and unemployment figures [9] - The current Fed target rate of 45% feels restrictive, with a belief that a rate closer to 3% to 35% would be more appropriate in normal times [10][11] - Lower interest rates could aid cyclical companies in refinancing, benefiting industrials and real estate investment trusts [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating on the Asia AI semi and server supply chain, with all top picks rated as Buy [3][7][25]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on AI semiconductors and servers, despite a worsened risk-reward scenario compared to April 2025. The demand, supply, and catalysts are expected to favor AI growth into 2026 [3][7][30]. - Hyperscalers are increasingly optimistic about AI, with rising capital expenditure (capex) plans projected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2025-26 [7][10][30]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion appears more disciplined than in the past, which may impact customer behaviors and the GPU/ASIC supply chain dynamics [6][30][39]. Summary by Sections AI Semi Forecast - The AI semi revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised to 55% year-on-year growth, up from approximately 30% previously, with an introduction of a 20% growth forecast for 2027 [8][39]. - nVidia is expected to maintain a 60% CoWoS capacity booking at TSMC in 2026, which may hinder ASIC growth [8][41]. Server Forecast - The forecast for nVidia's GB rack shipments has been raised from 20.1k units to 22.2k units for 2025, with an introduction of a 46k unit estimate for 2026 [9][30]. - Global server revenue growth is projected at 53% and 28% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with AI server revenue growth rates at 76% and 40% [9][10]. Cloud Capex Uplift - The consensus for the top five US CSPs' capex growth has been revised up from 20% to 55% year-on-year, aligning with the expected growth in nVidia's datacenter sales [10][13]. - Policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to incentivize CSPs to invest more in capex [10][13][30]. Stocks for Action - Key stocks recommended for action include TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, and others, all rated as Buy, with significant upside potential noted [25][20][29]. - The report highlights that AI ODMs are attractive in valuations, with specific recommendations for Wiwynn, Wistron, and Quanta based on their expected performance in the upcoming quarters [20][29]. Structural Growth Trends - The report identifies structural growth trends in PCB/CCL, power, cable, and thermal solutions, with significant upgrades expected in components and architecture from 2H26 to 2027 [21][23][27].

Group 1 - TSMC is identified as a top long-term investment due to its critical role in the AI sector, likened to selling shovels during a gold rush [1] - The company has a significant competitive advantage, or "moat," that positions it favorably against competitors in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 2 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in TSMC shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and insights, emphasizing a focus on growth stocks and AI integration [1][2]

Intel's Challenges and Needs - Intel faces technological and customer acquisition challenges, not just financial ones [1] - Intel needs external capital infusion, whether from customers or the government, to secure its foundry for the long term [6] - Intel requires tens of billions of dollars to reach 14nm production, in addition to its own investment and customer contributions [6] - Intel needs to secure customer wins to build confidence, even though its technology is considered good on paper [8] - Intel's capital needs are at the root of its current situation [9] Government and Industry Perspectives - The U S government should support a U S company like Intel to make leading-edge chips for national security reasons [3] - The U S government taking equity in Intel could incentivize others to support and buy from them [7] - Tariffs or regulations could encourage customers to use Intel, but winning on technological merit is preferable [11] - TSMC is unlikely to bring leading-edge technology to the U S, making Intel the best bet for advanced chip manufacturing in the U S [10] Potential Solutions and Considerations - A combination of private equity and government investment in Intel makes sense to protect that investment [11] - Structuring a government investment in a fair way, such as divesting shares or paying back the investment, is crucial [12][13] - The government's involvement in investments is very tricky [13] - Intel's stock has increased 27% over the course of five days [4]

Talk of a US government taking an equity stake in Intel sounds dramatic, no doubt. But for investors, it doesn't solve the company's core issue, which is catching up in advanced chip manufacturing. In July, Lip Bhutan told employees Intel's advanced manufacturing would only move forward with quote confirmed customer commitments and quote no more blank checks.It was a direct signal to Washington. Without outside orders, Intel wouldn't build. That message landed after 10 also met with President Trump just thi ...

What's so interesting, Islam research came out a week or so ago and look really buoyant about future growth and revenue. Very different for this CHIP equipment company. You are pointing out the debate that is waging and all the sell side reports in my inbox right now.Right. I mean, on the call last night, the narrative from the company was that China demand is worse in some of our largest customers that are holding off due to kind of just general economic uncertainty, tariffs and all that. But there's also ...

As the world's largest pure-play foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. TSM — often abbreviated as TSMC — plays a critical role in the global semiconductor value chain. Late last year, International Data Corp stated that the company could expand its market share in the foundry industry to 36% by the end of this year, rising from 33% in 2024.Not surprisingly, TSM stock has responded well to the broader enthusiasm, backed by tremendous demand for artificial intelligence. On a year-to-date basis, TSM ...