证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2026 01 23 年 月 日 制造 EDA 是集成电路生产过程中的核心环节。一个完整的集成电路设计 和制造流程主要包括工艺平台开发、集成电路设计和集成电路制造三个阶 段。集成电路企业需要使用 EDA 工具完成设计和制造的过程。制造 EDA 是集成电路生产过程中的核心环节。在晶圆厂 包括晶圆代工厂、 IDM 制 造部门等）工艺平台开发阶段，通过制造 EDA 建立半导体器件的模型并通 过 PDK 或建立 IP 和标准单元库等方式提供给集成电路设计企业 包括芯 片设计公司、半导体 IP 公司、IDM 设计部门等）；在晶圆生产阶段，从版 图到掩模的数据转换过程中，需要制造 EDA 对光刻过程中的光学邻近效 应进行补偿和修正、建立详细的结构器件模型、良率修正等。根据制造 EDA 所解决的技术类别不同，制造 EDA 可分为六大部分：工艺平台开发阶段， 可分为工艺与器件仿真工具 TCAD）、器件建模及验证工具、工艺设计套 件工具 PDK）；晶圆生产制造阶段，可分为计算光刻软件、可制造性设 计 DFM）、良率控制工具，其中计算光刻软件是晶圆生产阶段的核心工 具。根据我 ...

Key Takeaways CDNS launched the sixth-gen Tensilica HiFi iQ DSP, built on a new architecture for voice AI.Versus HiFi 5s, CDNS says HiFi iQ doubles compute, delivers up to 8x AI gains and over 25% energy savings.CDNS says HiFi iQ can run SLMs and LLMs on-DSP, supports key codecs and reaches lead customers in early 2026.Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) has unveiled the Tensilica HiFi iQ DSP IP, the sixth-generation addition to its widely adopted HiFi DSP family, marking a significant step forward for next ...

Cadence logo over EDA screen showing chip layout, highlighting AI-driven semiconductor design software. Key Points The company integrates generative AI into its design suite to drastically improve productivity and power efficiency for semiconductor engineers. Massive demand for custom silicon from major technology firms is driving record backlog orders for the Palladium and Protium hardware emulation systems. Strategic acquisitions enable the company to expand beyond chip design into full-system analys ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，随着人工智能(AI)支出的持续强劲和周期性复苏趋势的加 速，预计半导体行业在2026年有望迎来又一个表现优异的年份，行业整体将继续跑赢大盘。 以Harlan Sur为首的分析师在报告中表示，预计在即将到来的2025年第四季度财报季(并展望更广泛的 2026年)中，多数公司将交出符合或超预期的业绩，并对2026年第一财季及全年给出积极指引。这将推 动已持续数季的积极盈利上调趋势延续，为股价表现提供支撑。第三季度，约70%以上的覆盖公司实现 了盈利上修，该趋势预计在第四季度财报季将进一步加速。 另外，摩根大通认为，支撑AI相关基础设施强劲增长的基本面依然稳固。推理需求激增与AI工作负载 算力强度提升共同驱动需求，而2026年相关供应链(尤其是先进制程晶圆代工和存储及闪存领域)产能已 基本被预定。除了效率提升带来的短期上行可能外，基于强劲订单和积压订单的2027年前景展望也将为 股价提供支撑。该行预计AI加速器市场总规模较此前预期有显著上行空间，在2025年约2000亿美元投 入的基础上，未来数年该领域年复合增长率将达50%，增量支出将遍及半导体全价值链。 从周期性终端市场 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the EDA sector is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The EDA industry is a crucial tool for semiconductor design, with a global market size of approximately $15.7 billion in 2024, representing only 2.5% of the semiconductor industry valued at $631 billion, yet it supports a multi-trillion dollar digital economy [1][14] - The Chinese EDA market is expected to grow from 19.3 billion yuan to 35.4 billion yuan between 2025 and 2027, with a CAGR of 35.4%, significantly outpacing the global growth rate of 7.84% [1][16] - The global EDA market is highly concentrated, dominated by three major players: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA, which have built their market positions through decades of systematic mergers and acquisitions [2] - The domestic EDA industry in China is experiencing rapid growth but faces structural bottlenecks, including fragmented competition, a shortage of high-end talent, and barriers to entry due to established international ecosystems [2][3] - Policy direction is shifting from fragmented competition to platform collaboration, with government support aimed at promoting integration and upgrading the industry [2] Summary by Sections EDA Industry Characteristics - EDA is a foundational tool for the trillion-dollar semiconductor industry, with its market size rapidly expanding in China [8][9] - The industry has high capital requirements and a significant demand for skilled talent, with a long training cycle [21] - High barriers to entry and strong binding among full-process platform companies enhance competitive advantages [22][25] Global EDA Development History - The rise of EDA in the U.S. is attributed to high investment and strategic government support, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [27][28] - The U.S. government has historically invested in EDA as a strategic pillar for enhancing semiconductor and defense competitiveness [28][29] Current State of China's EDA Industry - The Chinese EDA market is growing rapidly but is hindered by fragmentation, capital concentration, talent shortages, and ecological barriers [3][16] - The domestic EDA industry is at a critical juncture for breakthrough and integration, with increasing policy support [3] Investment Recommendations - The EDA sector is seen as being at a pivotal moment for domestic replacement, with increasing policy support and active consolidation among leading platform companies [3] - Recommended companies for long-term investment include Huada Jiutian, Gai Lun Electronics, and Guangli Micro [3]

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) has delivered breakeven returns over the past six months, contrasting with broader enthusiasm in the AI and semiconductor sectors [1] - The company is a leader in electronic system design, providing software, hardware, and IP to transform design concepts into reality [2] Competitive Landscape - Competitive pressures from Synopsys and macroeconomic volatility are key concerns, with Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys expected to intensify competition [3] - Despite these pressures, CDNS has outperformed the Computer Software industry, which has seen a decline of 13.7% over the same period [6] Business Performance - CDNS ended Q3 with a $7 billion backlog and is experiencing strong demand driven by AI-led initiatives in EDA and hardware systems [8] - The core EDA business is growing due to AI-driven design solutions, with significant demand from AI and HPC clients [10] Financial Health - In Q3, CDNS reported revenues of $1.339 billion, a 10.2% year-over-year increase, with operating cash flow of $311 million and free cash flow of $277 million [14] - The company has a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of $2.753 billion and long-term debt of $2.479 billion [14] Strategic Initiatives - CDNS is pursuing an inorganic growth strategy, acquiring companies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [15] - The company is actively repurchasing shares, with $200 million in buybacks in Q3 and plans for another $200 million in Q4 [16] Future Outlook - Revenue estimates for 2025 are projected between $5.262 billion and $5.292 billion, with operating cash flow expected to be between $1.65 billion and $1.75 billion [17] - CDNS is well-positioned to benefit from increased R&D spending in AI-driven automation, capitalizing on the AI super cycle [12]

Company Overview - Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is headquartered in San Jose, California, and has a market cap of $85.2 billion. The company provides electronic design automation (EDA) software technology and various professional services globally [1]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect CDNS to report a profit of $1.55 per share on a diluted basis for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, which represents a 4% increase from $1.49 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year, analysts anticipate an EPS of $5.66, reflecting a 25.8% increase from $4.50 in fiscal 2024. EPS is projected to rise by 15.2% year over year to $6.52 in fiscal 2026 [3]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, CDNS stock has underperformed the S&P 500 Index, which gained 16.7%, with CDNS shares only increasing by 6.6%. The stock also lagged behind the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 25.2% gain during the same period [4]. Recent Financial Results - On October 27, 2025, CDNS shares rose by 1.8% following the announcement of Q3 results, where the adjusted EPS of $1.93 surpassed Wall Street expectations of $1.79. The company's revenue for the quarter was $1.34 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.33 billion. CDNS expects full-year adjusted EPS to be between $7.02 and $7.08, with revenue projected between $5.26 billion and $5.29 billion [5]. Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion among analysts on CDNS stock is bullish, with a "Strong Buy" rating overall. Out of 23 analysts, 17 recommend a "Strong Buy," one suggests a "Moderate Buy," and five give a "Hold." The average analyst price target for CDNS is $386.81, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from current levels [6].

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) has launched the first LPDDR5X 9600Mbps memory IP system for enterprise and data center applications, in partnership with Microsoft, marking a significant advancement in memory architecture [2][9] - The new solution integrates Cadence's LPDDR5X IP with Microsoft's RAIDDR error correction code (ECC) technology, providing high performance, low power consumption, and enhanced reliability [2][3] Product Development - The LPDDR5X system supports 40-bit channels and delivers 9600 Mbps performance while maintaining low power usage and enterprise-grade reliability features similar to DDR5 [5] - Microsoft's RAIDDR ECC technology enhances the reliability of the LPDDR5X system, enabling data center architects to deploy this memory solution at scale without compromising performance or power efficiency [4][3] Market Trends - The demand for LPDDR5X is increasing in data centers due to its energy efficiency and performance in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads [3][8] - Long-term trends such as 5G, hyperscale computing, and autonomous driving are driving design wins for Cadence, while the rise of Generative, Agentic, and Physical AI is increasing computing needs [8] Competitive Landscape - Cadence faces competitive pressure from rivals like Synopsys and Siemens, which may impact pricing power and margins [11] - The company's focus on AI solutions increases exposure to competition and the cyclical nature of AI infrastructure spending [11] Strategic Initiatives - Cadence is expanding its portfolio with next-generation memory IP, including LPDDR6 memory IP expected to operate at 14.4Gbps by July 2025, positioning itself as a key player in future memory subsystems [7] - Collaborations with major players like Qualcomm and NVIDIA are aimed at developing next-generation AI chips for training and inference [8][10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Semiconductor Industry**: The AI spending environment remains solid, while traditional markets such as PCs and smartphones are under pressure due to increased input costs. Companies with strong exposure to sustainable spenders like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) are expected to perform better than others in the digital semiconductor landscape [1][1]. Company-Specific Insights Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) - **Rating**: Buy - **Growth Potential**: Cadence is expected to grow through various vectors in the semiconductor industry, driven by the diffusion of custom chip design among a broader customer base. Key focus areas for investors include: 1. End market momentum in Core EDA, IP, and System Design & Analysis 2. Customer adoption rates of AI offerings 3. Current pace of ASIC design starts across the industry [2][8][11]. - **Financial Estimates**: Expected to deliver approximately 1% revenue upside in the quarter, with guidance for 11%-13% YoY revenue growth for 2026. Anticipated operating margin expansion of about 150 basis points and 15% EPS growth [10][10]. - **Valuation Concerns**: Positioning is somewhat negative due to a significant valuation premium compared to peers like Synopsys (SNPS) [2][8]. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - **Rating**: Neutral - **Market Sentiment**: The bar for stock price outperformance is considered high, with expectations lowered since November. The stock is priced for OpenAI deployments to begin late in 2026, creating a challenging tactical setup due to low visibility on deployment timing and gross margin trajectory [4][16]. - **Financial Guidance**: Consensus expectations for 1Q guidance are elevated, and a potential miss, particularly in Datacenter revenue, could pressure the stock. EPS estimates for 4Q and 1Q are $1.30 and $1.16, respectively, which are below consensus [17][18]. - **Key Focus Areas**: Investors will be looking for guidance on Datacenter GPU revenue, updates on OpenAI deployment timelines, and margin expectations [18][19]. ARM Holdings (ARM) - **Rating**: Sell - **Investor Focus**: Investors are expected to concentrate on FY4Q royalty revenue guidance and details regarding ARM's chip manufacturing strategy. There is a balanced positioning among investors at current levels [3][23]. - **Financial Estimates**: Expected to have an in-line quarter with modestly above estimates on Licensing but below on Royalty revenue for FY3Q and FY4Q [24][25]. - **Key Metrics**: The company is anticipated to provide insights into the sustainability of AI spending and its growing presence in the datacenter market [26][26]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor industry is experiencing a divergence in performance based on exposure to AI spending versus traditional markets. Companies with strong AI offerings are likely to outperform those reliant on traditional markets [1][1]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a cautious sentiment among investors regarding the timing and impact of AI deployments, particularly for AMD, which could affect stock performance in the near term [4][16]. Conclusion The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex landscape with solid AI spending but pressures in traditional markets. Companies like Cadence are positioned for growth, while AMD and ARM face challenges that could impact their stock performance. Investors are advised to monitor key metrics and guidance closely as they assess potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is transitioning towards multi-die and chiplet-based architectures due to increasing chip complexity in AI, data centers, and high-performance computing workloads [2] - Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) has launched the Chiplet Spec-to-Packaged Parts ecosystem, aiming to mainstream chiplet designs and address engineering complexity and integration risks [2][9] - The ecosystem includes partnerships with major companies like Arm and Samsung Foundry, indicating readiness for real-world production [3][9] Industry Trends - There is a broad demand for AI-driven solutions, influenced by trends such as 5G, hyperscale computing, and autonomous driving, leading to increased design activity in the semiconductor sector [5] - The focus on Generative AI, Agentic AI, and Physical AI is driving exponential growth in computing demand and semiconductor innovation [5] Company Developments - Cadence's AI-focused portfolio includes the JedAI platform, leveraging NVIDIA's compute capacity, and aims to enter new markets like Life Sciences with its OpenEye software [6] - The company is expanding partnerships with foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Intel, and Arm Holdings, positioning itself to benefit from increased R&D spending in AI automation [6] Competitive Landscape - Cadence faces stiff competition from other EDA companies such as Synopsys and Siemens AG, which may impact pricing power and margins [7] - Increased R&D spending is necessary for Cadence to remain competitive, particularly in verification and digital design products, but this may hinder operating margin expansion [7] Financial Performance - CDNS has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with shares gaining 3.9% over the past year, compared to the Zacks Computer-Software industry's growth of 7.6% [10]