VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY, I'M VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF.RECORD HIGHS I HAD A BIG TECH EARNINGS. AN EARLY BOOST TO THE MARKET ON A HIGH DEMAND. THE DOLLAR DESTABILIZING A BIT AFTER ITS WORST PERFORMANCE IN FOUR YEARS.PRESIDENT TRUMP BRUSHING OFF WOES, SPECULATION OF A LONGER-TERM DECLINE. CHAIR POWELL IS SURE TO GET QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE FED TRADERS PRICE IN A MORE DOVISH POLICY SHIFT UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP. LET'S LOOK AT THESE MARKETS BECAUSE WE ARE IN THE GREEN.TWO S ...

>> LIVE FROM LONDON. THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK EUROPE. I’M LIZZY BURDEN.DOING GREAT. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE IS UNCONCERNED AS THE DOLLAR HITS ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY FOUR YEARS. THE FED EXPECTED TO KEEP RATES ON HOLD.ASML REPORT. THE CHIP MACHINE GIANT. A KEY BELLWETHER FOR THE AI BOOM.THE FRENCH FINANCE MINISTER WARNS AGAINST UNILATERAL MEASURES AFTER CLASHES WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP. WHO NEEDS A FED CUT WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SAYING THAT A WEAKER DOLLAR IS GREAT. YES, THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX IS BACK ...

ASML plans about 1,700 job cuts mainly in its Technology and the IT organizations https://t.co/vcWNnRNiIw ...

我最新的供應鏈調查顯示，Carl Zeiss SMT (蔡司半導體) 為滿足ASML的強勁需求，將顯著擴增2027年EUV與較高ASP的浸潤式DUV光學系統產能分別約20-25% YoY與40-50% YoY，加上2026年EUV與DUV出貨優於預期，故預估ASML 2026與2027年營收將分別達到約380-400億與450-470億歐元，優於市場共識的340-360億與410-430億歐元。以下是優於市場共識的關鍵原因：1. 2026年關鍵動能：➢ 預估EUV與DUV出貨分別達67台與355台，優於共識的53-55台與310-320台。➢ 台積電因2nm強勁需求，接連兩次上修2026年EUV訂單，從最初的22台，於去年10月上修到25台，再到目前的28台。➢ ASML為滿足中國記憶體廠商的強勁需求，預計在4Q26推出新款浸潤式DUV NXT:1965i。此新款DUV由1980i系列降規而來，同時符合美國出口規範並更能滿足中國記憶體業者需求，將貢獻4Q26與2027年動能。2. 2027年關鍵動能：➢ 受益於強勁需求，2027年的EUV與浸潤式DUV目前已銷售一空，能否再提升出貨量取決於ASML的供應改善狀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand for chips, particularly due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The S&P 500 has only risen by 1% since the start of 2026, while Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA have outperformed with increases of 27.6%, 25.8%, and 24.6% respectively [1]. - Israeli companies Nova Ltd. and Camtek have seen stock increases of 38% and 34% respectively during the same period, with Nova achieving a market cap of $13.7 billion and Camtek at $6.6 billion [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Investment - The demand for semiconductor equipment is rising due to the accelerated development of AI, leading to increased investments in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE), which is expected to reach $160 billion this year, up from a previous forecast of $135 billion [4]. - There is a significant demand for memory chips, advanced packages, and processors to support data centers, alongside a shortage of production capacity, prompting increased investment budgets [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Cantor predict that the AI infrastructure investment cycle is just beginning and will accelerate between 2026 and 2028, positively impacting major companies like KLA, Lam Research, and ASML [6]. - Cantor expects these companies to report improved orders and a positive outlook for 2026, supported by a strong AI computing cycle [6]. Group 4: Recommendations and Price Targets - Cantor maintains a balanced risk/reward ratio for Nova ahead of upcoming reports, recommending it for long-term investment, while suggesting a neutral stance on Camtek due to uncertainties regarding order timing [9]. - Bank of America has raised price targets for Nova to $450 and for Camtek to $160, indicating confidence in their future performance [9].

>> LIVE FROM LONDON, THIS IS "BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE." ALL NECESSARY MEASURES. THE YEN EXTENDS GAINS AFTER JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER SAYS THE GOVERNMENT STANDS READY TO STOP THE CURRENCY SLIDE WITH SIGNS OF POSSIBLE BACKING FROM THE UNITED STATES. GOLD BREAKS ABOVE THE $5,000 ANNOUNCE LEVEL FOR THE FIRST TIME AS GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY FUELS INVESTOR FLIGHT FROM SOVEREIGN BONDS OUT OF THE DOLLAR.PLUS, DEMOCRATS THREATENED TO BLOCK A SPENDING PASSAGE AMONG ESCALATING TENSIONS IN MINNESOTA, RISKING A PARTIA ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Netherlands market Core Insights - The Dutch economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, supported by consumption and government spending, while inflation has slowed to 2.8% in December 2025 [9] - Private equity (PE) deal activity in Q4 2025 was the weakest of the year, with limited US investor participation impacting dealmaking [10] - Venture capital (VC) deal value improved in 2025, with significant rounds raised by companies like Picnic and Perpetual Next, indicating a trend towards fewer but larger transactions [12][13] - The AEX index finished 2025 up by 8.3%, underperforming compared to other major indexes, largely due to its concentrated composition [15] Market Overview - The Netherlands recorded a deal value of €6.4 billion in Q4 2025, with a median deal size of €34.9 million and a year-to-date return of 8.3% [7] - The private equity fundraising continued to slow in 2025, with notable fund closures including Bencis raising €625 million and Nyver raising €335 million [11][12] - The venture capital fundraising remained low throughout 2025, although four of the five largest VC fund closes occurred in Q4, indicating a slight increase in market confidence [14] Private Equity Activity - PE exit activity was stronger in the second half of 2025, highlighted by Blackstone's sale of NIBC Bank for €960 million [11] - The report notes a higher proportion of add-on acquisitions relative to primary buyouts and growth deals in the Dutch PE market [10] Venture Capital Activity - The largest VC rounds in Q4 2025 included Picnic raising €430 million and Perpetual Next raising €207 million [12] - Two new unicorns were added in 2025: Destinus with a valuation of €1.5 billion and Framer at €1.7 billion [13] Public Equity Market - The AEX index's performance was hindered by weaker performances from technology and consumer-oriented stocks, despite a rebound in ASML shares [15] - Unilever's IPO of its ice cream business, The Magnum Ice Cream Company, marked the only public listing in Q4 2025, with a market cap of nearly €8 billion [15]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) and iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (ACWX) offer distinct investment strategies, with SPDW providing lower fees and higher yields, while ACWX offers broader non-U.S. equity exposure and a higher technology allocation [1][2]. Cost and Size Comparison - SPDW has an expense ratio of 0.03%, significantly lower than ACWX's 0.32% [3][10]. - As of January 9, 2026, SPDW's one-year return is 37.84%, compared to ACWX's 35.89% [3][10]. - SPDW has a dividend yield of 3.3%, higher than ACWX's 2.83% [3][10]. - Assets under management (AUM) for SPDW is $33.45 billion, while ACWX has $7.87 billion [3]. Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, SPDW has a maximum drawdown of -30.23%, slightly worse than ACWX's -30.03% [4]. - An investment of $1,000 would have grown to $1,304 in SPDW and $1,251 in ACWX over five years [4]. Holdings and Sector Allocation - ACWX holds 1,751 stocks, with a sector allocation of 25% in financial services, 15% in technology, and 15% in industrials [5]. - Major holdings in ACWX include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (3.9%), ASML (1.53%), and Tencent Holdings (1.4%) [5]. - SPDW focuses on developed markets, with a sector allocation of 23% in financial services, 19% in industrials, and 11% in technology [7]. - Key positions in SPDW include ASML (1.73%), Samsung (1.65%), and Roche (0.98%) [7]. Investment Implications - Investors seeking exposure to emerging markets and technology may prefer ACWX, particularly due to its holdings like TSMC, which has seen significant growth [12]. - Conversely, those looking for lower-cost access to developed markets and higher dividend yields may find SPDW more appealing [12].

Core Insights - The generative AI market is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a rise from $71.4 billion in 2025 to $890.6 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 43.4% [3] Group 1: Generative AI Overview - Generative AI differs from traditional AI as it creates content rather than merely analyzing it, with applications like ChatGPT demonstrating rapid user adoption [2] - The generative AI market is currently in a "hypergrowth" phase, presenting substantial investment opportunities [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investing in generative AI can be effectively achieved through thematic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide diversified exposure to the sector [4] - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF focuses on companies involved in semiconductor production, with top holdings including Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom, which are crucial for generative AI [6][7] - The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF offers a broader array of semiconductor stocks and is designed to provide equal exposure to both small- and large-cap stocks [10][12] - The iShares Semiconductor ETF targets U.S. companies in the semiconductor sector and has a market-cap weighted structure, with top holdings including Nvidia and Micron [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reported a strong quarter with $16 billion in profit and 35% year-over-year growth, positioning itself as a leader in the AI chip market, prompting analysts to raise price targets [1][2] Business Model Shift - TSMC is undergoing a fundamental shift in its business model, moving away from traditional revenue generation methods and customer reliance [2] - The company has implemented tiered price increases of 3-10% across its advanced nodes, reflecting its strategic pricing approach [3][4] Customer Segmentation - High-performance computing and AI customers face price increases near the 10% ceiling, while smartphone processor clients see hikes closer to 5%, indicating a bifurcation in TSMC's customer base [4][7] - Nvidia's CEO supports these price hikes, viewing TSMC's chips as underpriced, while Qualcomm and MediaTek face higher effective cost increases of 16% to 24% [5][6] Changing Dynamics with Apple - Apple's spending with TSMC is projected to grow from $2 billion in 2014 to $24 billion in 2025, but its share of TSMC's total revenue has decreased from 25% to 20% [10] - By late 2027, Nvidia is expected to consume more cutting-edge 3-nanometer wafers than Apple, marking a significant shift in TSMC's customer dynamics [10] Capacity Constraints - TSMC's advanced-node capacity is currently "about three times short" of customer demand, limiting its ability to meet market needs [14] - The company projects 30% revenue growth in 2026, driven by maximum output capacity rather than market demand [17] Future Challenges - The transition to 2-nanometer chips is expected to take longer than previous transitions, with projections suggesting a ramp-up period closer to three years [19] - TSMC's gross margin of 62.3% in Q4 is overshadowed by rising capital expenditures, which are growing at 32% year-over-year, potentially compressing return on invested capital [21][23] Investment Considerations - TSMC is viewed as a strong player in the technology sector, but the investment thesis has evolved, with the stock market pricing in an optimistic scenario that may not fully account for underlying risks [24][26] - Investors should monitor gross margin realization, utilization rates at new facilities, and customer dynamics to assess future performance [25]