铜周报：基本面支撑，铜价仍存韧性 2025-6-9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 供给端：当前铜矿加工费处于历史低位，铜矿供应持续偏紧。截至6月6日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-43美元/吨，4月底以来进口铜精 矿粗炼费（TC）持续位于持稳于-43美元/吨左右。5月电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加12.86%，国内精炼铜产量 稳定增加。 需求端：旺季过后下游需求转淡，截至6月5日，SMM电解铜制杆周度开工率环比下滑至74.87%，环比下滑1.03个百分点，铜价运 行依然坚挺，压制下游备货欲望。淡季来临市场预期悲观，下游铜管、铜板带开工率下滑，铜箔企业开工率小幅增长。 库存：截至6月6日，上海期货交易所铜库存10.74万吨，周环比1.52%。截止6月5日，国内铜社会库存14.88万吨，较节前5月29日 累库1.01万吨，环比 ...

Group 1: Joint Venture Announcement - Suzano S.A. and Kimberly-Clark Corporation are forming a $3.4 billion joint venture to manufacture consumer and professional tissue products, with Suzano owning 51% and Kimberly-Clark holding 49% [1][7] - The joint venture will be incorporated in the Netherlands and will operate 22 manufacturing facilities across 14 countries, with an annual tissue production capacity of approximately 1 million tons and projected net sales of $3.3 billion in 2024 [2][3][7] Group 2: Market and Employment Impact - The joint venture will market and distribute various tissue products in over 70 countries and is expected to create more than 9,000 job opportunities [3] - The transaction is anticipated to close in mid-2026, with Suzano set to pay $1.734 billion in cash at closing, subject to standard post-closing adjustments [4][7] Group 3: Suzano's Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Suzano reported net sales of $1.97 billion, an increase from $1.91 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, with adjusted earnings rising to 87 cents compared to 3 cents in the prior year [5] - Over the past year, Suzano's shares have increased by 5.9%, while the industry has seen an 18.4% growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - Aftermath Silver Ltd. has made a partial payment of US$1.5 million towards the acquisition of the Berenguela silver-copper-manganese project in Peru, ahead of the due date, which has resulted in a reduced balance owed to EMX Royalty Corp. [3][5] Group 1: Financial Transactions - The company has an option to acquire a 100% interest in the Berenguela project through agreements with SSR Mining Inc. and EMX Royalty Corp. [2] - Aftermath Silver's payment obligations total US$13 million, with the remaining payments summarized as follows: US$3 million paid on May 15, 2025; US$1.5 million paid in June 2025; and US$1.65 million due in November 2026 [5][7]. - A sliding-scale NSR royalty will be applied to all mineral production from the project, starting at 1.0% when silver prices are up to US$25 per ounce, and increasing to 1.25% when silver prices exceed US$25 and copper prices are above US$2 per pound [7]. Group 2: Project Development - The company is focusing on the Berenguela project and expects an updated NI43-101 mineral resource estimate to be completed soon [4]. - Recent drilling in the eastern part of Berenguela intersected 153 meters of mineralization, including 1.12% copper, 290 g/t silver, and 7% manganese [4]. Group 3: Company Background - Aftermath Silver is a Canadian junior exploration company focused on silver, aiming to deliver shareholder value through the discovery, acquisition, and development of quality silver projects in stable jurisdictions [9]. - The company has developed a pipeline of projects at various stages of advancement, selected based on growth and development potential [9].

Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti plc has reached a new 52-week high of $47.77 following the announcement of the sale of its interest in the Mineração Serra Grande mine to Aura Minerals Inc, which is aimed at optimizing its portfolio [1]. Financial Details of the Deal - The sale of Mineração Serra Grande S.A. to Aura will be for a cash consideration of $76 million, subject to working capital adjustments at closing. Additionally, AngloGold Ashanti will receive deferred payments equivalent to a 3% net smelter returns royalty on the mine's current mineral resources [2][7]. Strategic Decision - The MSG mine, located in Goiás, includes three mechanized underground mines and an open pit, with a dedicated metallurgical plant having an annual capacity of 1.5 million tons. Recent priorities have included stabilizing operations and decommissioning the legacy tailings storage facility [3]. Production and Cost Analysis - The MSG mine produced 80,000 ounces of gold in 2024 and 86,000 ounces in 2023. It is characterized as one of AngloGold Ashanti's higher-cost and lower-production operations, and the sale is expected to enhance capital allocation and operational efficiencies [4][7]. Transaction Details - The transaction will exclude subsidiaries of Mineração Serra Grande S.A. that hold non-core assets, which will be retained by AngloGold Ashanti and transferred out through a spin-off before closing. The deal is anticipated to close in the third quarter of 2025, pending closing conditions [5]. Stock Performance - AngloGold Ashanti's shares have increased by 100.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 42.9% [6].

Core Insights - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FQVLF) announced that its subsidiary Minera Panamá received government approval for its Preservation and Safe Management program at the Cobre Panamá mine, allowing the company to proceed with essential preservation and environmental measures [1][9] - The program will be funded through the export of 121,000 dry metric tons of copper concentrate stockpiled at the site, reinforcing FQVLF's commitment to sustainability and responsible resource management [2][9] - The company agreed to discontinue one arbitration proceeding and suspend another related to the Cobre Panamá mine, marking progress in resolving outstanding issues since the mine's shutdown in December 2023 [3][4] Company Operations - The Cobre Panamá mine was suspended following a Supreme Court ruling that deemed the operating contract unconstitutional, leading to a halt in operations due to a blockade affecting supply deliveries [5][6] - In December 2023, Panama's trade and industry ministry ordered the cessation of all activities related to the extraction and processing at the Cobre Panamá mine, which accounted for approximately 40% of FQVLF's revenues and 1.5% of the global copper supply in 2022 [7] Stock Performance - FQVLF's shares have increased by 16.8% over the past year, contrasting with a 26.2% decline in the industry [8]

Core Insights - Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is benefiting from asset optimization and business improvement initiatives, positioning the company for long-term growth and profitability [1][8] - The company faces challenges from merger-related costs, higher freight and chemical costs, labor shortages, and supply chain issues, which are expected to impact margins [2][14] Company Transformation - Since 2023, Smurfit Westrock has closed underperforming facilities, divested non-core assets, and streamlined operations to enhance efficiency and cost savings [1][7] - The merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock on July 5, 2024, is expected to deliver significant growth potential due to their complementary portfolios and geographic reach across 42 countries [3][4] Operational Developments - In Q1 2025, Smurfit Westrock invested in containerboard, corrugated, and consumer systems, expanding its Bag-in-Box offerings and upgrading mill systems for efficiency and environmental improvements [5][9] - The company has closed 32 packaging facilities and three mills since early 2023, with a capacity reduction of approximately 600,000 tons [7][8] Market Demand - There is a growing demand for sustainable, fiber-based packaging solutions, particularly in the beverage, healthcare, retail, and food sectors [9][10] - The rise in e-commerce activities is expected to further support demand for packaging solutions, with global e-commerce revenues projected to reach $4.32 trillion by 2025 [11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Smurfit Westrock's cost of sales increased by 173.9% year-over-year, with transaction and integration-related costs amounting to $395 million [12][13] - The company's stock has declined by 14.8% over the past six months, compared to an 8% decline in the industry [15]

Group 1: Core Transaction Details - Nexa Resources S.A. has signed a deal to sell ten Exclusive Prospecting Licenses (EPL) in Namibia to Midnab Resources, a subsidiary of Midas Minerals Ltd, as part of its portfolio optimization strategy [1][2] - The company will receive $3 million at closing, with an additional contingent payment of up to $7 million based on the achievement of certain development milestones [2] - Nexa will retain royalties on the project's future progress, and the deal is expected to close by December 31, 2025, subject to customary conditions [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Nexa Resources reported earnings of 16 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 9 cents, compared to a loss of 15 cents per share a year ago [4] - The company posted revenues of $627 million for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $679 million, but showing a year-over-year improvement of 15.9% [4] Group 3: Stock Performance - Nexa Resources' shares have declined by 27.4% over the past year, while the industry has seen an 8.6% decline [5] Group 4: Strategic Focus - Nexa Resources is prioritizing profitable assets and boosting free cash flow while adhering to a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a focus on expanding copper exploration in Namibia beyond Latin America [3]

Core Viewpoint - Fortuna Mining Corp. has completed the sale of its interest in the Yaramoko Mine and three other subsidiaries to Soleil Resources International Ltd, marking a strategic shift in its operational focus and liquidity management [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Sale Details - Fortuna Mining sold its interest in the Yaramoko Mine due to its limited remaining life and challenging operating conditions in Burkina Faso [3]. - The sale generated $70 million for Fortuna Mining, along with a $53.8 million dividend received prior to the deal's closure [4]. - The transaction is expected to enhance Fortuna Mining's liquidity, increasing cash and short-term investments to over $380 million and total liquidity to over $530 million [4]. Group 2: Operational Impact - Following the sale, Fortuna Mining will no longer have operations in Burkina Faso, with its portfolio now including the Séguéla mine in Côte d'Ivoire, Lindero mine in Argentina, Caylloma mine in Peru, and the Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal [2]. - The company has updated its 2025 gold equivalent production forecast to 309,000-339,000 ounces, a decrease from the previous range of 380,000-422,000 ounces, reflecting an 18% year-over-year dip [5]. - The All-in Sustaining Cost for 2025 is now projected to be between $1,670 and $1,765 per GEO, up from the earlier estimate of $1,550 to $1,680, primarily due to the exclusion of Yaramoko's contribution [5]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Fortuna Mining's shares have increased by 0.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 7% decline in the industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - Sandstorm Gold Ltd. reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, driven by high commodity prices, with record revenues and net income, alongside ongoing share buybacks and deleveraging efforts [2][7][12]. Financial Highlights - Record revenue of $50.1 million, up from $42.8 million in Q1 2024 [7][12]. - Production of 18,492 attributable gold equivalent ounces, down from 20,316 ounces in the same period last year [7][12]. - Cash flows from operating activities of $40.8 million, compared to $32.6 million in Q1 2024 [7][15]. - Net income of $11.3 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3.9 million in Q1 2024 [7][15]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately 3.1 million common shares for $19.1 million during Q1 2025, with an additional 270,000 shares purchased for $2.0 million post-quarter [2][3]. - Sandstorm renewed its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) allowing for the purchase of up to 20 million common shares, indicating a strategic focus on share repurchases [3]. Deleveraging Efforts - The company made $15 million in net debt repayments during the quarter, with an additional $12 million repaid after the quarter ended [4]. - As of May 6, 2025, Sandstorm has an outstanding balance of $328 million on its revolving credit facility, with an undrawn balance of $297 million [4]. Production and Revenue Breakdown - Approximately 73% of gold equivalent production was from precious metals, 20% from copper, and 7% from other commodities [12]. - Revenue from precious metals was $34.8 million, copper revenue was $11.3 million, and other commodities contributed $4.0 million [13]. Project Developments - The Hod Maden joint venture is advancing with approved early-works capital investments of $60–$100 million for 2025 [5]. - Glencore is expected to submit an application for the MARA copper-gold project under Argentina's RIGI, which aims to support large investments [6][8]. Production Outlook - Attributable gold equivalent ounces are forecasted to be between 65,000 and 80,000 ounces in 2025, with long-term production expected to reach approximately 150,000 ounces by 2030 [11].

Core Insights - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) reported a second-quarter fiscal 2025 profit of $217.5 million or $3.72 per share, a 38% increase from $157.5 million or $2.74 per share in the prior-year quarter [1] - Adjusted earnings were $3.98 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.95 [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for the fiscal second quarter were $1,421 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,498.2 million, and reflecting a year-over-year decline of approximately 6.8% [2] - U.S. Consumer division net sales decreased by 5% year over year to $1,311.5 million, falling short of the estimate of $1,373.2 million, while the segment recorded a profit of $392.5 million, up 2% year over year [3] - The Hawthorne segment's net sales plummeted 51% year over year to $32.7 million, missing the estimate of $70.4 million, and reported a loss of $0.9 million, which was an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million in the previous year [4] - The other segment's net sales fell 3% year over year to $76.8 million, exceeding the estimate of $62.3 million, and reported a profit of $9 million, up 41% [4] - At the end of the fiscal second quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $16.9 million, down around 74% year over year, while long-term debt decreased roughly 9.7% to $2,493.2 million [5] Outlook - The company reiterated its guidance for U.S. Consumer segment net sales, adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, but has ceased issuing full-year revenue guidance for the Hawthorne segment due to ongoing uncertainty in the cannabis business [6] Stock Performance - SMG's shares have declined by 23.7% over the past year, compared to a 10.1% decline in its industry [7] Zacks Rank - SMG currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), with better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space including Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN), SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM), and Coeur Mining (CDE) [8]