Group 1 - TSMC has experienced significant revenue growth of 60% year-over-year in April 2023, reaching approximately $7.2 billion [1] - TSMC's stock has risen nearly 70% on the NYSE and about 60% in the Taiwanese stock market over the last 52 weeks, raising questions about its potential to reach $200 per share [1] - The average 12-month price target for TSMC is currently $162.64, which is 13.90% above the current price, with a maximum estimate of $183 from Goldman Sachs [2][4] Group 2 - Despite the positive momentum, analysts suggest that TSMC may not reach the $200 price point before the end of 2024, although significant surges are possible in the technology sector [4] - Following the release of April's revenue figures, TSMC shares rose 3.11% in extended trading, indicating strong market reaction [5] - TSMC shares have increased by 40.64% since the beginning of 2024, recovering from a recent monthly decline [6]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported April 2024 revenues of NT$236 billion (approximately $7.3 billion), reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.6% and a month-on-month increase of 21% [1] - The April revenue figures are just $7.18 billion short of TSMC's record monthly high of NT$243.20 billion (US$7.517 billion) reported in November 2023, which had a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month-on-month increase of 34.8% [1] - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to the rising demand for AI-related technologies and chips, indicating a robust market for AI-adjacent stocks [1][3] Revenue Performance - April 2024 revenue of NT$236 billion represents a near 60% increase compared to April 2023 [1] - The month-on-month increase of 21% in April 2024 significantly outpaces the previous year's performance in November 2023 [1] - This may be the highest yearly increase in monthly revenue figures TSMC has ever recorded [3] Market Demand - TSMC's CEO highlighted the growing integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors, including data centers, PCs, mobile devices, automobiles, and the Internet of Things [3] - The company is focusing on providing a comprehensive set of technologies to support AI development, including advanced silicon and packaging solutions [3]

Core Insights - TSMC reported a significant revenue increase of nearly 60% year-on-year for April, driven by high demand for advanced semiconductors used in AI hardware [1] - The company controls over 50% of the global semiconductor market and supplies chips for major tech companies, including Apple and Nvidia [1] - TSMC's consolidated revenue for April reached approximately NT$236.02 billion (US$7.2 billion), marking a 59.6% increase from April 2023 [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter, TSMC's revenue rose 13% year-on-year to US$18.87 billion, with expectations of a 27.6% increase in the second quarter [2] - The demand for chips has surged globally due to the success of AI applications like OpenAI's ChatGPT [2] Geopolitical Context - TSMC's operations are primarily based in Taiwan, which faces geopolitical tensions with China, raising concerns about the stability of the semiconductor supply chain [2] - The U.S. has emphasized the importance of TSMC, with 92% of its leading-edge chips sourced from the company in Taiwan [4] U.S. Expansion Plans - TSMC announced plans for a third factory in the U.S., increasing its total investment in the country to US$65 billion [5] - The company has faced challenges in its U.S. projects due to a shortage of skilled labor necessary for chip manufacturing [5] - TSMC also launched an US$8.6 billion plant in Japan, indicating a strategic move to diversify production locations [5] Natural Disaster Impact - A recent earthquake in Taiwan prompted TSMC to reassure customers about minimal disruption to production [6]

会议纪 要 证 券研究 报 告 电子 2024 年5月7日 台积电（TSM）FY2024Q1业绩点评及法说会纪要 会议时间：2024年4月18日 AI 需求持续强劲，传统需求缓慢复苏 会议地点：线上  事项： 2024年4月18日台积电发布2024年Q1季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。2024Q1， 华创证券研究所 公司实现营收5926.4亿新台币/188.7亿美元，美元计价同比增长12.9%，环比减 少3.8%；毛利率为53.1%，同比下降3.2pct，环比提升0.1pct。 证券分析师：耿琛 电话：0755-82755859  评论： 邮箱：gengchen@hcyjs.com 1. 业绩总览：2024Q1实现营收5926.4亿新台币/188.7亿美元（美元计价：QoQ- 执业编号：S0360517100004 3.8%，YoY+12.9%），高于指引上沿（此前指引为180~188亿美金），环比下降主 证券分析师：岳阳 要受到智能手机市场季节性波动的影响，但得到了持续的高性能计算（HPC）需 求的部分抵消；2024Q1实现Non-GAAP毛利率53.1%（QoQ+0.1pct，YoY-3.2pct）， 邮 ...

TSMC could very well join the elite group of trillion-dollar stocks in the next six years. Here's how.Six tech stocks are worth at least $1 trillion today, in terms of market capitalization. All six are members of the "Magnificent Seven" group of game-changing market darlings that drove the stock market's gains in 2023. There are other ways to measure market footprints, of course -- sorted by assets on the balance sheet, you'd get a very different list of six mega-banks and an insurance-based conglomerate i ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC [3] Core Views - TSMC's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $18.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.9%. The company expects high growth in Q2 2024, with projected revenue between $19.6 billion and $20.4 billion [1][2] - The semiconductor industry outlook has been downgraded, with TSMC lowering its 2024 growth forecast for the semiconductor industry (excluding memory) to 10% and for the foundry industry to 14%-19% [1][2] - AI demand is driving significant growth, with TSMC expecting AI application processor revenue to double this year, contributing 11%-13% to total revenue [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $18.87 billion, with a gross margin of 53.1% and a net profit of 225.49 billion NTD, up 8.9% year-over-year [1] - TSMC's revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2,707.76 billion NTD, 3,299.10 billion NTD, and 3,849.43 billion NTD, representing year-over-year growth rates of 25%, 22%, and 17% respectively [2][7] - The company expects net profits of 1,010.27 billion NTD, 1,279.17 billion NTD, and 1,508.82 billion NTD for the same periods, with growth rates of 21%, 27%, and 18% respectively [2][7] Market Demand - TSMC's Q1 2024 revenue breakdown by application shows HPC at 46%, smartphones at 38%, IoT at 6%, automotive at 6%, and digital consumer electronics at 2% [1] - AI-related data center demand is strong, while smartphone demand is recovering slowly, and traditional server demand remains lukewarm [1][2] Technology and Production - Advanced process technology now accounts for 65% of TSMC's wafer revenue, with 3nm and 5nm products contributing 9% and 37% respectively in Q1 2024 [1] - TSMC anticipates that 3nm revenue will double in 2024, with a target of 15% contribution to total revenue [1][2] Investment Outlook - The target price for TSMC is set at $154, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 estimates [2] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI computing demand and the significant growth opportunities in AI edge devices [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on TSMC, with a focus on AI demand and advanced packaging technology as key growth drivers [2][9][10]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q1 2024 revenue was USD 18.87 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 16.5% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3.8%, slightly exceeding guidance [9][11]. - The company has adjusted its semiconductor growth forecast for 2024, now expecting a 3% increase in the global semiconductor market (excluding memory), down from previous expectations of over 5% [10][17]. - AI demand is highlighted as a standout area, with expectations for server AI processor revenue to more than double in 2024, contributing to over 20% of total revenue [10][18]. Financial Performance - TSMC's gross margin for Q1 2024 was 53.1%, which is a year-over-year decrease of 3.2 percentage points but an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [11][12]. - The company shipped 3,030 thousand wafers in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.1% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 25.4% [30][32]. Market Demand - Smartphone revenue saw a seasonal decline of 8% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 40% of Q1 revenue, while high-performance computing (HPC) revenue increased by 10% [10][13]. - TSMC has lowered its automotive electronics demand forecast, now expecting a decline in this segment for the year [10][17]. Technology and Capacity Expansion - TSMC is expanding its global manufacturing footprint, particularly in Arizona, to support AI-related demand and enhance customer trust [20][21]. - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecast for 2024 at USD 32-36 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced processes [16][26]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the semiconductor market, with TSMC's business expected to grow sequentially throughout 2024, with an overall growth slightly exceeding 5% for the year [17][18]. - The N3 technology is projected to begin mass production in 2025, with significant customer interest and expected revenue contributions [19][25].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 海外信息科技 [ Table_Main[台I Tnaf 积bol]e 电_Ti（tle] T SM.US） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（美元）： 129.75 业绩超预期，AI 需求支撑下后市仍可期 2024.04.24 海 —台积电 2024Q1业绩点评 [ Table_Market] 交易数据 外 秦和平(分析师) 李奇(分析师) 52周内股价区间（美元） 79.75- 公 0755-23976666 0755-23976888 157.76 司 qinheping027734@gtjas.com liqi028295@gtjas.com 当前股本（百万股） 5,186 证书编号 S0880523110003 S0880523060001 当前市值（百万美元） 672,937 （ 美 本报告导读： [ Table_PicQuote] 国 高性能计算需求持续支撑下，Q1收入超预期。Q2收入指引超预期 ...

业绩简评 2024 年 4月 18日公司披露24Q1 业绩，Q1 营收 5926.4 亿新台币 （188.73 亿美元），新台币口径下营收环比下滑 5.3%，同比增长 16.5%；毛利率为 53.1%，超过指引上限53%；净利润2254.9 亿新 台币（71.72 亿美元），新台币口径下环比下滑 5.5%，同比增长 8.9%。 根据公司指引24Q2 营收为196~204 亿美元，中枢环比增长6.0%， 同比增长 27.6%，毛利率为 51~53%。公司维持全年资本开支 280~320 亿美元，维持全年营收增长指引在20~25%。 经营分析 HPC 营收维持增长，智能手机市场季节性下滑。分下游看，HPC、 手机、IOT、汽车、DCE 和其他一季度营收环比分别变化+3%、-16%、 美元(元) 成交金额(百万元) +5%、+0%、+33%、-8%，占比分别为46%、38%、6%、6%、2%、2%。 160.00 7,000 根据公司法说会，预计全年AI 处理器相关营收占比翻倍，占比达 147.00 6,000 5,000 到13%，未来有望维持50% CAGR，预计到28 年营收占比达到20%。 134.00 4 ...

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. ...