Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company reported a significant increase in profit for Q1 2025, despite a slight decline in net sales, primarily due to lower selling prices in the Potash segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a profit of $238.1 million or 75 cents per share, up from $45.2 million or 14 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share were 49 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents [1]. - Net sales decreased approximately 2% year over year to $2,620.9 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,665.9 million [1]. Segment Highlights - **Potash Segment**: - Net sales were $570 million, down around 11% year over year, but exceeded the estimate of $453.7 million [2]. - Sales volumes totaled 2.1 million tons, down from 2.2 million tons a year ago, missing the estimate of 2.2 million tons [2]. - Gross margin declined to $80 per ton from $98 per ton in the prior year [2]. - **Phosphate Segment**: - Net sales were $1,099 million, down around 6% from the prior year, but topped the estimate of $1,027.3 million [3]. - Sales volumes totaled 1.5 million tons, down from 1.6 million tons a year ago, lagging the estimate of 1.7 million tons [3]. - Gross margin increased to $111 per ton from $97 per ton in the prior year [3]. - **Mosaic Fertilizantes Segment**: - Net sales were approximately $934 million, up about 5% year over year, but missed the estimate of $1,091.9 million [4]. - Sales volume rose to 1.8 million tons from 1.7 million tons in the prior year [4]. - Gross margin increased to $69 per ton from $44 per ton in the prior year [4]. Financial Position - At the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $259.2 million, down 5% from the prior quarter [5]. - Long-term debt remained flat at $3,329.9 million [5]. Outlook - The company expects Potash segment sales volumes to be between 2.3 million tons and 2.5 million tons in Q2 [6]. - For the Phosphate division, sales volumes are projected to be 1.7-1.9 million tons, indicating strong global demand [6]. - Sales volumes for the Mosaic Fertilizantes unit are expected to be around 30% higher than Q1 [6]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be in the range of $1.2-$1.3 billion for 2025 [7]. Price Performance - Shares of Mosaic have gained 3% over the past year, compared to a 7.4% rise in the Zacks Fertilizers industry [8].

Core Insights - Mosaic reported $2.62 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, a year-over-year decline of 2.2% and an EPS of $0.49 compared to $0.65 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of -1.69% against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.67 billion and an EPS surprise of +25.64% over the consensus estimate of $0.39 [1] Financial Performance - The stock has returned +29.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.5% change, and currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3] - Net Sales for Phosphates were reported at $1.10 billion, below the $1.15 billion average estimate, representing a -6% year-over-year change [4] - Net Sales for Mosaic Fertilizantes were $934 million, compared to the five-analyst average estimate of $1.02 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +5.4% [4] - Net Sales for Corporate and Other were $18 million, significantly better than the estimated -$33.01 million, but this represents a -194.7% change compared to the year-ago quarter [4] - Net Sales for Potash were $570 million, exceeding the $516.70 million average estimate, but showing an -11.4% change year-over-year [4] Sales Volumes and Pricing - Total Finished Product sales volumes for Mosaic Fertilizantes were 1,847 KTon, below the average estimate of 1,938.02 KTon [4] - The average finished product selling price for Potash was $234, slightly lower than the $237.21 average estimate [4] - Phosphates sales volumes totaled 1,498 KTon, compared to the estimated 1,591.66 KTon [4] - Potash sales volumes were reported at 2,113 KTon, below the five-analyst average estimate of 2,154.66 KTon [4] - The average finished product selling price for Phosphates was $632, lower than the four-analyst average estimate of $649.44 [4] Realized Costs - Realized costs for Sulfur in Phosphates were $157 per Ton, slightly above the average estimate of $156.99 per Ton [4] - Realized costs for Blended rock were $77 per Ton, compared to the four-analyst average estimate of $79.75 per Ton [4] - Realized costs for Ammonia were $416 per Ton, higher than the four-analyst average estimate of $406.13 per Ton [4]

Financial Performance - The company's consolidated revenues for Q1 2025 were $2621 million[5] - The company's net income was $238 million[5] - Adjusted EBITDA was $544 million[5] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $049[50] Segment Performance - Phosphate net revenues were $1099 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $276 million[5] - Potash net revenues were $570 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $240 million[5] - Mosaic Fertilizantes net revenues were $934 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $122 million[5] Production and Cost - Phosphate production volume for Q1 2025 was 142 million tonnes[12] - Potash production volume for Q1 2025 was 233 million tonnes[15] - Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volume outlook of 100 million to 108 million tonnes represents approximately 15% growth from prior year[7]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Mosaic reported quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.39 per share, but down from $0.65 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 25.64% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.62 billion for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.69% and down from $2.68 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Mosaic has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has not beaten consensus revenue estimates during the same period [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Mosaic shares have increased approximately 24.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a -3.9% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.68 for the coming quarter and $2.20 for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Rank for Mosaic is currently 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Group 3: Industry Context - The Fertilizers industry, to which Mosaic belongs, is currently ranked in the top 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Nutrien, a competitor in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 28.3% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Mosaic (MOS) will report quarterly earnings of $0.39 per share, reflecting a 40% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.67 billion, a decrease of 0.5% from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.2% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [1][2] Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Phosphates' at $1.15 billion, down 1.7% year over year [4] - 'Net Sales- Mosaic Fertilizantes' is projected to reach $1.02 billion, up 15.4% from the previous year [4] - 'Net Sales- Potash' is expected to be $516.70 million, reflecting a 19.6% decline year over year [4] Sales Volumes - 'Phosphates - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is estimated at 1,591.66 KTon, compared to 1,644 KTon a year ago [5] - 'Potash - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is projected to be 2,154.66 KTon, slightly down from 2,163 KTon last year [6] - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Sales volumes - Total Finished Product' is expected to reach 1,938.02 KTon, up from 1,715 KTon year over year [6] Cost Estimates - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Blended rock' is projected at $79.75 per Ton, down from $81 per Ton last year [7] - 'Phosphates - Realized costs - Sulfur' is expected to be $156.99 per Ton, compared to $142 per Ton in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Mosaic Fertilizantes - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is estimated at $503.72, down from $517 year over year [8] Price Expectations - 'Phosphates - Average finished product selling price (destination)' is projected at $649.44, compared to $677 in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Mosaic have returned +30.1%, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 6, with anticipated impacts from weak fertilizer prices but potential gains from healthy demand and cost-management actions [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Mosaic has experienced a negative earnings surprise of approximately 17.2% on average over the last four quarters, with a 15.1% negative surprise in the most recent quarter [1]. - The Earnings ESP for Mosaic is +15.82%, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter set at 39 cents [4]. Group 2: Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic's first-quarter consolidated sales is $2,665.9 million, indicating a decline of 0.5% compared to the same quarter last year [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Favorable demand for phosphate and potash is expected to benefit Mosaic, driven by strong agricultural conditions and favorable farmer economics globally [8]. - The demand for grains and oilseeds remains high, supporting the overall fertilizer market [8]. Group 4: Cost Management - Mosaic is implementing cost-reduction strategies aimed at achieving $150 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2025 [9]. - The company is focused on improving its operating cost structure amid a challenging environment [9]. Group 5: Price Trends - Softer fertilizer prices have negatively impacted Mosaic's sales and margins, with phosphate and potash prices declining since mid-2022 [10]. - The average selling price per ton for the Potash segment is estimated at $209, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.6%, while the Phosphate unit's average selling price is expected to be $609, indicating a 10% decline from the prior year [11].

Company Overview - Mosaic is headquartered in Tampa and operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically in fertilizer production [3] - The company's stock has experienced a price change of 23.07% year-to-date [3] Dividend Information - Mosaic currently pays a dividend of $0.22 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.91%, which is higher than the Fertilizers industry's yield of 2.46% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.64% [3] - The annualized dividend of $0.88 represents a 4.8% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the past five years, Mosaic has increased its dividend three times, achieving an average annual increase of 45.27% [4] - The current payout ratio is 42%, indicating that Mosaic pays out 42% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth Expectations - For the fiscal year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic's earnings is projected at $2.20 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 11.11% [5] Investment Considerations - Dividends are favored by investors as they enhance stock investing profits, reduce overall portfolio risk, and offer tax advantages [6] - Established firms with secure profits are typically viewed as the best dividend options, while high-growth businesses and tech startups rarely offer dividends [7] - Mosaic is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Mosaic (MOS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.39, reflecting a 40% decrease compared to the previous year, and revenues expected to be $2.67 billion, down 0.5% from the same quarter last year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for May 6, and the stock may rise if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.2% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +15.82% for Mosaic, suggesting a higher likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Mosaic was expected to post earnings of $0.53 per share but only achieved $0.45, resulting in a surprise of -15.09% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Mosaic has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Conclusion - While Mosaic is positioned as a potential earnings-beat candidate, other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of its earnings release [16].

Company Overview - Company is a leading potassium fertilizer producer in Southeast Asia, with significant mining rights in Laos covering 263.3 square kilometers and an estimated pure potassium chloride resource of approximately 1 billion tons [22] - The company has a production capacity of 3 million tons per year for potassium chloride and is accelerating the construction of additional projects to increase capacity [22][23] Industry Overview Global Potassium Fertilizer Supply - Global proven potassium salt reserves exceed 4.8 billion tons, with Canada, Laos, Russia, and Belarus accounting for 79% of the total reserves [5] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with Canada, Russia, and Belarus controlling 69.4% of global production capacity [5] - Geopolitical tensions have led to production cuts in Russia and Belarus, potentially tightening global potassium fertilizer supply in 2025 [6] Global Potassium Fertilizer Demand - Global potassium fertilizer demand is projected to reach 74.3 million tons in 2025, driven by population growth and increased agricultural production needs [7][9] - Asia is expected to account for approximately 31.1 million tons of this demand, with China being the largest consumer [9][12] Asian Potassium Fertilizer Market - The Asian potassium fertilizer production capacity is concentrated in China, Israel, Jordan, and Laos, totaling around 15-16 million tons [11] - Laos is emerging as a key player in the potassium fertilizer market due to its rich resources and strategic location [11] Chinese Potassium Fertilizer Market - China is heavily reliant on potassium fertilizer imports, with an import dependency rate of around 70% in 2024 [16] - The apparent consumption of potassium chloride in China is expected to reach 18.01 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The potassium fertilizer prices have significantly increased, with domestic spot prices rising from 2565 CNY/ton to 3310 CNY/ton, a 29.0% increase as of March 7, 2025 [2][9] - The supply-demand imbalance in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is exacerbated by low inventory levels and increased demand during the spring farming season [2][4] - Major potassium fertilizer producers in Belarus and Russia have announced production cuts, leading to a tighter global supply and increased prices [2][3] - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by oligopoly, with only 11 companies having a production capacity exceeding 2 million tons, accounting for 67.26% of the total capacity [3][13] - Domestic companies are actively expanding overseas, particularly in Laos, where several projects have begun production, indicating a positive trend for future supply stability [3][18] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Domestic potassium fertilizer prices have accelerated since the beginning of the year, with a notable increase post-Spring Festival [2][9] - As of March 6, 2025, the total inventory at six major ports was 156.65 million tons, down approximately 940,000 tons year-on-year [2][9] Supply Dynamics - Belarusian producer Belaruskali announced a production reduction of approximately 900,000 to 1 million tons due to maintenance activities [2][4] - Russian producer Uralkali plans to suspend production at three mines in the second and third quarters of 2025, reducing exports by an estimated 700,000 tons [2][4] Demand Outlook - The demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to recover moderately, supported by rising grain prices and the need for fertilizers during the spring planting season [3][4] - The report anticipates a new cycle of price increases for potassium fertilizers, with prices expected to rise amid fluctuations [3][4] Industry Structure - The potassium fertilizer market remains concentrated, with a few key players dominating production [3][13] - The report highlights the strategic importance of overseas investments by domestic companies to enhance supply security [3][18]