摩根士丹利发布研报称，考虑到建筑活动低于预期，将中国中铁（601390）(00390)及中国建筑 (601668.SH)2025至2026年净利润预测下调18%至30%。该行将中铁H股评级从"增持"降至"与大市同 步"，目标价由5.6港元下调至4.6港元;中铁A股(601390.SH)维持"与大市同步"评级，目标价由7元人民币 下调至5.8元人民币。中国建筑评级从"增持"降至"减持"，目标价由6.5元人民币下调至4.7元人民币。 相较于中国建筑，大摩仍较看好中铁H股，因其在基础设施领域的敞口较高，若刺激政策出台，预计将 更显著受益。预计内地主要工程与建设企业2025年第二季度业绩表现疲弱，且此趋势可能持续至下半 年。市场已认可企业转向现金流纪律的策略转变，但执行效果因地方政府财政压力而低于预期。 大摩表示，第二季度显示行业持续的逆风。中国八大工程建设国企的新订单在第一季度同比下降4% 后，第二季度录得1%的同比增长。根据该行的渠道检查，第二季度现场项目执行依然疲软，水泥出货 量及挖掘机利用率数据下降支持这一观点。该行预计领先的工程建设企业因建筑活动疲弱而录得较差的 第二季度业绩。与此同时，尽管上半年地方政府专 ...

相较于中国建筑，大摩仍较看好中铁H股，因其在基础设施领域的敞口较高，若刺激政策出台，预计将 更显著受益。预计内地主要工程与建设企业2025年第二季度业绩表现疲弱，且此趋势可能持续至下半 年。市场已认可企业转向现金流纪律的策略转变，但执行效果因地方政府财政压力而低于预期。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，考虑到建筑活动低于预期，将中国中铁(00390)及中国建筑 (601668.SH)2025至2026年净利润预测下调18%至30%。该行将中铁H股评级从"增持"降至"与大市同 步"，目标价由5.6港元下调至4.6港元;中铁A股(601390.SH)维持"与大市同步"评级，目标价由7元人民币 下调至5.8元人民币。中国建筑评级从"增持"降至"减持"，目标价由6.5元人民币下调至4.7元人民币。 大摩表示，第二季度显示行业持续的逆风。中国八大工程建设国企的新订单在第一季度同比下降4% 后，第二季度录得1%的同比增长。根据该行的渠道检查，第二季度现场项目执行依然疲软，水泥出货 量及挖掘机利用率数据下降支持这一观点。该行预计领先的工程建设企业因建筑活动疲弱而录得较差的 第二季度业绩。与此同时，尽管上半年地方政 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [7][77]. Core Viewpoints - The Xinjiang-Tibet Railway is anticipated to accelerate construction, with a total investment estimated between 300 billion to 400 billion yuan, and a construction period of 7-8 years. This project is expected to significantly boost demand in related industries such as cement, steel, and water-reducing agents [2]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in infrastructure investment, driven by key projects like the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway and the Yaxi Hydropower Station. The sector's valuation remains at a low point, suggesting potential for recovery in profitability [4]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments and improving demand conditions, which are likely to create a positive feedback loop for the construction materials sector [4]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices remained stable, with a recent increase of 20 yuan/ton in Henan and a decrease of 20 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The average shipment rate is around 44%, with many prices touching or falling below cost lines due to rising coal prices [3][24]. - If self-regulatory measures are effectively implemented, cement prices may begin to recover [24]. Glass - The price of float glass has continued to decline, with reductions of 1-5 yuan per weight box in various regions. The production and sales rate has decreased, leading to increased inventory pressure [3][35]. - In the photovoltaic glass segment, prices have slightly increased due to improved downstream component operating rates and strong overseas demand, with 2.0mm coated panel prices rising to 10.5-11 yuan/square meter (+2.38%) [3][42]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali roving yarn has shown a slight decline, with mainstream prices at 3150-3700 yuan/ton, averaging 3521.25 yuan/ton, down 2.06% week-on-week [3][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cement and glass sectors, which are expected to benefit from supply-side adjustments and improving demand. Specific companies recommended include Qibin Group, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tapai Group [4]. - For fiberglass, the report highlights opportunities driven by structural demand increases, particularly in high-end applications related to AI [4]. Construction Sector - The construction sector has seen a decline in new orders and profitability due to local governments focusing on debt reduction. However, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, with new government bonds directed towards new projects [5]. - Recommended companies in the construction sector include China Railway Construction, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction [5].

Group 1: Infrastructure Investment - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in regions such as Xinjiang, Tibet, and Sichuan-Chongqing as part of the new era of western development [1] - In Xinjiang, railway investment is expected to remain strong, with significant projects like the New Tibet Railway and Yining-Aksu Railway set to commence this year [2] - The planned public road investment in Xinjiang for 2025 is projected at 80 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [3] Group 2: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is accelerating, with a projected coal output of 541 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.5% [4] - The coal consumption for thermal power generation in Xinjiang is expected to reach 195 million tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 36% of the total coal production [4] Group 3: Mining Development and Services - The acceleration of resource exploration and development in Xinjiang is highlighted, with the region set to add six large resource bases during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - Xinjiang has led the nation in the number of mining rights granted, with 146, 227, and 558 rights issued from 2022 to 2024 respectively [5]

CRIC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 士地周报 供应:本周供应建筑面积 527 万平方米,环比上升 65%。本周重点城市供应含宅用地 55 幅,平 均容积率 1.99,南通、太仓、成都本周供应宅地平均容积率均不高于 1.6。 重点供应地块方面,深圳市７月16日宝安区挂牌一宗宅地,出让底价 64.09 亿元,总建筑面积 14.5 万平方米，起拍楼板价 4.42 万元/平方米。该地块曾于 4 月 30 日出让，起始价 86.27 亿元, 后官宣中止出让。本次出让进行了规划调整,大幅降低商业用地配比,将容积率从原来的 5.7 降低 至 3.4，商业部分 18350 平方米限整体转让。该地块是宝中片区近年来最临近海岸线的集中连片净 地,周边文体、商业、教育、医疗、交通等配套较为成熟,临近高端住宅售价可达 11 万元/平方米 以上。 成交:成交建筑面积 251 万平方米,环比上升 12%，成交金额 138 亿元,环比下降 5%。本周深 圳再度成交了一宗高溢价宅地,再加之杭州高溢价地块的成交,带动平均溢价率上升至 12.2%,重 回年内高位。 深圳本周又成交了一宗高溢价宅地,该地块位于南山区前海板块,出让底价 11.5 ...

Core Insights - Listed companies are actively utilizing refinancing and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) to enhance profitability and stabilize operations amid the pandemic [1][2][3] Group 1: Refinancing Activities - As of May 17, 2022, the total refinancing scale of A-share listed companies reached 319.1 billion yuan, including private placements, rights issues, and convertible bonds [1] - Among the refinancing types, private placements accounted for the largest share, raising 177.2 billion yuan, followed by convertible bonds at 95.3 billion yuan and rights issues at 46.6 billion yuan [2] - The trend shows that private placements have been increasing in both scale and proportion over the years, with their share of total refinancing rising from 70% in 2019 to 75% in 2021 [2] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - A total of 1,371 M&A events occurred in the A-share market this year, involving a capital scale of 383.5 billion yuan [1][2] - Notably, there were 9 M&A events exceeding 5 billion yuan, with 2 completed and 7 ongoing, including a significant acquisition by China Railway for 11 billion yuan [3] - The trend of "A acquiring A" has become a characteristic of the M&A market this year, indicating a shift towards more strategic acquisitions among listed companies [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms in the capital market, particularly the registration system, are leading to a more rational valuation of listed companies, making them more attractive for acquisitions [4] - The improved quality of information disclosure and the effectiveness of the delisting system are contributing to the trend of weaker companies voluntarily seeking mergers or restructuring [4] - Smaller companies are encouraged to seek acquisitions by larger firms with industry synergies, as the valuation gap between IPOs and M&A narrows [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley forecasts weak performance for major engineering and construction companies in mainland China in Q2 2025, with this trend likely to continue into the second half of the year [1] - The firm has lowered net profit forecasts for China Railway and China State Construction by 18% to 30% for 2025 to 2026 [1] - China Railway's H-share rating has been downgraded from "Overweight" to "Market Perform," with the target price reduced from HKD 5.6 to HKD 4.6; the A-share rating remains "Market Perform," with the target price lowered from CNY 7 to CNY 5.8 [1] - China State Construction's rating has been downgraded from "Overweight" to "Underweight," with the target price reduced from HKD 6.5 to HKD 4.7 [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley remains more optimistic about China Railway's H-shares compared to China State Construction due to its higher exposure in the infrastructure sector, which is expected to benefit more significantly if stimulus policies are introduced [1]

Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongji Health announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Xinjiang Xinye Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. through a share issuance, while also raising funds from up to 35 qualified investors [1] - Following the transaction, Zhongji Health's controlling shareholder will change from Liushi State-owned Assets Company to Xinye Group, with the actual controller changing to Xinjiang State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2] - The transaction is classified as a major asset restructuring and will result in a reverse listing, with the target asset exceeding 100% of the corresponding indicators of the listed company [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, Zhongji Health reported revenue of 298 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 43.54 million yuan [2] - As of September 30, 2024, Zhongji Health's total assets amounted to 1.775 billion yuan, with net assets of 173 million yuan [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to safeguard national security and interests [3] - Over 30 small metal concept stocks, including major players like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Railway, have seen significant performance increases, with nearly 70% of these stocks recording price increases this year [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 12.8 billion to 14.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.15% to 72.12% due to higher sales volumes and prices of copper and cobalt [5] Group 4: Specific Company Performance - Yunnan Germanium is expected to report a net profit of approximately 46 million to 60 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 559.55% to 760.28% due to rising sales and prices of semiconductor materials and germanium products [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, suggesting a potential increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the land supply in 23 key cities in China saw a significant decrease in planned construction area, with a month-on-month decline of 62.9%, totaling 343.9 million square meters [1]. - The total land transaction amount reached 888.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 41% decrease compared to the previous month [1]. - The land transaction premium rate in July 2025 rose to 12.41%, indicating a notable recovery since the beginning of the year [3]. - China Resources Land led the land acquisition with 15 plots, totaling 906.69 billion yuan [3]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transactions - In July 2025, 106 residential land plots were launched, with 113 plots successfully transacted, amounting to a total planned construction area of 653.68 million square meters [1]. - The land transaction premium rate has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3]. Company Land Acquisition - The report highlights the land acquisition activities of major companies, with China Resources Land acquiring the most plots, followed by Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The average land price per square meter for China Resources Land was 20,422 yuan, while Greentown China had an average of 25,031 yuan per square meter [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Jinmao, which has shown significant land acquisition activity and improvements in corporate governance [4].

Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares and US stocks for August, driven by improving risk appetite and favorable macroeconomic conditions [4][5][20] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan is set with a target allocation of 45% equities, 45% bonds, and 10% commodities, with a maximum deviation of 10% [4][19] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) plan forecasts a 2025 annualized return of 55%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.65, suggesting strong performance in equity assets [5][20] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - Historical reviews of three central Xinjiang work conferences indicate significant price elasticity for construction companies in the Xinjiang region, with notable stock price increases following these events [7][9] - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment grew by 16.2% in the first five months of 2025, with industrial investment increasing by 22.8%, particularly in wind and solar energy projects [8] - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is expected to boost infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, with a total investment plan of 3.47 trillion yuan for 500 key projects [9][10] Group 3: Aerospace Industry Developments - The report highlights a critical shortage in China's rocket launch capacity, which is a bottleneck for low Earth orbit satellite deployment [11][13] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite networks is emphasized, with a target of deploying approximately 23,000 satellites by 2030, necessitating significant improvements in rocket launch capabilities [13][14] - The development of reusable rockets and liquid fuel technologies is identified as essential for enhancing launch capacity and reducing costs [14]