Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cra America. Other people, my friends. Hey, I'm just trying to make a little bit of money here. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, to teach you. Call me 1800 743 CBC. Tweet me, Chim Kmer. Okay, we keep hearing about the overstretched consumer and the chilly job market. Now, based on this endless drum beat of negative news, shouldn't the stock market by all mean measures and means be way down? >> Just today, we got some ugly data points. The ADP ...

Employment Data - The ADP monthly jobs report indicates a decline of -32K private-sector payrolls for November, falling short of expectations for +40K and the previous month's revised +47K [1] - This marks the fourth negative month for private-sector payroll growth in the last six, with a four-month trailing average now at -4K, the first negative reading since early 2020 during the Covid pandemic [2] Small Business Impact - The losses in private-sector jobs are primarily attributed to small businesses (fewer than 50 employees), which saw a significant drop of -120K jobs, marking a post-Covid low [2] - Small businesses have experienced six lower months out of the last seven, highlighting vulnerabilities in the current labor market [2] Job Loss Breakdown - Among small businesses, companies with fewer than 20 employees lost -46K jobs, while those with 20-49 employees accounted for -74K job losses [3] - The sectors most affected include Manufacturing, which lost -18K jobs, and Information Services, which saw a decline of -20K jobs [4] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a higher average increase of +6.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [5] Import and Export Prices - Import and Export Prices for September remained unchanged, with imports showing a year-over-year increase of +0.3% and exports up +3.8%, the highest in nearly three years [6][7] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP jobs data, pre-market futures initially showed gains but turned negative, indicating a potential reaction to the economic reports [8][9] Upcoming Economic Data - Further economic indicators, including Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September, as well as final S&P Services PMI and ISM Services results for November, are expected to be released [10]

Group 1: Employment Data - The ADP monthly jobs report indicates a decline of -32K private-sector payrolls for November, falling short of expectations for +40K and the previous month's revised figure of +47K, marking the fourth negative month in the last six [1][2] - The four-month trailing average of private-sector payrolls is currently at -4K, the first negative average since the early months of the Covid pandemic in 2020 [2] - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) accounted for all job losses, with a significant drop of -120K jobs, representing a post-Covid low [2][3] Group 2: Job Loss Breakdown - Job losses were concentrated in small businesses, with -46K jobs lost among companies with fewer than 20 employees and -74K among firms with 20-49 employees [3] - Sectors such as Manufacturing lost -18K jobs, while Information Services and Professional/Business Services saw declines of -20K and -26K jobs, respectively [4] Group 3: Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a higher average increase of +6.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [5] Group 4: Import and Export Prices - Import and export prices remained unchanged in September, with imports at 0.0% and exports also unchanged, reflecting a lack of significant price movement [6][7] - Year-over-year, imports increased by +0.3%, while exports rose by +3.8%, the highest in nearly three years, suggesting challenges in absorbing tariffs within the economy [8] Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP jobs data, pre-market futures showed muted reactions, with larger indexes shifting from positive to negative territory, indicating a potential market response to the economic reports [9][10]

Core Insights - Private sector employment decreased by 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with year-over-year pay growth at 4.4% [1] - Job creation has been stagnant in the second half of 2025, with notable weaknesses in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction sectors [1] Employment Report - Private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November 2025, with significant declines in small businesses leading the downturn [1] - Job losses by industry included: - Goods-producing: -119,000 (Natural resources/mining: 8,000; Construction: -9,000; Manufacturing: -18,000) - Service-providing: -13,000 (Trade/transportation/utilities: 1,000; Information: -20,000; Financial activities: -9,000; Professional/business services: -26,000; Education/health services: 33,000; Leisure/hospitality: 13,000; Other services: -4,000) [1] - Job changes by region showed: - Northeast: -100,000 (New England: -50,000; Mid-Atlantic: -49,000) - Midwest: +45,000 (East North Central: +41,000; West North Central: +4,000) - South: -43,000 (South Atlantic: -78,000; East South Central: +31,000; West South Central: +3,000) - West: +67,000 (Mountain: +13,000; Pacific: +54,000) [1] - Changes by establishment size indicated: - Small establishments: -120,000 (1-19 employees: -46,000; 20-49 employees: -74,000) - Medium establishments: +51,000 (50-249 employees: +31,000; 250-499 employees: +20,000) - Large establishments: +39,000 (500+ employees: +39,000) [1] Pay Insights - Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was 4.4%, down from 4.5% in October, while job-changers saw a pay increase of 6.3%, down from 6.7% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by industry included: - Goods-producing: Natural resources/mining: 4.3%; Construction: 4.4%; Manufacturing: 4.8% - Service-providing: Trade/transportation/utilities: 4.4%; Information: 4.2%; Financial activities: 5.2%; Professional/business services: 4.2%; Education/health services: 4.3%; Leisure/hospitality: 4.5%; Other services: 4.0% [1] - Median annual pay changes for job-stayers by firm size included: - Small firms: 1-19 employees: 2.5%; 20-49 employees: 4.0% - Medium firms: 50-249 employees: 4.7%; 250-499 employees: 4.8% - Large firms: 500+ employees: 4.9% [1]

Market Performance - Major market indexes showed positive movement, with the Dow gaining +185 points (+0.39%), S&P 500 up +16 points (+0.25%), and Nasdaq increasing by +137 points (+0.59%) [1] - Bitcoin rose nearly +6% to 91.4K, positively impacting the stock of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which gained over +5% [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index experienced a slight decline of -0.17% [1] Economic Data - Private-sector payrolls for November are expected from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), with a consensus estimate of around 40K new jobs, down from 42K the previous month [2] - The labor market has shown difficulties, with no back-to-back positive ADP jobs numbers since April and May of 2025 [2] - Upcoming reports on Imports, Exports, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization are anticipated to show slight gains from the previous month [3] Earnings Reports - CrowdStrike (CRWD) reported Q3 earnings of 96 cents per share on revenues of $1.23 billion, exceeding estimates and showing over +20% year-over-year growth [4] - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat Q3 earnings expectations with 53 cents per share and record-high revenues of $1.36 billion, leading to an +11% increase in shares after market [5] - Marvell Technologies (MRVL) posted Q3 earnings of 76 cents per share on revenues of $2.08 billion, slightly above projections, but shares remained flat [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights two lesser-known companies, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Marzetti, which are notable for their consistent dividend increases, making them attractive to income investors [1][2]. Group 1: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - ADP has recently celebrated its status as a Dividend King, having increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.70 per share, marking 51 consecutive years of dividend hikes [3][6]. - The company operates in the finance sector, providing payroll and human resources services, and has maintained a stable profit margin between 17% and 20% over the last five fiscal years [4][5]. - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ADP reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $5.2 billion and a 6% rise in GAAP net income to $1 billion, indicating sustained profitability [6][5]. - The upcoming dividend payout will be distributed on January 1, 2026, yielding 2.7% based on the most recent stock price [7]. Group 2: Marzetti - Marzetti, a food products supplier, has also increased its dividend for the 63rd consecutive year, raising it by 5% to $1 per share [9]. - The company reported a nearly 6% rise in net sales to over $493 million for the first quarter of 2026, with significant growth in its food service segment, which saw an 8% increase [10][12]. - Marzetti's business model includes a balanced approach between its food service and retail segments, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in consumer spending [13]. - The raised dividend will be paid on December 31 to stockholders of record as of December 5, yielding approximately 2.4% based on the current share price [14].

Group 1 - The stock of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is experiencing significant attention due to high implied volatility in the options market, particularly for the Jan. 16, 2025 $125 Call option [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a substantial price change or an upcoming event that could trigger a rally or sell-off [2] - Currently, ADP holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Internet – Software industry, which is in the top 28% of the Zacks Industry Rank, but analysts have lowered earnings estimates for the current quarter from $2.61 to $2.51 per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding ADP may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility to capture decay [4]

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]

Core Insights - For the four weeks ending November 8, 2025, U.S. private employers experienced an average job loss of -13,500 jobs per week according to the NER Pulse, which is a weekly update of the ADP National Employment Report [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The NER Pulse provides preliminary estimates of week-over-week changes in U.S. employment based on a four-week moving average, utilizing ADP's high-frequency data [1][3] - The data is seasonally adjusted and released with a two-week lag, indicating a structured approach to employment reporting [1] Group 2: ADP Research and Collaboration - The ADP National Employment Report and the NER Pulse are produced in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, highlighting a partnership aimed at enhancing employment data accuracy [3] - ADP Research focuses on making the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery, serving companies, workers, and policymakers [3] Group 3: ADP Overview - ADP has over 75 years of experience in shaping the world of work, providing HR and payroll solutions to more than 1.1 million clients across over 140 countries [5] - The company emphasizes innovation and expertise, aiming to solve business challenges for clients of all sizes [5]

Core Insights - ADP Workforce Now has been recognized as a Leader in The Forrester Wave™: Human Capital Management Solutions, Q4 2025 evaluation, receiving the highest scores in 17 criteria within the Current Offering and Strategy categories [1][2][4] Group 1: Evaluation and Recognition - Forrester evaluated vendors based on strategy, current offering, and customer feedback through a detailed RFI, live demonstrations, and client interviews [2] - ADP is noted as a strong competitor in the HCM market, suitable for organizations seeking advanced talent and workforce management solutions beyond payroll [4] Group 2: Product Features and Innovations - ADP Workforce Now is recognized for its next-gen AI capabilities, including automation through ADP Assist, which provides process automation, proactive insights, and personalized experiences [5][6][7] - The solution offers comprehensive HR, benefits, compensation, and compliance services, standing out in the payroll market and effectively managing complexities for large global enterprises [6][7] Group 3: Client Feedback and Market Position - Customers commend ADP for its overall HCM solution, payroll services, benchmark data, reporting, analytics, and workforce planning tools [2][6] - ADP's transparent pricing model is highlighted as clear and cost-effective, with AI capabilities included at no additional cost [6][7]