Summary of Celsius Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - Celsius is the third-largest player in the U.S. energy drink category with over 20% market share following acquisitions of Alani Nu and Rockstar [1][2][30] Key Financial Insights - Q3 2023 was strong in terms of gross margin and EBITDA margin, but there was a disconnect in net sales expectations [2][3] - Volume increased by approximately 10%-11% from Q3 2023 to Q3 2025 [2] - Promotional activities led to a lower net sales per case, contributing to the disconnect in expected performance [3] Fourth Quarter Expectations - The integration of Alani into the Pepsi system is progressing well, with over 80% of the DSD system transitioned [5] - The fourth quarter is expected to be noisy due to various integrations and inventory management [4][6] - Alani's integration will be methodical, with a ramp-up expected in Q1 2024 [8][9] Market Dynamics - The energy drink category has shown resilience compared to other CPG sectors, with Celsius and Alani driving growth [13][14] - The focus on healthier, sugar-free options is attracting new consumers, particularly females [15][48] Pricing Strategy - There is potential for price elasticity in the market, with plans to optimize pricing across the multi-brand portfolio [16][17] - Revenue growth management (RGM) is a key focus for 2026 and beyond [18] Margin Outlook - Gross margins are expected to return to the low 50s% in the second half of 2024, with further expansion anticipated into 2027 [20][22] Brand Performance - Celsius has regained momentum with double-digit growth, particularly in convenience stores [24][25] - Market shares in South Florida are in the low to mid-20% range, with opportunities for growth in under-indexed markets [28][29] Innovation and Product Development - The Spritz Vibe LTO was successful, providing valuable insights for future LTOs [31][32] - Alani Nu's growth strategy includes leveraging LTOs to drive trial and frequency of consumption [40][41] Rockstar Integration - The acquisition of Rockstar aims to strengthen the energy portfolio within the Pepsi system, with plans for SKU rationalization and stabilization [43][44][45] Competitive Landscape - Celsius is well-positioned against competitors like Monster and Red Bull, focusing on health trends and younger demographics [60][61] - The company aims to gradually increase market share without expecting to catch up to the leaders in the short term [62] Capital Allocation - A $300 million open-ended repurchase authorization was announced, with a focus on investing in business growth and paying down debt [50][51] - Strong cash generation supports ongoing investments and share repurchases [52] Leadership and Team Expansion - Recent hires are expected to enhance relationships with Pepsi and drive growth across the multi-brand portfolio [53][54][55] Marketing Strategy - The restructuring of the marketing department aims to ensure each brand maintains its unique voice while benefiting from shared resources [56][57][58] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Celsius Holdings conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning.

Summary of Celsius Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Celsius Holdings - **Industry**: Beverages, specifically energy drinks Key Points and Arguments Q3 Performance - Celsius reported a strong Q3 with **$200 million in EBITDA** and a **13% year-over-year growth rate** as per Circana data [2][4] - Alani Nu brand is projected to reach a **$1.2 billion run rate** by the end of Q3, capturing over **20% market share** in its category [4][34] Marketing and Promotions - The company emphasized the success of the **Live Fit Go campaign**, which has been a significant driver of growth since its launch in June [2][4] - Promotional activities included participation in **Amazon Prime Day** and various promotions at **Costco**, which contributed to revenue recognition timing discrepancies between Q2 and Q3 [3][4] Transition to PepsiCo - The transition of Alani Nu into the Pepsi system is underway, with expectations for a smooth integration [5][6] - Management indicated that the transition may not result in the typical large inventory fill due to cash management practices at large CPG companies [6][7] Market Dynamics - The energy drink category is experiencing healthy growth, with Celsius and Alani Nu attracting new consumers, particularly among females and those seeking sugar-free options [13][14][17] - The company anticipates continued growth in the energy drink sector, albeit at a more sustainable rate than the mid-teens growth seen recently [14] Competitive Landscape - Celsius is positioned as a leader in the female and sugar-free segments, with a strong brand identity that takes time to build [27][28] - The company acknowledges increased competition, particularly from Monster, which is launching a female-focused product [27][28] Future Outlook - The management is optimistic about Q4 and 2026, expecting improvements in gross margins and EBITDA as integration with Pepsi progresses [48][49] - The company plans to continue investing in marketing, with **23%-25% of revenue** allocated to sales and marketing in Q4 [50] Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy - Celsius announced a buyback program to address perceived undervaluation and is open to future M&A opportunities, particularly in vertical integration [54][55] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its manufacturing capabilities to drive efficiencies [56] Protein Product Opportunities - While the primary focus of the Alani Nu acquisition was energy drinks, there is potential for growth in the protein category, although no immediate plans are in place [57][59] International Expansion - Celsius aims to expand its international footprint, currently at about **5% international sales**, with plans to evaluate new markets [63][64] - The company is building a robust international team to support this growth [65] Conclusion - Celsius Holdings is positioned for continued growth in the energy drink market, with strong brand identities, a successful transition to Pepsi, and a focus on marketing and international expansion. The management remains optimistic about future performance despite current market challenges and competition.

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings has experienced a remarkable stock increase of 129% in 2025, driven by a significant acquisition and a return to growth [2] - The company is set to announce its third-quarter results, which are critical for its performance outlook in 2026 [2] Acquisition Details - Celsius completed a transformative acquisition of Alani Nu for $1.8 billion, effectively $1.65 billion after tax benefits [3] - The acquisition was valued at 3 times Alani Nu's trailing sales and 12 times its adjusted EBITDA, indicating a favorable deal for Celsius [4] - The deal closed quickly with no regulatory hurdles, highlighting the urgency and necessity of the acquisition for Celsius [5] Financial Performance - Celsius faced a sharp deceleration in revenue growth in 2024, with negative growth in the latter half of the year, necessitating the acquisition [6] - Anticipation of the acquisition led to a rebound in Celsius's stock price after a significant decline in 2024 [7] - Analysts expect Celsius to report more than double the sales and a return to profitability in the upcoming third-quarter results, following a challenging previous year [8]

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings Inc. is enhancing its position in the energy drink market through a new distribution agreement with PepsiCo, which grants it category captain status and improved control over shelf space and product placement [1][2] - The partnership includes the addition of Alani Nu and Rockstar to Celsius' portfolio, which is expected to unlock new growth opportunities [1][3] Distribution and Market Presence - The revamped deal with PepsiCo secures guaranteed visibility for Celsius, allowing control over planograms and SKU prioritization in designated coolers [2] - Alani Nu is anticipated to benefit from larger displays, while Rockstar will have an optimized assortment focused on faster-selling products [3] Sales Performance - Celsius experienced a significant surge in U.S. retail sales, with a 120.8% increase in the four weeks ending August 10 [4] - The energy drink category is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences, with sales climbing 16.7% over the past 12 weeks as consumers move away from higher-priced iced coffee [4] Financial Metrics - Celsius reported strong profitability with second-quarter EBIT margins of 27.2% and gross margins of 51.5% [5] - The company aims for mid-50% gross margins and 30% EBITDA margins, which are considered achievable with potential upside [5] Competitive Landscape - Rockstar is facing challenges, with U.S. retail sales down 11.1% in the 12 weeks ending August 10, following a 14% decline in the previous period [6] - Despite these challenges, the inclusion of Rockstar in the PepsiCo partnership is expected to enhance Celsius' bargaining power and distribution scale [6] Future Projections - Piper Sandler projects Celsius' revenue to reach $2.42 billion and earnings of $1.02 per share in fiscal 2025, increasing to $3.32 billion and $1.35 per share in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the competitive landscape of the energy drink market in the U.S., focusing on Monster Beverage's declining market share and the rise of emerging brands like Celsius, Ghost, and Alani Nu, which are capitalizing on health trends and targeted marketing strategies [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since 2019, Monster's market share in the U.S. has decreased from 43.6% to 29.2% by the end of 2024, while its revenue growth for 2024 was only 4.9%, lagging behind the industry growth rate of 7% [2][12]. - The combined market share of Monster and Red Bull has dropped from 76% to 66%, indicating a significant decline in market concentration due to the emergence of smaller brands [2][12]. - Emerging brands have captured approximately 15% of the market share, up from less than 5% in 2015, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [2][12]. Group 2: Competitive Analysis - New brands are leveraging health trends by offering zero-sugar and natural caffeine products, which resonate with the growing health consciousness among consumers [7][12]. - Monster's traditional high-sugar and high-caffeine products have not adapted quickly enough to these trends, leading to a loss of market share [8][12]. - The marketing strategies of emerging brands focus heavily on social media and KOL (Key Opinion Leader) engagement, with over 80% of their marketing budgets allocated to these channels, compared to less than 30% for Monster [10][12]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The North American energy drink market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7%-8% from 2025 to 2029, but Monster's growth is projected to lag behind this rate due to its current market challenges [13][12]. - International markets present a significant growth opportunity for Monster, particularly in emerging markets where demand for energy drinks is more robust [16][12]. - Monster's international market share is expected to increase from 40% to 51% over the next five years, with a projected CAGR of 16% for international sales [17][12]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Monster's current valuation appears high, with a historical average PE ratio of 38x, while its growth rate is slowing, suggesting potential overvaluation [25][12]. - The company's PEG ratio exceeds 2, indicating strong expectations for future growth, but the competitive landscape is becoming increasingly challenging [27][12]. - Despite the high valuation, Monster's position as a staple energy drink brand may provide some resilience against rapid valuation declines, especially compared to other brands facing similar market pressures [33][12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues, profits, gross profits, and EBITDA in the second quarter [3] - The energy category has stabilized and is now experiencing double-digit growth rates, with Celsius holding approximately a 10-11% market share [1][3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Alani Nu, a female-focused brand, has been integrated into the Celsius portfolio, which is expected to enhance growth [2][3] - The partnership with PepsiCo allows Celsius to control planograms and optimize SKU placements, which is anticipated to drive efficiencies and revenue [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy drink category has seen a year-over-year growth of 17-18% in the last four weeks, with brands like Red Bull and Monster performing well [15] - The transition from coffee beverages to energy drinks is noted, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [16][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy focuses on strategic partnerships for distribution, particularly with PepsiCo, to enhance market presence and product placement [4][5] - The company aims to leverage its portfolio of brands (Celsius, Alani Nu, Rockstar) to target different consumer segments and maximize market opportunities [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the energy category's robustness and the company's ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [15][17] - The integration of Alani Nu and the acquisition of Rockstar are seen as pivotal for future growth, with expectations of enhanced distribution capabilities through PepsiCo [23][54] Other Important Information - The company is preparing for the largest convenience store show in the country, which will help set planograms for the upcoming year [27] - The partnership with PepsiCo includes a significant equity investment and an additional board seat, reflecting confidence in Celsius's growth potential [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the agreement with Pepsi mean for Celsius' long-term strategy? - The agreement enhances distribution capabilities and allows for better product placement, which is critical in the competitive energy category [4] Question: How does the acquisition of Alani Nu change the ability to service energy consumers? - The acquisition allows for a total energy approach, targeting different consumer segments effectively [11] Question: What is the expected financial impact of the deal with PepsiCo? - The deal is expected to bring in approximately $250 million of incremental revenue and enhance operational efficiencies [54] Question: How is the transition of Alani Nu to PepsiCo being managed? - The transition is anticipated to be seamless, with a focus on communication and project management to mitigate disruptions [60][62] Question: What does success look like for Celsius in the next two to three years? - Success is defined by a strong portfolio presence in the energy category, aiming for continued growth and market share expansion [65]

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings has shown a significant recovery in its stock performance after reporting positive quarterly financial results, with shares increasing over 29% and reaching new 52-week highs above $55 per share, recovering from a low of $21 per share earlier in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company experienced a year-over-year revenue growth of 9% in the second quarter of 2025, reaching $438 million, indicating that consumer demand remains strong despite previous declines [6][9]. - Celsius had an average quarterly revenue growth of nearly 80% from 2016 to 2023, showcasing its rapid market acceptance [3]. - The second-quarter gross margin was reported at 51.5%, only slightly lower than the 52% from the same quarter the previous year, suggesting resilience in profitability [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of Alani Nu has been a significant factor in Celsius's growth strategy, with Alani Nu's retail sales increasing by 129% [6][7]. - Alani Nu now constitutes over 40% of Celsius's overall business, providing a strong growth engine moving forward [7]. - The management has acknowledged that while Alani Nu has a lower gross profit margin, the integration of operations is expected to improve overall profitability in the long term [8][9]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Celsius has opportunities to expand the distribution of Alani Nu, which currently holds an 11% market share compared to 6.3% for Alani Nu, indicating potential for growth [11]. - Both Celsius and Alani Nu have significant untapped potential in international markets, which could serve as a lucrative growth avenue [12]. - With a market cap of less than $14 billion, Celsius is positioned as a top player in the U.S. market, suggesting room for expansion and increased valuation if successful in new markets [12].

Core Insights - The acquisition of Alani Nu has significantly contributed to Celsius's recent financial performance, leading to a strong turnaround in the company's fortunes [2][3][9] Financial Performance - Celsius reported a remarkable 84% increase in overall sales, reaching $739.3 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $655.7 million [5] - North American sales surged by 87% to $714.5 million, primarily driven by the addition of Alani Nu [6] - The Celsius brand also saw a 9% revenue growth to $438.1 million, with unit sales increasing by 6% [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 68% to $0.47, exceeding the analyst consensus of $0.21 [7] Market Trends - Alani Nu's retail sales skyrocketed by 129%, with its market share nearly doubling to 6.3% [3] - Celsius's retail sales increased by 29%, with a sequential growth of 17.6% [5] - The company is witnessing a growing trend of female consumers in the energy drink market, similar to trends observed in North America [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates some margin pressure in the latter half of 2025 due to rising input costs, particularly from aluminum tariffs [8] - Increased marketing efforts, including a national TV commercial during NFL games, are planned to enhance brand awareness [8] - The integration of Alani Nu into PepsiCo's distribution network is expected to expand its retail presence [9] Valuation Considerations - The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 42.5 times 2026 analyst estimates, indicating a less attractive valuation compared to earlier in the year [11] - While there are positive growth opportunities with Alani Nu, the current valuation may be considered ahead of itself [12]

Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached $739 million, an 84% year-over-year increase, driven by Alani Nu's $301.2 million revenue contribution[31] - Gross profit for Q2 2025 was $381 million, an 82% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 51.5%[31, 32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 increased by 109% to $210 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.4%[31, 32] - Net income for Q2 2025 rose by 25% to $99.9 million[31, 32] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q2 2025 increased by 68% year-over-year to $0.47[31, 32] - For the first half of 2025, revenue was $1.07 billion, a 41% increase compared to the first half of 2024[15, 32] Market Position and Growth - Celsius Holdings' portfolio surpassed $4 billion in past-52-week tracked retail sales as of July 20, 2025[31] - The Alani Nu brand delivered +129% year-over-year retail growth and added +3.1 points of share in Q2 2025[31] - Celsius Holdings contributed 13% of all energy drink category growth in 1H 2025 and holds 99.3% ACV[15] - Celsius Holdings is the 3 energy drink portfolio in the U S with a total U S share of 16 8% in tracked channels in 1H 2025[15]

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings is experiencing a potential recovery after significant declines, driven by its niche in the energy drink market and recent acquisitions [1][2]. Company Overview - Celsius has established a lucrative niche within the energy drink industry by targeting fitness enthusiasts rather than competing directly with larger brands like Red Bull and Monster Beverage [4]. - The company’s distribution agreement with PepsiCo in August 2022 significantly boosted sales, leading to a 75% increase in quarterly revenues since the agreement [5]. Financial Performance - Celsius stock has declined over 60% since its peak in early 2024 but has increased over 50% since the beginning of the year [2]. - In Q1 2025, Celsius reported revenue of $329 million, a 7% year-over-year decline, which is an improvement from a 31% decline in Q3 2024 [9]. - The company’s comprehensive income in Q1 2025 was $37 million, down from $63 million in the same quarter the previous year [9]. Market Position - Celsius holds approximately 11% market share, ranking third in the energy drink market, and leads in the health and fitness-oriented niche [6]. - The forward P/E ratio of 50 reflects a recovery from historical lows, suggesting a more favorable valuation compared to the peak P/E ratio of 125 [8]. Growth Prospects - Analysts forecast a 60% revenue growth in 2025, primarily due to the acquisition of Alani Nu, but expect a slowdown to 21% growth in 2026 [10]. - International sales, which accounted for 7% of revenue in Q1 2025, grew by 41% annually, indicating significant potential for future growth [10][11]. Investment Outlook - Despite potential overvaluation indicated by the forward P/E ratio, Celsius stock is considered a long-term buy due to expected demand growth and international market expansion [12][13]. - The company’s growth story is seen as ongoing, with international sales likely becoming a primary revenue driver over time [13].