Automatic Data Processing (NasdaqGS:ADP) Q2 2026 Earnings call January 28, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsMaria Black - President and CEOMatthew Keating - VP of Investor RelationsPeter Hadley - CFOConference Call ParticipantsAshish Sabadra - AnalystBryan Bergin - AnalystBryan Keane - AnalystDan Dolev - AnalystDan Jester - AnalystKartik Mehta - AnalystMark Marcon - AnalystRamsey El-Assal - AnalystScott Wurtzel - AnalystTien-tsin Huang - AnalystOperatorGood morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different payment schedules for employees, which can vary from weekly to monthly [1] Group 1: Investment Insights - Scott Kaufman, known as Treading Softly, has over a decade of experience in the financial sector and focuses on providing actionable insights into high-quality dividend growth and undervalued investment opportunities [1] - The goal is to achieve a robust total return through cash dividends and strong capital gains [1]

Core Insights - Dividend aristocrats often focus on well-known companies, but there exists a lesser-known tier that has consistently raised dividends for 30 to 50+ years [2] - Companies that can increase dividends annually for decades demonstrate strong business models capable of withstanding economic challenges [3] Company Highlights - **Abbott Laboratories**: - Raised dividends for 54 consecutive years with a current yield of 2.00% and an annual dividend of $2.52 [4] - The company has a 7.14% dividend growth rate and a 30.15% payout ratio, indicating strong cash flow management [4] - Operates in diverse sectors including diagnostics and medical devices, which mitigates single-market risks and supports long-term earnings growth [5] - **Hormel Foods**: - Achieved 60 consecutive years of dividend increases, yielding 5.07% with an annual dividend of $1.17 [8] - The company has a modest 2.20% dividend growth rate, but the high starting yield contributes to an attractive total return profile [8] - **Automatic Data Processing**: - Offers a 10% dividend growth rate supported by stable payroll revenue, which remains resilient during economic downturns [7]

Group 1: Market Trends - After the tariff announcement on April 2, the US stock market quickly priced in a recessionary regime, eliminating the possibility of a "Goldilocks" (moderate growth) scenario. This trend has since reversed, with the probability of the Goldilocks regime returning to March's average level [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) continues to decline, while OECD leading indicators show the economy remains in a late cycle but has not yet exited the expansion phase. The REVS regime favors late-cycle defensive sectors like communication services, but as leading indicators weaken, preferences may shift more towards utilities [2] Group 2: Earnings Adjustments - Almost all sectors have seen downward revisions in sales and earnings expectations, but the pace of these adjustments has slowed. The sectors with the largest downward revisions include automotive, durable goods, and building materials. The dispersion in earnings scores indicates the presence of alpha opportunities in the market [3] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Forward price-to-earnings ratios have mostly rebounded, returning to a "growth optimism" range. The US stock market's valuation remains higher than other global regions, with dollar-denominated earnings outperforming Europe by 10%, exceeding long-term trends [4] Group 4: Sentiment Analysis - Utilities and consumer staples sectors maintain positive sentiment. UBS crowding data indicates a persistent overweight position in the US market, although it has decreased from March's peak. The significant rotation from cyclical consumer stocks (durable goods and automotive) to defensive sectors (like consumer staples) has not fully normalized [5] Group 5: Top and Bottom Rated Stocks - The highest-rated stocks based on the REVS framework include Intercontinental Exchange, Virtu Financial, and Broadcom, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 10.9% to 37.3% [6] - The lowest-rated stocks include Ziprecruiter, Bioxcel Therapeutics, and Jetblue Airways, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 0% to 3.6% [7]

Core Insights - Human capital management (HCM) stocks are gaining investor interest amid fears of a trade war and rising Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which have negatively impacted broader market indexes [1] - HCM solution providers, particularly those offering payroll services, are expected to remain resilient against tariff impacts, with consistent demand driven by a stable unemployment rate around 4% [2] Paychex Insights - Paychex CEO John Gibson indicated that there are no recession signs in the company's data, with a fundamentally healthy labor market despite market uncertainties [3] - Paychex's total sales are projected to rise by 4% in fiscal 2025 and by another 5% in fiscal 2026, reaching $5.81 billion, with annual earnings expected to increase by 6% this year and another 6% in fiscal 2026 to $5.30 per share [4] ADP Insights - ADP, a leader in cloud-based HCM solutions, is forecasted to see its top line expand by 6% in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, exceeding $21 billion, with EPS projected to rise by 8% in fiscal 2025 and by 9% in fiscal 2026 to $10.82 [6] Stock Performance - Paychex and ADP shares have increased by 7% and 3% respectively in 2025, providing a defensive hedge for investors as broader indexes have faced declines, with the S&P 500 down 4% year-to-date and the Nasdaq down 10% [9] Cintas Insights - Cintas, while not a payroll service provider, has attracted investor interest due to its growth narrative, with its stock up 11% year-to-date, driven by demand for its specialized business services [10] - Cintas has consistently exceeded earnings expectations and has seen over 300% gains in stock performance over the last five years [11] Conclusion - Monitoring payroll companies like Paychex and ADP is crucial for insights into economic conditions and potential recession risks, while Cintas may also provide valuable economic indicators [14]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The stock market has been significantly affected by tariff policies discussed by President Trump, with market indexes declining between 2.5% to 5% over the past five days due to the potential imposition of tariffs of 20% or 25% on major trading partners [1] - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the White House may consider reducing tariffs based on compliance with the U.S. MCA trade policy, particularly affecting domestic automakers [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP private-sector payrolls report showed an increase of only 77,000 jobs in February, which is about half of the expected 148,000 and the lowest since July of the previous year [4] - Goods-producing jobs increased by 42,000, outperforming the services sector, which added only 36,000 jobs [5] - Small firms lost 12,000 positions, while large companies gained 37,000 and medium-sized businesses added 46,000 jobs, with the Leisure & Hospitality sector leading job growth [6] Group 3: Wage Growth Metrics - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of 4.7% year-over-year, while Job Changers saw a 6.7% increase, indicating a slight decrease from the previous month [7] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Reports - Anticipated economic reports include the final S&P Services PMI for February, expected to approach the growth threshold, and Factory Orders for January, which are projected to show a positive swing after a previous decline [8]