Truist Financial has adjusted the price target for Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) from $22 to $21, reflecting a cautious market outlook.Olin Corporation's stock has experienced a decrease of $2.99 or approximately -12.45%, indicating market volatility.The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted its financial performance, with a focus on strategic direction amidst market fluctuations.Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) is a leading manufacturer of chemicals and ammunition, operating in three segments: Chlor Alkali ...

Economic Impact - The US government shutdown is in its fourth week, affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and the September payroll report [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Trade Relations - Markets are focused on US-China trade talks, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by November 1 [2] Sanctions - The Trump administration has announced sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest oil producers, due to insufficient commitment to peace in Ukraine, which may restrict their access to international financial systems [3] Company Performance - Molina Healthcare's stock has dropped over 20% after it cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast from $19.00 to $14.00, significantly below the consensus of $18.65 [4][15] - International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than 3% after reporting a 14% increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit, which was below the expected 16% [4][19] - Tesla's stock is down more than 3% after reporting Q3 EPS of 50 cents, below the consensus of 54 cents [4][19] - Las Vegas Sands reported Q3 net revenue of $3.33 billion, exceeding the consensus of $3.04 billion, leading to a stock increase of over 12% [16] - Dow Inc. reported Q3 adjusted operating Ebitda of $868 million, surpassing the consensus of $759.7 million, resulting in an increase of over 9% in its stock [16] Market Trends - The S&P 500 Index is up 0.38%, with the Dow Jones up 0.12% and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.61% [7] - The Q3 earnings season shows rising corporate earnings expectations, with 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, indicating a strong quarter [8] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year [8] Interest Rates - The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [9] - The 10-year T-note yield is up 3.2 basis points to 3.982%, influenced by inflation concerns due to a 5% surge in WTI crude oil prices [10]

Economic Impact - The US government shutdown is in its fourth week, affecting market sentiment and delaying key economic reports, including unemployment claims and the September payroll report [1] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1] Trade Relations - Markets are focused on US-China trade talks, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by November 1 [2] Sanctions - The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest oil producers, due to insufficient commitment to peace in Ukraine, which may restrict their international business operations [3] Company Performance - Molina Healthcare's stock has dropped over 20% after revising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast down to $14.00 from $19.00, below the consensus of $18.65 [4][12] - International Business Machines (IBM) is down more than 4% after reporting a smaller-than-expected increase in its Q3 hybrid cloud unit [4][15] - Tesla's stock is down more than 3% after reporting Q3 EPS below consensus [4][15] Market Movements - Stock indexes are rising, led by energy producers, following a more than 5% increase in WTI crude oil prices due to sanctions on Russian oil companies [5] - Dow Inc. is up more than 11% after reporting Q3 adjusted operating EBITDA of $868 million, exceeding the consensus of $759.7 million [5][13] - Honeywell International's stock is up more than 5% after reporting Q3 sales of $10.41 billion, surpassing the consensus of $10.15 billion [5][14] Earnings Season - The Q3 earnings season is ongoing, with 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating forecasts, indicating a strong quarter since 2021 [5] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year [5] Interest Rates - Markets are anticipating a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [6] - T-notes are under pressure due to inflation concerns, with a 5% surge in WTI crude oil prices raising inflation expectations [7][8]

Thursday morning, Dow reported an adjusted per-share loss of 19 cents from sales of $10 billion. Wall Street was looking for a 31-cent loss from sales of $10.2 billion. ...

A worker scoops up the plastic pellets prior to melting and molding. Photographer: James MacDonald/Bloomberg Lone Star Funds is in advanced talks to acquire plastic parts and equipment maker Hillenbrand Inc., people familiar with the matter said. The private equity firm could announce a purchase of Batesville, Indiana-based Hillenbrand as soon as this week, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Most Read from Bloomberg Shares of Hillenbrand closed ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chemicals industry** in **North America** and discusses the impact of tariffs on various sectors within this industry [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Volatility Ahead**: The industry is expected to face a volatile period reminiscent of the early COVID pandemic, with uncertainties in earnings models, risk-reward frameworks, and price targets [2] - **Local-for-Local Dynamics**: Chemicals are primarily produced locally or are net exporters from low-cost US production, with significant imports in fertilizers and crop chemicals from regions like the Middle East, India, and China [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The impact of tariffs on demand across diverse end markets (agriculture, automobiles, construction, etc.) is highlighted as a critical KPI, especially for products where the US is a net importer [3][7] - **Fertilizer Market**: The US is a large importer of fertilizers, with potash already exempt from tariffs under USMCA. There is speculation that nitrogen and phosphate may also be exempt due to the US's lack of self-sufficiency in these areas [9] - **Consumer Behavior**: Changes in consumer behavior, such as pantry loading, are anticipated to influence demand significantly [2] Additional Important Content - **Petrochemical Complexity**: The petrochemical sector is noted for its complexity, with demand shifts and energy price movements affecting companies like Dow and LyondellBasell. The demand for polyethylene is expected to remain resilient during recessions [11] - **Paint & Coatings Resilience**: Companies in the paint and coatings sector, particularly those without auto OEM exposure, have shown better performance. Lower raw material costs could benefit these companies if energy prices stabilize [12] - **Agribusiness Outlook**: The escalating trade conflict is viewed as a net negative for agribusiness, with potential retaliation risks from China being more limited this time. The US's increased soy crush capacity may shift focus from retaliation risks to soybean meal and oil [10] - **Valuation Methodologies**: Specific price targets for companies like Corteva Inc. ($65) and Ecolab Inc. ($280) are based on projected EBITDA multiples, reflecting historical trading ranges [13][14] Risks Identified - **Downside Risks**: The potential for lower demand due to economic conditions, raw material cost inflation, and competition from generic crop chemicals are highlighted as significant risks [17][22] - **Upside Risks**: Factors such as conservative management targets, potential market share gains, and favorable pricing dynamics could present upside opportunities [16][20] Conclusion - The Chemicals industry in North America is navigating a complex landscape influenced by tariffs, consumer behavior, and global trade dynamics. Companies are advised to monitor these developments closely to identify potential investment opportunities and risks [1][2][3][10]

Core Insights - During market turbulence, investors often seek dividend-yielding stocks, which typically have high free cash flows and offer substantial dividends [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Analyst Insights - Dow Inc. has a dividend yield of 7.87% with an Overweight rating maintained by JP Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas, who reduced the price target from $47 to $40, and Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison, who cut the price target from $55 to $50 [7] - Huntsman Corporation has a dividend yield of 6.22% with an Overweight rating maintained by JP Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas, who lowered the price target from $25 to $22, and Wells Fargo analyst Michael Sison, who also cut the price target from $25 to $22 [7] - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company has a dividend yield of 4.63% with an Overweight rating maintained by Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey, who slashed the price target from $85 to $80, and JP Morgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas, who reduced the price target from $85 to $80 [7] Group 2: Recent Company News - Dow Inc. announced the pricing of its cash tender offer on March 11 [7] - Huntsman Corporation reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue on February 17 [7] - The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported a first-quarter adjusted loss per share of 89 cents, which was narrower than the expected loss of $1.23 on January 29 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dow Inc. has become the highest-yielding stock in the S&P 500 with a dividend yield of 7.7%, but investors need to assess the company's ability to sustain this payout amid a challenging economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment and Company Performance - Dow Inc. is experiencing a severe cyclical slowdown, with stock prices down over 29% in the last year, leading to a significant decline in margins due to weak global demand and intense competition [1][6]. - The company operates in various end markets, making it vulnerable to economic fluctuations and competition, particularly as it produces commodity products with little pricing power [3][4]. - Dow's operating income has significantly decreased from $7.89 billion in 2021 to an estimated $1.91 billion in 2024, indicating a challenging financial landscape [9]. Group 2: Dividend Sustainability - Dow aims for its dividend payments to comprise 45% of operating income, but it has not met this target since 2021, with capital returns exceeding operating income in the last two years [8][9]. - The company plans to maintain dividend payments of around $2 billion in 2025, which aligns with its historical payout, despite the current economic downturn [11][12]. - Management has indicated that maintaining the dividend is a top priority, as 65% of shareholders rely on it, and there is manageable debt in the near term [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the economic cycle begins to shift positively, Dow could potentially align its dividend payments with its operational income goals [13]. - Investors are advised to monitor signs of a cycle shift, as prolonged economic downturns could lead to challenges in sustaining dividend payments in the future [14]. - For investors with a three- to five-year horizon, Dow may present an opportunity as a potential recovery play and a source of passive income [15].

Investment Thesis - Dow Inc. offers a high dividend yield of 7.8%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of approximately 1.2% [2] - The company has a diversified business model with a market capitalization of $25 billion, operating across major chemical segments [3] Buy Recommendation - The recent announcement of a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share maintains the same level since the 2019 separation from DowDuPont, appealing to income-focused investors [2] Sell or Avoid Recommendation - Dow Inc. is not suitable for investors seeking a growing income stream, as the company is unlikely to become a dividend growth stock due to the volatile nature of the chemicals industry [4] - The company is undergoing a business model revamp, including asset sales and partnerships, which introduces uncertainty, especially with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% [5] - The high yield is partly a result of weak business performance, with a 2% year-over-year sales decline in Q4 2024 and a 4% sequential decline from Q3 2024 [6] Hold Recommendation - Holding Dow Inc. may be justified for investors who believe in the company's efforts to improve its business through asset sales and partnerships, which could lead to better performance [8] - The stock has lost about one-third of its value over the past year, making holding a contrarian position, as most analysts have a negative outlook on the company's future [9] Overall Assessment - Dow Inc. presents a high yield but lacks strong business performance, with management actively seeking ways to reduce debt and enhance performance [10] - The company is not currently viewed as an attractive investment compared to other high-yield stocks [10]

The most recent trading session ended with Dow Inc. (DOW) standing at $36.23, reflecting a +1.34% shift from the previouse trading day's closing. The stock outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.91%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 1.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 1.96%.Coming into today, shares of the materials science had lost 6.56% in the past month. In that same time, the Basic Materials sector lost 3.32%, while the S&P 500 lost 7.38%.Market participants will be closely following t ...