本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T2NIIAGQ7KZU阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 （彭博行业研究）——极端天气重创农作物、牲畜与供应链，恐将导致ADM和邦吉等农业巨 头蒙受数亿美元的巨额损失。与此同时，气候风险与监管新规也为那些未雨绸缪、大力投身 抗旱作物及替代蛋白等植物基产品研发的企业，创造了前所未有的发展机遇。 极端天气之下 农业企业首当其冲 彭博行业研究 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 就各公司、行业和市场提供全球投研分析以及交互式 数据。在 环境、社会与治理（ESG） 方面，BI研究立于行业前沿，聚焦热门话题，为您分享 关键洞察。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博ESG双周报 本期主题：气候风险演变不息 农业企业迎来新机遇 供应链中断、资产受损以及保费飙升——极端天气带来的冲击，或将使ADM与邦吉等公司付 出沉重代价。ADM预计，潜在的财产损失、运输中断和货运开支上涨，可能造成高达7 . 2亿 美元的营收损失与成本。干旱与酷热天气已在全球范围摧毁了大量农作物，从2 0 2 4年缅甸的 玉 米 到 2 0 2 3 年 日 本 的 水 稻 ， 更 令 阿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iran and Switzerland are seeking to expand cooperation in non-sanctioned sectors, with a focus on industrial collaboration and investment opportunities in Iran's free trade zones [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The President of the Iran Chamber of Commerce (ICCIMA), Hassan Zadeh, emphasized the potential for collaboration in various industrial fields, particularly those not affected by sanctions [1] - Iran's economic and industrial capabilities can enhance cooperation not only in economic terms but also in cultural, academic, and social domains [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Iran's free trade zones present attractive investment opportunities for Swiss companies [1] - Despite sanctions, Iran has made significant advancements in advanced technology, knowledge-based industries, petrochemicals, polymers, and medical manufacturing [1] Group 3: Resource Potential - Iran's rich mineral resources, including precious metals and decorative stones, can open new avenues for Swiss investment [1] - The emphasis on identifying mutual capabilities aims to promote business interactions between the private sectors of both countries [1]

Core Insights - The Asian petrochemical industry is facing significant challenges due to weak demand, oversupply, geopolitical fluctuations, and volatile crude oil prices [2][4] - The olefins sector is particularly concerning, with profitability remaining in negative territory for several years, and a potential recovery not expected until after 2030 [2][3] - Capacity reductions are underway in Japan and South Korea, with Japan planning to close three naphtha steam cracking units by 2028, reducing ethylene capacity by approximately 20% [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see long-term demand growth, but short-term challenges are anticipated due to tariff-induced volatility, with a projected 25% decline in chemical demand growth in 2025 [3] Industry Challenges - The current market fundamentals are characterized by weak demand and oversupply, compounded by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to uncertainty in raw material procurement [2][4] - The olefins market is expected to take 3 to 4 years to address the oversupply issue, with significant capacity reductions needed to impact the global supply landscape [3] - Recent shutdowns of approximately 4 million tons per year of cracking capacity have occurred, but further closures of 20 or more units are necessary for substantial market impact [3] Raw Material Procurement - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are exacerbating uncertainty in raw material procurement for Asian petrochemical producers, with crude oil prices dropping from nearly $100 per barrel in 2024 to below $70 recently [4] - The expected oil price for 2026 is around $65 per barrel, prompting producers to be more cautious in their raw material selection [4] Strategic Solutions - One proposed solution is the construction of Crude Oil to Chemicals (COTC) projects, which leverage integration advantages to simplify logistics and reduce costs [5] - COTC facilities allow producers to flexibly switch between fuel and chemical production based on market demand, enhancing operational flexibility [5] - However, the ongoing downturn in the petrochemical sector is impacting downstream investments, making it challenging for new projects to achieve returns in the short to medium term [5] Trade Dynamics - The global trade flow of petrochemical products has shifted significantly over the past five years, with a nearly 35% decline in global trade volume, particularly in aromatics [5] - Asia has emerged as a leader in aromatics production, while the U.S. is focusing on ethylene glycol and polymers, indicating a potential reshaping of global trade patterns [5]

Core Insights - The total output value of industrial parks in Azerbaijan has increased by 62.5 times over the past decade [1] - In 2015, the total output value was 270 million manats (approximately 160 million USD) [1] - By the first half of 2025, the total output value reached 17.2 billion manats (approximately 1.012 billion USD) [1] Export Products - Major export products include construction chemicals, steel, lubricants, polymers, urea, cables, glass panels, tiles, tobacco products, yarn, electrodes, fish feed, wallpaper, and footwear [1] - The export market spans over 70 countries and regions, including Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, North America, South America, and the CIS [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal chemical industry, focusing on two leading companies: Baofeng Energy and Hualu Hengsheng. Baofeng represents modern coal chemical pathways, producing petrochemical products like polymers, while Hualu Hengsheng is rooted in traditional coal chemistry, producing fertilizers and organic amines, and is actively transitioning into new energy and new materials [1][2]. Key Points on Baofeng Energy - Future growth for Baofeng Energy is anticipated from the Ningxia Four Enterprises project and a 4 million ton project in Xinjiang. If approved, this will significantly increase capacity and lower costs using advanced technology, potentially doubling net profits [1][3]. - Baofeng's recent performance includes a methanol-to-olefins capacity of 5.2 million tons, with several projects launched in Yinchuan and Inner Mongolia, showing strong second-quarter results [2]. Key Points on Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng has successfully transitioned from a single urea business to a comprehensive chemical leader, producing various fertilizers, organic amines, acetic acid, and new materials through technological innovation and market expansion [1][4]. - The company’s core competencies include self-generated electricity and steam, integrated production advantages, cost-effective gasification technology, geographical proximity to coal sources, and efficient management practices [7]. - Hualu Hengsheng has demonstrated resilience in different market cycles, achieving a peak ROE of 33% and a net profit margin of 27% during high periods, while maintaining a 12% ROE and over 10% net profit margin during downturns [8]. Product Market Analysis - **Urea**: Hualu Hengsheng has a urea capacity of approximately 2.7 million tons, with domestic prices around 1,750 RMB/ton, significantly lower than international prices exceeding 3,000 RMB/ton, indicating a disparity in profitability [10]. - **Acetic Acid**: The company has a capacity of 1.2 million tons, with stable demand from downstream sectors. However, the industry faces challenges with new capacity additions expected in 2025 [12]. - **DMF**: With a capacity of 400,000 tons, DMF's market is currently underperforming due to low operating rates and historical price lows [13]. - **Adipic Acid**: Hualu Hengsheng's capacity is 520,000 tons, with a projected domestic consumption of 1.8 million tons in 2024. The market is expected to improve slightly due to no new capacity additions in the next two years [14]. - **DMC and Oxalic Acid**: DMC has a competitive edge due to its application in new energy, while oxalic acid is experiencing rapid demand growth, with plans for capacity expansion [16][17]. Future Growth and Investment Outlook - Hualu Hengsheng is undergoing a gasification project to reduce costs and enhance profitability, with plans for new projects in TDI and formic acid, indicating potential for future earnings growth [18]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with annual profits exceeding 3 billion RMB, allowing for consistent dividends and employee stock incentives, resulting in a dividend yield of 2-3% [19]. - Overall, Hualu Hengsheng is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its cost competitiveness, product positioning at historical lows, and proactive expansion into new products [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-value utilization of carbon dioxide as a significant approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote green low-carbon development, highlighting the upcoming 2025 Liquid Sunshine Industry Development Forum as a platform for sharing advancements in this field [2]. Group 1: Forum Organization and Structure - The forum is organized by DT New Energy, supported by the Green Methanol Ecological Alliance and Geely Holding Group, and hosted by Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd [3]. - The forum will take place from September 24 to 26, 2025, in Dalian, Liaoning, with specific requirements for report submissions, including evaluations and qualifications for presenters [3][4]. Group 2: Topics and Discussions - The forum will feature ten reports focusing on cutting-edge technologies related to carbon dioxide high-value utilization, including catalytic conversion, electrochemical reduction, and the production of green fuels and high-performance materials [6][12]. - Key discussion topics will include advancements in carbon dioxide capture technologies, methanol production catalysts, and the integration of biomass gasification with green hydrogen for methanol production [8][12]. Group 3: Networking and Collaboration Opportunities - Participants will have opportunities to engage with leading experts in the field, facilitating face-to-face communication with relevant enterprises [10]. - The forum aims to create a platform for precise matching between green methanol project providers and international demand, promoting the export of green methanol products and fostering international cooperation [14]. Group 4: Previous Forum Success - The previous four editions of the Liquid Sunshine Industry Development Forum have attracted over 1,500 industry representatives and nearly 100 authoritative experts, showcasing the forum's influence and commitment to advancing the liquid sunshine technology sector [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive guide on material selection based on various mechanical properties such as Young's modulus, strength, and cost, emphasizing the importance of choosing the right materials for specific applications. Group 1: Young's Modulus and Density - When hard materials are needed, such as for top beams or bicycle frames, materials at the top of the chart should be selected [2] - For low-density materials, such as packaging foam, materials on the left side of the chart are recommended [2] - Finding materials that are both rigid and lightweight is challenging, and composite materials are often a good choice [3] Group 2: Young's Modulus and Cost - For hard materials, the top materials in the chart should be chosen for applications like top beams and bicycle frames [14] - For low-cost materials, those on the left side of the chart are preferred [14] - If a cheap and hard material is required, materials in the upper left corner of the chart, mostly metals and ceramics, should be selected [15] Group 3: Strength and Density - The strength indicated in the chart refers to tensile strength, with ceramics showing compressive strength [26] - High-strength and low-density materials are located in the upper left part of the graph [26] - Strength is a critical indicator of a part's ability to resist failure under load [26] Group 4: Strength and Cost - The strength indicated is tensile strength, except for ceramics which indicate compressive strength [38] - Many applications require materials with high strength, such as screwdrivers and seat belts, but these materials are often expensive [38] - Only a few materials can meet both strength and cost requirements, typically found in the upper left part of the chart [38] Group 5: Strength and Toughness - The strength indicated is tensile strength, while ceramics indicate compressive strength [50] - Typically, materials with poor toughness also have low strength; increasing strength may reduce toughness [50] - Strength measures a material's ability to resist external forces, while toughness measures its ability to absorb energy before failure [50] Group 6: Strength and Elongation at Break - Ceramics have very low elongation at break (<1%); metals have moderate elongation (1-50%); thermoplastics have high elongation (>100%) [61] - Rubber exhibits long-term elastic elongation, while thermosetting polymers have low elongation (<5%) [61] Group 7: Strength and Maximum Working Temperature - The chart applies to components used in environments where working temperatures exceed room temperature, such as cookware and automotive parts [73] - Polymers have lower maximum working temperatures, metals have medium, and ceramics can withstand very high temperatures [73] Group 8: Specific Strength and Specific Stiffness - Specific strength is defined as strength divided by material density, while specific stiffness is stiffness divided by material density [84] - High strength and high stiffness usually coexist, as they largely depend on the bonding forces between atoms [84] Group 9: Resistivity and Cost - The chart is primarily for selecting materials that require low prices and good electrical insulation or conductivity [97] - Good electrical conductors are typically good thermal conductors, while good electrical insulators are good thermal insulators [97] Group 10: Recyclability and Cost - The chart identifies materials' recyclability features, especially for expensive and recyclable materials [108] - Metals are particularly suitable for recycling due to ease of sorting and remelting, while ceramics are rarely recycled [108] Group 11: Production Energy Consumption and Cost - The energy consumed in producing a material is a factor in raw material costs, with most materials located in the low-cost/low-energy or high-cost/high-energy quadrants [121] - Metals often require significant energy for extraction, such as aluminum production consuming a substantial portion of total energy in the U.S. [123]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the Direct Air Capture (DAC) industry, indicating an expected growth rate exceeding 10% compared to the benchmark index [3][9]. Core Insights - The DAC technology offers significant advantages in carbon removal by capturing CO₂ directly from the atmosphere, with the captured CO₂ being permanently transformed, stored, or utilized. Compared to traditional carbon capture methods, DAC is more flexible and easier to deploy due to its smaller scale and modular construction [2][3]. - The DAC market is projected to exceed USD 1.7 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.9% from USD 62 million in 2023 [3][4]. - The average global DAC carbon removal cost has decreased by 54% from 2023, reaching USD 316 per ton in 2024, which is lower than previously estimated costs [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The DAC industry is supported by significant government backing in Europe and the U.S., with the U.S. Department of Energy announcing up to USD 1.8 billion in funding for DAC facilities in 2024 [3][4]. - Major companies like Microsoft and TikTok have signed contracts for carbon removal, indicating strong demand for DAC services [3]. Technology and Cost - Solid adsorption materials are identified as the core component of DAC technology, with a market size projected to reach approximately USD 500 million by 2030 [5]. - The report highlights that 65% of DAC companies are using or developing solid adsorbents, which are more energy-efficient compared to liquid methods [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies in the solid adsorption materials sector, particularly Blue Sky Technology, which has established strategic partnerships and is scaling up production [5].