Nvidia has a mixed bag of post-earnings results in the last two yearsSubscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, February 22. “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation” is a popular political adage, even if it’s been declawed recently. Because I will never stop trying to merge my liberal arts degree with the stock market, let’s workshop a similar adage for Wall Street, in lockstep with the obscene market concentration toward large cap tech titans: “as Nvidia goes, so goes Wall Street.” Nvid ...

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - Silver has experienced a significant price increase, moving from $65 to $82.67, with a year-to-date rise of over 160% [13] - China is set to restrict the export of refined silver starting January 1, which may impact global supply dynamics [13] - The sentiment around silver is currently not in the extreme zone, unlike in 2011, indicating potential for further price movements [13] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider holding long-term positions while also implementing protection strategies, such as cash or Treasury bills [11][12] - A protection band strategy is suggested, where conservative investors may opt for a higher cash allocation, while aggressive investors may choose a lower cash level [12][14] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy may need adjustment, focusing on high-quality bonds and shorter-duration bonds [16] Group 3: Market Trends and Money Flows - Negative money flows have been observed in major stocks, including Apple, Amazon, and Tesla, as well as in ETFs like SPY and QQQ [7][8] - The popularity of silver among investors has surged, with a notable shift of some bitcoin holders selling their bitcoin to invest in silver [10]

Market Overview - The economic calendar for today is light, with key data including weekly jobless claims and October trade balance expected at 8:30 AM [1] - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on bank supervision and regulation at 12:00 PM, which may cause short-lived market volatility [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY opens at 684.50, with buyers aiming to establish support; a successful push could lead to 685.60 and potentially 687.90 if momentum strengthens [3] - If SPY falls below 684.50, sellers may drive the price down to 683.35, with further breakdowns possible to 681.00 [4] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ starts at 623.75, with bulls looking to stabilize; a successful lift could lead to 624.85 and potentially 628.30 if tech sentiment improves [5] - A drop below 623.75 could see sellers push the price down to 622.60 and possibly lower [6] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL begins at 284.00, with buyers aiming to support this level; a rise to 285.70 is possible if momentum builds [7] - If AAPL loses 284.00, it may drop to 283.10, with further declines possible [8] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT opens at 479.75, with bulls trying to generate support; a successful move could lead to 482.00 and beyond [9] - A fall below 479.75 could see MSFT drop to 478.55 and potentially lower [10] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA starts at 180.25, with buyers looking to stabilize; a bounce to 182.00 is possible if support holds [12] - If NVDA loses 180.25, sellers may push the price down to 179.40 and further [13] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL opens at 320.75, with bulls aiming to maintain this level; a rise to 321.70 is possible if momentum continues [14] - A slip below 320.75 could lead to a drop to 319.75 and potentially lower [15] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META begins at 645.00, with buyers trying to create stability; a rise to 646.60 is possible if strength holds [16] - If META loses 645.00, it may drop to 643.30 and further [17] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA opens at 449.75, with bulls aiming for early momentum; a successful push could lead to 451.10 and beyond [18] - A fall below 449.75 could see TSLA drop to 448.35 and potentially lower [18]

Core Insights - New sanctions on Russian oil are imposed on major companies Lukoil and Rosneft, restricting their ability to conduct business internationally, particularly affecting sales to India and China [7] - The sanctions are expected to reduce oil supply, potentially increasing prices, but there is a risk of Russian oil being sold at a discount in the black market [7] - The U.S. dollar's status as the reserve currency enables the enforcement of these sanctions, impacting global transactions involving Russian oil [7] Oil Market Analysis - The VUD indicator shows a strong net demand for oil, with the market sentiment indicating that oil is currently undervalued compared to other assets like stocks and gold [7] - Investors should be cautious as rising oil prices could lead to increased inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [7] - Airlines and cruise lines may face negative impacts from rising oil prices, affecting their operational costs [7] Quantum Computing Sector - Government interest in quantum computing stocks has led to initial spikes in stock prices, but gains have diminished due to the small scale of potential government investments and lack of high-level discussions [7] - Companies like IONQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are highlighted as key players in this sector [7] Sentiment and Market Trends - The sentiment among the "momo crowd" has shifted from extremely positive to negative, impacting stock performance [5] - Money flows in major stocks like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are positive, while flows in NVIDIA and Tesla are negative [6][8] - The overall market sentiment remains in the positive zone, influenced by the momo crowd's activities [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant buying activity in Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) stock, driven by a short squeeze and the U.S. government's intention to acquire up to a 10% stake in the company [7] - It highlights the contrast between LAC and MP Materials Corp, emphasizing that while MP received government support and contracts, LAC does not have similar arrangements for lithium sales [7] - The overall market sentiment is described as extremely positive, with aggressive buying behavior observed, which is typically a contrary indicator suggesting caution for new strategic positions [7] Group 1: Company Overview - Lithium Americas Corp is a Canadian lithium miner and majority owner of the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, with General Motors holding a minority stake [7] - The U.S. Department of Energy has previously agreed to provide Lithium Americas with a $2.2 billion loan, but this may lead to shareholder dilution as the government seeks equity [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trends - The article notes that the current buying frenzy in LAC stock is indicative of extreme positive sentiment and high liquidity in the market [7] - It warns that such extreme sentiment often serves as a contrary indicator, suggesting that investors should be cautious about initiating new positions [7] - The article also mentions that insider selling is prevalent in stocks experiencing aggressive buying from the "momo crowd," indicating a potential disconnect between retail and institutional investor behavior [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows strong performance, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.8%, durable orders up by 2.9%, and initial jobless claims at 218,000, all exceeding consensus expectations [7] - This strong economic backdrop challenges the narrative of weakness that some market participants have used to justify aggressive buying [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the extreme euphoria surrounding Oklo Inc's stock, driven by speculation about potential nuclear power contracts in the U.K. that were not announced during President Trump's visit [5] - Oklo is developing smart modular reactors aimed at providing nuclear power for AI data centers, which positions it as a significant player in the energy sector [5] - The article highlights the implications of the current market sentiment, indicating that extreme positive sentiment is a contrary indicator suggesting caution for investors [5] Company Overview - Oklo Inc is focused on developing smart modular reactors for nuclear power, particularly for AI data centers [5] - The company has gained attention due to its leadership, including former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Energy Secretary Chris Wright on its board [5] Market Dynamics - Prior to President Trump's U.K. visit, Oklo's market cap increased by $3.69 billion, followed by an additional $6.05 billion during and after the visit, bringing its total market cap to $19.96 billion [5] - Despite the speculation, no firm contracts for Oklo were announced during the visit, raising questions about the sustainability of the stock's euphoria [5] Investor Sentiment - The VUD indicator shows predominantly green, indicating net demand, which is unusual for a stock experiencing parabolic growth, suggesting extreme euphoria rather than a balanced market [5] - The article advises investors to be cautious when starting new strategic positions and to consider tactical trades instead [5] Broader Economic Context - The article discusses the potential impact of a new $100K fee for H1B visa applicants, suggesting it may not negatively affect growth or major tech companies in the long term [6][5] - Concerns are raised about the implications for the Indian stock market, but the analysis suggests a potential long-term positive outcome for India [6] Money Flow Insights - Early trading indicates positive money flows in Apple and Tesla, while negative flows are observed in Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta [8] - There is a noted shift of funds from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether into gold and silver ETFs, indicating changing investor sentiment [10]

Core Insights - There is a significant increase in money flowing into silver, with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) showing a breakout above its support zone and on track for its fifth consecutive positive month [14] - The gold to silver ratio is currently at 86, indicating that silver is undervalued relative to gold, which is historically significant given the Fed's easing policies [14] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving investment into precious metals, with a consensus anticipating a 25 basis point cut soon [14] Money Flow Analysis - Positive money flows are observed in major tech stocks such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla [6] - Neutral money flows are noted in Apple and Microsoft, while NVIDIA is experiencing negative flows [8] Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales data exceeded expectations, with headline retail sales at 0.6% compared to a 0.3% consensus, and retail sales excluding autos at 0.7% versus a 0.3% consensus [14] Investment Strategy - The strategy includes trading around positions in gold, silver, and precious metal miners during pullbacks, as money flows into these assets are expected to continue [14] - Investors are advised to maintain cash levels to capitalize on new opportunities while adjusting hedge levels accordingly [15]

Economic Overview - The economic calendar for September 15, 2025, is light, with the Empire Manufacturing data released at 8:30 AM ET, typically having a modest impact on the market [1] - The Treasury's 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction at 11:30 AM ET may cause minor yield adjustments but is not expected to have a major influence [1] Market Volatility - The week is anticipated to be volatile due to the FOMC rate decision, contract roll week, and triple witching on Friday, which could lead to significant market swings [2] - Traders are expected to position themselves for these events, potentially resulting in sharp market movements driven by anticipation or breaking news [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY is currently at 658.00, a strong support level, with a target to rise to 658.50, a resistance level that has shown resilience [3] - If SPY surpasses 658.50, it may reach 659.29, with a top target of 660.99 [3] - If selling pressure emerges, bears could challenge 657.44, with further declines potentially reaching 654.41 and 652.86 [4] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ is positioned at 587.00, a critical pivot point, with bulls targeting 587.50 as a firm intraday support [5] - If the upward trend continues, the next resistance level is 588.91, with a potential rise to 590.29 and a top target of 591.59 [5] - Should 587.00 falter, bears may target 586.15, with further declines possible down to 581.86 [6] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL is at 236.00, a resilient support level, with bulls aiming for 236.50 as the next resistance [7] - If momentum builds, AAPL could reach 237.13, with a top target of 238.76 [7] - If 236.00 weakens, bears may target 235.72, with further declines potentially reaching 231.36 [8] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT is grounded at 505.00, a notable support level, with bulls looking to advance to 505.50 [9] - If it climbs above 505.50, the stock could reach 506.57, with a daily peak target of 508.01 [9] - Should 505.00 slip, bears might test 504.10, with further pressure potentially dropping it to 498.89 [10] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA is situated at 175.00, a key level attracting trader interest, with bulls targeting 175.50 [11] - If the upward trend strengthens, NVDA could rise to 176.13, with a highest mark of 177.91 [11] - If 175.00 cannot hold, bears may aim for 174.92, with further declines potentially reaching 170.49 [12] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL is fixed at 243.00, a support level with historical significance, with bulls planning to rise to 243.50 [13] - If it breaks through, the next target is 244.29, with strong buying potentially stretching to 245.42 [13] - If 243.00 softens, bears may hit 242.39, with further declines potentially reaching 239.55 [13] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META is braced at 757.00, a solid base, with bulls targeting 757.59 as the next resistance [14] - If it holds, the next aim is 758.13, with robust buying potentially lingering near 759.59 [14] - If 757.00 wavers, bears might test 753.59, with further declines potentially reaching 749.13 [14] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA is set at 426.00, a significant level for bullish moves, with bulls eager to push toward 426.50 [15] - If it breaks through 426.50, buyers might nudge it to 427.29, with a top target of 427.15 [15] - If 426.00 weakens, bears could test 424.44, with further declines potentially reaching 418.86 [16]

Market Overview - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released at 8:30 AM ET, which is highly anticipated as it will provide insights into current inflation trends and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy [1] - Real Average Hourly Earnings for July will also be published simultaneously, adding context to inflation and wage growth [1] - Elevated volatility is expected around these events, particularly immediately following the CPI data release, with potential for quick price movements as traders react [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed non-voting member Thomas Barkin will speak at 10 AM ET, providing insights on the economy that may hint at the Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation [2] - Barkin's comments following the CPI release could influence market direction in equities and bonds [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY is currently around the 635.50 pivot, with a breakout level at 636.75 that could lead to further gains towards 638.29 and potentially 640.09 [4] - If SPY fails to attract buyers at 635.50, it may drop to 634.00, with further downside targets at 632.75 and 631.01 [5] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ is starting around the 572.50 zone, with a bullish breakout above 573.61 targeting 575.07 and potentially 578.04 [6] - A slip below 572.50 could lead to tests of support at 570.84 and further declines towards 569.20 [7] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL is trading near 226.50, with a breakout past 227.34 potentially leading to 227.68 and a bullish target of 229.89 [8] - A drop below 226.50 could see prices fall to 226.07 and further to 225.62 [9] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT is around 522.50, with bullish targets at 525.25 and 528.46 if it holds above 522.50 [10] - A decline below 522.50 could lead to targets at 519.74 and 517.74 [10] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA is near 181.50, with bullish targets at 182.75 and 185.17 if it holds above 181.50 [11] - A drop below 181.50 could lead to further declines towards 180.18 and 178.29 [12] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL is stabilizing around 200.50, with bullish targets at 201.64 and 203.37 [13] - A break below 200.50 could lead to declines towards 198.70 and 196.40 [13] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META is consolidating around 766.50, with bullish targets at 773.60 and 777.49 [14] - A drop below 766.50 could see prices fall to 760.89 and 753.02 [14] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA is trading close to 340.50, with bullish targets at 350.71 and 356.64 [15] - A decline below 340.50 could lead to further drops towards 333.79 and 322.38 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, focusing on Newmont Corporation (NEM) and broader economic indicators, highlighting potential investment strategies amid market fluctuations and government fiscal policies [15]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has shown an upward trend in stock price this year, with a notable gap up following earnings reports [15]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for NEM indicates a negative divergence, suggesting that internal momentum is slowing despite rising stock prices, which may lead to a potential pullback [15]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Durable goods orders fell by 9.3%, better than the consensus estimate of -11%, while durable goods excluding transportation rose by 0.2%, surpassing the expected -0.2% [15]. - The S&P 500 has recently achieved the longest series of record highs since December 2024, indicating a strong market performance, although this may lead to recency bias among investors [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio, considering a traditional allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, focusing on high-quality bonds with shorter durations [16]. - The article suggests that investors should hold sufficient cash to capitalize on new opportunities while adjusting hedge levels to manage risk effectively [13][10].