Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - OR Royalties achieved record annual revenues of $277.4 million in 2025, with record operating cash flow of $246 million and earnings of $1.10 per share, reflecting a cash margin of nearly 97% [4][5][8] - The company ended 2025 with $142.1 million in cash and was completely debt-free after paying off its credit facility [5][33] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.055, marking its 45th consecutive dividend, with over $279 million returned to shareholders to date [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, OR Royalties earned 80,775 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), with 95% of these coming from precious metals, primarily gold (65%) and silver (31%) [4][9] - The company had 22 producing assets at the end of 2025, with a significant portion of royalties coming from Tier One mining jurisdictions, including Canada, the U.S., and Australia [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 2025 was characterized by elevated precious metals prices, which significantly influenced revenue and earnings [4][8] - The breakdown of GEOs earned indicated a strong reliance on precious metals, with expectations for continued stability in production from key assets like Mantos Blancos and Canadian Malartic [9][10][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - OR Royalties emphasized a disciplined approach to capital allocation, completing only $25 million in royalty and stream acquisitions in 2025, while prioritizing value over volume [7][34] - The company plans to continue focusing on accretive value creation and will not pursue growth for its own sake [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting a strong cash position and the potential for growth through new acquisitions and existing asset ramp-ups [6][34] - The company expects marginal growth in GEOs for 2026, with significant increases anticipated in 2027 due to contributions from several key assets [25][26] Other Important Information - The company recently acquired a 1.5% NSR royalty at Buenaventura's San Gabriel Mine, which is expected to contribute significantly to GEOs from 2028 onwards [12][15] - The acquisition of the Gold Fields royalty portfolio is seen as a strategic move to enhance cash flow and long-term growth potential [14][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for year-over-year performance - Management explained that the methodology for 2026 guidance is consistent with previous years, using a consensus price deck of 73-to-1 for gold to silver ratios, with potential upside if silver prices remain stable [39][40] Question: Mine ramp-ups and production profile - Management indicated that there are no significant new ramp-ups beyond what has been disclosed, with Mantos Blancos being a key contributor to silver deliveries [41][42] Question: M&A opportunities and asset acquisitions - Management confirmed that there are significant opportunities for acquiring familiar assets and new portfolios, with a focus on maintaining a strong geographical presence in Canada, the U.S., and Australia [43][44] Question: Expected GEOs from specific assets in 2030 - Management stated that the 2030 guidance includes minimum payments from Cascabel and anticipates an aggregate upside of 20,000-30,000 GEOs from various assets [51][52] Question: Mantos production expectations - Management confirmed that expectations for Mantos are effectively flat compared to 2025 and 2026 [55][57]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Commodity Price Surge**: Commodity prices have increased significantly and are stabilizing at higher levels, impacting various sectors in China positively and negatively [1][11]. Positive Impacts - **Basic Materials Sector**: Beneficiaries include aluminum, copper, and lithium suppliers, with companies like Chalco, Hongqiao, and Zijin Mining receiving Buy ratings [2][1]. - **Gold Jewelry Sector**: Gold jewelers are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with brands in the high-end segment likely to gain market share [72][73]. - **CCL Players**: Companies in the copper-clad laminate (CCL) sector may see gross margin expansion due to rising copper prices [1][6]. Negative Impacts - **Automakers**: Mass-market battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are projected to face cost increases of Rmb6,565 and Rmb4,310 per vehicle, respectively, due to raw material price hikes [3][23]. - **Battery Industry**: Tier-2 battery makers are under pressure from rising raw material costs, while CATL is better positioned due to its bargaining power [4][27]. - **Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Solar Equipment**: Companies like Sungrow and Trina Solar are vulnerable to margin cuts due to increased costs of silver and copper [5][45]. - **Industrial & Robotics Firms**: Companies such as Johnson Electric and Hongfa Technology may experience earnings pressure from rising copper and silver costs [6][51]. - **Home Appliances**: Producers like Gree and Midea are facing margin reductions due to increased copper costs in air conditioning units [66][67]. - **Technology Sector**: Xiaomi is expected to see pressure on smartphone margins due to high memory costs, which account for 10-20% of the bill of materials [7][81]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Basic Materials**: The demand for aluminum and copper is driven by infrastructure development and the growth of AI, data centers, and electric vehicles [2]. - **Automotive Sector**: BYD and Geely are better positioned to absorb cost increases compared to smaller players like Xpeng and GAC [3][24]. - **Battery Makers**: Rising lithium prices have increased LFP battery cell costs by Rmb80/kWh, with significant pressure on margins expected [27][29]. - **ESS and Grid Equipment**: Pinggao is identified as the most vulnerable to commodity price increases, with a significant portion of its profits derived from gas-insulated switchgears [41][42]. - **Industrial Sector**: KBL is expected to benefit from the copper upcycle, with projected earnings growth significantly outpacing competitors [55][56]. Additional Considerations - **Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the PRC stock market in 2026 is optimistic, particularly for sectors like technology, healthcare, and basic materials [13]. - **Insurance Sector**: Gold price increases could benefit insurers participating in gold investment pilots, although current investments remain cautious [101]. Conclusion The report highlights the mixed impact of rising commodity prices across various sectors in China, with certain companies positioned to benefit while others face significant challenges. The insights provided can guide investment decisions in the context of the evolving market landscape.

Summary of the Conference Call for Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM) Company Overview - **Triple Flag Precious Metals** was formed in 2016 and operates in the royalty and streaming model, focusing on generating shareholder value through strategic asset acquisitions [doc id='23']. - The current market cap is approximately **$8 billion**, with **$1.8 billion** of shareholder capital invested, resulting in over **4x** returns [doc id='23']. Key Financial Metrics - **Annual GEO Production Guidance for 2025**: 105,000-115,000 ounces, with actual production reported at **113,000 ounces**, near the top end of the range [doc id='24']. - Projected production growth to **135,000-145,000 ounces** by 2029, driven by existing portfolio assets [doc id='25']. - The company has consistently increased its dividend since going public and is currently **debt-free** with available capacity for new investments [doc id='26']. Market and Industry Insights - The gold market is experiencing significant price appreciation, with gold prices reaching **$5,000** and silver at **$100** [doc id='3']. - The royalty and streaming sector has seen record corporate acquisitions, with **$9 billion** in transactions in 2025, nearly three times the volume from 2023 to 2024 [doc id='10']. - The company emphasizes the importance of operating in **tier one jurisdictions** (Canada, Australia, and the U.S.) to mitigate risks associated with nationalism and expropriation [doc id='6']. Strategic Differentiators - **Geographic Focus**: 80% of cash flow comes from tier one jurisdictions, providing stability and insulation from geopolitical risks [doc id='6']. - **Cash Margin**: The company boasts a **97% cash margin**, benefiting from rising gold and silver prices [doc id='7']. - **Growth Profile**: Anticipated **40% growth** over the next five years without contingent capital requirements [doc id='8']. Recent Developments and Acquisitions - The acquisition of **Orogen Royalties** included a **1% royalty on the Arthur Project** in Nevada, operated by AngloGold Ashanti, which is expected to be a tier one mine [doc id='53']. - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, ensuring that any acquisitions are accretive to shareholders [doc id='12']. Challenges and Market Positioning - Despite strong performance, the royalty and streaming companies underperformed compared to the gold index in 2025, with Triple Flag up **98%** compared to the gold index's **141%** increase [doc id='34']. - The management argues that while royalty companies may not provide the same short-term leverage as high-cost operators, they offer a high-margin, consistent dividend model with long-term growth potential [doc id='35']. Future Outlook - The company expects continued volatility in the commodities market, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, which may create opportunities for growth [doc id='42']. - There is a strong desire to deploy capital into new assets while maintaining a focus on risk management and shareholder value [doc id='62']. Conclusion - Triple Flag Precious Metals is well-positioned in the precious metals sector with a strong growth outlook, disciplined capital allocation strategy, and a focus on high-margin, low-risk assets in stable jurisdictions. The company aims to leverage its existing portfolio for future growth while navigating the challenges of the current market environment.

Summary of Jiangxi Copper 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK) - **Date of Call**: January 6, 2026 - **Participants**: Mr. Gong Kun, IR Manager Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Jiangxi Copper signed a long-term agreement with Antofagasta in December 2025, establishing a long-term TC/RC (Treatment Charge/Refining Charge) of **0** for 2026E, with a slight increase in recovery rate [1][2] - The company is in negotiations with other copper concentrate producers, anticipating similar TC/RC terms [2] Production and Raw Material Usage - Management expects a year-over-year decrease in the percentage of copper cathode output derived from copper concentrate in 2026E, with an increase in the use of crude copper as raw material [3] - Jiangxi Copper's improved bargaining power allows it to secure better TC/RC than the market spot price for copper concentrate [3] - There is an expectation that spot TC/RC could improve as Chinese copper smelters may reduce their consumption of copper concentrate in 2026E [3] Financial Performance and Acquisitions - The acquisition of SolGold has received approval from Chinese authorities and is pending shareholder approval, expected to be completed in the first half of 2026E [5] - The profitability of copper smelting using crude copper and copper anode has remained stable over the past two years [4] Pricing and Demand Factors - The price of sulfuric acid has reached approximately **Rmb 1,000/t** in Jiangxi since December 2025, with expectations for high prices in the short term due to strong demand, although further increases are unlikely due to government price control efforts [6] - Management anticipates mergers and acquisitions in the copper smelting industry in China, driven by government anti-involution efforts, with a slowdown in future capacity additions [7] Investment Outlook - Current share price is **HK$44.80** with a target price of **HK$39.80**, indicating an expected share price return of **-11.2%** and a total return of **-9.2%** [8] - Market capitalization is reported at **HK$155,130 million** (approximately **US$19,926 million**) [8] Risks - Potential downside risks include a slowdown in China's grid investment, a more significant than expected decline in property demand affecting copper prices, and rising mining or smelting costs [12] Additional Insights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating from analysts, reflecting confidence in its strategic positioning and market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Market Performance of Precious Metals - In 2025, gold, silver, and copper all experienced significant price increases simultaneously, marking the first occurrence in 45 years [3] - Gold prices rose by 69% to $4,331.90 per ounce, while silver surged by 157% to $72.25 per ounce, reaching a record high of $83.62 on December 28 [4] - Copper prices increased by 42% to $5.52 per pound, with a peak of $5.86 earlier in the trading session [6] Group 2: Mining Stocks and ETFs - Precious metals mining stocks, particularly gold miner ETFs GDX and GDXJ, saw extraordinary gains of 163.9% and 177.3% year-to-date as of Christmas Eve [8] - The performance of these mining stocks significantly outpaced the S&P 500's 17.9% increase, reflecting improved market psychology [8] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Gold's price surge was attributed to safe haven demand due to geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, central bank buying, and robust gold-backed ETF inflows [12] - Structural supply constraints have hindered the ability to meet demand for gold, silver, and copper without recycling [13] Group 4: BRICS and Gold's Role - The BRICS countries are moving away from the US dollar for international transactions, with gold becoming integral to their new settlement mechanism [14] - A pilot program for a gold-backed settlement "Unit" was launched within the BRICS+ bloc to facilitate trade without relying on the dollar [13][14] Group 5: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market has faced supply deficits for five consecutive years, with mine production falling to 813 million ounces [22] - Silver futures trading volume has approached that of gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics and increasing importance of silver as an investment asset [23][24] Group 6: Copper Market Insights - Copper is experiencing its largest annual price increase since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by fears of global shortages and supply chain uncertainties [33] - Demand for copper is expected to surge due to electrification and decarbonization efforts, particularly in data centers, which could increase copper demand by 30% next year [41][44] Group 7: M&A Activity in Mining Sector - The mining sector has seen significant M&A activity, with mining and metals accounting for approximately 37% of public deal activity in Canada as of September 30, 2025 [48] - High prices for gold, copper, and silver have driven a "buy vs. build" mentality among major producers, leading to increased M&A transactions [49] Group 8: Future Outlook for Mining - The demand for critical minerals is surging, with projections indicating that copper demand could double by 2035, leading to significant supply shortfalls [45] - The current wave of M&A in the mining sector is expected to continue, as companies seek to secure future resources amid rising prices and depleting reserves [55]

Group 1 - The company has prepaid its obligations under the 8% unsecured convertible debentures, paying a total of $2,106,250 plus accrued interest, settling debentures with a principal amount of $1,685,000 [1][2] - Following the redemption, the outstanding amount of the debentures is now $265,000, significantly reducing potential dilution from future conversions to equity and lowering the company's annual interest expense [2] - The company will incur a one-time cash charge of $421,250 on its statement of earnings during the current period due to this redemption [2] Group 2 - Elysee Development Corp. reported that Probe Gold Inc., one of its top ten investments, has received a takeover offer from Fresnillo Plc at a 39% premium compared to its closing stock price prior to the offer [3] - Another investment, Solgold Plc, has agreed to be acquired by Jiangxi Copper for $1.12 billion, which is approximately four times the average price paid by Elysee [3] Group 3 - The company has granted 250,000 incentive stock options to its directors and officers, exercisable at $0.50 per share for five years, with immediate vesting [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangxi Copper is "Buy" with a target price of HK$27.90, indicating an expected share price decline of 12.2% from the current price of HK$31.76 [6]. Core Insights - The long-term treatment charge and refining charge (LT TC/RC) for copper concentrate is expected to be lower year-on-year in 2026, reflecting a tight supply situation as the LT TC/RC covers approximately 80% of total purchased overseas copper concentrate in 2025, down from 90% in previous years [1][2]. - The company plans to avoid large-scale maintenance work for copper smelting capacity until the LT TC/RC price for the next year is determined, with an anticipated increase in the percentage of spot TC/RC in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the LT TC/RC price remains low [3]. - Management believes that the impact of anti-involution on the copper smelting industry will primarily affect new capacity rather than existing capacity, as copper demand is expected to continue increasing, thus limiting the impact on copper prices [4]. - The copper foil business is projected to incur a net loss in 2025, but strong orders for lithium battery copper foil since September 2025 are expected to improve profitability in 2026, despite processing fees not significantly increasing [5]. Summary by Sections Valuation - Jiangxi Copper's H-shares are valued at HK$27.90 based on a combination of discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-book (P/B) fair values, with a DCF valuation yielding an NPV-per-share of HK$32.90 and a P/B valuation yielding HK$22.90 [8].

Key Takeaways from Solar Glass Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the solar glass industry within the Greater China Materials sector, particularly in the Asia Pacific region [1] Core Insights 1. **Policy Controls**: - New capacity approvals for the solar glass industry are expected to be restricted, with no new approvals post-January 2024 for projects that have not started construction [2] - Stricter energy consumption standards may lead to the exit of smaller production lines [2] - Companies selling below the average production cost will face penalties, ensuring prices do not fall below this threshold [2] - Enhanced supervision and management are anticipated between companies and the industry association [2] 2. **Overseas Capacity Expansion**: - Current operating capacity overseas is approximately 11,000 tons per day (kt/d), projected to increase to around 20kt/d by the end of 2026 [3] - New production lines are planned in Southeast Asia, India, and North America [3] - Solar glass prices overseas command a premium of about 15% compared to the domestic market, with margins realized between 15-20% [3] - The price premium is expected to be sustained into 2026 due to stronger overseas demand and the timing of new line startups [3] 3. **Material Changes**: - The government has banned sodium pyroantimonate as a glass refining agent, now classified as a strategic metal [4] - Producers are testing alternative chemical compounds, which could potentially reduce refining agent costs by over 50%, although some reduction in module light transmittance is anticipated [4] 4. **Demand and Capacity Outlook**: - Demand in the second half of 2025 is impacted by the No.136 document released in February, which has reduced returns for ground-mounted power stations in China [9] - An estimated 15-17kt/d of capacity could start operations in 2026, but realistically only 12-13kt/d are likely to commence production next year [9] - Net capacity increase will be limited, with some lines expected to exit the market due to funding pressures from low profitability [9] - Operating capacity is projected to range between 83-93kt/d over the next 4-5 years [9] - Inventory levels have recently increased to approximately 24-25 days due to weakened demand and high market supply [9] - About 20-30% of capacity faces risks of exiting the market due to financial pressures [9] Additional Important Points - The insights were provided by Mrs. Wang, Shuai, a senior analyst at SCI, indicating a level of expertise in the field [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these insights in the context of investment decisions, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Morgan Stanley's business relationships [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Basic Materials, specifically focusing on Copper and Aluminium - **Current Trends**: Fundamentals are stable with an improving outlook for industrial metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as US rate cuts, US dollar weakness, and China's potential stimulus measures due to weak economic data [2][3] Core Insights - **Copper Market**: - Demand normalization post-tariff has not negatively impacted prices as anticipated in Q3 2025 [2] - UBS raised copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to US$4.37/lb and US$4.80/lb respectively [3] - Expected supply constraints and strong secular growth drivers (e.g., electrification) will support prices in 2026/2027 [3] - **Aluminium Market**: - Demand remains mixed, but supply constraints, particularly from China, are supporting prices [4] - Aluminium price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were increased by 5% and 2% to US$1.17/lb and US$1.18/lb respectively [4] Earnings and Price Target Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: - Increased earnings forecasts for Zijin, CMOC, and JCC by 4%-5% for 2025 and 5%-9% for 2026 due to higher price expectations for copper, aluminium, and gold [5] - Specific earnings adjustments include: - Zijin: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 46,519 million (+4%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 57,056 million (+9%) [19] - CMOC: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 17,504 million (+5%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 19,200 million (+6%) [19] - **Price Target Changes**: - Price targets for key companies were raised, including: - Zijin H: Target increased by 9% to Rmb 35.4 [19] - CMOC H: Target increased by 6% to Rmb 17.5 [19] - Hongqiao: Target increased by 4% to Rmb 28.0 [19] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with a reduced risk of a near-term demand slowdown [2] - Potential for restocking in developed markets could support prices as traditional end markets recover [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include Zijin, JCC, Hongqiao, and Tianshan based on revised earnings and price targets [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Drivers**: The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic themes rather than physical market tightness in supporting metal prices [2] - **Equity Rotation**: There is a noted equity rotation into mining stocks, indicating investor confidence in the sector's recovery [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium markets, along with specific company performance forecasts and investment recommendations.

29 August 2025 | 8:01PM HKT China Weekly Kickstart A-shares rallied 3% while MSCI China lost 1%; We raised CSI300 index target; CPPCC National Committee is drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan CSI300 gained 2.7% on record volumes and outperformed MSCI China (-0.8%). We expect the liquidity-driven rally in A shares to extend and raise our CSI300 12-month index target to 4900. CPPCC National Committee held the 13th session to draft the country's 15th Five-Year Plan. The State Council issued opinions to deepen the ...