Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Latin American (LatAm) market, particularly regarding investment opportunities and risks in the region's economies and industries for 2026 [4][9][14]. Core Insights - **Investment Shift**: There is a significant potential for growth in LatAm markets after years of underperformance. Countries that transition from consumption and leverage to investment are expected to see the highest growth. Mexico is noted for its early advantage in nearshoring, while Brazil presents the best risk-reward scenario [4][9]. - **Policy Changes**: A shift away from populism towards fiscal responsibility is observed across several LatAm countries, which could lead to a new earnings cycle and improve the risk-reward balance for equity investors [13][14][17]. - **Equity Performance**: Brazilian equities have risen approximately 53% year-to-date and could increase another 20% while still being at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10x. A policy shift could further reduce the cost of capital by 2-3 turns [9][20]. - **Investment Cycle**: The key to revitalizing LatAm economies is reigniting an investment cycle, which is essential for developing a new investment narrative. The current consumer cycle is seen as nearing its end, necessitating a focus on investment-led growth [18][20]. Country-Specific Insights - **Brazil**: Currently experiencing fiscal consolidation and policy confidence, with a focus on investment growth. The country is running out of fiscal road, and the investment narrative is crucial for future growth [18][20]. - **Mexico**: The USMCA negotiations are critical for the nearshoring narrative. The market has rallied significantly, but earnings growth remains muted, and the investment narrative is closely tied to USMCA developments [25][28]. - **Argentina**: Faces significant challenges with a weaker capital market but has potential for growth if an investment cycle can be established [4][9]. Risks and Challenges - **Consumer Cycle Limitations**: The consensus view suggests that the consumer cycle may be reaching its limits, and without meaningful fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, equities may continue to underperform [16][20]. - **USMCA Uncertainty**: The negotiations surrounding the USMCA are complex, and there is a material probability of a bear case scenario that could delay the nearshoring narrative and investment growth in Mexico [25][28][37]. - **Fintech Disruption**: In the banking sector, fintech companies are challenging traditional banks in Mexico, potentially leading to a significant reduction in profitability for incumbents if they are forced to raise deposit yields [87][97]. Investment Recommendations - **Equity Strategy**: The recommendation is to remain overweight in Brazil and Argentina, equal-weight in Mexico, and focus on sectors such as financial services, digitalization, energy, and nearshoring [23][70]. - **Cautious Approach**: A cautious stance is advised for agribusiness in Brazil due to current pressures on commodity prices and farmer margins, with a preference for selective exposure [74][80]. Conclusion - The LatAm market is at a pivotal point with potential for significant growth driven by policy shifts and investment cycles. However, challenges remain, particularly in the context of USMCA negotiations and the rise of fintech in the banking sector. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors poised for growth while remaining cautious of the broader economic landscape [4][9][20][87].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights Shopee's promotional activities during the 7.7 sales period and recent changes in merchant fees, emphasizing the importance of tracking Shopee in Brazil as a key discussion point among buyers [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Sea with a target price of $186, noting that Shopee's shipping discounts in Indonesia have increased while product discounts remain stable [1] - Price sampling indicates that Shopee's overall subsidy levels are consistent compared to June, with Shopee maintaining a price competitiveness of approximately 6% lower than TikTok for consumers [1] Group 2 - In Brazil, most products on Shopee are priced lower than those on MELI, particularly for generic unbranded items, with a minimum purchase coupon of 10 reais existing since Q1 2025 [1] - Shopee is increasing promotional efforts in Malaysia while reducing them in Thailand and Vietnam, where competition with TikTok is historically intense [2] - Starting July 20, Shopee will introduce a fixed processing fee of 1,250 Indonesian rupiah (approximately $0.08) per order in Indonesia, indicating a broader industry trend towards enhancing profitability [2]

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