Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has not broken down, suggesting that if the four-year cycle is indeed disrupted, the current bear market may conclude sooner than expected [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - James Foord, an economist with a decade of experience, leads The Pragmatic Investor, which focuses on creating diversified portfolios to preserve and grow wealth [1]. - The Pragmatic Investor covers various sectors including global macro, international equities, commodities, technology, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to assist investors at all levels [1]. - The platform offers features such as a portfolio, weekly market updates, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room for investor engagement [1].

SLV Climbs as Reddit Bears Wave the White Flag - 24/7 Wall St.[S&P 5006,887.80 -0.05%][Dow Jones49,157.40 -0.02%][Nasdaq 10024,959.90 -0.08%][Russell 20002,650.61 -0.04%][FTSE 10010,714.00 +0.29%][Nikkei 22558,012.80 +0.14%][Investing]# SLV Climbs as Reddit Bears Wave the White Flag### Quick ReadiShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose 5.16% to $73.32 last week. SLV has gained 145% over one year.SLV climbed despite bearish Reddit sentiment. Traders closing short put positions created forced buying pressure.SLV colla ...

Key Takeaways Strategy holds 717,131 BTC, about 3.4% of the total supply, reinforcing its treasury strategy.MSTR added 225,000 BTC in 2025 and raised $25.3B to fund continued purchases.MARA and TSLA expand Bitcoin holdings, increasing competitive pressure on MSTR.Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is rapidly scaling its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, reinforcing a structurally bullish long-term outlook. The company now holds 717,131 BTC acquired at a total cost of $47.5 billion, representing roughly 3.4% of Bitcoin’s tot ...

The company sold more common shares to buy $40 million worth of bitcoin, even as its total holdings are more than $8 billion in the red. ...

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⚡️LATEST: MICHAEL SAYLOR MAKES $1 MILLION BITCOIN PREDICTION"If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million."@Saylor's @Strategy currently holds 717,131 $BTC valued at approx $49 billion. ...

🚨MICHAEL SAYLOR UNFAZED BY $BTC DROP — "IF IT'S NOT GOING TO ZERO, IT'S GOING TO A MILLION"@saylor remains bullish while $BTC sits at ~$66K, proving price volatility doesn't shake his conviction in the slightest.Is a million possible? https://t.co/aDjS4Shlw4 ...

Bitcoin Holdings and Strategy - As of February 13, 2026, the company held approximately 717,131 bitcoins, acquired at an aggregate purchase price of $54.5 billion, with an average purchase price of approximately $76,027 per bitcoin[29]. - The market price of one bitcoin on February 13, 2026, was reported at $68,734, indicating a potential unrealized loss on the company's bitcoin holdings[29]. - The bitcoin acquisition strategy involves using proceeds from capital raising transactions, including offerings of Class A common stock and preferred securities, to acquire bitcoin[31]. - The company actively manages its bitcoin holdings and capital structure to maintain long-term durability, liquidity, and flexibility[35]. - The company evaluates its bitcoin strategy continuously based on market conditions, capital structure, and anticipated cash resource needs[25]. - The capital management strategy focuses on achieving accretive acquisitions of bitcoin while managing cost of capital and financial obligations[37]. - The concentration of assets in bitcoin limits the company's ability to mitigate risks through diversification[122]. - The ability to execute the bitcoin strategy relies heavily on obtaining favorable equity and debt financing[123]. - The company may need to sell bitcoin to satisfy financial obligations if unable to secure timely equity or debt financing[113]. Financial Performance and Risks - For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, the unrealized loss on digital assets was $5.40 billion, partially offset by a deferred tax benefit of $1.55 billion[110]. - The fair market value of bitcoin holdings has fluctuated between $65,000 and $120,000 in the past year, indicating high volatility[120]. - The company experienced significant fluctuations in operating results, with quarter-to-quarter comparisons not indicative of future performance[108]. - The company incurred an unrealized gain on digital assets of $3.89 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, highlighting the volatility in bitcoin pricing[128]. - The price of bitcoin has historically been highly volatile, influencing the company's financial results and market price of listed securities[130]. - The company incurred $4.06 billion of cumulative impairment on its bitcoin holdings through December 31, 2024, reflecting the volatility of bitcoin prices[145]. - The company faces enhanced regulatory scrutiny due to its bitcoin strategy and holdings, particularly from the SEC[155]. - The company is subject to significant legal, commercial, regulatory, and technical uncertainties regarding digital assets, which could adversely affect bitcoin's price[133]. Regulatory Environment - The SEC approved the first U.S. spot bitcoin ETPs in January 2024, expanding access through regulated investment vehicles[59]. - Regulatory actions and evolving laws may materially affect the nature of digital asset markets and the company's bitcoin strategy[71]. - The CFTC considers bitcoin a commodity under the Commodity Exchange Act, allowing for broad enforcement against market manipulation[72]. - Regulatory changes reclassifying bitcoin as a security could classify the company as an "investment company," imposing additional regulatory controls[181]. - The regulatory environment for digital assets is evolving, with potential new laws and enforcement actions that could impact the company's ability to hold and transact in bitcoin[159]. Custody and Security Risks - The company faces counterparty risks related to custodians, which could inhibit ownership rights and access to bitcoin holdings[125]. - The company has implemented measures to mitigate counterparty risks but remains vulnerable to potential insolvency of custodians[125]. - The company does not maintain separate insurance for potential bitcoin losses, exposing it to significant risks in case of custodial insolvency[179]. - As of December 31, 2025, custodians maintain commercial insurance coverage of $320 million, $100 million, and over $100 million for bitcoin losses, which is insufficient to cover the entirety of the company's bitcoin holdings[179]. - Security breaches and cyberattacks in the bitcoin ecosystem could lead to a loss of confidence and adversely affect the company's financial condition[174]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin consistently ranks among the most liquid traded assets globally, with substantial daily trading volume across spot and derivatives markets[58]. - The emergence of stablecoins and government-backed digital currencies could negatively impact bitcoin's price and market position[64]. - A December 2022 study estimated that wash trading averaged over 70% of reported volume on unregulated exchanges, indicating potential manipulation in the bitcoin market[163]. - In 2022, several major participants in the bitcoin ecosystem, including Celsius Network and FTX, filed for bankruptcy, leading to significant declines in bitcoin prices[165]. - The market for bitcoin is highly uncertain, with factors such as institutional demand and public familiarity potentially affecting its price[139]. Company Operations and Structure - The company had a total of 1,539 employees as of December 31, 2025, with 448 based in the United States and 1,091 internationally[98]. - The company completed a 10-for-1 stock split of its class A and class B common stock on August 7, 2024, retroactively adjusting all applicable share information[105]. - The company’s cloud solution for government achieved FedRAMP authorization, ensuring compliance with essential cloud security and data protection standards[82]. - The company offers its analytics platform in both on-premises product licenses and cloud subscriptions, with full support for on-premises licenses ending December 31, 2026[85]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with various third-party vendors, including cloud hosting providers and consulting firms, to extend its platform's reach[87]. Technology and Innovation - The Strategy One platform is designed for medium to large enterprise deployments, delivering real-time insights across web, mobile, and custom applications[80]. - The company’s AI-powered data modeling capabilities accelerate data product creation and enhance performance across workloads[78]. - The integration of AI into enterprise analytics products may incur substantial costs and could result in reputational harm if AI tools produce inaccurate analyses[194]. - The company faces risks related to changes in third-party software or systems, which may require substantial capital investment to maintain software interoperability[200]. - Software errors, bugs, or security vulnerabilities could lead to reduced demand and revenue, as well as potential litigation claims against the company[201]. Compliance and Legal Risks - The company is subject to various privacy and data protection laws, including the GDPR, which imposes significant compliance requirements and potential fines[95]. - Compliance with complex government contracting requirements may expose the company to civil and criminal penalties if not adhered to[212]. - The company has implemented policies to comply with anti-money laundering and sanctions laws, but risks regulatory proceedings if bitcoin is acquired from bad actors[156][157]. - Customer agreements may limit the company's exposure to product liability claims, but these provisions may be unenforceable in certain jurisdictions[202]. - The company's intellectual property is valuable, and any inability to protect it could reduce the value of its offerings and brand[203].

Core Insights - MicroStrategy (MSTR) has experienced a significant decline in stock value, losing 62.66% over the past year and 28.22% in the last month, primarily due to the drop in Bitcoin prices [1] - The company holds 713,502 bitcoins with a cost basis of $76,052 per coin, while Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,840, indicating that the company is underwater on its investment [1] - MicroStrategy reported a net loss of $12.44 billion for Q4 2025, driven by $17.44 billion in unrealized losses on digital assets [1] Company Performance - MicroStrategy's stock price fell from $173.71 a month ago to $125.20, reflecting a 27.93% decline that mirrors Bitcoin's struggles [1] - The company's substantial Bitcoin holdings are valued at $59.75 billion against a cost basis of $54.26 billion, indicating a precarious financial position [1] - The bearish sentiment surrounding the stock is reflected in a Reddit sentiment score of 34.76 for the week and 28.53 for the month, with discussions turning skeptical about the company's strategy [1] Market Sentiment - Despite the negative sentiment, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, with eight out of thirteen rating the stock as a "Strong Buy" and a consensus price target of $369.08, suggesting a potential upside of 196% from current levels [1] - The company has raised $25.3 billion in capital during 2025 to fund its Bitcoin purchases, making it the largest U.S. equity issuer for the second consecutive year [1] - CEO Phong Le is focused on expanding the STRC preferred stock program to drive Bitcoin-per-share growth, maintaining that current market weakness is temporary [1]

2月19日，步入 2026 年 2 月中旬，全球金融市场呈现出显著的避险特征，比特币（BTC）在美股开盘后 迅速下挫并失守 67000 美元整数关口。NCE 外汇表示，当前数字资产与传统科技股的联动性已达到阶 段性高点，特别是被视为行业风向标的 iShares 科技软件 ETF （IGV） 持续走弱，直接对比特币的短期 估值构成了下行压力。周二 IGV 指数再度录得 3% 的跌幅，这种板块性的资金流出迅速蔓延至数字资 产领域，迫使比特币打破了此前在 68000 美元至 70000 美元区间维持的震荡格局。 从行业深度来看，相关调研认为软件板块的集体挫败主要源于人工智能（AI）技术的颠覆性影响。随 着 AI 工具的快速迭代，传统软件服务商的商业护城河正面临重塑。由于市场认知中常将比特币归类 为"软件属性"资产，这种逻辑关联导致了恐慌情绪的共振。NCE 外汇通过数据监测发现，纳斯达克与 标普 500 指数分别回落 0.8% 和 0.6%，而 MicroStrategy 及各大矿企股票也普遍出现 4% 至 5% 的跌幅。 这表明在宏观不确定性面前，投资者正在重新审视科技类资产的估值逻辑，风险偏好短期内明显收缩。 2 ...