Core Viewpoint - CSX has experienced significant merger-related activities, which may have distracted investors from focusing on the company's core business performance [1] Company Performance - CSX stock has increased approximately 8% over the past 12 months, indicating a positive trend in its market performance [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/16 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | | 前値 | 1656 | 1147 | 2188 | 1250 | 3033 | 1690 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.54% | 4.21% | 1.37% | 5.84% | 3.13% | 1.72% | | 발 TE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1956 | 3232 | | | | | | | 前値 | 1795 | 3143 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.97% | 2.83% | | | | | tel Hol 新 iii ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market expects a concentrated rush to ship before April 1st, which will advance the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year. Subsequently, this part of the export volume will decline. The rush to ship may temporarily alleviate the post - holiday decline in freight rates, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush to ship need to be verified. As the subsequent export decline leads to a contraction in cargo volume, the futures market is more suitable for positive spread operations. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. Their corresponding daily changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has set Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy and become the most significant legal setback since his return to the White House [5]. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers transferring under Russian flag protection [5]. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased their capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush to ship has begun on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route. Some market observers believe that there are signs of "frontloading" in addition to seasonal demand, while others think that the cargo volume in January is still within the normal historical range [5]. 3.3 Market Quotes - **Spot Price**: The GEMINI quotes of Maersk in the fourth week of January showed differentiation. The Shanghai - Rotterdam quote was 2700 dollars/FEU (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period), while the quotes from Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk dropped to 2400 dollars/FEU (230 dollars lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and its quote center fell to 2300 - 2700 dollars/FEU. The OA quotes were unstable in the first half of January. In the second half, EMC quoted 2800 - 2950 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, still at a high level but with reduced price - holding strength. YML quoted 2600 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, lower than OA and MSC, and did not follow Maersk's price cut for the time being. MSC's quote in the second half of January was 2840 dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price reduction [6]. 3.4 Impact of Policy Adjustment on the Shipping Market - The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. It is estimated that before April 1st, the cargo volume on the European route will increase by about 30,000 TEU due to the rush to ship, which is expected to consume the capacity of two 15,000 - TEU ships. After April, third - party institutions predict that the monthly freight volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - POSCO Holdings recorded consolidated revenue of 17.3 trillion and operating profit of 640 billion, showing improvement in operating profit for three consecutive quarters despite losses at POSCO E&C [1][2] - The operating profit margin for the quarter was 6.6%, driven by increased sales volume and proactive cost-cutting efforts [1][8] - Operating profit for POSCO improved from 322 billion in Q4 of last year to 585 billion in Q3 of this year, despite a 1.7% drop in revenue due to declining sales prices [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the steel sector, production volume increased by 4.9%, but the average selling price dropped, leading to a decrease in revenue [8] - In rechargeable battery materials, losses narrowed sharply quarter-over-quarter due to increased cathode sales volume and a price rebound in lithium operations [2][10] - POSCO E&C faced significant one-time costs of 288.1 billion due to the Shenzhen incident, with an additional 230 billion expected in Q4 [10][64] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic steel market demand is slowing, with imports flooding the market prior to the AD ruling, impacting sales prices [8][20] - Overseas steel profits are expected to decline moderately due to poor performance in Mexico and India, while steady performance is anticipated in Indonesia and Vietnam [9][10] - The lithium market is projected to see increased demand, with expectations of 14 million EVs next year, leading to a potential increase in lithium prices [51][52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - POSCO Group is focused on creating a safe workplace through comprehensive safety management innovations and plans to establish a safety master plan [3][6] - The company aims to ramp up new plants and improve process efficiency in lithium operations while ensuring disciplined execution to avoid additional costs [2][31] - Future investments will prioritize environmental projects and overseas capacity additions, particularly in high-growth markets like the U.S. and India [30][31] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the complexities of external uncertainties affecting the operating environment and expressed optimism for a recovery in steel profits in 2026 [1][9] - The company is preparing for the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and is actively developing strategies to mitigate its impact [21][22] - Management expects to return to normal profitability levels in POSCO E&C by next year after accounting for one-time losses [10][64] Other Important Information - POSCO Group has restructured seven projects, generating 400 billion in cash, and completed 63 projects since early 2024, generating 1.4 trillion in cash [7] - The company is committed to enhancing safety measures and has launched a task force to improve workplace safety [4][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Steel market outlook for Q4 and anti-dumping effects - Management indicated that the impact of anti-dumping measures would be difficult to assess immediately, but they expect some positive effects from the real estate market in late Q4 [19][20] Question: Response to carbon-related costs and EU regulations - Management acknowledged the potential increase in costs due to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and emphasized ongoing communication with the EU to address uncertainties [21][22] Question: Update on Alaska LNG project and its impact - The project is under review, and if realized, it could supply about 300,000 tons of steel, with operations expected between 2026 and 2028 [24] Question: Mid to long-term steel strategies - Management confirmed plans to increase overseas capacity and shut down non-competitive domestic facilities while focusing on new growth areas [28][30] Question: Update on lithium operations and market demand - Management reported that ramp-up for lithium operations is expected to be completed by early next year, with anticipated increases in lithium prices and demand [55][59]

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