Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market expects a concentrated rush to ship before April 1st, which will advance the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year. Subsequently, this part of the export volume will decline. The rush to ship may temporarily alleviate the post - holiday decline in freight rates, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush to ship need to be verified. As the subsequent export decline leads to a contraction in cargo volume, the futures market is more suitable for positive spread operations. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. Their corresponding daily changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has set Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy and become the most significant legal setback since his return to the White House [5]. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers transferring under Russian flag protection [5]. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased their capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush to ship has begun on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route. Some market observers believe that there are signs of "frontloading" in addition to seasonal demand, while others think that the cargo volume in January is still within the normal historical range [5]. 3.3 Market Quotes - **Spot Price**: The GEMINI quotes of Maersk in the fourth week of January showed differentiation. The Shanghai - Rotterdam quote was 2700 dollars/FEU (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period), while the quotes from Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk dropped to 2400 dollars/FEU (230 dollars lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and its quote center fell to 2300 - 2700 dollars/FEU. The OA quotes were unstable in the first half of January. In the second half, EMC quoted 2800 - 2950 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, still at a high level but with reduced price - holding strength. YML quoted 2600 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, lower than OA and MSC, and did not follow Maersk's price cut for the time being. MSC's quote in the second half of January was 2840 dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price reduction [6]. 3.4 Impact of Policy Adjustment on the Shipping Market - The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. It is estimated that before April 1st, the cargo volume on the European route will increase by about 30,000 TEU due to the rush to ship, which is expected to consume the capacity of two 15,000 - TEU ships. After April, third - party institutions predict that the monthly freight volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term European line is expected to be volatile, and the main contract's valuation is under pressure after a pull - back [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the freight rate of the container shipping index for the European line will peak in mid - to late January. Multiple factors, including spot freight rates, political - economic situations, capacity supply, and demand, affect the freight rate trend. The short - term European line shows an oscillating pattern, and there is a risk of further downward movement in freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot freight rates**: They have a positive impact. Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January are differentiated. Some shipping companies like Hapag - Lloyd and EMC have different price trends, with some showing price drops and others maintaining high prices but with weakened price - holding power [3]. - **Political - economic factors**: They are considered neutral. The US Supreme Court's potential ruling on Trump's global tariff policy, the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers in the US - Venezuela situation, and the peak shipping season in the Asia - Europe route with increased capacity deployment are all influencing factors [3]. - **Capacity supply**: It has a negative impact. The weekly average capacity has been increasing from 2025 to 2026, with 270,000 TEU in November 2025, 300,000 TEU in December 2025, and 313,000 - 321,000 TEU in January 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: It has a positive impact. At the end of 2025, the container shipping demand for the European line remained strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates, supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and European importers' replenishment needs [3]. - **Trading strategy**: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes in the spot market, including the European line index, the US - West line index, and the US - East line index, through charts [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over a long - term period, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet and new - order volumes [11]. - **Delivery volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [14][16]. - **Demolition volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [15][17]. - **Future delivery**: It forecasts the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and annual data [20][22][23]. - **Ship prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand price of container ships with different loading capacities, and their price indices [27][29][33]. - **Existing capacity**: It shows the existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, proportion, age, and idle/retrofit ratio, including data for different loading capacities and age groups [42][45][46]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship schedule**: It shows the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61]. - **Desulfurization tower installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships, TEU, and average age and duration of installation, as well as the average speed of container ships [67][68][71]. - **Idle capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofit ships [75][76][79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is to "observe" [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a downward trend. Spot price quotes are differentiated, and some shipping companies have lowered freight rates, breaking the expectation of consistent price support. The new EU ETS regulations push up compliance costs to form support, but the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and weak European demand limit the upside space. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and port turnover, and be alert to the risk of further decline in freight rates [6][7] Group 3: Summary of Specific Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1647 | 1656 | -0.54% | | CCFI | 1195 | 1147 | 4.21% | | SCFI - West US | 2218 | 2188 | 1.37% | | SCFIS - West US | 1250 | 1301 | -3.92% | | SCFI - East US | 3128 | 3033 | 3.13% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1719 | 1690 | 1.72% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1795 | 1742 | 3.04% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 3232 | 3143 | 2.83% | [4] Spot Prices - Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January were differentiated. The quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam was 2700 US dollars/FEU (a month - on - month increase of 100), and the quotes from Ningbo to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Gdansk dropped to 2400 US dollars/FEU (230 lower than the European base port). - Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and the central quote dropped to 2300 - 2700 US dollars/FEU. - OA's quotes were loose in the first half of January. EMC's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2800 - 2950 US dollars/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. - YML's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2600 US dollars/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and temporarily did not follow Maersk's price cut. - MSC's quotes in the second half of January were 2840 US dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's downward adjustment [7] Group 4: Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time point to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the Trump tariff is ruled illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers shifting under the protection of the Russian flag. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush has begun on the Asia - Pacific - Northern Europe route, and there are signs of "frontloading" [5]