Reston, Virginia-based NVR, Inc. (NVR) operates as a homebuilder in the U.S. Valued at $21.2 billion by market cap, the company builds single-family detached homes, town homes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and other trade names. NVR provides a number of mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers and to other customers through its mortgage banking operations. Shares of this homebuilding giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. NVR has gained ...

Core Viewpoint - ProShares SQQQ is designed to profit when the Nasdaq-100 declines, but its daily rebalancing mechanism leads to significant long-term losses, making it suitable only for short-term tactical plays [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - SQQQ gained 6.2% year-to-date as tech stocks faced pressure from higher interest rate concerns [1] - Over the past year, SQQQ dropped 42.3%, illustrating the decay effect from daily rebalancing despite the Nasdaq-100's modest rise [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance of SQQQ is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly whether it maintains a restrictive stance or signals a dovish pivot [1] - Tech valuations are sensitive to real interest rates, with higher rates leading to downward repricing of growth stocks, benefiting SQQQ [1] Group 3: Leverage Mechanics - SQQQ employs 3x daily leverage, which creates a compounding problem over time, making its performance over longer periods unpredictable [1] - The fund's daily reset means that during volatile markets, the expected returns may not align with the 3x inverse of the Nasdaq-100's movement [1]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations with an EPS of $7.54 compared to the expected $6.67, and the company projected 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion [1] - The company's Mounjaro revenue increased by 110% to $7.4 billion in Q4, while Zepbound revenue rose by 123% to $4.2 billion [1] - Eli Lilly's operating margins reached 45.6% and net margins were at 31.7%, indicating strong financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's stock was trading at $1,040, just 5.8% below its all-time high as of February 13, 2026 [1] - Retail sentiment shifted from neutral to bullish, with a sentiment score increase from 57.3 to 65.7 following the earnings report [1] - Analysts maintain a consensus target price of $1,201, with some projecting a higher target of $1,350 based on the company's growth potential [1] Strategic Initiatives - Eli Lilly has committed $1 billion to develop a supercomputer in collaboration with Nvidia to enhance drug discovery processes [1] - The establishment of a co-innovation lab with Nvidia aims to integrate clinical data with advanced computational capabilities [1] - The company has built a $1.5 billion stockpile of orforglipron, anticipating an FDA decision in April 2026, positioning itself for market capture [1] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's GLP-1 franchise is outperforming competitors, with significant revenue growth compared to Novo Nordisk, which is facing projected sales declines of 5% to 13% in 2026 [1] - The company's quarterly revenue growth was reported at 42.6%, indicating strong momentum in its product pipeline [1]

Core Viewpoint - SoundHound AI (SOUN) has experienced a significant decline in stock value, dropping 51% over the past year and 13% last week, raising concerns about its path to profitability ahead of its upcoming earnings report on February 26, 2026 [1]. Performance Summary - SoundHound's stock fell 12.85% this week, closing at $7.46, while the S&P 500 gained 11.81% over the same period [1]. - The company's year-to-date decline stands at 25.18%, contrasting with the S&P 500's flat performance [1]. - SoundHound has a market cap of $3.13 billion with trailing twelve-month revenue of $148.4 million, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 21x, indicating high growth expectations [1]. Storyline One: Earnings Uncertainty - The upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report is expected to show sales of $53.88 million, up from $42.05 million in the previous quarter, with an adjusted EPS forecast of -$0.10 [1]. - If the company meets or misses these expectations, further selling pressure may occur [1]. Storyline Two: Insider Selling - On December 22, 2025, six executives sold shares at $11.2769, including CEO Keyvan Mohajer, who sold 144,326 shares for approximately $1.6 million [1]. - There have been no open market buys recorded in the past three months, with 10 sales, indicating a cautious sentiment among insiders [1]. Storyline Three: Competitive Valuation - SoundHound competes with larger tech companies like Alphabet, which trades at 9.3x sales with a profit margin of 32.8%, while SoundHound's valuation assumes it can maintain its niche against competitors [1]. - Wall Street estimates a -$55 million EBITDA for 2026, necessitating significant margin improvements or scale to achieve profitability [1]. - Analysts have set an average price target of $16.31, suggesting over 100% upside potential if the company can execute effectively [1].

Core Viewpoint - Materials stocks have surged over 20%, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) providing a straightforward way to capitalize on this trend, primarily driven by infrastructure spending and stable commodity prices [1] Group 1: ETF Overview - XLB holds 94.4% of its assets in materials, with Linde making up 13.42% of the portfolio, indicating a concentrated investment strategy [1] - The fund offers pure cyclical exposure to materials companies, making it a targeted bet on economic activity without diversification [1] - The performance of XLB is heavily influenced by a few key companies, particularly Linde, which can significantly impact returns due to its large share in the fund [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - Over the past year, XLB has delivered strong double-digit returns, benefiting from increased infrastructure spending and stable commodity prices [1] - The cyclical nature of materials companies means they perform well during economic expansions but may lag during downturns [1] - The fund's returns are closely tied to commodity prices and industrial activity, with higher demand leading to increased revenue and margins for materials companies [1] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investing in XLB entails trade-offs, including a lack of sector diversification, as underperformance in materials will affect the entire position [1] - The fund's performance is highly correlated with commodity prices, meaning fluctuations in oil prices or construction activity can compress margins [1] - XLB is best suited for tactical positions for investors seeking materials exposure without selecting individual stocks, particularly when economic conditions favor this sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has dropped 25.5% over the past month despite reporting a 70% total revenue growth and a 137% increase in U.S. commercial revenues, raising concerns about its high valuation and sustainability [1]. Revenue Growth - Palantir reported a total revenue growth of 70% and a 137% increase in U.S. commercial revenue for Q4 2025 [1]. Valuation Concerns - The company's stock trades at a P/E ratio exceeding 200 and a price-to-sales ratio of 68.77, leading to concerns about its valuation [1]. - UBS has reduced its price target for Palantir from $205 to $180 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing caution on valuation despite acknowledging the company's strong performance [1]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish, with notable discussions on Reddit highlighting concerns about insider selling, political risks, and extreme valuation multiples [1]. - Multiple executives sold shares during the stock's decline, with no insider purchases to indicate confidence at lower prices [1]. Political and Budget Risks - Investors are worried that shifting government spending priorities could threaten Palantir's 66% growth in U.S. government revenues, which heavily depend on Department of Defense contracts [1]. Technical Analysis - Palantir's technical chart shows an RSI of 31.35, indicating it is approaching oversold territory, yet analysts maintain a consensus price target of $176.38, suggesting a potential upside of 32.46% [1]. - The wide range of forecasts for Palantir's fair value, from $50 to $260, reflects significant disagreement among analysts [1]. Comparison with Peers - Snowflake, a peer in data analytics, trades at more modest multiples despite having a similar AI positioning, emphasizing Palantir's premium valuation [1].

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 17, after market close [1] - The company's adjusted earnings in the last reported quarter missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9% and declined 1.1% year over year, while total revenues exceeded the consensus mark by 3% and increased 2.7% from the prior year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has increased to $2.05 from $1.93 over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.1% [3] - The consensus estimate for total revenues is projected at $1.84 billion, reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year decline from $1.86 billion [3] Revenue Performance - Toll Brothers' top-line performance is expected to decline year over year due to ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. housing market, with weak homebuyer sentiment amid high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [4] - The company anticipates home deliveries to be between 1,800 and 1,900 units, down from 1,991 units delivered in the same quarter last year, representing a year-over-year decline of 7.3% [5] Pricing and Margins - The average selling price (ASP) of delivered homes is expected to be between $985,000 and $995,000, up from $924,600 in the year-ago quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 6.9% to an expected $988,200 [7] - The adjusted home sales gross margin is expected to be 26.25%, reflecting a contraction of 60 basis points year over year, while SG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenues are expected to rise to 14.2%, up 110 basis points year over year [11] Backlog and Market Conditions - The total backlog for the fiscal first quarter is expected to be 5,173 units, down 18% year over year, with potential revenues declining 13.2% to $6.02 billion [12] - The company faces challenges with housing delivery softness and margin mix pressures, alongside elevated SG&A expenses due to increased payroll, marketing, and insurance costs [10][9]

Core Insights - ZenaTech, Inc. integrates drone-based workflows into land surveying services for national homebuilders, enhancing speed, precision, and reliability in obtaining permits [1][3] - The company aims to reduce survey turnaround time from 10 days to 3 days or less through the incorporation of Drone as a Service and standardized processes from its acquired firm, Cardinal Civil Resources [2][3] Company Overview - ZenaTech specializes in AI drone technology, Drone as a Service (DaaS), enterprise SaaS, and Quantum Computing solutions, focusing on mission-critical applications across various sectors [6] - The company has expanded its capabilities through acquisitions, including Cardinal Civil Resources, which has a strong history of serving major U.S. homebuilders [5][6] Market Context - The U.S. homebuilding market is valued at over $1 trillion, driven by increasing demand for new homes and the need for efficient construction processes [3] - Delays in paperwork are significant challenges for residential builders, and ZenaTech's solutions aim to streamline the permitting process, thereby reducing construction cycle delays [3] Service Offerings - ZenaTech's Drone as a Service includes essential surveying tasks such as topography, plot plans, boundary validation, zoning compliance, and jurisdiction-specific formatting [3] - The integration of drones and proprietary software is designed to enhance operational efficiencies and reduce costs in the homebuilding sector [6] Upcoming Events - ZenaTech's Drone as a Service will showcase its innovations at the 2026 International Builders' Show (IBS) in Orlando, Florida, from February 17–19 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stock splits do not alter a stock's intrinsic value but tend to increase investor interest, often leading to a rise in stock prices post-announcement [1][2]. Group 1: Booking Holdings - Booking Holdings is the most likely candidate for a stock split among high-priced stocks, having previously executed a reverse stock split 23 years ago [5]. - As a consumer-facing business, Booking Holdings appeals to individual investors, making a forward split attractive as it would lower share prices and increase share count, enhancing affordability [6]. - Current market data shows Booking Holdings trading at $5,098.04 with a market cap of $164 billion and a gross margin of 97% [7]. Group 2: NVR - NVR, trading at $7,762 per share, is unlikely to announce a stock split due to its asset-light business model and a history of avoiding stock dividends [8]. - NVR has consistently outperformed the market but has no plans for a stock split in the near future [8]. Group 3: Seaboard - Seaboard operates in diverse sectors including pork production, grain processing, and maritime shipping, but its volatile business model makes it a less likely candidate for a stock split [9]. - The company has experienced double-digit revenue growth in three of the last five years, but negative results in the other two years raise concerns about the timing of a potential split [10].

Core Viewpoint - D.R. Horton, previously held by Berkshire Hathaway, is viewed as a strong investment opportunity following a recent decline in its stock price, despite Berkshire's exit from the position in Q3 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - D.R. Horton's current market capitalization is $46 billion, with a share price of $158.11, reflecting a daily change of 3.21% [3]. - The company has a gross margin of 23.27% and a dividend yield of 1.04% [3]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - There is an ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., with Goldman Sachs estimating a need for an additional 3 million to 4 million homes to balance supply and demand [3][4]. - Housing affordability remains a significant issue, but a gradual recovery is predicted to begin in 2026, which could positively impact D.R. Horton and other homebuilders [4]. Group 3: Company Strengths - D.R. Horton has been the largest homebuilder in the U.S. by volume for 24 years, operating in 126 markets across 36 states, with 63% of its customers being first-time homebuyers [5]. - The company has industry-leading access to land, controlling 445,000 lots and owning 145,500 lots as of the end of 2025, more than any other top 10 homebuilder [6]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - D.R. Horton has outperformed the S&P 500 in total returns over the last three, five, and ten years, ranking in the top quartile of S&P 500 stocks over the past decade [7]. - The company has reduced its number of outstanding shares by 20% over the last five years and increased its dividend by 125% during the same period, indicating strong management performance [8].