Hut 8 (NasdaqGS:HUT) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 25, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsAsher Genoot - CEOSean Glennan - CFOSue Ennis - Head of Investor Relations and Government AffairsSue EnnisGood morning, welcome to Hut 8's full year 2025 financial results conference call. Joining us today are our CEO, Asher Genoot, and our CFO, Sean Glennan. Following the presentation, we will open the line for questions. This event is being recorded, and a transcript will be made available on our website. In addit ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, natural gas and oil sales increased to $365 million, reflecting an 8% growth compared to Q4 2024 [6] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $222 million, or $0.75 per share, with adjusted EBITDAX at $277 million [7] - For the full year 2025, production averaged 1.2 Bcfe per day, a 14% decrease from 2024, but oil and gas sales rose by 15% to $1.4 billion due to improved natural gas prices [10][11] - Adjusted net income for 2025 was $160 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, compared to a net loss in 2024 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 2025 drilling program replaced 229% of production with 1 Tcfe of drilling-related proved reserve additions, achieving a finding cost of $1.02 per Mcfe [5] - In Q4 2025, four new Western Haynesville wells were brought online, increasing the total to 12 wells for the year, with an average initial production rate of 29 million cu ft per day [7][26] - The average lateral length for wells in the Legacy Haynesville was 11,738 ft, with an average initial production rate of 25 million cu ft per day [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average NYMEX settlement price for natural gas in Q4 was $3.55, with the average Henry Hub spot price at $3.69, approximately 4% higher [11] - Realized gas price during Q4 averaged $3.29, reflecting a basis differential compared to the NYMEX settlement price [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on building out its assets in the Western Haynesville to benefit from long-term growth in natural gas demand driven by LNG exports and data center power needs [37] - In 2026, the company expects to drill 19 wells and turn 24 wells to sales in the Western Haynesville, while also drilling 47 wells in the Legacy Haynesville [37] - The company aims to maintain the lowest producing cost structure in the industry and create additional drilling efficiencies [38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted the volatility in gas prices and the impact of weather on supply and demand dynamics, indicating flexibility in capital spending based on market conditions [50] - The company anticipates a growth in natural gas demand of about 3 Bcf annually through 2030, driven by LNG facilities and data centers [53] - Management expressed confidence in the potential of the Western Haynesville, estimating recoverable reserves could reach 99 TCF [39] Other Important Information - The company completed $445 million in divestitures in 2025, which improved its balance sheet and allowed for debt reduction [5] - The company has a liquidity of $1.3 billion, bolstered by successful property sales [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and capital spending flexibility - Management acknowledged the volatility in gas prices and confirmed the ability to adjust capital spending based on market conditions [50][52] Question: Scaling of the NextEra JV - Management indicated that the initial 2 GW capacity could scale to 8 GW based on demand, emphasizing the strategic location and infrastructure advantages [59] Question: Interest in Pinnacle Gas Services equity sell-down - Management confirmed plans to recapitalize Pinnacle Gas Services and eliminate preferred equity through common equity sales, aiming for completion by May [64][68] Question: Performance of specific wells - Management explained that the underperformance of the Brown Trueheart well was due to water production during flowback, affecting initial production rates [75] Question: M&A activity in the Haynesville - Management discussed the competitive landscape in M&A and the implications of recent transactions on their strategy, indicating a focus on maintaining business as usual while evaluating opportunities [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, natural gas and oil sales increased to $365 million, an 8% growth compared to Q4 2024, despite lower production [6][9] - The company generated $222 million of operating cash flow, or $0.75 per share, with adjusted EBITDAX of $277 million and adjusted net income of $46 million, or $0.16 per share [7][10] - For the full year 2025, production averaged 1.2 Bcfe per day, a 14% decrease from 2024, but oil and gas sales rose by 15% to $1.4 billion due to improved natural gas prices [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 2025 drilling program replaced 229% of production with 1 TCFE of drilling-related proved reserve additions, achieving a finding cost of $1.02 per MCFE [5][16] - In Q4 2025, the company turned 4 new Western Haynesville wells online, increasing the total to 12 wells for the year, with an average initial production rate of 29 million cubic feet per day [7][27] - The average lateral length of wells in the Legacy Haynesville was 11,738 feet, with an average initial production rate of 25 million cubic feet per day [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average NYMEX settlement price for natural gas in Q4 was $3.55, with the average Henry Hub spot price at $3.69, reflecting a 4% increase [11][12] - Realized gas prices during Q4 averaged $3.29, with a basis differential of $0.26 compared to the NYMEX settlement price [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on building out its assets in the Western Haynesville to benefit from long-term growth in natural gas demand driven by LNG exports and data center power needs [37][39] - A partnership with NextEra for a data center project aims to support hyperscaler development with an initial capacity of 2 gigawatts, potentially expanding to 8 gigawatts [5][38] - The company aims to maintain the lowest producing cost structure in the industry while striving for additional drilling efficiencies [39][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted the volatility in gas prices and the impact of weather on supply and demand dynamics, indicating flexibility in capital spending based on market conditions [51][54] - The company expects natural gas demand to grow by approximately 3 Bcf annually through 2030, driven by LNG facilities and data centers [54][56] Other Important Information - The company completed $445 million in divestitures in 2025, improving its balance sheet and reducing debt [5][6] - Total shareholder return over the last two years was 162%, the highest among public E&P companies [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and Capital Spending Flexibility - Analyst inquired about the capital budget's alignment with gas price expectations and the potential for adjusting capital spending based on market conditions [47] - Management confirmed the ability to flex drilling budgets and emphasized the importance of investing in production growth while maintaining flexibility [51][53] Question: NextEra Partnership and Data Center Project - Analyst asked about the scaling of the NextEra partnership from 2 GW to 8 GW and the advantages of selling to NextEra [57] - Management highlighted the strategic location and infrastructure advantages, indicating strong demand for the project [60] Question: Pinnacle Gas Services Recapitalization - Analyst questioned the recapitalization plan for Pinnacle Gas Services and its implications for funding and midstream ambitions [63] - Management outlined plans to eliminate preferred equity and establish a new credit facility to support growth [65][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, natural gas and oil sales increased to $365 million, an 8% rise compared to Q4 2024, despite lower production [5][9] - The company generated $222 million of operating cash flow, or $0.75 per share, with adjusted EBITDAX of $277 million and adjusted net income of $46 million, or $0.16 per share [6][10] - For the full year 2025, production averaged 1.2 Bcfe per day, a 14% decrease from 2024, but oil and gas sales rose by 15% to $1.4 billion due to improved natural gas prices [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company drilled 52 successful operated Haynesville Bossier wells with an average initial production (IP) rate of 27 million cubic feet per day [3][4] - The company turned 12 new Western Haynesville wells to sales in 2025, with an average lateral length of 8,399 feet and an average IP rate of 29 million cubic feet per day [6][26] - In the Legacy Haynesville, 35 wells were turned to sales in 2025, with an average lateral length of 11,738 feet and an average IP rate of 25 million cubic feet per day [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average NYMEX settlement price for natural gas in Q4 was $3.55, while the average Henry Hub spot price was $3.69, approximately 4% higher than the NYMEX price [11][12] - The company sold 27% of its gas in the spot market during the quarter, with a realized gas price of $3.29, reflecting a basis differential compared to the NYMEX settlement price [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on building out its assets in the Western Haynesville to benefit from long-term growth in natural gas demand driven by LNG exports and data center power needs [37][39] - A partnership with NextEra for a data center project aims to support hyperscaler development with an initial capacity of 2 gigawatts, potentially expanding to 8 gigawatts [4][38] - The company aims to maintain the lowest producing cost structure in the industry while enhancing drilling efficiencies to reduce costs further in 2026 [38][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatility in gas prices and indicated flexibility in capital spending based on market conditions [50][51] - The company expects to see a growth in natural gas demand of about 3 Bcf annually through 2030, driven by LNG facilities and data centers [53][55] - Management expressed confidence in the potential of the Western Haynesville, estimating recoverable reserves could reach 99 TCF [39][40] Other Important Information - The company completed $445 million in divestitures in 2025, improving its balance sheet and reducing debt [4][5] - The total shareholder return over the last two years was 162%, the highest among public E&P companies [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and Capital Spending Flexibility - Management confirmed that the capital budget was prepared in a more constructive gas environment and emphasized the ability to adjust capital spending based on gas prices [47][50] Question: NextEra Partnership and Data Center Project - Management discussed the potential scaling of the data center project from 2 GW to 8 GW, highlighting the demand for such infrastructure in Texas [56][58] Question: Pinnacle Gas Services Recapitalization - Management outlined plans to recapitalize Pinnacle Gas Services, including eliminating preferred equity and establishing a new credit facility [61][62]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily focuses on the energy sector, particularly independent power producers (IPPs), renewable energy, and energy storage solutions. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility has seen certain stocks drop by 15% to 20% without any negative news, attributed to a sharp decline in market risk appetite. [1] - The retail sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with January typically strong but February showing weakness, exacerbated by capital gains taxes. [1] Independent Power Producers (IPPs) - The IPP sector is currently viewed positively, with companies like Vista and Talon identified as top picks due to strong valuation support and attractive free cash flow yields. [3] - The demand growth in markets like Texas and PJM is outpacing supply, leading to a tight market environment. [3][4] - Political dynamics and affordability concerns are impacting the market, but the supply-demand imbalance is expected to support future price increases. [4] Transaction Activity - There is an expectation for continued transaction activity among IPPs, particularly as they offer unique advantages such as prime land and long-term contracts. [5][6] On-Site Power Generation - On-site power generation stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Liberty Energy expanding their power business significantly. [6] - The trend towards self-generation among data centers is expected to continue, providing opportunities for on-site power stocks. [8] Energy Storage - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the demand from data centers and utility-scale projects. [10] - The potential market size for data center energy storage is estimated to be between 225 to 550 GWh. [10] - Companies like Nxtra and AES are highlighted as key players in the energy storage sector. [10] Renewable Energy Projects - Utility-scale renewable energy projects are expected to maintain strong order volumes, with NextEra Energy reporting record orders. [14] - The solar industry is facing potential impacts from new tariffs and regulations, which could affect companies like First Solar. [22][24] Residential Solar Market - The residential solar market is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Enphase potentially reaching a bottom in their performance. [25][26] - The leasing model in residential solar is expected to provide more stable growth compared to companies focused on sales. [26] Bloom Energy - Bloom Energy is anticipated to provide strong revenue guidance for 2026, with expectations for significant order volumes. [28] Additional Important Insights - The discussion touches on the geopolitical implications of energy supply chains, particularly regarding reliance on Chinese imports for battery production. [12] - The potential for Tesla to enter the solar panel market is noted, with implications for competition in the solar industry. [16][23] - The conversation also highlights the importance of regulatory clarity in facilitating transactions in the energy sector. [5] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The power market is undergoing significant changes due to the rapid adoption of AI, leading to a premium on reliable power sources. This shift is particularly evident in the US, Japan, and Malaysia, which are at the forefront of implementing tiered power pricing systems [1][2][3]. Core Insights - **Tiered Power Pricing**: The global adoption of tiered power pricing is accelerating, benefiting both power generators and grids. High-load users, such as AI datacenters, are expected to pay more, which helps lower household bills and reduces regulatory risks [1][2]. - **Pricing Dynamics**: In Malaysia, datacenters are already paying 15-20% higher prices for power, while in the US, prices could increase by 30-40%. This pricing strategy aims to subsidize grid investments and protect residential consumers from costs associated with infrastructure upgrades [2][4]. - **Battery Storage**: The widening price differential between peak and off-peak power could incentivize datacenters to adopt battery storage solutions, allowing them to charge during low-demand periods and mitigate overall power costs [2][3]. Financial Implications - **Capacity Payments**: The demand for round-the-clock power from datacenters has reduced available generation capacity, leading to a significant increase in capacity payments in the PJM market, from US$29/MW-day to between US$270/MW-day and US$329/MW-day [3]. - **Cost Projections**: New generation costs could rise by approximately US$30/MWh, resulting in total prices for datacenters reaching around US$110-120/MWh, compared to the average of US$80-85/MWh [3]. Regional Developments - **Malaysia**: Regulators are implementing tiered pricing to support critical industries, with high-efficiency users potentially seeing a 5-13% reduction in bills, while ultra-high-voltage users like datacenters may face a ~14% increase [4][17]. - **Ireland**: The Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) has noted that datacenters' share of national electricity consumption rose from 5% in 2015 to 21% in 2023, prompting policy changes to ensure cost-reflective pricing for large energy users [14]. Stock Recommendations - Key global stock picks include EQT, Vistra, NextEra, Reliance, Adani Power, RWE, CATL, Tenaga, Korea Electric Power, Keppel Ltd, and Hokkaido Electric. These companies are positioned to benefit from the evolving power market dynamics [3][24]. Additional Insights - The introduction of "mega-load" riders and differentiated pricing structures for large users is becoming common across major power markets, reflecting a shift towards more tailored energy solutions [7][13]. - The expected expansion of spark spreads for power generators indicates a favorable outlook for companies involved in power generation, particularly those adapting to the new pricing structures [11][13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the transformative changes in the power industry and their implications for pricing, capacity, and investment opportunities.

NextEra is shifting focus from renewables to become an all-forms-of-energy company as it embraces both today's political reality and the call of AI, @liamdenning says (via @opinion) https://t.co/028Zbsex9w ...

Core Thesis - The AES Corporation presents a compelling contrarian investment opportunity in the U.S. utilities sector, with a recent share price decline creating an attractive entry point for investors [2] Valuation Metrics - As of November 28th, AES's share was trading at $14.06, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 9.25 and 6.09 respectively [1] - AES has a return on invested capital (ROIC) above 20%, with valuation multiples indicating deep discounts, including an EV/EBIT below 5 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio under 1 [3] Financial Health - The company's debt/EBITDA ratio remains below 2, indicating a manageable balance sheet and flexibility for ongoing development [4] - However, AES is experiencing negative free cash flow due to heavy capital expenditures for its renewables pipeline, which could be exacerbated by sustained high interest rates [4] Competitive Positioning - Compared to competitors like NextEra and Southern Company, AES offers superior return metrics at lower valuation levels, providing exposure to the energy transition without the premium typically associated with high-growth renewable platforms [5] - This valuation disconnect between operational strength and market pricing creates a differentiated opportunity for value-oriented investors [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for utility companies, with a focus on both high-growth and low-risk investment opportunities [8]. Core Insights - Data center electricity demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.5%-2.6% over the next decade, with significant potential remaining as many facilities are not yet fully operational [5][6]. - Utility companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditure plans, with Duke Energy forecasting a capital plan of $95 billion to $105 billion from 2026 to 2030, up from a previous plan of $87 billion over five years [6][8]. - The regulatory environment is crucial for the development of utility companies, with strict regulations impacting transmission investments, which typically offer higher returns [7]. Summary by Sections Data Center Demand - The report highlights that data centers are a key growth driver, with actual demand growth aligning with long-term forecasts [5]. - Many large data center facilities are still in the process of being fully operational, indicating further growth potential in the coming years [5]. Utility Companies' Capital Expenditure - Utility companies are optimistic about their capital expenditure outlook, with many raising their capital plans and corresponding earnings growth expectations [6]. - The average expected earnings growth for utility stocks rated as "buy" is projected at 9% over the next five years [6]. Regulatory Environment - The changing regulatory landscape may introduce increased risks and uncertainties for utility companies, particularly with recent shifts in state regulatory commissions [7]. - Customer bills in the PJM regional grid have risen by 15%-20% over the past year, prompting states to consider new procurement processes to manage costs [7]. Investment Strategies - Investors are adopting a "barbell" investment strategy, focusing on both high-growth companies like NextEra and Sempra, and lower-risk companies like Duke Energy, which is expected to see earnings growth of 7-8% [8]. - Companies with exposure to data center opportunities, such as Furtive, Flux, and Jabal, are highlighted as potential investment targets due to their growth potential in the AI data center space [14]. Supercomputing Trends - The report notes a 17% upward revision in performance forecasts for major hyperscale companies by 2026, necessitating substantial infrastructure investments [9]. - Prefabricated power and cooling solutions are being adopted to enhance installation efficiency and address labor shortages [10][11]. Cooling and Power Requirements - The increasing power levels of data center racks, now exceeding 100 kW, are creating new demands for power and cooling solutions [13]. - Companies are exploring liquid cooling technologies and high-voltage power supply options to meet future demands [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third-quarter GAAP earnings of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, which is an increase of $0.30 per share compared to the same period last year [6][19]. - The company experienced fewer nuclear outage days, both planned and unplanned, compared to the same period last year, contributing to higher generation volumes and lower O&M expenses [19][20]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 96.8%, which is approximately 4% higher than the industry average, equating to the output of an additional reactor on a full-year basis [22]. - The renewable and natural gas fleets performed near plan, with renewable energy capture at 96.8% and power dispatch match at 95.5% [22]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a strong performance in capacity revenues following the 2025-2026 capacity auction, with non-CMC units capturing almost all benefits from higher capacity prices [20]. - ZEC prices in both the Midwest and New York were lower compared to the third quarter of last year, impacting overall revenue [21]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on closing the Calpine transaction and integrating the two companies to enhance value for customers and shareholders [30]. - There is a strong public support for nuclear energy, with nearly three-quarters of the public supporting it and nine out of ten believing in extending licenses for existing plants [11][12]. - The company is exploring energy options for Maryland and the region, including a commitment to bring 835 megawatts through the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center [16][17]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to complete transactions in the data economy market, noting that customer sophistication has increased significantly [8][9]. - The company is optimistic about the future of nuclear energy, citing bipartisan support and recent government initiatives aimed at expanding nuclear capabilities [12][14]. - Management highlighted the importance of practical reforms to facilitate the interconnection of large loads to the grid, which is crucial for maintaining leadership in artificial intelligence [9]. Other Important Information - The company has reached a landmark agreement with the state of Maryland regarding the continued operation of the Conowingo Dam for the next 50 years [10]. - The company has executed a renewal and upsizing of its credit facilities, positioning itself for the close of the Calpine transaction with $14 billion of liquidity post-deal [27][28]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in announcing another hyperscale deal by year-end - Management is focused exclusively on front-of-the-meter deals and expects to complete transactions soon, potentially before the fourth quarter call [36][38]. Question: Potential delay in the Calpine asset sale process - Management feels confident about the timeline for divestiture and is not in a hurry to complete asset sales, as the market is supportive [49][51]. Question: Thoughts on power market dynamics and new entrants - Management sees significant growth in data center investments and believes the interest in new generation reflects a durable growth cycle [53][54]. Question: Update on Three Mile Island progress - Progress is going well, with critical items completed and no new challenges emerging [60][61]. Question: Impact of rising energy prices on contracts - Rising energy prices are favorable for the company, enhancing the environment for asset sales and contract negotiations [62][64]. Question: Specifics on natural gas capacity in Maryland - The company plans to relocate lightly used assets from the Midwest and New England to Maryland, which are state-of-the-art in terms of performance [72]. Question: Comfort level with new nuclear construction - Management remains cautious about new nuclear construction, emphasizing the need for durable PPAs and clear pricing before committing capital [73][76]. Question: Demand response initiatives and customer willingness - The company is seeing strong interest from industrial customers in demand response programs, with innovative product structures being developed [86][88]. Question: Retail margins in PJM - Retail margins are on the upper end of historical ranges, with stronger margins observed in sustainability-related products [90]. Question: Concerns about the ability to sign contracts for generation assets - Management is confident in executing transactions and believes that the demand response product offering anticipates market needs [96][98]. Question: Portfolio of generating assets for long-term PPAs - Management sees room for long-term deals and is focused on executing contracts to meet growing demand [105][106].