17 December 2025 | 5:55PM EST Equity Research AMERICAS CLEAN TECHNOLOGY: SOLAR 2026 Outlook: Potential re-rating on back of US power trends favors utility-scale fundamentals; ENPH up to Neutral as resi resets While solar/storage equities were plagued by policy uncertainty through the beginning of 2025, fundamentals appear to be back on a more stable growth trajectory heading into 2026 on the back of strong large-scale power demand trends in the US and one of the cleaner policy backdrops in some time. To tha ...

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 08 December 2025 Clean Energy 2026 Outlook: Back to Baseload Basics; Renewables Likely Consolidate Heading into 2026, we expect baseload power sources to remain top of mind for investors, though we expect the thematic trade to become more nuanced by individual stock fundamentals and valuation, rather than simply by exposure. Within renewables, we expect another year of outperformance for the utility-scale market, though we expect a trend towards larger, more com ...

Core Viewpoint - First Solar, Inc. has demonstrated strong financial performance and growth in the solar energy sector, with significant increases in revenue and stock performance, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [5][6]. Company Overview - First Solar, Inc. is based in Tempe, Arizona, and operates as a solar technology company providing photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, with a market cap of $22.6 billion [1]. - The company is categorized as a large-cap stock, reflecting its substantial size and influence in the solar industry [2]. Stock Performance - FSLR stock reached a 52-week high of $281.55 on November 5 and is currently trading 8.5% below that peak, having increased 25.6% over the past three months, outperforming the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLK) 11.5% gains [3]. - Year-to-date, FSLR stock has surged 46.2%, and over the past 52 weeks, it has increased by 30.2%, compared to XLK's 26.1% and 22.2% gains respectively [4]. Financial Results - Following the release of impressive Q3 results on October 30, FSLR stock prices soared 14.3%. The company sold a record 5.3 GW of energy during the quarter, leading to a 45.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.6 billion [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) grew 33.3% year-over-year to $4.24, and operating cash flows increased by 100.3% year-over-year to $815.2 million. As of September 30, First Solar had a contracted sales backlog of 53.7 GW, valued at $16.4 billion [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among the 32 analysts covering FSLR stock, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," with a mean price target of $268.51, suggesting a modest 4.2% upside potential [6].

Core Insights - Nextpower has announced the opening of an expanded Southeast regional hub and a new Remote Monitoring Center in Nashville, along with a significant increase in U.S. steel fabrication capacity [1] - The new fabrication line, operated by MSS Steel Tubes USA, will double Nextpower's manufacturing capacity for solar tracker systems, supporting utility-scale power plants across the Southeast [1] - The Southeast region added 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2024, bringing the total to nearly 28 GW, with projections to reach 54 GW by 2030 [1] Company Developments - Nextpower's expansion includes the addition of a new fabrication line that is expected to create 150 new jobs, building on the existing 120 skilled jobs at the facility [1] - The partnership with Silicon Ranch Corporation, which has installed over 4 GW of solar energy capacity, is crucial for supporting domestic manufacturing and meeting the increasing demand for electricity in the region [1] - The new Remote Monitoring Center will connect Nashville-based engineers to Nextpower solar tracker projects globally, enhancing operational efficiency [1] Industry Context - The expansion reflects a broader trend in the Southeast, where energy infrastructure is evolving to meet growing clean energy demands [1] - The collaboration between Nextpower and MSS Steel Tubes emphasizes a commitment to American manufacturing and the clean energy transition [1] - The Tennessee Chamber of Commerce highlights the economic momentum and job creation associated with Nextpower's investment in the region [1]

Core Insights - The average electricity price in the US has increased by 30% from $0.133 to $0.188 per kilowatt-hour since 2020, indicating a potential electricity crisis [1] Factors Driving Higher Energy Prices - Aging Electrical Grid: The US electrical grid is aging, and major upgrades are unlikely due to a significant fiscal deficit, leading to persistent grid issues [2] - Extreme Weather Events: Climate change has led to more frequent extreme weather events, exemplified by the 2021 Texas winter storm that left 2 million Texans without power [2] - Persistent Inflation: Although inflation has slowed since its peak in 2022, it continues to increase the costs of equipment and materials necessary for electricity generation [3] - EVs & AI Buildout: The rise in electric vehicle adoption and the expansion of AI infrastructure are significantly increasing electricity demand, with data centers expected to triple their electricity use by 2030, reaching 11.7% of total consumption [4] Energy Solutions and Investment Opportunities - Nuclear Energy: While nuclear energy is a clean and reliable option, it is not a short-term solution due to the lengthy construction time for new plants and regulatory challenges [8] - Natural Gas: Seen as a practical short-term solution, natural gas is expected to meet immediate energy needs during the AI revolution [9] - Bloom Energy: This company utilizes solid oxide fuel cell technology to produce cleaner electricity from natural gas, making it a viable investment opportunity [10] - Solar Energy: With decreasing costs, solar energy is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand driven by AI, making it a key player in the energy market [12] - First Solar: As a leading domestic solar provider, First Solar is expected to see significant growth, aided by the Inflation Reduction Act [13] - Nextpower: This company offers software and services that enhance the efficiency of solar projects, positioning it well for the upcoming electricity demand surge [14] Conclusion - The US is facing an accelerating demand for electricity, with early signs of a long-term power crisis. While nuclear energy presents a long-term solution, immediate investments are likely to focus on natural gas, advanced fuel cell technology, and solar energy [15]

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

Group 1 - Viking Holdings is approaching an early buy point, currently trading at $64.67, up 1.34% with a market cap increase of 18% [1][2] - The stock has rallied above its 50-day moving average following a recent earnings report, indicating positive momentum [1] - Viking Holdings has a Composite Rating of 85 out of 99 and is ranked 103 out of 197 in its industry group, suggesting strong performance relative to peers [1] Group 2 - The overall stock market is experiencing upward movement, with the Dow reaching record highs and tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft showing significant gains [4] - Carnival Corporation is noted for rising profit estimates, indicating potential earnings growth in the cruise line sector [4] - Other cruise line stocks, including Royal Caribbean, are also in or near buy zones, reflecting a positive trend in the industry [4]

Core Insights - Nextracker Inc. (NASDAQ:NXT) is recognized as one of the top sustainability stocks, with RBC Capital raising its price target to $96 from $93 while maintaining an Outperform rating [1] - The company's advancements in software and robotics are enhancing its position as a long-term partner in solar power plant management, leading to new steady revenue opportunities [1][2] Company Developments - Nextracker is transitioning from being viewed merely as a hardware manufacturer to a platform solutions vendor, fostering stronger client relationships [2] - RBC Capital anticipates continued growth in Nextracker's non-tracker orders through the fiscal third quarter of 2026, indicating robust demand [3] - The joint venture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to enhance sales growth and competitive positioning [3] Product Offerings - Nextracker provides various solar tracker technologies and solutions, including NX Horizon, NX Horizon-XTR, NX Horizon Hail Pro, NX Horizon Low Carbon, and TrueCapture [4]

Core Insights - T1 Energy Inc. reported significant advancements in its U.S. polysilicon solar supply chain, with expectations for increased production and sales in Q4 2025 [3][5] - The company is positioned as a domestic content leader, with ongoing construction plans for its G2_Austin facility and strategic partnerships to enhance its supply chain [3][6] Financial Performance - T1 Energy reported a net loss of $140.8 million, or $0.87 per share, for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $27.5 million, or $0.20 per share, in Q3 2024 [9][11] - The total net sales for Q3 2025 were $210.5 million, with a gross profit of $21.1 million [22] Production and Sales Expectations - The G1_Dallas production is expected to achieve a 4.5 GW annualized run rate in Q4 2025, more than double the average rate in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - Module sales in Q4 2025 are anticipated to exceed total sales from the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Capital Formation and Investments - T1 received $50 million from Encompass Capital Advisors LLC, which included the purchase of 21.5 million shares of common stock and 1.6 million shares of Series B preferred stock [5][7] - The company is advancing its G2_Austin project with a capital formation strategy that includes a $72 million registered direct equity offering [7] Strategic Partnerships - T1 signed a multi-year supply agreement with Nextpower to utilize patented steel module frame technology for G1_Dallas modules, promoting domestic manufacturing [6] - The company also made a strategic investment in Talon PV LLC, which is developing a 4.8 GW solar cell fab in Texas [6] Future Development Plans - The G2_Austin facility is expected to start construction in Q4 2025, with a phased development plan that includes a first phase of 2.1 GW capacity [10] - T1 aims to achieve a significant increase in production capacity to meet robust customer demand, with an estimated capital expenditure of $400 - $425 million for the first phase [10] Regulatory and Compliance Efforts - T1 supports the U.S. Commerce Department's investigation under Section 232 regarding foreign-sourced polysilicon, which may benefit the company through potential tariffs [10] - The company is also focused on ensuring eligibility for Section 45X tax credits in 2026 and beyond [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nextracker Inc. is experiencing significant selling pressure due to its plans to diversify from solar tracking to other technologies, resulting in an 8.81% drop in stock price to $96.50 [1][4]. Company Developments - Nextracker Inc. will change its name to Nextpower Inc. to reflect its transformation into a full-platform organization, while continuing to trade under the ticker symbol "NXT" [2]. - The new brand will offer a diverse product portfolio, including trackers, foundations, eBOS, advanced module frames, robotics, software, yield management and control systems, and services [2]. Financial Outlook - Nextracker reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook and set a revenue target of $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion by 2030, with approximately one-third expected from non-tracker products and services [3]. - The CFO expressed confidence in Nextpower's growth trajectory, emphasizing continued top-line growth, cash generation, and disciplined operational efficiency [4].